more on accumualated EV. LOL

[Moses]

Boz wrote:

Give any of us 2k is expected value and we will make 2k over time. What part of that don’t you get.

What I "don't get" is that he dumped almost $30,000 in one week but is expecting to make $2,000 a week in the future and still earn $100,000?

Something doesn't add up... like the negative $30,000 lost last week PLUS the $2,000 of "expected profit" which he didn't make last week which means he's actually $32,000 behind in his $100,000 plan.

Agreed, but again, 52 weeks is a year. You are again putting a starting and ending time on it. KJ has said over and over it’s the long run. Some 2k EV weeks will be 3k and others will not be. But he will make it back over time.

He has shown over the years it averages out if and only if you are playing at an advantage.

It goes back to you and Singers obsession with win/loss goals and sessions. Total nonsense if you are playing with an advantage. And I do think deep down you understand this.

I had a great day. $3k. Maybe Im getting KJs EV.

[blackhole]

So Kewlj, after reading your long explanation on your clever maneuvers while surfing different casinos counting cards (post 41); would it be safe to say this strategy is the best way to withdraw $100,000.00 dollars a year and to remain undetected. After 15 years and still going strong completely undetected, do you understand why most here think you’re full of shit, especially after reading that post.

[RS__]

IME, no full time AP depends on a week’s worth or month’s worth of EV to pay any bills or whatever. That’s one reason why it’s important to have a decent sized bankroll, so you can fade the losses and not have to worry about making money in the short term. It’s kind of like a big long term investment where you’re not trying to or need to make money right NOW, but given time, you will.

Sucks to lose a lot of money in a short period of time and it’s not something anyone is really ever going to be “happy” about. Happens to everyone at one point or another. Oof

[Alan Mendelson]

Unfortunately for you long term APs the rest of the world is short term oriented. Rents and mortgages are paid minthly, along with utilities and car payments and credit cards. The IRS operates on a yearly basis. And no one uses EV as a medium of exchange.

You might say that Singer and I operate in the real world.

Or without the required bankroll to survive the key word.... variance.

Is that the best you could come up with?

[kewlJ]

So Kewlj, after reading your long explanation on your clever maneuvers while surfing different casinos counting cards (post 41); would it be safe to say this strategy is the best way to withdraw $100,000.00 dollars a year and to remain undetected. After 15 years and still going strong, do you understand why most here think you’re full of shit, especially after reading that post.

As, I was out and about today, I was thinking that post $41, probably wasn't such a great idea. Too much info, identifying info. I tend to do that. Returning home a few minutes ago, I see 2 emails from AP friends, one that doesn't participate here, but apparently reads, telling me the same thing. That post #41 was not a good idea. That is real AP's and real AP friends looking out for one another. Unfortunately Dan's odd rules here prevent me from now deleting the post to protect myself. That's ok. I posted it. I will deal with it.

And hopefully some players might find value in that information, because it is pretty good information. That fact that YOU don't see value in it, tells me everything I need to know about you.

[kewlJ]

20K in $100 chips is 200 chips
20k in $500 checks is 40 chips
20k in $1000 checks is 20 chips
etc...

Last I checked, when you buy in at a table with $100 check or more they say something to the floor man just the same as when you buy in for cash... Buying in with a $500 check they will do just the same and they may ask where you got it... Especially with a 1K 5K or 25K chip. Plus, wagering a $100 chip or more they usually tell the floor man.

Being that you don't post here often, you may not be familiar with my play. I play very short sessions. A hit and run style of play. When I win or lose 5 figures in a day it is over half dozen sessions, not one big sessions. So try dividing THAT out.

Also I don't "buy in" with chips I simply sit down and start playing with chips in hand. I don't exchange larger demon chips for smaller denom chips at the table. I already have the $25 and $100 chips that I want to play with.

[The Boz]

Unfortunately for you long term APs the rest of the world is short term oriented. Rents and mortgages are paid minthly, along with utilities and car payments and credit cards. The IRS operates on a yearly basis. And no one uses EV as a medium of exchange.

You might say that Singer and I operate in the real world.

Or without the required bankroll to survive the key word.... variance.

Is that the best you could come up with?

Yes because it’s the right answer. RS also said the same thing in more detail. Not sure what you don’t get.

Oh wait, it’s Alan. Never mind, you will argue anything.

[kewlJ]

Surely you’ve read enough posts to figure out that your curiosity if he’ll now bet more is retarded.

