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Thread: In the news today

  1. #1

  2. #2
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...ds/#post773318

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Last night, unable to find anything interesting on TV on 800 channels, I watched a few minutes of the horse racing channel. I am not a big horse racing guy, so maybe it was just total sports withdraw setting in.

    So I got to thinking about the difference between horse racing and sports betting regarding the odds you get.

    Sportsbetting you get the odds at the time you place the bet where as horse racing you get the odds based on when the event (race) goes off. This means that you can bet a 4-1 horse only to have some whale dump big money at the last second knocking your bet to even money or less.

    Just imagine with sportsbetting, you bet say the Eagles at +7.5, only to have the odds change and by game time you have the Eagles +2.5. Nobody would stand for that. The odds are set by the amount of wagers at the time the wager is placed, so why does horseracing change your odds based on wagered placed after your wager? It doesn't make sense to me and it surely doesn't make sense that two almost identical things horse racing and sportsbetting are handled completely differently.

    Any thoughts?
    All this time in Vegas and you don't know how Horse Racing Works???
    It has a pool called pari-mutuel betting.
    Sports Betting has a Vig and the Book Maker is just collecting a percentage of all the bets.

    You would think with all your Yiddish Talk, like Shyster, you would understand Vig.
    You would also think, with your Million Dollar Vegas Experience and love of Sports, you would understand the difference between Sports Betting and Race Betting.

    Concentrate on masking up and hiding in your apartment, crying about how the Chink Virus is the worst thing to happen in your lifetime.
    Last edited by monet; 06-29-2020 at 09:59 AM.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I probably should have used a moneyline sportsbet as my example rather than the Eagles +7.5 (where vig comes into play). Let's change the example to a bet on Eagles at +280 when placed and it moves to +135 by game time.

    Nobody would stand for that. Your wager is based on the odds at the time of the wager and those odds are based on what has been bet up until that point. I don't see why horseracing shouldn't be the same way. Why should wagers and the betting pool made after your wager effect your wager?
    You really are a Fucking Idiot.
    I don't understand how you can count Two Tables and make Millions of Dollars in Blackjack but you can't understand the difference between Sports Betting and Race Betting.

  4. #4
    Listen pork chop, you fat bastard, I understand how horseracing works. If you knew how to read, the question was "why"?

    Horse racing also takes a percentage off the top and distributes the rest of the pool among winning wagers. That is exactly what moneyline wagers do. The difference is moneyline sportsbets are calculated at the time of the wager, rather than includuing the money AFTER the wager. The question remains, why the difference?

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    It has a pool called pari-mutuel betting.
    Is the pool used to determine the payoffs only the wagers placed at the track, or a combination of track and remote site wagering?

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Horse racing also takes a percentage off the top and distributes the rest of the pool among winning wagers. That is exactly what moneyline wagers do.
    Haven't sports bettors won more than was wagered on the event?

  7. #7
    This has become more of an issue in the last few years. Your horse could be 5-1 when the race goes off, but will click down to 7/2 once the race has already started and the final clicks have been tallied up. Very frustrating but it happens when you have whales betting online and wait until the final possible minute to jam their bet in....on the flip side, you sometimes can bet a horse at 3-1 and have it go up to 4-1 or 9/2 after the race starts also

  8. #8
    Kewl--many years ago there was a great place that opened by the L.V. Hilton (at that time) called the Sport of Kings. It was supposed to be THE PLACE for horse betters. They tried to use fixed odds rather than parimutuel. They got murdered. The players are too good and buried them. They had other issues as well but the pros will murder anyone offering fixed odds.

    I was invited to play in the first big handicapping contest there. I went bust!! But for a couple months I went there as much as I could.

    Sadly, although I did ok, I wasn't good enough to bury them as it required too much discipline for me that I didn't have then.

    Good article about it.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/archi...-1bb435c6a839/

  9. #9
    Coach--includes on track and off track but not foreign books (and some local illegal books)that don't participate in the pool. For those, there are caps on the win so they don't get buried.

  10. #10
    What Keystone said is certainly correct. I'll take a few moments to address this a little bit.

    First, kewlJ, I suggest you start a similar thread over at WoV. I'll chime in over there a little. Regnis and keystone probably know as much as anybody over there, however.

    Second, keystone knows more than me regarding this, as I am no horse expert. Regnis knows much more than me, so if he feels like he wants to take the time here, he would be an excellent source.

