The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[coach belly]

coach belly you should listen a little more to tableplay.

Regarding the trip reports that MDawg has posted, tableplay's relevant comments are as follows...

Every player does not have to lose for the casino to make money in aggregate.

I've stipulated only that a player can win over the short term at a negative expectation game.

I am not certain he lost on his recent trips.

[redietz]

Coach, allow me to help you out here. After you misconstrued some basic probability terminology, I suggested you take some probability courses. You said you had no interest. But that's otay, as Buckwheat would say.

Let me explain. Gambling is not like having a hot wife, like MDawg's. In gambling, when you've won 25 or 30 or 40 times in a row at a -EV game, that's statistically very rare. And you keep arguing that it can happen, and there is no evidence MDawg was fibbing. All well and true. But going forward, even if we accept MDawg's previous 40 straight wins (not counting the stock market or the hot wife), the expectation is that MDawg should operate at chance (oh, sorry, there's that tricky probability phrase). But in posts to come, at each step of the way, MDawg does not report chance results. And he is almost certainly not going to report that he is operating at chance (sorry again) in the future. It's March 17. Do you really think between now and August 17, assuming MDawg gambles some, he will operate at chance (sorry again)?

See, how this differs from having a hot wife is that most of the time, if you have a hot wife (as MDawg most certainly does), then the next time you see her, she's still hot. And seeing her be hot 40 times in a row is not statistically unusual. Going forward, after those 40 times of seeing her hot, she will probably still be hot.

Thus, having a hot wife is not the same as gambling...probabilistically. I hope this helps you out until you get to take those probability courses you seem to have an aversion to. I mean, years of convoluted arguing on forums, trying to twist minutia to make Rube Goldberg arguments.

Wouldn't it just be easier to take some probability courses so you can really get into it? And if you figure out what MDawg's doing, you can then have a hot wife like MDawg and understand the probability of it all.

[Deech]

Personally, I have taken a number of mathematical courses and many have stated that my wife is hot. But, yesterday she lost 12.5%, and in the last month, 30%, in her 401K. When I woke up this morning, I realized, my wife is not as attractive as she used to be.

[tableplay]

Regarding the trip reports that MDawg has posted, tableplay's relevant comments are as follows...

I've stipulated only that a player can win over the short term at a negative expectation game.

I am not certain he lost on his recent trips.

Even taken out of context, these excerpts do nothing to support the idea that Mdawg's +EV accounts are true.

[coach belly]

In gambling, when you've won 25 or 30 or 40 times in a row at a -EV game, that's statistically very rare. And you keep arguing that it can happen

I haven't argued that it can happen.

I'm interested in the recent trip reports, and why his detractors insist that he fabricated his results.

Did you read the trip reports and conclude that he fabricated his results?

What documentation could he provide to verify what he has reported?

[tableplay]

I'm interested in the recent trip reports, and why his detractors insist that he fabricated his results.

Because his recent trip reports indicate an aggregate outcome that has only a 1 in 20 million chance of occurring (he sort of shot himself in the foot by posting the results)

Did you read the trip reports and conclude that he fabricated his results?

Yes - see response above.

What documentation could he provide to verify what he has reported?

None, because he could omit documentation for losing sessions even if winning session documentation existed.

[coach belly]

Even taken out of context, these excerpts do nothing to support the idea that Mdawg's +EV accounts are true.

The excerpts are your answers to my questions.

MDawg hasn't asserted mathematical expectation, his accounts are his reported results.

[coach belly]

his recent trip reports indicate an aggregate outcome that has only a 1 in 20 million chance of occurring

He had a 1 in 20 million chance to win $60K for the last 2 trips?

[redietz]

Personally, I have taken a number of mathematical courses and many have stated that my wife is hot. But, yesterday she lost 12.5%, and in the last month, 30%, in her 401K. When I woke up this morning, I realized, my wife is not as attractive as she used to be.

See, but that's because you can do the math. The math helps with your hotness discernment. Just another reason for coach to tackle those probability courses.

[BoSox]

One thing I do think about MDawg is that, as far as wealth goes, he does not know the meaning of the word. People with money have no reason at all to flaunt it on internet gaming boards.

[coach belly]

Just another reason for coach to tackle those probability courses.