Of course he is not. That’s what you don’t get and why you get so much shit on here. 2k is his average week in value. And over time that will average out to 100k a year. Simple math.

Give any of us 2k is expected value and we will make 2k over time. What part of that don’t you get.

He can’t just pull 30k in EV out of his ass (Sorry KJ) or he would do it week after week. He finds 2k out there week after week. Unlike you or Singer he won’t chase loses. He knows the math, he will get it back.

What part of that is so hard for you to understand? Honestly Alan, I would love to know. He’s not a degenerate gambler.

All I can say is thank god for a few sane responses like this...a few normal people that know how to read and understand what is written. Kudos to RS_, Boz and a few others for keeping this site from going completely over the edge.

[Midwest Player]

KJ, the question everyone wants to know is "Did you have a winning day today?"

Oh, don't feel too bad about losing $30,000 last week. Jeff Bezos just lost $19.2 billion in the last two trading days.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-over-two-days

[Deech]

Unfortunately for you long term APs the rest of the world is short term oriented. Rents and mortgages are paid minthly, along with utilities and car payments and credit cards. The IRS operates on a yearly basis. And no one uses EV as a medium of exchange.

You might say that Singer and I operate in the real world.

What is a long term AP? Either you are or you aren't.

Hopefully, we all know the IRS will be around for a while. On a daily basis.

Who is using EV as a medium of exchange?


Crap, why am I sounding like Coach?

[kewlJ]

KJ, the question everyone wants to know is "Did you have a winning day today?"

I didn't really want to talk about this in real time like this, but .....very small winning day, less than 4 figures. Pretty good EV, about my average. BUT a very bad day. I'll bet you and a few of the BJ guys can guess why.

[Midwest Player]

KJ, the question everyone wants to know is "Did you have a winning day today?"

I didn't really want to talk about this in real time like this, but .....very small winning day, less than 4 figures. Pretty good EV, about my average. BUT a very bad day. I'll bet you and a few of the BJ guys can guess why.

Yeah, I can guess, but I don't know if I should post my guess. Anyway, I will post my guess, but don't feel you have to confirm it. I guess a "backoff."

Anyway Jeb Bezos lost 19 billion of his 127 billion net worth or about 15%. You lost $30,000 of your $500,000 net worth so only 6%. Hope this makes you feel better.

[kewlJ]

Yeah, I can guess, but I don't know if I should post my guess. Anyway, I will post my guess, but don't feel you have to confirm it. I guess a "backoff."

Anyway Jeb Bezos lost 19 billion of his 127 billion net worth or about 15%. You lost $30,000 of your $500,000 net worth so only 6%. Hope this makes you feel better.

Ok, I will neither confirm or deny. Except to say this. My game is about playing within the comfort levels of casinos. I am neither trying to trick them, nor fly under the radar, as some think. It is more about identifying and playing within levels that are better tolerated for that casino at that particular time. And all facets of my game are geared towards that goal. My betting limits and short sessions will generally keep both session wins and losses lower.

But every once in a while, try as I might, I sometimes experience a session that with both wins and losses that draw a little attention. If you have a session with an unusual number of max bet opportunities, which means a high count fairly early that remains high until the shuffle, I might just register a bigger than usual win (if I win majority of these max bets) or a bigger than usual loss (should I lose the majority of these max bet opportunities). Nothing you can do about it. These sessions occur. And they are when I am most exposed. Because I play short sessions, it is unlikely I get backed off during that session. But because the session drew attention, it is not unusual to experience consequences on a return visit.

So that's what I am going to say about that.

As for Mr Bezos, I can't speak for him, but I never felt bad about last weeks results. I guess Alan felt bad for me. I guess I appreciate that, but it wasn't necessary. I understand the game I play for a living and the variance involved. And I am now in a position, and play at levels where I can handle that variance, that is part of the game I play. I wasn't always in this position and used to fret the swings, but I can now handle them financially and mentally. I am in my 15th year, so I have been around this block a few times.

[Alan Mendelson]

Yes, I honestly felt bad for you kewlj. I think you're a smart player who unfortunately gets sucked in to some "rules" about playing and when the "rules" backfire there's no way out.

Despite all of the insults I receive here I've never lost $30,000 in a week. I can't begin to tell you how sick I would feel if it happened.

I also have rules about playing including win goals and loss limits, which you reject. Maybe you should reconsider them before lecturing me again about your +EV because last week your +EV just didn't work.

