Originally Posted by
kewlJ
Originally Posted by
kewlJ
Rob's claim contradicts the mathematics. He is talking about unusual short term results being repeated over and over but it just doesn't work that way. At some point (long-term) the math kicks in and cannot be defied.
The best example of this continues to be Roulette. While the math says Black should hit what 40-something % of the time (50% less the 1 or 2 green), it is very possible to walk in bet black 3 times and win 2 (67% win rate) or bet 5 times and win 3 or 4 (60 and 80% win rate) or even bet 10 times and win 7 (70% win rate).
Let's go with bet 5 and win 4. You would have some artificial above expectation short term win rate of 80% (4 out of 5 trials). I'll bet this happens every day in every casino. Maybe every hour. That is a short term result above expectation which is known as variance. But you simply cannot do this day after day for a hundred days. After 100 days and 500 trials you will not be hitting at 80%.
And this is exactly what Rob's claim is that he can defy the math and hit 4 out of 5, over and over and over. It simply defies the math.
Again you lie and don't want to see it.
I never say I defy the math. You are the one who does that with your uneducated, closed mind.
What Andrew seems to be saying is that if one roll of the dice has a 1 in 6 chance of coming up with X, every subsequent and previous roll does also. He therefore deduces that this short term EV never changes no matter how many rolls occur and how much time has elapsed. A roll of the dice, a flip of the cards, the spin of a ball. That is, essentially, how the theoretical long term is reached. Most games fall into this category. Video poker, played the way I play it, does not.
Why not? Well, if you play vp the way most ap's approach it with that grind-away mentality, there absolutely is a long term somewhere down the long road ahead. No one can precisely define it, but I see it as the day a person stops playing forever. So it is a different amount of time and hands for everybody.
Not so with my play strategy....which irritates kew no end because he hasn't the capacity to figure it out. The "Law of Large Numbers" (which kew likes to present as his pet knowledge because he read it in some book somewhere) requires unaltered input on a continuous basis. The argument in such a case can be made for the math becoming predictable somewhere reasonable down the line.
In SPS videopoker with each and every session, the procedural changes, volatility changes, variance changes, and ER changes obliterate any chance of this type of play EVER entering anything remotely resembling the long term. No one in today's environment could live aslong or play as MN any hands as that would take, and even then, it's very possible and highly probable that the results would STILL be in the positive.
Read the right books kew, then come back with something other than agitation, theory, and emotion.