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Thread: Las Vegas Sportsbook

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    I've been reading more on the subject of the Sportsbook and how to beat it.
    Turns out that when you look at the numbers its a horror show.

    You can beat it but the odds are insurmountable just clearly looking at the math and what is required.
    Talk about depressing.
    You literally need 100 bets per month.
    You need to pick 53% winners.
    The difference between picking 53% and 54% winners is millions of dollars.
    Even the best of the best have a hard time averaging a 55% win rate.
    The pain goes on and on.
    On paper, it is one of the biggest mountains to climb that I think I have ever seen from a gambling standpoint.
    It's not impossible and a select few do beat it but at best if you work your ass off it is more of a supplemental hobby.
    The individual has to shop around to get the best line every single time and should get every promotion possible.
    You basically need fixed games, inside information or you have to cheat in some fashion... like they do at online poker.

    Let's say you want to make 50k per year.
    You need at least a 500k bankroll dedicated to sports only.
    You need to bet about 100 bets per month and win 53% of the time.
    You really need to win 54% of the time when you look at it.
    You'll have to average about 1500 dollars per bet if you are laying juice.
    You have to find the dogs... You have to find the dogs.... ummm yeah, you have to find the dogs.
    You need kickbacks in some form.
    None of this is new information but after refreshing my memory I realize why I dismiss this line of work.
    Ok Redietz, the individual may want to stop betting parlays no matter how fun they are as you will need to pick 55% to overcome the cut in payback.
    Better late than never. Great post!

    Redietz, must be really good to keep his customers happy. Not only does he have to make up the built-in house vig, but he also has to make up his own fee structure to make the subscribers return.

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Redietz, must be really good to keep his customers happy. Not only does he have to make up the built-in house vig, but he also has to make up his own fee structure to make the subscribers return.
    Yeah, I edited my post while you were posting.
    I covered that topic about paying for a sports picking service.
    Talk about a conflict of interest!
    I guess your work and personal life don't have to go hand in hand!?
    Sort of like being a contract killer for the mob and going home to the wife and kids who are oblivious to what you do for a living.
    I'm not against people having a business touting sports and feasting off the carcasses of suckers but I am against people who promote themselves as some do gooder while they are clearly doing Satan's Work.
    Last edited by monet; 03-07-2021 at 08:09 AM.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Redietz, must be really good to keep his customers happy. Not only does he have to make up the built-in house vig, but he also has to make up his own fee structure to make the subscribers return.
    Yeah, I edited my post while you were posting.
    I covered that topic about paying for a sports picking service.
    Talk about a conflict of interest!
    I guess your work and personal life don't have to go hand in hand!?
    Sort of like being a contract killer for the mob and going home to the wife and kids who are oblivious to what you do for a living.
    I'm not against people having a business touting sports and feasting off the carcasses of suckers but I am against people who promote themselves as some do gooder while they are clearly doing Satan's Work.
    How does one of his subscribers get even with him for losing the mortgage payment? Well since his real name and address is well-publicized "LOL" you go to his home with a chain saw and start the cuts that the wind will end up finishing landing those trees in the proper direction.

  4. #44
    After all your research Monet, the obvious conclusion is to stop betting parlays, with the overwhelming odds to overcome. Take the money your already up and Run for the hills

  5. #45
    Originally Posted by Ozzy View Post
    After all your research Monet, the obvious conclusion is to stop betting parlays, with the overwhelming odds to overcome. Take the money your already up and Run for the hills
    You make a good point.
    It gets more difficult to even want to try the more you research the subject.
    Takes all the fun out of it.
    Course Ego does get in the way.
    Perhaps if I get back to +3900 I might quit.
    The thread has some entertainment value for me.
    However, the idea of having to bet 3.3 games per day and show a win rate of 54% brings things down to reality.
    Of course if you can constantly bet the dogs you won't have to show nearly as big of a win rate.
    The real problem is getting kickbacks or something on the backside.
    I feel that I really need that or I really miss getting something for my total action in the book.
    How long before the Fun Stops ??
    If the Fun Stops for you please call The Problem Gamblers HelpLine at 1-800-522-4700

  6. #46
    Monet wrote:

    "The real problem is getting kickbacks or something on the backside.
    I feel that I really need that or I really miss getting something for my total action in the book."



    I'm sure that after a few more months of doing this you will be getting free $1000 bottles of wine.

  7. #47
    When Richard Munchkin (GWAE/BJHOF) mentions APs making 9 figures betting the horses (non-brick and mortar) I think he is referring to people like Bill Benter. Like Monet wrote, a very small number of people beat the shit out of sports betting, but I highly doubt any of these few post or even read VCT.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code



  8. #48
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    I'm sure that after a few more months of doing this you will be getting free $1000 bottles of wine.
    lol... Good Needle.
    Don't forget that I was buying a bunch of Louis Trey too.
    That's high powered Gasoline!

