Covid-19 by the numbers

[tableplay]

You've already downplayed what this virus does so your reasoning is off.

How have I down played what this virus does ? Stating that something might be bigger than something else doesn't mean that the something else is not significant. Love the non Stop strawmen coming from you.

I think some folks are seriously underestimating the ability of the federal government and military to pull off reasonably accurate modeling of outcomes based on variables as they are unveiled.

To think that these are pie-in-the-sky soft models is wishful thinking, which has permeated Americans' general responses regarding this from the beginning. These models have been around for decades, being applied to numerous scenarios just like this.

I think the covid-19 models are reasonable since there are a finite number of variables and they are measured reasonably well. In regards to models of the consequences of a lock down (of this magnitude), I don't think there has ever been a lockdown on a country the size of the United States (and population size) that wasn't communist. The modern world is more complex than ever. There has never been a time where instant gratification is at the level it is at now. I hope these older models can take it. I think that only LaPlace's Demon knows all the variables and what values to plug into them under these conditions - to him, our universe and all other universes are deterministic - but only to him (IMHO). Anyway I guess we will see how accurate the lock down models are over the long run.

[tableplay]

So many variables.

Yes. Yet here they are locking things down, believing they know all the variables when it is actually intractable.

lol did you see NY?
Cuomo was fumbling all over the place with words.
Words are important he says and this is not shelter in place.
However, we will force you to close or ticket you if we have to.
I am sure Nevada will be closing very soon.

Don't worry though... this will all be over in 14 to 30 days lol lol lol

Hypocrisy at its finest.

[monet]

Hypocrisy at its finest.

He basically says we need you to stay at home for a month and everything will be fine.
After he says that he says this...

Cuomo cautions ‘fear and panic’ could be even worse than the Coronavirus, as cases soar above 5,000 in New York!

“The fear and panic is, if anything, worse than the virus.” was his direct quote!

And that was yesterday before his most recent press conference.

I know these guys always double talk but this shit is too much for me.
You can't close everything down and tell me not to worry about it or don't stockpile lol.
People in denial telling me that the food chain won't break down lol.
If this goes into the summer in Vegas it won't be pretty at 115 degrees or more for months.

Like I say, I am not worried about the virus and the virus numbers.
What is bothering me are the drastic measures they are enforcing that is going to cripple most of us.

[accountinquestion]

How have I down played what this virus does ? Stating that something might be bigger than something else doesn't mean that the something else is not significant. Love the non Stop strawmen coming from you.

You completely ignored the fact that thet healthcare system will be in total shambles. The economy will still go to shit. You searched around for a few instances of where someone might kill themselves because they couldn't see their coworkers and such. The only reason you'd do that is because you've already committed mentally to a downplaying of the virus. One can see it in your posts.

Tell me these "strawmen" I put up. <crickets>

Also - just the fact that you are having the argument itself is downplaying the virus.
"Why aren't we just ignoring it and letting it play out". That is effectively downplaying it. Nothing to do with strawmen arguments.

Like the strawman I just stated that you responded to just now. I said nothing about the virus being insignificant.
Please quote where I actually made the statement: "Why aren't we just ignoring it and letting it play out"
I remember posting no such statement.

You are right, I should have qualified that with "And I am paraphrasing here.." That really isn't a strawman, but it was a misquote. I am not the best writer and take far too many shortcuts because otherwise thoughts tend to be overly verbose. In a rush to get my point across, I am not always the most accurate. I still stand behind what I said in general though.

What I am doing is no worse than Monet who keeps saying everything is "locked down". There are legit curfews in some areas, but Californias can still go freely from private residence to private residence. Same deal with TX and most everywhere else. No one is locked down. People are locked out of working and public gathering. This is exactly what I would have expected them to do.

And I'm pretty sure the models would predict far worse things when 1/2 the country gets sick within a few months of each other.

[monet]

Perhaps we aren't on Full Lock Down but at this rate it is not a stretch to understand that it is a logical step in the near future.
At the moment they are letting States make their own rules.
You have Mayors begging the President to deploy the Military and create Nationwide Mandates.
If they continue on the current trend they will just keep tightening the screws just like a Casino plugging up a leaky promotion.
I could be wrong but even a Neanderthal like myself can see a couple moves ahead in this game of chess.

