Is this the ULTIMATE casino ADVANTAGE play??

[Alan Mendelson]

Harrah's Rincon has just sent out its January promotion book that includes coupons, free play awards, and promotions. In it is something that really got my attention and makes me as IS THIS THE ULTIMATE CASINO ADVANTAGE PLAY?

Here's the offer (and Bob Dancer pay attention because it's more than a car):

On December 31, 2013 -- about a year from now, New Year's Eve, Harrah's Rincon will award one lucky player ONE MILLION DOLLARS in cash. The player will be drawn in a random drawing but entries in the random drawing will be based on "tier points" earned throughout 2013 starting on January 1, 2013. The more tier points you have, the more entries you have.

Plus tier points earned on Tuesdays will earn triple entries -- so if you earn one tier point on a Tuesday you will get three entries.

So, the more you play the more entries you get. While there are no positive expectation games at Rincon there are a few that come very close plus coupled with the normal Total Rewards comps AND Rincon's free play and cash back there are several games including Super Aces Bonus video poker and even 8/5 Aces and Faces Bonus Poker that could give a player a theoretical positive return. Now, add in the million dollars drawing.

But wait... there's more (as we like to say in the Infomercial business)!!

On the last Saturday of each month there will be separate drawings, every hour from 1-PM to 10-PM, and each hour five guests will win $1,000 of free play.

But wait... there's more!!

At 11pm on the last Saturday of each month one player will win $50,000 cash. Again these drawings are based on entries from tier points.

Harrah's Rincon is advertising that there is more than $2 million to win from this promotion.

So if you are on the few better paying video poker games -- and if you play better edge games such as blackjack and sticking to low edge bets at craps -- IS THIS THE ULTIMATE CASINO ADVANTAGE PLAY?

And will Bob Dancer be relocating to Southern California??

[Rob.Singer]

The big question is: Is this more of an "advantage play" than that slot machine rope-'em-in fiasco he was compelled to play two months ago? But yes, I'd have to say he'll either relocate to S. Calif., or will prepare an obscure mathematical excuse as to why he can't jump on this "strong" play.

[Alan Mendelson]

Here's why a high roller will probably find this enticing:

1. There are $100 vp machines returning at least 99.2%
2. There is free play based on coin in (figure as much as 0.1% of coin in being returned as free play)
3. There is cash back which comes in the form of more free play (figure as much as 0.2% of coin-in being returned as free play)
4. All hotel and food charges will be covered by comps
5. Playing at the "high roller" level will no doubt offer even more comp credits which could be converted to gift cards and gas cards as well as marketable merchandise

In addition to the million dollar drawing at the end of the year, the high rollers also have their chance to dominate the monthly drawings which include $50,000 of cash plus free play.

And there is no telling what other fringe benefits high rollers would get during their visits. High rollers will dominate the drawings.

[Rob.Singer]

That's all correct, but I remember Dancer saying his gambling bankroll barely gets him to the $25 and five-play $5 machines according to whatever formula he uses for risk of ruin. But this is a slick marketing move by the casino, as they know they'll reel in multiple big time gamblers. It also shows that no matter what the "theoretical" anywhere, the casino always wins out and knows in advance they will always win out, over AP's barring unexpected and extreme good luck on the player's part. Always.

[Alan Mendelson]

the casino has already stated its maximum liability by announcing the specific jackpots it will give away. Now it has a whole year to get enough players in to play what are mostly all negative expectation games. The only people who could come out ahead making this play are the "high rollers" who would dominate the few nearly positive payback games in the small high limit area and can do this because of combined free play, cash back and comps that they will get on the $100 machines.

Remember, that Rincon does attract high roller advantage players from time to time when the $5 DDB progressive "gets up there." In the past year it reached $80,000 (so I was told, I did not see it) and two years ago I was there when it was hit for $70,000.

As far as Dancer's bankroll: About five, six or seven years ago I was at the Fiesta North for one of his lectures and at the time he said he was only playing triple line $25/coin deuces for $375 per push of the button. Well that was five, six or seven years ago....

