Originally Posted by
Rob.Singer
Let's apply some data to your theory. Are you asserting 150 sessions, where the player plays between 1 minute and 15 hours/session, is long term or short term?
(is this your final number, I mean you have dropped down from recently saying 200 sessions and then 150-200 sessions. Are you now sticking with the lower end 150" Or just for this argument?)
So anyway, is 150 sessions as you just described longterm or short-term? I don't know the answer to that. In blackjack some of the math guys claim you need many millions of rounds of data, 10 million, 100 million, even a billion to derive any meaning from (especially in terms of simulations). That is nonsense. It doesn't take that many trials before the math
begins to take over and luck and positive variance
begin to take a back seat.
What that number is I don't know. I have my own number for blackjack that I am comfortable that my results are going to fall very, very close to expectation and that is about 2 years of play for me maybe 150,000 to 160,000 rounds. I am quite sure few would agree with this number. What that number is in specifics to video poker, I am even less sure.
Originally Posted by
Rob.Singer
Next, what is the mathematical reason why the math geniuses, complete with Mensa diplomas et al, were unwilling to bet that I could both win at least 8 out of 10 sessions, as well as net at least a $25k profit? I say "mathematical reason" because atheists know no other way.
This is an easy one. No one will bet that because it is a bad bet. THIS is what a progression system does. It changes the distribution of wins and losses so that you do have many smaller wins, like 8 out of 10 (80%). But it
can not change the overall win or loss, just how they are grouped. Eventually there has to be that large loss that wipes away all those smaller wins plus some. It is just mathematical fact.
I know you will not accept this, but you just cannot extend short term variance into long-term results. The best and simplest example I can continue to give is that it is very possible to walk into a casino bet black on roulette, win 2 out of 3 for that day and leave. But you simply cannot do that for 100 days and expect the same result. Just impossible!