Originally Posted by
mcap
CE varies wildly based on amount of capital available to my understanding than a straightforward 2:1 ratio, however, it’s related proportionately to the risk of ruin. Most AP’s that aren’t meth-head hustlers RoR is going probably going to be inconsequential on utx so much less gain than a 2:1 ratio. We get it though you’re nittier about variance than most, you’re “retired” and have said you won’t play certain games due to variance or pass on smaller edges.
Example being I just looked at a blackjack card counting simulation on cvcx with 0.0 RoR where edge is 1.25%, win rate per 100 hands is $191.46, CE is 149.27 or about 78% of EV. Doubling the bet amounts (same spread, edge, double EV) gives 1.1% RoR, $382.92 EV but $214.16 CE so CE dropped substantially from 78% to 56% (closer to your 2:1) by going from 0.0% RoR to 1.1%. Doubling it again the RoR rises substantially to 10.3%, and even though EV is now $765.84/100 and edge is the same the CE is $90.82, way lower than the original calculation that had only 1/4 the EV. Given that high multiple UTX plays are pretty high edge and inconsequential betting amounts to bankroll even with variance I would think most will be in that high CE range not equivalent to or 1.3:1 or less rather than 2:1.
I am going use single video blackjack with decent rules (deck reshuffles after every hand) and the variance is roughly 1.4 units. Even though you are flat betting, the variance is greater than 1 due to splits and double double and maybe DAS.
In Video poker, the benchmark game is 9/6 JoB and the variance is 19.51 units mainly due to the Royal Flush at 800 for 1.
In the 7/5 DDB game, the variance is 42.17 units (due to fat quads and quads with kickers) which is more than twice the variance for 9/6 JoB.
In the 9/6 & 7/5 games, it assumes max EV strategy at 5 coins.
Now, in UX mode for 7/5, the particular hand in question has 12X assuming the player kept the pat full house. Therefore, variance for the next hand is 12 * 42.17 units (assuming 5 coin wager) is way more than the single deck VBJ variance of 1.4 units. Btw, the highest payoff is $36,000 (36 Royal Flushes) on a $3.75 wager so the variance is insanely large.
So your claim of 1.3 : 1.0 ratio would not be be an appropriate comparison due to the vast difference in variance at flat betting.