Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
A member of this forum was actually watching me play,
Maybe more than one member of this forum....who knows.

Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
I find it hard to believe that everyone who put in a decent amount of time all came out ahead. However, that doesn't matter. If they keep putting time in playing positive expectation plays they will end up in the black.
Positive expectation doesn't mean you come out on top in the short run or a small trial size. I know you know this Axel....I am just saying.

I am not sure you can always trust AP's when it comes to their results on these promotions. I tend to trust people that have built up some credibility with me and that I find credible with their longer term results if they share any, but with short term results, like a promotion, no one wants to admit they were the ones on THAT side of the bell curve.

Reminds me of a blackjack promotion in Connecticut about 10 years ago. I forget if it was Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun. I want to say Mohegan Sun. I also forget the exact promotion. It had to do with doubling down I think. Like you could double down for more money, maybe triple down on first 2 cards. Whatever it was the game was +EV off the top.

So this promo was for 1 day. A 24 hour period running midnight to midnight. I took the train up as I always did when visiting either Connecticut casino, arriving probably about 10:30 pm. The place was packed. Not a seat to be had on a weekday night. It was pretty much a card counter convention. I eventually got a seat, maybe 1 am. And almost immediately started getting my ass kicked. I was like losing every double down opportunity. By 6am I was down more than 5 figured which was a lot for me at the time, and I was realizing I might not have brought enough money.

During the course of the morning and early afternoon, things turned and I slowly clawed back to even. I think I was in the black for a short time late in the afternoon. And then early evening, I went backwards again. I quit around 8pm as I was tired and wanted to catch the last train out. I was down a few thousand I forget.

So in the days after on the blackjack forums, not a single person admitted to losing except me. Everyone made a fortune. I was apparently the only player that lost. Highly unlikely.