Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
I didn't play a million hands over 8 trips pal. And even if I had, the way you get at a 7% chance that someone may wind up ahead even after 1 million hands is that you have to still assume some chance of variance extending out over even that many hands, and that is the calculation that your flat line simple number crunching doesn't take into effect. Which is why I said that you set up the whole problem wrong in the first place.

And in any case, you still calculated the odds of coming out ahead after just 8 trips at twenty million to one. You never figured in any variance, because you have no idea what it is or means. You just keep talking about 49.3% probability. Good night. Enjoy future MDawg adventures.
You have virtually no chance of being ahead after 1 million hands. How did you arrive at a 7% calculation ? I stand by my 20 million to 1 calculation. I even verified the methodology since it agrees with that at betfirm.com.