Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
You doubt that closing lines for any major betting market are more accurate on average than opening lines?

Duh.

I cannot believe anyone would believe this as a blanket statement. First of all, whether it is or isn't is sport-dependent, which has multiple components I won't get into here. Second, whether it is or isn't is source-of-money-wagered-dependent, which can change in the blink of an eye or sport-to-sport and is also completely dependent on what's highlighted media-wise. If I ran ESPN for a day, I could influence lines without betting a cent myself, for example.

Why would anyone believe that, I guess is my question. Confidence in "the wisdom of crowds?" It's a presumption based on arrogance.

Or maybe overuse of stock market jargon (of which I am admittedly occasionally guilty) is the problem?

So no, as a blanket statement, and especially in certain sports more than others, it's a terrible presumption.

This is one of the classic issues I have with people thinking they know what they're doing when it comes to sports betting. Guys like Shackleford or Stanford Wong are poster boys for "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing."