Originally Posted by
kewlJ
Originally Posted by
mickeycrimm
I think Rob's overall knowledge of the nuts and bolts of this play is key. In a public debate on it I think it will become apparent to many that his overall knowledge of the play is far superior to anyone else's.
Mickeycrimm, you want to see what you want to see. Having now befriended and decided you find Rob credible, THAT is what you see.
But the fact remains that for any objective person Robs claims remain dubious based on 20+ years of untruthfulness.
I don't see anyone debating that Rob now appears to have extensive knowledge of this play and how it worked. But it remains that there are
numerous ways he could have come into this knowledge after the fact....after the story broke. And one of those ways is for him to have actually found and exploited the play to some degree, a smaller degree than his claim, AFTER the fact.
Now again, perhaps it went down exactly as Rob claims. Perhaps it didn't. Rob who for years demanded proof of everyone, you included on every claim, has offered absolutely nothing in the way of proof that would collaborate his claim. All paperwork and tax documents were mysteriously disregarded, when he knew that some day he intended to publicly make this claim and people would want to see something to back it up. How convenient!
In the absence of any such collaborating documentation, people only have Rob's reputation and 20+ years of untruthful claims to base any kind of credibility on. And THAT is exactly what credibility is. YOU build it up over time.
So you can now choose to put blinders on and accept your new friend's claim and support him by finding him credible, but it just doesn't make it so. A 20 year history says otherwise.
Since you brought up credibility I have something to say about that. The following comment is not about Rob or the double up bug situation.
Credibility in the gambling and AP world can be hart to spot if you havent been in the business. And that's unfortunate since there are lots of people who dream of being able to gamble for a living and get rich quick. You better have a very good sence of logic if you want to get into the AP business, or you are fucked. You don't have to be a math expert, but you better believe in the math and that the math IS king or you are fucked.
IMO credibility comes with more than what people write and say anonymously on the forums. There are many people who are well read and well written. They can read about something, think about it, understand it, repeat it and even add to it without ever doing it them self. There are even some lower level AP's who hear about plays from other AP's, oftentimes after the fact, and then they tout them as their own claiming they play this or that blah blah blah. More than once I have had the pleasure of having someone tell me about a play they were on and what they did. I'm thinking, REALLY??? There were only 4 machines and I had them all locked up with partners and people who play for us. There are situations where the place is small and it would have been impossible for me not to have noticed them there playing. Depending on the play and situation I almost always walk around and take in the situation in order to evaluate everything. Even in bigger casinos that have multiple things to play I can almost allays tell who's there playing the promotion.
I have had people claim they know this person or that person. I'm like really?? That's like my best friend and shit, I'm sure you can see where this is going.
Then there are people who are clever enough to insinuate stuff without actually claiming it. They try to paint a picture of knowledge, the people they and certain other things just to give the illusion of credibility, yet they leave themselves with outs if ever they called out on it i.e. "I didnt say that, here is exactly what I said" For example. Lets say the discussion is about Phil Ivy and his baccarat play. I could pop up and say, I know him, Perhaps I will give him a call, I have him on speed dial. That may be true, however, he may not know me and I may have his number but only talked to him years ago about something unrelated and trivial.
Let's take BJ since its a little more anonymous and you may not ever run into a particular card counter so its harder to tell whats what, especially since there a vast amount of free knowledge on the internet and books etc. It would be very possible to learn the art of card counting to a higher skill level and thinking. One could seem and be very knowable while claiming they make x amount per year playing and doing this or that. Meanwhile they are just red chippers who make almost nothing. And then theres poker. That's even harder to figure out of a guys a winning player or not.
What people write and say on the forum and other places is a good start for sure, but after that you are left with nothing. So now what? For me it comes down to:
Do I, or have I ever actually see them out playing stuff(or have I ever even meet them)
How many people do they know that I know, do those people even know them?
Do others see them out playing stuff, have they ever meet anyone I know, or someone I know who know somome that knows them?
Have they ever known and done business with me or others I know, how many times?
If so, what do those people have to say about them?
Can anything they say actually be confirmed by others or some kind of proof?
Who are the people confirming this stuff, do I know and trust them?
Things start to add up and you can even get a good sence about someone, sometimes even people you have never even meet yourself.