Originally Posted by
Alan Mendelson
My "crap" Dan is often asking the so-called APs to justify their claims such as plays worth $800 an hour or... OMG here we go again... that accumulating +EV spiel.
Instead of getting real answers I get blasted and you have the nerve to first ban these people and then allow them back because you want to be part of the AP secret society.
Maybe you want to explain the $800 an hour plays and accumulating EV while losing thousands of dollars?
The problem is that a lot of this can't be explained without giving away plays to the public, which ruins them very quickly.
I know you'll say that's a copout, but that's the truth.
I'll give you a simple example.
Let's say I found a machine at the Rio which is Jacks or Better, but is set to 10/8 instead of 9/5.
This would be a +EV machine, and I'd play it all day and night.
If I found such a machine, do you think I'd post it up here?
Obviously not. Word would spread, and not only would it be very difficult for me to get a seat at that machine (other APs would swarm it), but soon enough the casino would audit the play, realize a disproportionate amount is coming on that machine, and figure out the mistake. And the play would be dead.
Some form of this happens all the time.
Now, yes, some APs will brag about winning a fortune, when in reality they're losing or just getting by. That's because the AP world is sometimes a pissing contest (as you've seen both here and WoV), and few want to say that they're losing or barely winning, or it makes them look incompetent (even if they're just on the wrong side of variance). While it's true that some will falsify their results when posting on these forums, for the most part the +EV plays they talk about are real and legit.
If you pay close enough attention, you will realize that.