[Rob.Singer]

Yes he did say that I'm sure, but he also said, albeit without thinking first and in a moment of temporary euphoria, that he & his wife went to that $100 machine where they hit that $400k royal, without the proper bankroll after making an undisciplined move to higher limits. He even wrote in an article about how he didn't even have the bankroll to be playing the $25 machine, and was turned down by several people he begged to go in with him in order to have the overall proper bankroll since the MGM had some "positive play" offer going. He was all over the map, but it all became moot a year later when his father died and left him a little over a million dollars. Shirley's parents told me that while we were all waiting to be seated in the bar at the Hickory Pit restaurant at the Edgewater in Laughlin.

[Alan Mendelson]

I want to add to this, after responding to a comment on another Forum:

5. Playing at the "high roller" level will no doubt offer even more comp credits which could be converted to gift cards and gas cards as well as marketable merchandise

These high rollers will no doubt generate substantial comp points over and above anything needed to pay for their hotel and food. I suggested originally that they could use these extra comp points to buy gift cards or merchandise. But they could also use the extra comp points to buy "free play" and the free play has a multiplier effect -- because all "coin in" whether it is real dollars or free play dollars is used to generate more comp points and more free play.

And there will also, I am sure, be extra incentives for the high rollers... and I think this could well be a positive play for them even before the monthly cash drawings or the big drawing for a million at the end of the year.

As I also noted, I don't think Rincon cares who wins this promotion -- a high roller or a penny slot player (as unlikely as that seems). Rincon has a limited liability here -- they already announced what their liability is. Now they want as many players as possible to compete -- and the more competitors, the greater the casino's profits, because the two million in prizes is already "on the books."

Unfortunately for everyone else who plays, the winners of the drawings are likely to be those few high rollers who dominate those $100 machines with the better VP paytables and especially if they play on Tuesdays with triple entries.

[arcimede$]

Dancer mentioned on another forum that he did not know Rob Singer. Yet, here we have Singer claiming they were together at a dinner. Curious?

[OceanCityMD]

Dancer couldn't have inherited a million from Dad. In his book he said Dad was giving it to a charity.

[Rob.Singer]

Dancer mentioned on another forum that he did not know Rob Singer. Yet, here we have Singer claiming they were together at a dinner. Curious?

Learn to read other than what's on a prescription. I said I met SHIRLEY'S PARENTS.

[arcimede$]

Learn to read other than what's on a prescription. I said I met SHIRLEY'S PARENTS.

Yeah right, that's why Dancer knows nothing about you. Your lies are getting so obvious and so desperate you are looking like a little kid crying for his mommy.

[Alan Mendelson]

Let's do a little fact checking here. First, Rob posted this:

Shirley's parents told me that while we were all waiting to be seated in the bar at the Hickory Pit restaurant at the Edgewater in Laughlin.

And Arc responded with this:

Dancer mentioned on another forum that he did not know Rob Singer. Yet, here we have Singer claiming they were together at a dinner. Curious?

And Rob responded with this:

Learn to read other than what's on a prescription. I said I met SHIRLEY'S PARENTS.

And Arc responded with this:

Yeah right, that's why Dancer knows nothing about you. Your lies are getting so obvious and so desperate you are looking like a little kid crying for his mommy.

Now, I never had dinner with Shirley, if I ever sat next to Bob Dancer in a casino I probably wouldn't recognize him even though I did go to one of his lectures about six, seven or eight years ago, and I never met Arc, and I've never been to Laughlin, and I've never played One Eyed Jacks, and I still don't understand SPS...

but it seems to me that right here we have a good example of how World Wars are started because misstatements or misreadings of statements escalate. Happy New Year to everyone.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well, getting back to the original subject: this "play" at Rincon.

Over on LVA the idea of trying this got slammed because it wasn't demonstrated to be an upfront positive play from the get-go because the 8/5 Aces and Faces machines return 99.26% and they used data from VP Free, I guess, that shows the free play were less than what I had estimated. Well, I estimated the free play and cash back (also free play) based on my experience and honestly I don't know how current VP Free's data is.

