Originally Posted by redietz View Post
If California is projected to have a 50% infection rate, and New York 70-80%, that means those percentages of the people get the virus. Plug in your mortality rates and do the math. Germany and Italy are looking at well over 50% total infected. Even if the numbers are low in places like Montana and Idaho, it'll still likely be 15% infected on up. Plug in the mortality rates and add up the figures.

That 80,000 U.S. deaths was an optimistic lowball number.

Virtually every number, every scenario we have gotten in advance thus far has been an underestimation. That is not blaming the administration so much as the entire federal government. The military, for example, monitoring China, undoubtedly knew how bad this was going to be. They have the models.

To be clear on this, using the president's self-rating system, I would give President Trump about a 1 on a 1-10 scale, and that's for the Chinese ban. I'd give the rest of the federal government a 2.
Something is up with Germany. 50K cases and only 300 deaths. I figure the 90K cases in the U.S. is more like 500K cases but a lot of people aren't getting sick. The mortality rate is likely well under 1%.