Originally Posted by
House of Orange
Just think, if no vaccine is found, and sooner or later everyone comes in contact, and the death rate is 1%, total deaths is 3.3 million.
The death rate is far greater than 1%. It can take up to a month even longer for someone to either die or recover. That means at any time, between active cases, and resolved cases, meaning either those that died or recovered, there are a very large group of active cases that can not be part of the death rate calculation. They are still pending. The death rate is
NOT deaths divided by total cases. It is deaths divided by
resolved cases. Really the comparison is only about those who have recovered and those that have died. To do it any differently is fudging the numbers. And by that number the current death rate is about 9%.
At any given time this total number which includes active cases also includes 10's of thousands of people in critical condition. A good number of those people are going to die. That is not being factored in. As a matter of fact by dividing the deaths by total cases you are assuming that all those critical people will survive and clearly not true. Again the problem is that it takes so long, a month or longer for a case to resolve.
Now I hope and think that the death rate will come down because we have better medical than other places that got the virus first. This is going to seem a little crude but also some of the most vulnerable die early and quickly. Sort of like low hanging fruit. I am thinking half of that current 9% rate (deaths divided by
resolved cases).
Now the other mistake is people thinking that there are so many more cases that have resolved by themselves with minor symptoms or the person not even knowing. That is simply an assumption! We don't know that and we don't use assumptions in science. There is an easy way to figure that and that is to test everybody and see how many had the virus and recovered with little or no symptoms. But we aren't doing that. We could even test a sample group of say 10,000 so that we would have a data point of how many had the virus with little or no symptoms, to better bases that on. But just to assume that all kinds of people, and everyone's aunt and uncle that had the sniffles had corona-virus and recovered is just BS. It is the end of winter, someone's uncle that had a cough and sniffles probably had a cold. Winter..cold??
So there are just way too many assumptions being made on this forum and even in the media. The scientific way to determine death rate is death divided by
resolved cases. Don't assume that of all the current cases no more will die.....That is preposterous. It is fudging the numbers.