In my opinion, most of the posters have been slowly understanding the issue of expectation versus probability. Or at least, understanding the veteran experience on this forum versus new individuals.

For myself, the argument is best explained by a sinusoidal wave diagram. If you view it from the eyes of a casino, and adjust the parameters for realistic numbers, you would have KJ's standard expectation at the top of the apex and Rob's number at the nadir. I will not put Rob's number off the graph but, to be fair, if his number is on the graph then the apex could be as much as a 50 percent loss. Both can happen.

In AndrrewG's terms, it is like a one person committing suicide with a gun on 5th Avenue versus a headless and handless body found in the East River with no identifiable markings. Some items have an easy answer and some are difficult to process.

KU knows, I follow the math. But anything is possible. I think this is fair example regarding expectations. Each individual can decide where the position of the claims belong but it would satisfy that a good probability is covered. You can decide where it belongs on the graph.

I have lightning striking twice at the same place, a beautiful woman loving an engineer, and everyone agreeing on this forum, at the nadir. The first item has happened. With God's blessing, the other two can occur.

Oh crap, I see bold typeface and a response from BoSox in my future.