Originally Posted by
mickeycrimm
The frequency of holding 567 suited and making a straight flush is exactly the same as holding a pair and making quads, 360.333
Alan, what do you think now?
I think the same thing after this discussion as I did after I had the same discussion with Rob Singer years ago. As I posted earlier, Rob also said the correct hold was the three SF cards. But the strategy I learned and followed is that you had a better chance getting your money back just holding the queen.
Why do you raise the question about the odds of getting four of a kind? I was not holding the lone Q to get four of a kind. Honestly, I was running my free play through once to maximize the value of the free play. Holding the lone queen did that by giving me four chances to pair the Queen or draw another paying pair or better.
As I read years ago, holding three small SF cards was nothing but a long shot -- and a tremendous long shot. It's 1/1081 to draw the straight flush, right Mickey? I wrote that number before in this thread but it was overlooked.
Ive had similar dealt hands over all the years I've played video poker, and never once did the SF cards show up on the draw. Gosh, how many times have all of us been dealt four to the royal and the single draw card was a blank? You saw in the video that on one hand I was dealt three to the royal -- also a 1/1081 draw -- and that was a miss too.
The reason I posted my free play video was to show an example of real results. This isn't armchair gambling, but it certainly brought out the Monday Morning Quarterbacks.
The rationale for not holding three small SF cards is sound -- because even a pair doesn't pay. And as I said make the SF draw with one high card or two and that changes everything.
You call it the wrong play -- but it was the right play for me. I wanted to convert free play to cash. But I assure you if there were four dealt cards with only one card to draw (as in a dealt four card royal) I would have taken the 1/47 shot. But a 1/1081 shot with only forty hands to be played? No thanks.