But the promotion on the face of it, without hitting the monthly drawings for $50K or the year end drawing for one million dollars, isn't too bad compared to others that have been hyped by some columnists. And, what's so wrong with playing for this promotion on Tuesdays for triple entries plus having a house edge of less than half-percent whether you use my estimates for free play and comps and cash back or you use the VP Free figures that the LVAers point to?

If a high roller cycled through ten million dollars his theoretical loss would be less than $50,000 without hitting one of the drawings. He would dramatically improve his chances for winning by playing only on Tuesdays, and by being sure he was there on the last Saturday of each month plus New Year's Eve for the actual drawings. By playing on Tuesdays, he would have 3-million entries. ($10-million coin-in equals 1-million tier points which are tripled for Tuesday play.)

By the way, there aren't many players who get one million tier points in a year. That alone puts the player at a tremendous advantage.

Now for those who still think the one-half of one percent house advantage (edge) is still too much, I just want to point out that Bob Dancer with all of his money (and Rob, I do not doubt that he has money) has done worse. For example when he played the slot machines for the "spin to win" at South Point. Excerting from his article, he wrote:

"At 4%, I was expecting to lose about $4,500. Instead I lost at a 14.28% rate." At Rincon we're talking about an edge of less than half of one percent and which might even turn into a positive edge based on the free play promotions and dominance of the drawings.

I only wish I had the money for this one. Even if I didn't win the million dollars, I'd have gas cards and Macy gift cards to keep me driving and shopping forever.

[Alan Mendelson]

I went back over on that other Forum to review the detailed math work done by one of the posters and his conclusion was that a high roller would be "a $4K/mth. loser." And the high roller would "therefore have to hit one of the top monthly drawings once in the year to essentially break even."

Well, I think the high roller is going to hit one of those $50k jackpots or more. And losing only $4,000 a month is a lot better play than some of the other "advantage plays" I've been reading about on that other website.

I removed my comments from there because the usual suspects already started to attack me, and yes there was a mention of Rob. I could see where the "discussion" there was going. It was going nowhere since most of the "assumptions" were wrong. They even quoted something on the Internet about $50 coin-in for one point on certain high denomination video poker. Absurd. Even Caesars/Rincon's own published rules state clearly it is $10 per point. Also there was no consideration of additional free play, comps, or the use of excess comp points to buy gift cards or additional free play. In other words, they made up their minds based on their own limited info.

[Rob.Singer]

Alan, we've been snowmobiling the past few days and I crashed mine on Sunday resulting in a bit of fuzziness, but what's clear is that anyone who knows anything about gambling can very easily tell that the Rincon promo is a huge +EV opportunity for the AP's of the world. Discount whatever the hacks are saying on LVA. An AP doesn't need to hit ANY of the drawings or get any of the extras associated with this deal. All they need to know is the theoretical value of the drawings along with a few other estimates that they do with promos all the time in order to justify pouncing on something and risking a bundle. If anyone over there is trying to make the Rincon deal seem not worth their time, it's only because they don't have the money to keep up, they can't get there often enough, or--and this is the more likely scenario--they don't really play like they purport to play (as in arci playing nickels and never posting his supposed jackpots). And if that phoney fedomally was involved in the discussion, you can be sure he did everything possible to make the promo seem not worth it.

Good job exposing the extent of arci's lying about what I said. Now if you understood the lengths he goes to derail the facts about this, no one in their right mind would possibly believe anything else he says. I'd say he should feel right at home on LVA.

[arcimede$]

Typical Singer bluster and projection. Nothing new here.

