Geez, is there anybody that really believes the popular vote will be in question?Originally Posted by redietz
The democrats will win the popular vote, no matter who the candidate and probably by more than 2016 which was what 3 million after all the votes were counted.
The only thing in question, in my mind is if Trump can patch together just enough to thread the needle to a slim electoral college victory, mirroring 2016.
I don't bet online. I don't trust any online sites. Nevada doesn't take bets on politics and I probably wouldn't be crazy about tying up funds for 15 months anyway. But if I was going to bet on the 2020 election, I would bet on the democrats. I am talking strictly bet, not who I favor. Frankly, I haven't found anyone among the democrats I could vote for and don't care for any Democratic positions I have heard so far. And if reparations is part of the democratic platform, I will not only not vote for a democrat this time, but will never again consider a democrat for anything. I am strongly against paying people for something that happened hundreds of years ago. Nobody a live today is responsible for that shitty chapter of our history. It is just a thinly veiled way of trying to buy the support of the blacks.
Now just as a political junkie, no super partisan like some here, I see real trouble on the horizon for the republicans and TRump in 2020 and reaching far beyond.
Texas is an immediate danger that could alter things for a very long time. The Latino population is growing super fast. Projections now say that there will be more Latino voters by 2022 than white voters in Texas. For a while they have been saying this was coming, and Trump seems to have feuled a high voter registration of Latinos in the last year and it now looks like it will be sooner than expected. This is real bad news for Republicans far beyond 2020. If Texas flips, whether 2020, or 2024 or when ever the Republicans are going to have to "find" a whole lot of electoral votes to make up for that to be competitive. I have no idea where?
More specific to 2020, Trump is down big time in support for one key group. White suburban women. He is down all over with that group from 2016 levels, but Texas the drop off is severe. He is down about 25 points. White suburban women have different priorities. And polling indicates this group in particular is extremely turned off by separations of families and the whole children in cages situation. And the women in Texas have seen that constantly being in their own backyard. I don't know how Trump turns that around.
One other real bad sign for Trump is that traditionally and incumbent, president, senator, who has support of 46% or less in the polls, loses like 99% of the time. Even if they are winning like 46% to 40% with a bunch of undecided (which Trump isn't). The common wisdom is that voters know who the incumbent is, and none more so that Trump. If they know him/her and their policies and aren't supporting then, they aren't going to break for them at the end. Traditionally, undecided break against an incumbent that is at 46% or lower. 46% is the key number. I don't know why. Trump is well below 46% and has been every single day of his presidency.
But there are two possible saving graces for Trump. One would be a fairly strong third candidate. Not a 1 or 2% candidate, but someone that gets 5-6%. That could allow someone like trump that has 45-46% support enough to thread that electoral college needle, if things fall JUST right.
The second thing that could change and likely will change some, is there is no democratic candidate right now. Polls are just a reflection of Trump. Even polls showing a specific matchup like Biden vs Trump. At this point, it is just a reflection of Trumps unpopularity. I wouldn't put much meaning in that until someone is officially the democratic candidate. I mean suppose a Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren becomes the democratic candidate. All of the sudden you might have some folks that don't approve of Trump finding they like Bernie or Liz even less.
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