Yeah, I edited my post while you were posting.
I covered that topic about paying for a sports picking service.
Talk about a conflict of interest!
I guess your work and personal life don't have to go hand in hand!?
Sort of like being a contract killer for the mob and going home to the wife and kids who are oblivious to what you do for a living.
I'm not against people having a business touting sports and feasting off the carcasses of suckers but I am against people who promote themselves as some do gooder while they are clearly doing Satan's Work.
Last edited by monet; 03-07-2021 at 08:09 AM.
How does one of his subscribers get even with him for losing the mortgage payment? Well since his real name and address is well-publicized "LOL" you go to his home with a chain saw and start the cuts that the wind will end up finishing landing those trees in the proper direction.
After all your research Monet, the obvious conclusion is to stop betting parlays, with the overwhelming odds to overcome. Take the money your already up and Run for the hills
You make a good point.
It gets more difficult to even want to try the more you research the subject.
Takes all the fun out of it.
Course Ego does get in the way.
Perhaps if I get back to +3900 I might quit.
The thread has some entertainment value for me.
However, the idea of having to bet 3.3 games per day and show a win rate of 54% brings things down to reality.
Of course if you can constantly bet the dogs you won't have to show nearly as big of a win rate.
The real problem is getting kickbacks or something on the backside.
I feel that I really need that or I really miss getting something for my total action in the book.
How long before the Fun Stops ??
If the Fun Stops for you please call The Problem Gamblers HelpLine at 1-800-522-4700
Monet wrote:
"The real problem is getting kickbacks or something on the backside.
I feel that I really need that or I really miss getting something for my total action in the book."
I'm sure that after a few more months of doing this you will be getting free $1000 bottles of wine.
When Richard Munchkin (GWAE/BJHOF) mentions APs making 9 figures betting the horses (non-brick and mortar) I think he is referring to people like Bill Benter. Like Monet wrote, a very small number of people beat the shit out of sports betting, but I highly doubt any of these few post or even read VCT.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code
It's not really fair talking about Bill Benter.
Best of the Best.
Isn't he making 100 Million Per Year betting horses/sports or black jack?
You never know what is really going on behind the scenes.
You think you can be that successful without serious headaches and problems?
No sleep, eyes in the back of your head at all times
Interesting story about Dice Control.
Many members do not believe or shun dice control but I'm rarely 100% about dismissing anything.
I've seen too many goofy things in my life to say things aren't possible.
I wouldn't doubt that it is possible but you have to be dedicated.
10 years of constant practice.
Who knows if the story is true or urban legend but I like to imagine that it is real.
It reminds me of a far more dedicated version of myself.
I'm too lazy for planning such a masterpiece.
Notice how the kid got a job inside the Casino to case them.
I love that.
That's dedication!
The story runs for about the first 3 and a half minutes.
The whole clip is pretty good though.
Last edited by monet; 03-07-2021 at 09:30 AM.
I'm not sure what he makes per year Monet (on BJ and Horses/Sports) - but $USD100M/year sounds quite reasonable. Not many people can make James Grosjean look like a run of the mill AP and those who can are mostly unknown I would guess (kind of like Teflon Ron at a regular AP level except Teflon Ron does post once in a blue moon - the rest of the time he is just getting on with kicking ass). I don't see how a person wouldn't have issues if they set themselves up to make the kind of money he is making. The satisfaction of beating the man that he gets allows him to put up with that much shit I guess.
You could be right.
I'm way out of my depth.
I do know that the theory of the Helots is real.
I was much more free and happy when I had no material possessions.
In the end we all die broke.
I do enjoy the freedom of posting here though.
It's sort of like a video game for me.
I probably need to tone down on the bragging though.
I apologize.
Truth be told, I suppose it is a bit of an outlet to talk about gambling.
I don't have many outlets for that subject.
I figured they would of banned me on this forum long ago.
I would of lost that bet.
he, he... good one.
That is a good story.
15 hours a day practicing dice.
Moves to Vegas at 12 so he can meet the best Card Cheat living.
I love the romance of the story.
Reminds me of me going to the Vegas Night at the Firehouse/Carnival back in PA.
Losing all my paper route money and going back to the house to get the dues money.
Losing all that money.
Losing my job.
Getting bailed out by my Aunt.
Losing my friend and being shunned by his mother.
All at 9 years old.
And people say that destiny doesn't exist.
Bah.
Against -110 lines, winning 53% of the time is a little less than 1.2% edge. That means someone would need to make over $4.2 million in bets to earn $50,000. Making 100 bets per month would mean each bet should be $3,500. I find making 100 bets or more per week to be the best way to move past this sticking point.
Find anything with value. For various reasons, that tends to be dogs. Take the 1% edge bets you see everyday. And some days there might be 10% edges available.
Kickbacks can definitely help. And it can be huge. If there is zero edge on the bet, then points / cashback, etc. means there is an edge. Unfortunately this isn't 2004 offshore betting, where breaking even could mean winning 10% just on the bonuses they were offering
Parlays do not change the math of what is breakeven, what is losing, and what is profitable. They magnify the profits and losses, simply by increasing the action.
I do love talking to those guys on the phone. I wish they would call more often. From now on, every time I hear a radio commercial for them, I am going to call.
100 bets a week!?
Thanks for depressing me further.
I'm having a difficult enough time getting dressed and driving to the book to bet on one game.
And maybe 3 or 4 straight bets total.
Obviously, I'm way over my head and drowning.
Just out of my depth.
Might as well just jump from the bridge.
Your post is spot on.
Are you Tom from WoV?
The one that ate all those Nuggets?
Ok so at those numbers.
350 dollar bets, 100 per month.
53% win rate against a -110 line average.
I should hope to make 5k per year.
Not very attractive when put into this perspective.
Last edited by monet; 03-07-2021 at 11:33 AM.
Ok... nice jab.
Giving AW a needle at the same time.
Two For the Price of One!
We just had a falling out.
Difference of opinion.
End of an Era so to speak.
He said that I only have what I have because I stepped on a mountain of people to get it.
I told him don't bother me anymore... you're blocked and deleted.
I think it is more about me not drinking anymore.
People who drink need a drinking buddy.
For a long time he was far ahead of me in many aspects of life.
I ended up eclipsing him.
Some people need someone to wallow around in the mud with.
I think I wasn't as fun anymore.
I'm pretty sure I could touch base and we could squash our beef.
Vice Versa would work too if he contacted me.
I think we are just on different paths currently.
He owes me 1000 dollars so if anyone can collect it, they can keep it.
I wrote off the debt long ago.
I would take it though if he handed it to me.
Hard to insist on a guy paying you back 1000 dollars when he gave you a gift of 20k just because in the past prior.
Course from his and my perspective a Gift is completely different than a Loan.
You really shouldn't or can't hold a gift over someone's head.
Thinking about it and what Ozzy posted the other day...
It is true that I am very brash in person.
I call Fags, Faggots to their face.
I do get a little offensive from time to time.
I have some good qualities too though.
I'm not a complete monster.
Yet.
Last edited by monet; 03-07-2021 at 01:58 PM.
In a state without legalized sports betting the poker world is crawling with books. These guys are often not near as sharp as online books and/or regulated casinos. There are also times when certain sports with certain bet types have weaknesses someone discovers. Maybe it is all bullshit though so they can freeroll off of your capital. I've known some rec bettors who just get by stiffing their bookies. Eventually they run out of bookies but they're easily +EV til then. lol only half way joking but I also know guys beating sports betting. The bookies dealing with 95% of bettors literally having no clue how to win or not caring.
It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"
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