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    When Richard Munchkin (GWAE/BJHOF) mentions APs making 9 figures betting the horses (non-brick and mortar) I think he is referring to people like Bill Benter. Like Monet wrote, a very small number of people beat the shit out of sports betting, but I highly doubt any of these few post or even read VCT.
    It's not really fair talking about Bill Benter.
    Best of the Best.
    Isn't he making 100 Million Per Year betting horses/sports or black jack?
    You never know what is really going on behind the scenes.
    You think you can be that successful without serious headaches and problems?
    No sleep, eyes in the back of your head at all times

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    When Richard Munchkin (GWAE/BJHOF) mentions APs making 9 figures betting the horses (non-brick and mortar) I think he is referring to people like Bill Benter. Like Monet wrote, a very small number of people beat the shit out of sports betting, but I highly doubt any of these few post or even read VCT.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code


    Regnis the horsebetting version of Redeitz.

  11. #51
    Interesting story about Dice Control.
    Many members do not believe or shun dice control but I'm rarely 100% about dismissing anything.
    I've seen too many goofy things in my life to say things aren't possible.
    I wouldn't doubt that it is possible but you have to be dedicated.
    10 years of constant practice.
    Who knows if the story is true or urban legend but I like to imagine that it is real.
    It reminds me of a far more dedicated version of myself.
    I'm too lazy for planning such a masterpiece.
    Notice how the kid got a job inside the Casino to case them.
    I love that.
    That's dedication!
    The story runs for about the first 3 and a half minutes.
    The whole clip is pretty good though.

    Last edited by monet; 03-07-2021 at 09:30 AM.

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Isn't he making 100 Million Per Year betting horses/sports or black jack?
    You never know what is really going on behind the scenes.
    You think you can be that successful without serious headaches and problems?
    No sleep, eyes in the back of your head at all times
    I'm not sure what he makes per year Monet (on BJ and Horses/Sports) - but $USD100M/year sounds quite reasonable. Not many people can make James Grosjean look like a run of the mill AP and those who can are mostly unknown I would guess (kind of like Teflon Ron at a regular AP level except Teflon Ron does post once in a blue moon - the rest of the time he is just getting on with kicking ass). I don't see how a person wouldn't have issues if they set themselves up to make the kind of money he is making. The satisfaction of beating the man that he gets allows him to put up with that much shit I guess.

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    I'm not sure what he makes per year Monet (on BJ and Horses/Sports) - but $USD100M/year sounds quite reasonable. Not many people can make James Grosjean look like a run of the mill AP and those who can are mostly unknown I would guess (kind of like Teflon Ron at a regular AP level except Teflon Ron does post once in a blue moon - the rest of the time he is just getting on with kicking ass). I don't see how a person wouldn't have issues if they set themselves up to make the kind of money he is making. The satisfaction of beating the man that he gets allows him to put up with that much shit I guess.
    You could be right.
    I'm way out of my depth.
    I do know that the theory of the Helots is real.
    I was much more free and happy when I had no material possessions.
    In the end we all die broke.

    I do enjoy the freedom of posting here though.
    It's sort of like a video game for me.
    I probably need to tone down on the bragging though.
    I apologize.

    Truth be told, I suppose it is a bit of an outlet to talk about gambling.
    I don't have many outlets for that subject.
    I figured they would of banned me on this forum long ago.
    I would of lost that bet.

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    I'm not sure what he makes per year Monet (on BJ and Horses/Sports) - but $USD100M/year sounds quite reasonable. Not many people can make James Grosjean look like a run of the mill AP and those who can are mostly unknown I would guess (kind of like Teflon Ron at a regular AP level except Teflon Ron does post once in a blue moon - the rest of the time he is just getting on with kicking ass). I don't see how a person wouldn't have issues if they set themselves up to make the kind of money he is making. The satisfaction of beating the man that he gets allows him to put up with that much shit I guess.
    You could be right.
    I'm way out of my depth.
    I do know that the theory of the Helots is real.
    I was much more free and happy when I had no material possessions.
    In the end we all die broke.

    I do enjoy the freedom of posting here though.
    It's sort of like a video game for me.
    I probably need to tone down on the bragging though.
    I apologize.
    Telling good stories ain't bragging IMHO. Maybe Blaine (great clip, thanks) is talking about the guy who Alan saw make 18YOs .

  15. #55
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Telling good stories ain't bragging IMHO. Maybe Blaine (great clip, thanks) is talking about the guy who Alan saw make 18YOs .
    he, he... good one.
    That is a good story.
    15 hours a day practicing dice.
    Moves to Vegas at 12 so he can meet the best Card Cheat living.
    I love the romance of the story.
    Reminds me of me going to the Vegas Night at the Firehouse/Carnival back in PA.
    Losing all my paper route money and going back to the house to get the dues money.
    Losing all that money.
    Losing my job.
    Getting bailed out by my Aunt.
    Losing my friend and being shunned by his mother.
    All at 9 years old.
    And people say that destiny doesn't exist.
    Bah.

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Let's say you want to make 50k per year.
    You need at least a 500k bankroll dedicated to sports only.
    You need to bet about 100 bets per month and win 53% of the time.
    You really need to win 54% of the time when you look at it.
    You'll have to average about 1500 dollars per bet if you are laying juice.
    Against -110 lines, winning 53% of the time is a little less than 1.2% edge. That means someone would need to make over $4.2 million in bets to earn $50,000. Making 100 bets per month would mean each bet should be $3,500. I find making 100 bets or more per week to be the best way to move past this sticking point.

