Zenking, I think you are over-analyzing your results. It is
VERY easy to do. I sometimes find myself doing it. I would guess every grinder-type blackjack player has fallen into the trap of over-analyzing.
Here is the analogy: A good hitting baseball player, batting let's say .310 for a season. Pretty good season. But if you go back and take a close look, you will see numerous times that he was on a very cold streak, batting 0 for 12, or 1 for 16 or 17 over a handful of games. In any large set of results you can find small subsets that seem "out of whack".
Now complicating this further is that in blackjack, all games and sessions are not created equal. I have better games that are going to result in higher EV per round played. Maybe it is a game dealt much deeper than standard (deeper penetration). Maybe it is a game with an extraordinarily good rule, condition or side bet. Maybe it is the crowded weekends or big fight nights that allow you to play higher limits than usual. These are 3 examples of situations that are going to either have you seeing and playing more high counts (+EV) situations than "normal" or have you putting more money out during those +EV situations. This results in higher EV (longterm), but in the short-term if you happen to lose some of those sessions (think the baseball player 1 for 15 streak), you are going to experience large losses and greater variance,
specifically because they are the better opportunities, with higher than usual high counts or larger max bet. It is almost sort of working against you in the short term.
So here's the thing. I hope you are use software to determine your EV for each different game, condition and scenario. You should then just add up all those session EV and compare that total against actual results total. That is the fastest way to get to the long term and smooth out the variance. But every time you start digging into smaller subsets of these results, whether it be results by a particular casino, results by holiday weekends, or even something as stupid as results on a Tuesday afternoon, you just might stumble onto an oddity, that really has little meaning because the subset is too small. And for a paranoid person, who thinks every one is out to get them
, this danger of over-analyzing becomes even greater.
The total EV vs total win/loss is the most important record. That is the one that is going to get to and represent long-term and that is what blackjack card counting is all about. I am not saying you shouldn't keep smaller subset results, like results by individual casinos. I do. And I have been able to identify a couple "problem areas" because I do. But every time you see some negative results in a smaller subset it doesn't mean you are being cheated. It is a subset of results that really is insignificant to draw any conclusions from.
As long as your total results fall within the normal range, I recommend that you not go looking for something that isn't there (over-anaylizing). You can't justify every freaking losing session. Sometimes you are just in a 0 for 11 slump.