Originally Posted by
mickeycrimm
Multi-thousands of Americans die from the common flu every year. Why no stock market drop? Why no quarantines? Why no banning of crowds? Why do so many people not get flu shots every year. How many of you got a flu shot this year?
There are 12K deaths from the common flu so far this season. There are 27 dead from coronavirus. It's just a media event meant to scare the hell out of people and tank the economy.
THE SKY IS FALLING!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!
I'll go out on a limb here and write like I'm answering a question. Our stock market does respond to international events. Yesterday's drop priced in the expected global impact of the virus and a major drop in oil prices with Saudi and Russian production being amped up. I gambled with someone with family in China and she related that her's and other families are basically staying home and sending someone out to get supplies every couple days. They live a long way from Wuhon. Imagine what would happen if this occurred in a consumer driven US economy. The market is imagining it. The market is also imagining what will happen if we reach Italy status. If this is a global pandemic, it is going to affect trade, supply chains, and hence the market and economy whether the US has a lot of cases or not.
We know at this stage that there is community transmission occurring in the US. We just don't know how prevalent it is because we haven't done much testing. That leaves businesses, citizens, local governments and markets to rely on guessing. Closures and cancellations are going to be an economic drag and it will be beneficial when we have enough testing to have enough data points for people to make informed decisions. We will also have a better idea of transmission and fatality rates.
I honestly don't know if the stock market will do better or worse once the unknowns are known. My guess is that people and the market will adjust to even bad news that they know about better than they are doing with not knowing. I will say that the coronavirus is not a scam. I will also predict the amount of reported cases in this country is going to rise as more testing is available. This won't mean that the US is suddenly being over run by the virus, it will just be a more accurate reflection of how many Americans have already been affected.
I'm not convinced of the applicabillity of the flue analogy. Flue season comes every year. It's already priced into the Market and how we live. We have access to vaccines and information about at risk populations, fatality and transmission rates. If a school district gets hit hard, they may suspend classes. If a particularly vicious strain of flue hits that causes other countries to alter how they live and do business, then it will influence the market.
Hope you're doing well Mickey. I worked with a woman years ago who had been diagnosed with leukemia. I was a union steward looking for ways to extend her insurance coverage after she couldn't work any more. I figure it would ultimately just reduce the debt her family had when she died. She lived though. She is kind of a force of nature. She couldn't be a PO anymore, so she reinvented her professional life and graduates in a few weeks. While in school, she has been working with prisoner reentry programs. Her illness may still kill her someday. In the meantime, though, she's kicking ass, taking names , and leaving a mark. I think that you're kind of a force of nature too. It sounds like you're making adjustments to your life. It wouldn't surprise me if you built an even better life than you had before. I love reading your stories of how you got here, and someday I might get to read about where you're headed.
Take care.