    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    You have to find the dogs... You have to find the dogs.... ummm yeah, you have to find the dogs.
    Find anything with value. For various reasons, that tends to be dogs. Take the 1% edge bets you see everyday. And some days there might be 10% edges available.

    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    You need kickbacks in some form.
    Kickbacks can definitely help. And it can be huge. If there is zero edge on the bet, then points / cashback, etc. means there is an edge. Unfortunately this isn't 2004 offshore betting, where breaking even could mean winning 10% just on the bonuses they were offering


    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Ok Redietz, the individual may want to stop betting parlays no matter how fun they are as you will need to pick 55% to overcome the cut in payback.
    Parlays do not change the math of what is breakeven, what is losing, and what is profitable. They magnify the profits and losses, simply by increasing the action.

    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Paying for sports picks only compounds the problem.
    If you pay for your picks you will have to have a win rate of at least 55% but most likely you will need a 56% win rate.
    I used to joke around but now I feel that Touts or Touting Services are Evil Incarnate.
    Talk about Vampires.
    Integrity Sports My Ass!
    lol INTEGRITY... talk about oxymoron.
    Let's make these bastards pay juice on top of the juice they are already paying.
    Evil Carpetbagger Bullshit.
    How do you live with yourself promoting that type of business and claim you are some progressive social justice warrior??
    Fuck.
    It makes Slavery look like kindergarten.
    I do love talking to those guys on the phone. I wish they would call more often. From now on, every time I hear a radio commercial for them, I am going to call.

  17. #57
    100 bets a week!?
    Thanks for depressing me further.
    I'm having a difficult enough time getting dressed and driving to the book to bet on one game.
    And maybe 3 or 4 straight bets total.
    Obviously, I'm way over my head and drowning.
    Just out of my depth.
    Might as well just jump from the bridge.
    Your post is spot on.
    Are you Tom from WoV?
    The one that ate all those Nuggets?

    Ok so at those numbers.
    350 dollar bets, 100 per month.
    53% win rate against a -110 line average.
    I should hope to make 5k per year.
    Not very attractive when put into this perspective.
    Last edited by monet; 03-07-2021 at 11:33 AM.

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Telling good stories ain't bragging IMHO. Maybe Blaine (great clip, thanks) is talking about the guy who Alan saw make 18YOs .
    I love the romance of the story.
    Reminds me of me going to the Vegas Night at the Firehouse/Carnival back in PA.
    Losing all my paper route money and going back to the house to get the dues money.
    Losing all that money.
    Losing my job.
    Getting bailed out by my Aunt.
    Losing my friend and being shunned by his mother.
    All at 9 years old.
    And people say that destiny doesn't exist.
    Bah.
    You lost your little friend, but there is a lesson to be learned here. Choose your friends wisely, you see if at that time your little friend was named AxelWolf he would have given you all his money and the keys to his house.

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    You lost your little friend, but there is a lesson to be learned here. Choose your friends wisely, you see if at that time your little friend was named AxelWolf he would have given you all his money and the keys to his house.
    Ok... nice jab.
    Giving AW a needle at the same time.
    Two For the Price of One!

    We just had a falling out.
    Difference of opinion.
    End of an Era so to speak.
    He said that I only have what I have because I stepped on a mountain of people to get it.
    I told him don't bother me anymore... you're blocked and deleted.
    I think it is more about me not drinking anymore.
    People who drink need a drinking buddy.
    For a long time he was far ahead of me in many aspects of life.
    I ended up eclipsing him.
    Some people need someone to wallow around in the mud with.
    I think I wasn't as fun anymore.
    I'm pretty sure I could touch base and we could squash our beef.
    Vice Versa would work too if he contacted me.
    I think we are just on different paths currently.
    He owes me 1000 dollars so if anyone can collect it, they can keep it.
    I wrote off the debt long ago.
    I would take it though if he handed it to me.
    Hard to insist on a guy paying you back 1000 dollars when he gave you a gift of 20k just because in the past prior.
    Course from his and my perspective a Gift is completely different than a Loan.
    You really shouldn't or can't hold a gift over someone's head.

    Thinking about it and what Ozzy posted the other day...
    It is true that I am very brash in person.
    I call Fags, Faggots to their face.
    I do get a little offensive from time to time.
    I have some good qualities too though.
    I'm not a complete monster.
    Yet.
    Last edited by monet; 03-07-2021 at 01:58 PM.

  20. #60
    In a state without legalized sports betting the poker world is crawling with books. These guys are often not near as sharp as online books and/or regulated casinos. There are also times when certain sports with certain bet types have weaknesses someone discovers. Maybe it is all bullshit though so they can freeroll off of your capital. I've known some rec bettors who just get by stiffing their bookies. Eventually they run out of bookies but they're easily +EV til then. lol only half way joking but I also know guys beating sports betting. The bookies dealing with 95% of bettors literally having no clue how to win or not caring.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

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