[Alan Mendelson]

what's clear is that anyone who knows anything about gambling can very easily tell that the Rincon promo is a huge +EV opportunity for the AP's of the world. Discount whatever the hacks are saying on LVA. An AP doesn't need to hit ANY of the drawings or get any of the extras associated with this deal. All they need to know is the theoretical value of the drawings along with a few other estimates that they do with promos all the time in order to justify pouncing on something and risking a bundle. If anyone over there is trying to make the Rincon deal seem not worth their time, it's only because they don't have the money to keep up, they can't get there often enough,

Getting to Rincon is of course an issue. But "getting there" never stopped the teams from Reno or Vegas when the $5 DDB progressive was high enough. I'm pretty sure this is close to "even" with all of the comps and free play that is available, even before the monthly drawings are added in. The monthly drawings definitely will make this a +EV deal for the high rollers who, without a doubt, will dominate the drawings. That is something that goes over the heads of the folks on LVA. They never dealt with a month long or year long promotion such as this.

Sure, in a short term promotion of a weekend or a few days, it's unlikely anyone can dominate a drawing. Even Bob Dancer has not been able to dominate a drawing in a short term promotion and he has written about this. But this is a year long promotion where money can literally buy a huge advantage in the drawings.

Not only will money buy the largest number of entries based on the denomination played (nothing is bigger than the $100 single line video poker machines at Rincon, and there are only six of them), but only those with "money" can be sure to be there every Tuesday for triple entries, and only those with "money" can be sure to be there every time there is a drawing -- the last Saturday of each month plus the million dollar drawing on New Year's eve.

Sure there are other players at the casino who will have their "play" entered, but can they generate enough entries? Can they afford to be there every Tuesday for the maximum entries with "triple entries"? Can they afford to be there on the last Saturday of each month to have the potential to win the monthly $50,000 cash prices or the $5,000 per hour of free play drawings? And can they afford to plan in advance to be there next New Year's Eve?

This is why this promotion is destined to be won by a high roller or high roller team that can play on the big machines, can play on Tuesdays, can be there for each of the monthly Saturday drawings and can be there on New Year's Eve.

Unfortunately, I can't meet ANY of those requirements. I certainly can't afford the $100 games. Tuesday is a busy work day for me. I can't guarantee that I can be there every Saturday at the end of the month for the drawings, and frankly my wife and I don't like to drive around New Year's weekend. So I am effectively shut out of winning this promotion. I'd be better off playing daily $40 tournaments at The Bicycle casino than spending more money on that on gas just driving to Rincon trying to win this promotion!

But someone or some group with money can plan to win this, and they will win it. It's designed for high rollers to win.

And Rob, I'm sorry you crashed. We are all hoping that when the fuzziness clears that maybe it knocked a little compassion into you.

[Rob.Singer]

I agree with just about everything you said. Most people certainly could not meet all the attendance and play criteria, but a vp pro absolutely could. What's a few trips a week from LV to SD when such a big pot of gold awaits the dedicated high-rolling AP? Dancer is already a perennial 7-Stars player, and he claims he goes around the country to various CET properties to locate, create, & play " positive plays" in a corporation known mostly for cutbacks and the poorest of paytables. Here's an absolute gem of a play practically right down the street from him. If I were him (or at least if I were the character he's created in the vp community's minds) I'd jump on it!

[Alan Mendelson]

On that other forum I was asked to justify my points about free play offers and I used my own example of what I get and I suggested that $100 players would be getting a lot more which would dramatically improve their chances to dominate this Rincon promotion throughout the year. Arc responded on the other thread with "OMG, it turns out money is an APer afterall" and I'd like to ask here if you agree with my numbers now?

[Rob.Singer]

Of course your evaluation is correct Alan, and all you'll get from any self-proclaimed "APer" is a plethora of excuses why such a good play, isn't good. Why? Well, as I've exposed so often over the years, most chest-pounding "APers" really don't play the strict way they espouse. Most or even all in fact, never met a full-pay (not "over 100%") machine they wouldn't play because being an AP by definition means the player is addicted to playing.

LVA and/or videopoker.com are hardly the forums to bring the Rincon play up at. Those forums are full of hacks, phonies, and truly unknowledgeable people who would rather complain about being cheated out of a 2 fer 1 buffet coupon than understand how to play properly. I suggest bringing it up on the Wizard's forum where you'll get some REAL analysis and input, and where arci can't get away with his nonsense because the forum admin. has ten times the intelligence, ability, and even bankroll than he does.