A direct quote from Governor Quomo...

Prepare for the Worst and Hope for the Best!?

[tableplay]

Perhaps we aren't on Full Lock Down but at this rate it is not a stretch to understand that it is a logical step in the near future.
At the moment they are letting States make their own rules.
You have Mayors begging the President to deploy the Military and create Nationwide Mandates.
If they continue on the current trend they will just keep tightening the screws just like a Casino plugging up a leaky promotion.
I could be wrong but even a Neanderthal like myself can see a couple moves ahead in this game of chess.

A direct quote from Governor Quomo...

Prepare for the Worst and Hope for the Best!?

There's already shit starting Monet. An hour ago I was making a purchase and a clerk asked me how I was getting along and I told her that I was having trouble getting toilet paper but that I did buy some online from Amazon about a week ago and had no problem with delivery (overpaid by about 15% I think though). Then she told me that she was bumped into when she went shopping and said that she was in tears (I didn't press her for details) - this was totally unsolicited information from her. It seemed like she wasn't holding it together that well and I could hardly blame her given what's happening with all this shit.

[monet]

There's already shit starting Monet. An hour ago I was making a purchase and a clerk asked me how I was getting along and I told her that I was having trouble getting toilet paper but that I did buy some online from Amazon about a week ago and had no problem with delivery (overpaid by about 15% I think though). Then she told me that she was bumped into when she went shopping and said that she was in tears (I didn't press her for details) - this was totally unsolicited information from her. It seemed like she wasn't holding it together that well and I could hardly blame her given what's happening with all this shit.

Thanks for the information!
I overheard a lady telling a story about some sort of police stoppage that was basically unconstitutional.
She wasn't happy about it and I didn't catch the whole story but I am pretty sure it has to get worse the more they regulate or mandate.

I'll give you a personal story real quick.
My son in law wanted an AR-15 but he procrastinated too long and now can't figure out how to get one.
Of course all he has to do is go on Armslist and make it happen.
He should be able to get something and 500 to 1000 rounds of Ammo if he really focuses on it.
So of course I told him I would help him.
He actually has a 9mm and that should be plenty for home defense although a shotgun would be a better choice.
The problem is that it is too late and he is panicking like the rest of us.
He wanted one of my assault rifles and I was like I'm not giving these away and its too much gun for you anyway.
So I give him a SW XD 45. It holds 10 to 11 rounds and is very lightweight.
He told me I already have a hand gun and I was like yeah but you take this and you have two handguns and I can give you 200 rounds for free with 6 clips.
He took it but you could see he wasn't happy and feels like he needs an AR15.
I tried to explain to him that this 45 is like a Fucking Cannon and it is easy to use, maintain and conceal.
I told him... I'll try to get you something in the morning.
So I wake up at like 7 am... go on the computer... emails... texting and...
I have an AK 47 with red dot and a stock that collapses which is nice.
It came with 2 mags and 700 rounds and I have extra mags at home.
I call him for two hours before he finally gets in touch with me.
I tell him I got an AK 47 for him and I can drop it off.
He hems and haws and asks me all the wrong questions.
Mother Fucker wants an assault weapon and I make it happen in less than 2 hours and he gives me this indecisiveness about it.
Idiot will probably shoot himself or his family as he has no clue.
After not talking to him for a day I told him I will get you the gun eventually, don't worry about it but don't bother me right now

[accountinquestion]

There's already shit starting Monet. An hour ago I was making a purchase and a clerk asked me how I was getting along and I told her that I was having trouble getting toilet paper but that I did buy some online from Amazon about a week ago and had no problem with delivery (overpaid by about 15% I think though). Then she told me that she was bumped into when she went shopping and said that she was in tears (I didn't press her for details) - this was totally unsolicited information from her. It seemed like she wasn't holding it together that well and I could hardly blame her given what's happening with all this shit.

Thanks for the information!
I overheard a lady telling a story about some sort of police stoppage that was basically unconstitutional.
She wasn't happy about it and I didn't catch the whole story but I am pretty sure it has to get worse the more they regulate or mandate.

