Originally Posted by
kewlJ
1.)
"If you have to consider your tip amount in EV, you do not have game." Any guesses as to what this means? Any AP who does decide to tip had better be tipping based on EV and not win. Any AP not doing it in this matter is likely over-tipping and may just be tipping away all his profits.
Let me expand on this point just a bit in reference to a card counter in 2019 era.
For a shoe game my EV is just about $1 a round. A little more for deeper than normal penetration and about $1.50/round for games that I track a second table (whether I jump or not). But for the sake of this discussion, let's just go with a very typical 6 deck game, where I am only tracking one table. Very average penetration of 75%. Really standard mediocre game, found in Vegas and many locations.
So I sit down with 2 other players. This means on average just over 11 cards will be dealt per round (2.75 per player and dealer per round) so with the cut coming at 230 cards in, I am looking at 21 rounds.
So the count goes positive early and hits my max bet trigger about 2 decks in. This means I will have 10 or 11 rounds at Max bet. A nice situation. So let's say I am extremely fortunate, win a majority of these max bet opportunities and end up $2000 ahead at the shuffle. Now since I have shown my max bet, that shuffle point is my exit trigger. I am not going to play anymore at this table (probably not this casino) having shown my bet spread.
So I am leaving up $2000 after 21 rounds. So what is an appropriate tip?
From the dealers perspective probably at least a green chip, maybe 2. Problem is my expected value, or expected win for those 21 rounds was $21. So a tip of $25 turns a +EV play into a negative EV play. If I tip at that rate every day, I am guaranteed to lose money by the end of the year, tipping away more than I earned.
So what about a red chip ($5). That would be 25% of my expected value.
That is still a lot of expected value to tip away, but suppose I did. I can guarantee, a $5 tip in that situation would be looked down on, maybe even worse than no tip...right dealer? (Bob21??)
Second issue is why am I tipping as I am leaving? What does that do for me?
Lastly, suppose I don't want to tip when leaving because I see no benefit. The alternative is to tip a few hands for the dealer as you are playing, so he is playing along with you. Again what is the appropriate amount? I am going to tip 2-3 hands of $5 of this 21 round play that is worth $21 to me? Again, THAT is tipping away most of my expected value or expected win. God forbid, I tip a few white ($1 chips) on hands that I am max betting, say $400. Again, this just isn't appreciated at all. even looked down on as worse than not tipping.
The bottom line is tips have to be a portion (very small portion) of "expected win" otherwise, you are tipping away all your profits and no dealer can understand that because 99% have no clue about EV.
So it is a no win situation in 2019 for a card counter. I mean maybe if we could roll back the clock, 30 years to when players sat at one table and played for 3-4 hours that would be different. Under that circumstance, with the game mentioned, I would accumulate probably $75, $80 an hour maybe $100, if the dealer was fast enough. In 3-4 hours, I would have $300-$400 in EV and could afford to tip $25 or $50. But this is 2019 and for a card counter that means short hit and run style, short sessions, and tipping isn't conducive with this style. It really isn't.