MDawg posted several photos of hand-by-hand results of baccarat shoes that he claims to have played.

Could a probability course show it unlikely for him to have won playing those shoes?

[redietz]

One thing I do think about MDawg is that, as far as wealth goes, he does not know the meaning of the word. People with money have no reason at all to flaunt it on internet gaming boards.

Ssssshhhhhh, don't say things like that. Or we'll never get pics of MDawg's hot wife.

Besides, my cousin, E.R. Dietz, posts pics of shaving equipment all the time. And he's loaded.

[coach belly]

One thing I do think about MDawg is that, as far as wealth goes, he does not know the meaning of the word. People with money have no reason at all to flaunt it on internet gaming boards.

Does his net worth have any bearing on whether or not he could have won under the circumstances that he documented in his trip reports?

Folks have no reason to "flaunt" their meals on the internet, but there are many who do...what does that mean?

[BoSox]

Personally, I have taken a number of mathematical courses and many have stated that my wife is hot. But, yesterday she lost 12.5%, and in the last month, 30%, in her 401K. When I woke up this morning, I realized, my wife is not as attractive as she used to be.

Please don't blame your sudden impotence on your wife's 401k returns over the last month.

[redietz]

One thing I do think about MDawg is that, as far as wealth goes, he does not know the meaning of the word. People with money have no reason at all to flaunt it on internet gaming boards.

Does his net worth have any bearing on whether or not he could have won under the circumstances that he documented in his trip reports?

Folks have no reason to "flaunt" their meals on the internet, but there are many who do...what does that mean?

Exactimundo. If people keep saying things like that, we'll miss out on pics of Mdawg's wife AND ribs!! And we'll be quarantined, so those pics of his wife and ribs have some real statistical value!

[redietz]

Personally, I have taken a number of mathematical courses and many have stated that my wife is hot. But, yesterday she lost 12.5%, and in the last month, 30%, in her 401K. When I woke up this morning, I realized, my wife is not as attractive as she used to be.

Please don't blame your sudden impotence on your wife's 401k returns over the last month.

I think Deech is implying that when the 401K goes down, he does the same.

[BoSox]

Originally Posted by BoSox
coach belly wrote:

"Does his net worth have any bearing on whether or not he could have won under the circumstances that he documented in his trip reports?"

No, it does not but I will tell you something that does have a significant bearing on the matter. Casinos hate consistent WINNERS! You would think that casinos with all their game protection in place, along with all their upfront advantages that the managements are all calm cool and collected and take everything in stride, WRONG. In reality, top casino personnel is as superstitious as any gambler on the floor. If anyone is unexpectedly defying the odds over an extended period of time be that by hours played, days on a trip, or consecutive trips suddenly the welcome mat becomes smaller and smaller. They may not be able to spot anything to worry about but they do draw the line at some point.

Sorry coach I deleted the first post by accident.

[coach belly]

I will tell you something that does have a significant bearing on the matter....If anyone is unexpectedly defying the odds over an extended period of time be that by hours played, days on a trip, or consecutive trips suddenly the welcome mat becomes smaller and smaller.

You're telling me something that you know first-hand, or something that was told to you by someone else?

Tell me this...if MDawg were to post his W/L statement from 2019 that showed an overall gaming win for last year, would you accept his claim that he is getting comped despite consistently winning?

Regarding your post formats...instead of typing "member X wrote" before you quote another member, why not use the Reply With Quote function?

That way viewers can click onto the double arrow icon next to the quoted member's name, and read the original post that you have quoted.

[Deech]

Personally, I have taken a number of mathematical courses and many have stated that my wife is hot. But, yesterday she lost 12.5%, and in the last month, 30%, in her 401K. When I woke up this morning, I realized, my wife is not as attractive as she used to be.

Please don't blame your sudden impotence on your wife's 401k returns over the last month.

I think Deech is implying that when the 401K goes down, he does the same.

While I may have the onset of macular degeneration, I find it fascinating that a severe monetary blip can alter the ocular nerve and transform Michele Pfeiffer into Phyllis Diller.

As I wept while wandering through the streets of Massachusetts this morning, I saw other adults crying. As I passed by, I looked over and asked, "The market?". They replied, "No, Brady.".

[tableplay]

The excerpts are your answers to my questions.

That's true. Additionally, they are taken out of context.