    Anyway, here's some thoughts. The horse racing pari-mutuel take is enormous and always guarantees the track a profit race to race except in those rare circumstances like (in West Virginia) where minimum show returns are guaranteed regardless of pool ratios. Now, why should it be an enormous edge and pari-mutuel? Well, unlike sports betting, race tracks prior to casino/track hybridization were paying for the sports. They had to build the tracks, host the events, pay the people who work at the track. So they have to cover those costs, unlike sports books, who aren't worried about if the Eagles sold out or how to pay the vendors. That's one angle. The other angle is that horse racing, because of the inside knowledge and relatively small pools (compared to sports) would be horrifically vulnerable to arbitrage and middles-shots kinds of things. You can't have numbers winging all over the place because the way money gets pumped into pools, the numbers would be drastically different in the span of the 30 minutes leading up to the race. It would be business suicide to go non-pari-mutuel and not have stringent limits and rules in place.

    The way the tracks do it (pari-mutuel) predates point spreads historically. It's proven and safe.

    I speculate here, but if sports books could force people to just bet moneylines, that's what they would do. But spreads have been so established so long, the volume would get killed.

    Anyway, those a few quick thoughts. Horse racing is such a niche thing these days, as opposed to Guys and Dolls days, that it doesn't surprise me that kewlJ doesn't know this stuff. Why should he? It's not like horse racing is eminently beatable. When Betfair, with its millions of accounts, was forced in court to publicly show results a few years back, fewer than a dozen Betfair accounts had six digit profits. Out of millions.

    If you want a good movie that has some pari-mutuel betting history plotlines, check out The Grifters with Cusack.

    And Keystone is right -- when online horse wagering started providing the bulk of the volume, the odds you're looking at a minute to post may bear no resemblance to the final odds. It's all a crap shoot now as to what you'll really get paid. I cringe at the idea.

  11. #11
    Regnis -- I wrote the thing above while you were posting, so if I mucked it up, sorry. I defer to regnis on all things horse racing.

    And regnis, my girlfriend was a regular at Sport of Kings. That was her hangout. She still refers to it fondly. I probably went in there twice in my life, and I remember almost nothing about it.

  12. #12
    To add to that last sentence by Redietz, many whales now have the ability to wager huge amounts directly into the pools in milliseconds directly from their computer. Because of the amount that they bet, they go directly into the pool, not through a wagering site like the rest of us. So they have a computer analyzing all of the pools for overlays and then when an overlay is found it triggers the bet. No actual handicapping by the player. It is these huge amounts that cause the huge drop in odds right after the race goes.

    It is not past-posting as many suggest. it is just computer generated wagers.

    We used to past post at Maywood (RIP) but that is another story

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Regnis -- I wrote the thing above while you were posting, so if I mucked it up, sorry. I defer to regnis on all things horse racing.

    And regnis, my girlfriend was a regular at Sport of Kings. That was her hangout. She still refers to it fondly. I probably went in there twice in my life, and I remember almost nothing about it.
    She's probably the one that rejected my advances-lol. Not many females at that time.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Coach--includes on track and off track but not foreign books (and some local illegal books)that don't participate in the pool.
    How about US brick & mortar and online sports books?

    Is their handle all included into the pool?

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Coach--includes on track and off track but not foreign books (and some local illegal books)that don't participate in the pool.
    How about US brick & mortar and online sports books?

    Is their handle all included into the pool?
    I think all of the casinos have now gone to parimutuel because they no longer want any risk. All of your major online go into the parimutuel pool. There will always be a few foreign or illegal that book the bets rather than just funnel them through. But they won't take big wagers and they cap the payoffs.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    The difference is moneyline sportsbets are calculated at the time of the wager, rather than includuing the money AFTER the wager. The question remains, why the difference?
    ThatDonGuy explained it over on WOV...if the point spread or moneyline could change for your wager after the wager was made, enough of a move could change a winning bet into a losing bet.

    That can't happen with the horses, the odds can change, but the bet can't change from a winner into a loser.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    How about US brick & mortar and online sports books?

    Is their handle all included into the pool?
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I think all of the casinos have now gone to parimutuel because they no longer want any risk. All of your major online go into the parimutuel pool.
    Is all of that action reflected on the tote boards at the track?

  18. #18
    Yes-there are of course delays, but it is all reflected there eventually. The delay in getting the info from all the various sources is another reason why we see the suspicious drop after the race goes. But that is when the big $$ comes in so it looks worse than it actually is.

  19. #19
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    I hear that there's more money in "rolling dem bones".

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Yes-there are of course delays, but it is all reflected there eventually. The delay in getting the info from all the various sources is another reason why we see the suspicious drop after the race goes. But that is when the big $$ comes in so it looks worse than it actually is.
    And it`s not every horse`s odds in a race change after the race goes off...most of the time when you bet a horse with a minute or so to post, the odds will remain consistent after the race is over....it mostly occurs when you bet the same horse that the computer sharps hammer after you already place your bet

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