I'll give you a personal story real quick.
My son in law wanted an AR-15 but he procrastinated too long and now can't figure out how to get one.
Of course all he has to do is go on Armslist and make it happen.
He should be able to get something and 500 to 1000 rounds of Ammo if he really focuses on it.
So of course I told him I would help him.
He actually has a 9mm and that should be plenty for home defense although a shotgun would be a better choice.
The problem is that it is too late and he is panicking like the rest of us.
He wanted one of my assault rifles and I was like I'm not giving these away and its too much gun for you anyway.
So I give him a SW XD 45. It holds 10 to 11 rounds and is very lightweight.
He told me I already have a hand gun and I was like yeah but you take this and you have two handguns and I can give you 200 rounds for free with 6 clips.
He took it but you could see he wasn't happy and feels like he needs an AR15.
I tried to explain to him that this 45 is like a Fucking Cannon and it is easy to use, maintain and conceal.
I told him... I'll try to get you something in the morning.
So I wake up at like 7 am... go on the computer... emails... texting and...
I have an AK 47 with red dot and a stock that collapses which is nice.
It came with 2 mags and 700 rounds and I have extra mags at home.
I call him for two hours before he finally gets in touch with me.
I tell him I got an AK 47 for him and I can drop it off.
He hems and haws and asks me all the wrong questions.
Mother Fucker wants an assault weapon and I make it happen in less than 2 hours and he gives me this indecisiveness about it.
Idiot will probably shoot himself or his family as he has no clue.
After not talking to him for a day I told him I will get you the gun eventually, don't worry about it but don't bother me right now

What were his wrong questions and what did you pay for the AK ? I'm sure it was easy to get but what price?

[tableplay]

There's already shit starting Monet. An hour ago I was making a purchase and a clerk asked me how I was getting along and I told her that I was having trouble getting toilet paper but that I did buy some online from Amazon about a week ago and had no problem with delivery (overpaid by about 15% I think though). Then she told me that she was bumped into when she went shopping and said that she was in tears (I didn't press her for details) - this was totally unsolicited information from her. It seemed like she wasn't holding it together that well and I could hardly blame her given what's happening with all this shit.

Thanks for the information!
I overheard a lady telling a story about some sort of police stoppage that was basically unconstitutional.
She wasn't happy about it and I didn't catch the whole story but I am pretty sure it has to get worse the more they regulate or mandate.

I'll give you a personal story real quick.
My son in law wanted an AR-15 but he procrastinated too long and now can't figure out how to get one.
Of course all he has to do is go on Armslist and make it happen.
He should be able to get something and 500 to 1000 rounds of Ammo if he really focuses on it.
So of course I told him I would help him.
He actually has a 9mm and that should be plenty for home defense although a shotgun would be a better choice.
The problem is that it is too late and he is panicking like the rest of us.
He wanted one of my assault rifles and I was like I'm not giving these away and its too much gun for you anyway.
So I give him a SW XD 45. It holds 10 to 11 rounds and is very lightweight.
He told me I already have a hand gun and I was like yeah but you take this and you have two handguns and I can give you 200 rounds for free with 6 clips.
He took it but you could see he wasn't happy and feels like he needs an AR15.
I tried to explain to him that this 45 is like a Fucking Cannon and it is easy to use, maintain and conceal.
I told him... I'll try to get you something in the morning.
So I wake up at like 7 am... go on the computer... emails... texting and...
I have an AK 47 with red dot and a stock that collapses which is nice.
It came with 2 mags and 700 rounds and I have extra mags at home.
I call him for two hours before he finally gets in touch with me.
I tell him I got an AK 47 for him and I can drop it off.
He hems and haws and asks me all the wrong questions.
Mother Fucker wants an assault weapon and I make it happen in less than 2 hours and he gives me this indecisiveness about it.
Idiot will probably shoot himself or his family as he has no clue.
After not talking to him for a day I told him I will get you the gun eventually, don't worry about it but don't bother me right now

Interesting stuff Monet, thanks.

[monet]

What were his wrong questions and what did you pay for the AK ? I'm sure it was easy to get but what price?

