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Thread: Dan Druff's 2022-23 NFL picks

  1. #41
    You're a patient man, redietz. I can't bring myself to bet futures. I like the action and the quick conclusion of my bets.

    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #42
    Here's my NFL wagers for this lovely Sunday.

    Seattle +195 at Chargers
    Jacksonville -3 -120 vs Giants
    Carolina vs Tampa Bay - Under 39
    Denver vs Jets - Under 37
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #43
    The Jets/Denver has potential to be among the all-time ugly-fests, but I am waiting until the number hits the nadir to tease the Over. So we'll see how much nausea I can handle for that wager.

  4. #44
    Well, I did fill the second half of an open teaser with Over 29 1/2. Then hedged half of it with Under 19 at halftime because it's as ugly as advertised. I'm going to take a half unit loss on this mess, I think.

  5. #45
    Chargers are so overrated, and I'm going to keep fading them. Seattle blew most of their early lead after losing Metcalf in the late 1st, but are still holding on 24-14 in the mid-3rd at the moment. Chargers strength of schedule has been a joke thus far.

    Seattle was looking like a team to keep backing, but if Metcalf is out significant time, this could change things.

    Tampa under hit. Brady is really looking bad this season. Jacksonville was up 4 in the late 4th, but couldn't hold back the Giants, who have been too good this year. Weird line in the first place with NY being the dog. The ploppies feel really smart right now having bet the Giants.

    If the under with Denver/Jets holds, and Seattle doesn't blow the game-long lead, this will end up a good day.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Jacksonville was up 4 in the late 4th, but couldn't hold back the Giants, who have been too good this year. Weird line in the first place with NY being the dog. The ploppies feel really smart right now having bet the Giants.
    I didn't want to say anything but since you called me a dirty word I actually bet a Shitton on the Giants Money Line.
    I also bet Cinci, Dallas and the Titans to cover.
    Great day to be a ploppy.
    I think Miami will kill Pittsburgh tonight.

  7. #47
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Chargers are so overrated, and I'm going to keep fading them. Seattle blew most of their early lead after losing Metcalf in the late 1st, but are still holding on 24-14 in the mid-3rd at the moment. Chargers strength of schedule has been a joke thus far.

    Seattle was looking like a team to keep backing, but if Metcalf is out significant time, this could change things.

    Tampa under hit. Brady is really looking bad this season. Jacksonville was up 4 in the late 4th, but couldn't hold back the Giants, who have been too good this year. Weird line in the first place with NY being the dog. The ploppies feel really smart right now having bet the Giants.

    If the under with Denver/Jets holds, and Seattle doesn't blow the game-long lead, this will end up a good day.
    Monet and I exchanged a few comments regarding how to go anti-Brady earlier this season. The three QBs with the best lifetime ATS records heading into this season were Brady, Rodgers, and Wilson, which made them all un-takeable to me. No value.

    Jacksonville really butchered that game. Up four with fourth-and-one and six minutes left at the Giant 20, they elect to go for it. This is the NFL, guys. That was poor. Something Urban would have done. That game really hurt me in various no spread contests. There are legions of Giants backers and losing a game like that can cost you a hundred slots.

  8. #48
    Chargers offensive line is shot to hell. No easy fix for that.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Here's my NFL wagers for this lovely Sunday.

    Seattle +195 at Chargers
    Jacksonville -3 -120 vs Giants
    Carolina vs Tampa Bay - Under 39
    Denver vs Jets - Under 37


    Another real good day, Dan. Congrats.

    Don't be shy about posting that overall NFL record. It's extraordinary.

    The JVille game, as I bitched about previously, had the JVille coaching staff up four and facing fourth-and-one at the NYG 20 with about six minutes left. They went for it.

    I don't care what overall analytics say. You are in a 17-13 game. Points and yards are hard in this game. Take the FG.

  10. #50
    Record in NFL, first 7 weeks:

    Week 1:
    1-0, +1.51 units

    Week 2:
    6-1-1, +4.53 units

    Week 3:
    6-1, +5.89 units

    Week 4:
    4-0, +3.73 units

    Week 5:
    1-2, -1.09 units

    Week 6:
    4-2, +2.87 units

    Week 7:
    3-1, +2.77 units

    Total through 7 weeks: 25-7-1, +20.21 units

    A start for the ages.

