Four Queens June Promotion

[smurgerburger]

Ur math is wrong because u didn't factor in also playing 2x odds on both sides as well....like I said $520 not $1100

When factoring in 2x odds (assumes live craps rules) I get an expected loss of $-416.67. Please see the spreadsheet snapshot below for more details. Note that on average, 1500 spins are required for ten dollars on both sides, plus the odds bet for each side on the next roll if a point is made. So it must have taken a while (even entering each roll with a come and don't come followed by odds bet placements on the next roll if a point is made instead of waiting for passline resolution) and you have excellent dexterity putting down the bets on each station and their odds on each station (if a point is made) about 1500 times (plus the fraction of times a point is made) within 15 seconds each time with no mistakes.

Is your tone meant to imply that you think he's making it up? Just go to a casino and try it yourself if you don't think it's feasible.

[tableplay]

Is your tone meant to imply that you think he's making it up?

No it isn't. It was meant as a compliment. It's no different than video poker - except you memorize the odds for each point for the come and don't side (as opposed to the appropriate discards) and then put them down by rote. The only difference is they must be laid down within 15 seconds, video poker has no time constraint and you are only working one screen in vp, even though usually you are going much faster than 15 seconds in VP. I'm not going to go to the casino and try this unless there is a promo in my area which would make it worthwhile (meaning the bubble craps has to give significant points and the value of the free play also being significant) - in which case I think it is a great game to grind out the requirements with. Is my loss estimate of $416.67 incorrect ?

[FABismonte]

I did bet both sides

Did anyone give you any hassles since you were betting two bubble craps stations? Or did you have a friend who worked the other one?

[tableplay]

I did bet both sides

Did anyone give you any hassles since you were betting two bubble craps stations? Or did you have a friend who worked the other one?

After I did this in Sparks a couple years ago, the next day there was a sticker (cut-out rectangle of tape with black type on it) on each station that had the words "One Station Per Player" written on it. This place had their Aruze machine set up so that you could not hedge the don't and come on the same station. It is possible that the 4 queens is set to allow it - Ron can chime in on this if he wants or someone else that has worked both sides there.

[TeflonRon]

Ur 416 number is correct...but I only did the full 2x odds on the don't side and then adjusted the pass odds to where I would break dead even every roll as long as no 12 came and it I played the max bet allowed of 25$ each way every single roll and it still took over 7 hours

[TeflonRon]

You couldn't hedge on one machine so I had to play 2 but nobody bothered me

[tableplay]

Ur 416 number is correct...but I only did the full 2x odds on the don't side and then adjusted the pass odds to where I would break dead even every roll as long as no 12 came and it I played the max bet allowed of 25$ each way every single roll and it still took over 7 hours

Great stuff Ron. Since the odds multiplier on these Aruze bubble craps machines are settable, I thought I would also post the full 2x odds (2.5x odds on the 6 and the 8 versus 2x odds on the 6 and 8 posted previously) to supplement the 2x odds setting I posted previously for forum members who have access to these machines on these settings (I think I remember reading somewhere that there are higher odds settings than these which I've never seen - if someone wants me to post higher odds settings than these, let me know):

[TeflonRon]

The machine won't let u do 2.5x odds on 6 n 8...no matter what the point is the max odds on either side is exactly 2x your flat bet

[PIGGY BANKER]

Can we get the Cliff Notes for playing the promo using the bubble craps with two people and the expected return, thank you.

[smurgerburger]

For that amount of time you'd be better off playing full pay $1 VP.

[tableplay]

For that amount of time you'd be better off playing full pay $1 VP.

Depends on how much you hate variance. Obviously Ron is not a big fan of it.

[tableplay]

The machine won't let u do 2.5x odds on 6 n 8...no matter what the point is the max odds on either side is exactly 2x your flat bet

Got it Ron, thanks. So, as you wrote in your earlier post, let the don't odds bet (2x the don't pass/come bet) drive the size of the come side odds bet for the perfect hedge and churn. So below is a breakdown of how Ron got to -$520 EV (before promo is cashed of course) - just showing the math for the curious:

[unowme]

The machine won't let u do 2.5x odds on 6 n 8...no matter what the point is the max odds on either side is exactly 2x your flat bet

Got it Ron, thanks. So, as you wrote in your earlier post, let the don't odds bet (2x the don't pass/come bet) drive the size of the come side odds bet for the perfect hedge and churn. So below is a breakdown of how Ron got to -$520 EV (before promo is cashed of course) - just showing the math for the curious:

That looks perfect. Thank you for doing that. I'm surprised they give rewards club points on full odds, but they must have just figured it into the 20 - 1 ratio. I don't think they include any odds bets when they're calculating your live table play. It's like average bet per hand without odds for X Hours.

[tableplay]

Thank you for doing that.

Sure no problem.

[TeflonRon]

Most live craps games give zero credit for odds bets

[smurgerburger]

The machine won't let u do 2.5x odds on 6 n 8...no matter what the point is the max odds on either side is exactly 2x your flat bet

Got it Ron, thanks. So, as you wrote in your earlier post, let the don't odds bet (2x the don't pass/come bet) drive the size of the come side odds bet for the perfect hedge and churn. So below is a breakdown of how Ron got to -$520 EV (before promo is cashed of course) - just showing the math for the curious:

That looks perfect. Thank you for doing that. I'm surprised they give rewards club points on full odds, but they must have just figured it into the 20 - 1 ratio. I don't think they include any odds bets when they're calculating your live table play. It's like average bet per hand without odds for X Hours.

I missed that, what's the 20:1 ratio you're referring to here?

[unowme]

Got it Ron, thanks. So, as you wrote in your earlier post, let the don't odds bet (2x the don't pass/come bet) drive the size of the come side odds bet for the perfect hedge and churn. So below is a breakdown of how Ron got to -$520 EV (before promo is cashed of course) - just showing the math for the curious:

That looks perfect. Thank you for doing that. I'm surprised they give rewards club points on full odds, but they must have just figured it into the 20 - 1 ratio. I don't think they include any odds bets when they're calculating your live table play. It's like average bet per hand without odds for X Hours.

I missed that, what's the 20:1 ratio you're referring to here?

Play aruze bubble craps at 20$ per point and your expected loss for 4000 pts is $520....I just did it last week and mine ended up a little more than that but n ot much

[tableplay]

You couldn't hedge on one machine so I had to play 2 but nobody bothered me

Now they won't need to concern themselves at all (IOW we're screwed):

[AxelWolf]

You couldn't hedge on one machine so I had to play 2 but nobody bothered me

Now they won't need to concern themselves at all (IOW we're screwed):

that thing looks absolutely ridiculous. I'm having some HR puff-N-stuff flashbacks.

To be honest this is actually probably a good thing since places might actually think it's safe to add full club privileges to them. And it will keep the scufflers away because of the variance and bankroll requirements creating longer-lasting Advantage play situations.

[tableplay]

I'm having some HR puff-N-stuff flashbacks.

And McDonaldland flashbacks (Mayor MCcheese,Hamburglar, etc.)

To be honest this is actually probably a good thing since places might actually think it's safe to add full club privileges to them.

Well they must know the THEO/HE (1.4%) on these things, so I'm guessing they would treat it like VP (so on a case by case basis depends on how each casino treats VP - as you know some give half-points or no points for VP versus slots). Also, the coin-in will be way slower than VP even bringing in new bets with come/don't come after pass/don't pass. There's still moves you can make by hedging the pass/don't pass (come/don't come) with place/lay bets I guess.

Anyway I hope you're right.