Any question was the wrong question.
When I talked to him I said I just bought him an AK 47 with 2 mags and 700 rounds.
After that I said do you want it because I am out and will bring it to you right now and we can go do the necessary paperwork.
His response should of been yes I want it and got his ass in gear telling me where to meet him.
Mind you, I didn't ask him to buy it from me this was a gift or a loan or whatever you want to call it but he made it too complicated.
I don't have time for that kind of game.
It shouldn't of taken me over 2 hours to get a hold of him in this situation and he should of been jumping at the opportunity.
Whatever though... just the way different personalities are I suppose.

Everything was 1000 dollars total which is a steal in this current market IMO.
The ammo alone is worth 350.
Although I was able to get 1000 rounds for 350 so prices may vary but they are at about 50 cents a round currently.
It wasn't long ago that I was paying 25 cents a round.

[monet]

I could use some help if this is Fact or Fiction about the Global Supply Chain...

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/c...100000918.html

[accountinquestion]

I could use some help if this is Fact or Fiction about the Global Supply Chain...

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/c...100000918.html

No mention of food in the entire article.

[tableplay]

I could use some help if this is Fact or Fiction about the Global Supply Chain...

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/c...100000918.html

I'm not sure Monet, but you could start with what the market thinks of it. Here is a link to the Dow Jones Global Shipping Index:
https://us.spindices.com/indices/equ...ping-index-usd
As you can see from the screenshot of this Index below, the market doesn't seem to stoked about things (down 45% quarter to date). IIRC there are more specific and less specific indices as well such as a transportation index, trucking index and so on.

Cheers, TP.

[monet]

Thanks Tableplay!

I could use some help if this is Fact or Fiction about the Global Supply Chain...

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/c...100000918.html

No mention of food in the entire article.

I am not sure if you being funny or serious.
I realize it doesn't directly mention food.
I guess you don't see the severity of the situation and how it is all interconnected.
We're cool though... it isn't like we can do anything about it but it is useful information for learning and exploitation.

I am sure you think this might all be fantasy but this is a perfect time for another country to declare war on a weakened United States.
This is kinda serious and threats are being made from both sides.
It doesn't even have to be a military attack either.

[accountinquestion]

Thanks Tableplay!

I could use some help if this is Fact or Fiction about the Global Supply Chain...

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/c...100000918.html

No mention of food in the entire article.

I am not sure if you being funny or serious.
I realize it doesn't directly mention food.
I guess you don't see the severity of the situation and how it is all interconnected.
We're cool though... it isn't like we can do anything about it but it is useful information for learning and exploitation.

I am sure you think this might all be fantasy but this is a perfect time for another country to declare war on a weakened United States.
This is kinda serious and threats are being made from both sides.
It doesn't even have to be a military attack either.

I believe the supply chain issues we will see are real and won't impact food enough where anyone will be rioting or so forth. This country has tons of food sitting around. We export food. Other countries, sure, but USA has food covered.

[mickeycrimm]

Thanks Tableplay!

No mention of food in the entire article.

I am not sure if you being funny or serious.
I realize it doesn't directly mention food.
I guess you don't see the severity of the situation and how it is all interconnected.
We're cool though... it isn't like we can do anything about it but it is useful information for learning and exploitation.

I am sure you think this might all be fantasy but this is a perfect time for another country to declare war on a weakened United States.
This is kinda serious and threats are being made from both sides.
It doesn't even have to be a military attack either.

I believe the supply chain issues we will see are real and won't impact food enough where anyone will be rioting or so forth. This country has tons of food sitting around. We export food. Other countries, sure, but USA has food covered.

Walmart has hired an extra hundred thousand people because of high sales. It lloks like some of the shortages can be blamed on lack of employee's to stock the stuff.

[monet]

Obviously there are two ways of thinking about this and it honestly doesn't matter if there is plenty of food or not.
Unless of course they make it all free and ration it somehow which I certainly couldn't fathom.

Just shutting down NY and CA for for 2 weeks is going to be a tremendous hit to the GDP.
I highly doubt that they will open back up after 2 weeks.
It looks like they are going to tighten the screws even more and eventually it is going to go to a National Shut Down.

Even if it doesn't go National and you shut down NY and CA non-essential business for 1 month you are going to be looking at an Instant Depression.
Most people won't be able to buy this massive food supply that you think is actually in the stockpile.