    At my peak, I was 18-2-1, +16.57 units.

    However, I have still gone 7-5, +3.64 units since then, so it's not like I'm slumping.

    Also notable is that, of the 7 losses, six of them were either leading at some point in the 4th quarter or I lost by 0.5-1 points (or both). Out of 33 picks so far, I've only had one bad one (Saints in week 2), but that was made before a key injury. So if you take out that one (because of the unexpected injury after making the pick), all 32 picks either won or were close.

    I don't think I'll ever be able to duplicate this.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #51
    Arizona +165 at Minnesota
    Houston -110 vs Tennessee
    Washington at Indianapolis - Under 39.5
    Green Bay at Buffalo - Under 47
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Arizona +165 at Minnesota
    Houston -110 vs Tennessee
    Washington at Indianapolis - Under 39.5
    Green Bay at Buffalo - Under 47
    Dan has had a spectacular opening seven weeks. I guess we'll find out if Willis is ready for the big time today. The Arizona line may be value-boosted because they have an 0-9 straight up run in Minnesota and 0-4 or 0-5 ATS vs. Vikings going into the game.

    It makes me sick to have had to take a side in Tennessee at Houston. No idea what to expect.

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Arizona +165 at Minnesota
    Houston -110 vs Tennessee
    Washington at Indianapolis - Under 39.5
    Green Bay at Buffalo - Under 47
    Dan has had a spectacular opening seven weeks. I guess we'll find out if Willis is ready for the big time today. The Arizona line may be value-boosted because they have an 0-9 straight up run in Minnesota and 0-4 or 0-5 ATS vs. Vikings going into the game.

    It makes me sick to have had to take a side in Tennessee at Houston. No idea what to expect.
    After a quarter, it looks as if this Titans game will give the Bronco/Colt 12-9-fest a run for its money. Going blind.

    I was at such a loss to pick a winner, I took one side in the Northbet contest and the other side in Topbet. I couldn't put money on this thing if it was monet's.

    I am reminded of the old Castaways Contest in Las Vegas, where you had to pick an ATS winner in every game. It was the forerunner of the SuperBook Contest. Tough to know you have serious consequences riding on these matchups.

  14. #54
    Lost both moneylines, won both totals last week. Arizona was briefly ahead, but fell apart. Houston is just awful.

    No opinion on the game tonight.

    Current record: 27-9-1, +20.03 units
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #55
    Got 4 picks today.

    Washington +150 vs Minnesota
    Buffalo at Jets - Under 45.5
    Tennessee at Kansas City - Under 45.5
    Rams at Tampa - Under 42.5 -107
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #56
    Almost went 4-0. The Redskins, up 17-7 in the 4th, just played horribly the rest of the way, and fell 20-17 in the final seconds.

    The three unders covered. Went 3-1, +1.75 units

    I'm now 30-10-1, +21.78 units
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #57
    While I am mixed on who will win this contest, I also think it will be an ugly contest with a low-ish score.

    Baltimore at New Orleans - Under 46
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #58
    Winner.

    Now 31-10-1, +22.69 units
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Winner.

    Now 31-10-1, +22.69 units

    Spectacular. Best NFL run I have seen in 45 years of doing this. What I really like is you don't fall into a routine. You attack what you perceive as the proper plays, whether money line, totals, or sides.

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Winner.

    Now 31-10-1, +22.69 units

    Spectacular. Best NFL run I have seen in 45 years of doing this. What I really like is you don't fall into a routine. You attack what you perceive as the proper plays, whether money line, totals, or sides.
    Thanks.

    Betanysports took notice. They dropped my limits by 90%.

    I've stayed away from any picks I felt were marginal. That's why sometimes I make no picks on the Monday and Thursday night games.

    Even though I'm not as hot as I was with the 18-2-1 start, I've still been a respectable 13-8 since then, and in fact I've been 13-6 in my last 19.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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