This thread and some of the responses have been pretty revealing.
So, I have expressed my opinion about MDawg's "adventures". I enjoy reading the trip reports and accounts of his Las Vegas visits, seeing pictures of the suits. I have expressed my opinion that he is what would be described as a mini whale or whale jr. And that's what I believe he is. A -EV player, who may have some winning play, but loses in the long-term. Just the kind of player Las Vegas was built on.
With his claims of 40 winning trips in a row, I have given him the benefit of doubt, suggesting he is either exaggerating or experiencing "selective memory", which are pretty common among losing gamblers. It might not even be their intention to deceive...they just remember the good or winning and tend to dismiss and quickly forget the losing. An example would be my grandfather, a life long horse racing guy. Of course he was a huge life time losing player. But when I would ask him how he did over his lifetime, I always got the "about even" reply. My grandfather wasn't out to decisive me. He believed that. His stories were always about the big wins, the trifecta he hit with a 60-1 shot on top....that kind of thing. Because THAT is what he remembers. The losses, quickly vanish from his memory.
AP's focus on the math. We know what is and isn't possible. But every once in a while someone comes along claiming they were able to achieve the impossible, to defy the math. The biggest example on this forum is of course Rob Singer. His claims are not possible by the math. Not to the longterm results that he claims. Rob retorts this by trying to disavow the idea of long-term. He claims in the short term a player can defy expectation and he is right to some degree. But then he claims the player can simply do so again and again and again. This is where he is wrong. (Think roulette. Can you hit black 3 out of 4? Absolutely. Can you hit black 3 out of 4 a thousand times in a row? absolutely not).
So here is the funny part: MDawg comes along, claiming to defy the math on a short term basis (as he has offered no other explanation). So who is the biggest critic, calling him out as a phony? Rob Singer.
But what it says to me, is that Rob knows how the math works. Most losing, degenerate gamblers do, even if they can't admit it. And because Rob knows, he calls MDawg out as a phony. What is the saying?....takes one to know one.
But what it really says to me is that Rob's whole act is fiction. He thinks he is playing a character, from his anti-math claims right down to his nasty, try to be as dislikeable as possible characteristic. It's fiction and Rob is playing the part of the villain. It's all make believe.
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