We aren't even getting into the medicine and exporting that we need from foreign countries.
We are just talking about inside our own country which is slowly shutting down its borders, travel and trade.

Believe what you want and deny it as long as you can but I suggest you all get out there and stock up on whatever you can while you can.
The virus is most likely going to be a small impact compared to the Financial Hit that has already started.
Tableplay gets it.
Hopefully we are all laughing about this post in a month but I highly doubt it.
My money is going into more supplies while things are still somewhat open.
Not sure what people need to wake up lol... the market just went down 10,000+ points down over 30+ %.
This idea or dream that we will skyrocket back into infinity is ridiculous.
Even if they say its safe to go back to normal it will take months for people to actually venture out.

[kewlJ]

So near as I can tell, shutting down everything, New York, California, Las Vegas, schools and businesses almost everywhere, isn't really about protecting people, it is just about slowing the spread down. Governor Cuomo (New York) said this morning that when all is said and done, 40-80% of new York residents will contract the virus. He is not the first I have heard that from. I mean I feel like I would almost rather take my chances, go about my life, if and when I get the virus, get sick for a few days, or week or whatever and begin to build up an immunity. That "herd immunity" thing that they are talking about. WITHOUT shutting down and ruining the economy for years to come. Is that selfish?

Next question is what happens to the people that currently have the virus, or who will contract it soon. In the next few weeks there will be more and more that have gone through the virus, gotten sick and recovered (some don't even get sick or only mildly get sick). I mean those people are going to want to get back to life, but how can they when everything will continue to be shut down?

Fact: Older people and people with various health conditions and weakened or compromised immune systems are vulnerable and in greater danger. BUT it is that way with every disease, including the regular flu. I mean if you are older or have compromised/weakened immune system, those are the people that should be on lockdown, and minimizing contact with everyone else, not the whole rest of the world.

Writing this, I know that sounds mean, but that is just the way it is. If you are older or have anything that makes you more vulnerable, YOU need to do whatever you have to do to take precautions. But just shutting down the whole country and world, is going to do far more damage and for a much longer time. Again, these shutdowns aren't going to stop the virus. The experts say most of the population will still get it. So we are just destroying the economy on top of it. Just an opinion.

[mcap]

Remember that stupid Pauly Shore movie where he’s inside that bubble land with all the scientists or whatever? Yeah put all the old people, and immunocompromised and underlying condition people inside that bubble and the rest of us get the herd immunity. Oh yeah make sure to put Pauly Shore inside that bubble too.

By the way this thread is in the wrong fucking subsection, in my opinion.

[kewlJ]

Remember that stupid Pauly Shore movie where he’s inside that bubble land with all the scientists or whatever? Yeah put all the old people, and immunocompromised and underlying condition people inside that bubble and the rest of us get the herd immunity. Oh yeah make sure to put Pauly Shore inside that bubble too.

By the way this thread is in the wrong fucking subsection, in my opinion.

I don't think you need to put people in a bubble, but at the peak of flu season, older people or people with compromised or weaken immune systems, I would think take precautions or should and when the flu is at its peak that might include almost shutting down and self isolating.

Now here's another thought (also in the wrong subsection). It seems people get inflection through the openings on their face, nose, eyes and mouth. And technically most are infecting themselves, because the get infected when the virus gets on their hands and fingers and then they touch their nose, eyes face, which we all do subconsciously a million times a day. I guess if someone coughs right in your face you can get it without touching yourself, but most infections come from a persons own fingers and hands.

So how about we wear a face mask/shield type thing for a while. It could be a full helmet like a motorcycle helmet, or it could be a shield like welders use. So every time you go to touch your face, you can't. Boom, you would smack into your shield. LOL. It would also protect against anyone coughing in close proximity. Sounds a little bizarre, but really in a good portion of the country you put on extra "gear", heavy coat, boots, scarf, gloves to go out in winter. So with this you are just going to have to put on your face mask/shield to go out until they figure things out. Then you come home, take your face mask/shield of, clean it, maybe take all your cloths off and take a shower.

I mean , doesn't that beat shutting down the country/world and national/world economy which is going to have consequences for years to come? Wear a face mask and go about life almost normal.