Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
Ron, a "session" consisting of denominational and bet switching (along with one or more VP themes/variants) can be broken down into its constituent components where each component consists of the same bet size, theme, and denomination (and same pay table). Since it has already been established that the constituent components cannot win at the 85% clip that you claim (a success rate of 61% was established for the 8/5 BP component of the switching "session"), then it follows that the aggregate of these constituents which form the denominational switching "session" in total also cannot win at this 85% clip (I'd imagine somewhere in the 60-65% range). The bet that you won't take is one where you don't lose money after playing one million hands using your system. The 61% of your "sessions" that win will make less money in total than the 39% of your sessions that lose resulting in a net loss - again you would never take such a bet.
You haven't proven anything with your contrived and misrepresented "61%" guess. You have no idea what the correct data is to begin with. "$1 8/5 BP" all day long combined with "progressive betting (up or down or both??) means you "might win more sessions, but for me to feel good about this I have to add that you will have BIGGER losers too".

Then that dealer-turned-big-time-7 Stars AP, RS__, chimes in with his goofy support. Only critics like you two could talk yourselves into being mathematical analysts by guessing at what the data and parameters really are.
The Kane/Nestor bug was a major threat to casinos so Casinos disabled double-up on vulnerable machines even though only a small number of people knew about the bug. A small number of people know about your system, and yet -EV VP is still available to play all over the place - the casinos didn't decide to eliminate it. Gee I wonder why ? I already explained that denominational and theme switching is a composition of flat bet same-themed mini-"sessions" (that have no chance of an 85% win rate), which, when combined, form the overall "session" but naturally you ignored that point. You state a -EV betting and theme system can be profitable - the burden of proof is on you, not me.
Again, for KJ's benefit, I will state that I do not believe Rob has a legit VP system that is a long term loser with both short term and long term -EV. If Rob is ahead then it seems obvious Rob has not played it enough yet he thinks he has therefor he remains confident it works given his personal sample size(is that called confirmation bias?.) I think that he really doesn't keep track very well and only notices when he wins big and forgets all the small losses.

Tableplay, I find it never I have to disagree with something you say. I would think the casinos are going to do whatever is most beneficial to them. There would be no logical reason not to fix a bug that IGT is responsible for if the cost if of doing so and the time it takes makes sense. In this case, it seems as if it did make sense. Also, they might be in violation of the law knowingly allowing machines like this not to be fixed.