Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
In the theoretical world of video poker, every set of one million hands on a game returning 99.54% will return 99.54% because that's what the math says should happen theoretically with all other things being equal.

Now, let's talk about the first time visitor who walks into a casino, sees a bank of machines with a sign that says "these pay more than 100%" and sits down and puts $20 in a 25-cents machine and hits a thousand dollar royal on that positive expectation game. Would you suggest to them to keep playing? Or would you suggest to them to take the money and go to the pool/show/buffet/club? And why would you make that suggestion?

I'll start: I'd tell them that if they want to go home with all of that money to quit now and go home a winner and have a great time in Vegas doing other things. But if they want to play some more, play at your own risk. They just beat the odds "big time" by hitting the big one and they might lose it all if they keep playing even on those machines advertised to pay more than 100%.
Alan,

I don't know if you are trolling me and everyone else on the forum to increase traffic or not...

You seem like a highly intelligent guy, so I don't understand why you seem to be misinterpreting this example.

If you were to play the same hands as an AP player or any type of player for that matter in the same order, wouldn't you end up with the same results as that player unless you made different holds? When you start and stop playing would not matter because you will eventually play the same hands in the same order. When you think about it, that is exactly what the casinos are doing. They don't care if it's you or any one else playing their machines with a negative EV. The overall net result of all play on that machine will be in their favor.

Perhaps what you view as winning is the question here. In the example I started this thread with, let's say the AP player plays these 1 million hands perfectly and ends up with a loss of 0.46% of his total coin in. Let's assume it's $1 VP (99.54% as you've stated) so he has a total coin in of $5 million and loses 0.46% or $23,000.

Since you are playing those exact same 1 million hands in the same order wouldn't you too end up down $23,000? Sure, along the way you could stop when you won a certain amount or lost a certain amount, but the end result would be the same. With the win goals and loss limits you may be able to celebrate more often with "wins" and pat yourself on the back more often when you walk away without losing any more than a pre-determined amount, but in the end, all of your play added together would still result in a $23,000 loss.

So what do you view as winning? Being an overall net winner when all of your play is added together, or having several winning sessions or limited losses regardless of what the sum total of all your play has yielded?

By the way, I'm still curious to see whose system you would endorse with your own money if you had to choose.