Here's a rule I use. I stop playing for the day when a "big win" can't wipe out previous losses. I'll explain:

If I'm playing craps a big win is hitting the ALL which at $5 pays $155 + $155 + $755 = $1065. So in craps my loss limit will be $1065 or less.

When playing 25-cent video poker a royal pays $1,000 and that's my loss limit, or less.

Frankly, my loss limits are always less now because I have a small budget.

But my point is you can't keep losing when the potential win can't quickly allow you to wipe out your losses.

Now the key question for you kewlj. I'm not a blackjack player. So how quickly can you regain that $30,000? Can you win it back in a week just like you lost that much in a week? Has it happened before that you quickly won back a previous big loss?

Those who use loss limits don't have the pressure of needing a big win. If I only lose $300 in a day playing $5 craps at Suncoast with their $5 ALL TALL SMALL bets, recovering from that $300 loss the next day is very possible and within reason... without being sick.

[kewlJ]

I will say this about stop/loss limits. They are fine for someone like you Alan. I don't mean that as a putdown. You describe yourself as a recreational player (hopefully playing within your means) and stop/loss limits are fine for that. They should enable such a recreational player to control his losses better.

But stop/loss limits have no place in the AP world. If you are playing with an advantage, you make money (in the long run) by playing as much as possible. Now there are exceptions. If a player is tired, he/she shouldn't continue playing. There could also be issues involving having available funds to continue playing. And in my case I employ some "triggers" to avoid those situations of over-exposure that I described a little while ago.

But just to stop because you have won or lost too much makes absolutely no difference, unless you never intend to play again. If you are going to play again, whatever is going to happen next (bet) is going to happen next, whether it is 2 minutes from now or 2 months from now.

I just cannot seem to impress upon you that variance is a part of this game. I have used the stock market analogy, and the rollercoaster analogy. Let me try the baseball analogy. So a baseball player is a .300 hitter. That's pretty good. Over a career that will get him in the baseball hall of fame. But every player that hit .300 for a season, had slumps that lasted many days, even weeks during that season. He surely had many games he went 0-4. But over the course of the year, if he bats .300, he has had a pretty damn successful year. Long-term. That is what it is about.

And it is the same with me. Last week. It was like being in a 1-22 slump as a hitter. I had 3 or 4, 0-4 games. But as a .300 hitter, over the course of the entire season, I will get where I need to be. In my case I am still there, even after my 1-22 slump. It's like I was batting .340, had a 1-22 slump and now am batting .310. That is pretty darn good for a .300 hitter.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm glad you wrote about .300 hitters. In baseball a .300 hitter is a hall of famer. But in the world of craps a .300 DI shooter is a charlatan. Ask V. LOL

[AxelWolf]

You might say that Singer and I operate in the real world.

And yet, you both seem to live in fantasy land.

[blackhole]

I just cannot seem to impress upon you that variance is a part of this game. I have used the stock market analogy, and the rollercoaster analogy. Let me try the baseball analogy.

I love when you compare counting cards to different analogy’s trying to explain variance. Especially when you use the stock market where I consider myself to be well informed with.

I suspect your analogy with anything to do with the stock market is based on what you heard and not experience. The stock market is way deeper than picking stocks or whatever and eventually in the long run your portfolio making a profit. The real money makers on Wall Street couldn’t make their fortunes without idiots like you investing in it.

You just keep trying to sound smart which might explain why you post so much on gambling forums. The only people you might be fooling or might be listening to you are your fellow AP cheerleaders. Newbies might be reading your nonsense with wide eyes. The rest of the educated world is laughing.

You have to feel sorry for the young that don't know any better and are looking for information for beating casinos. They come to these forums looking for easy fast cash and read this nonsense sending them into a pathetic future, instead of being properly advised to stay away. What are the true odds of retiring with security being an AP? KJ, you speak as if you made it already. You're not even half way there yet and have no confirmed facts you could even make it. Banking on the math against casino games for a future is about the dumbest thing I heard. You're living in a fantasy world.

You’re a card counting fool trying to beat the casinos at their own game. Obviously, you being able to allegedly maintain your game for 15 years all alone, confirms you’re meaningless to the casinos, and more than likely living day to day on the balls of your ass. Then you come here and pretend how you could lose all this money in a week and just laugh it off as expected.

Some day I truly believe you’ll look back at all this and say to yourself, “self, was I this much of a fucking idiot and not realizing it?”

[blackhole]

double post

[redietz]

I just cannot seem to impress upon you that variance is a part of this game. I have used the stock market analogy, and the rollercoaster analogy. Let me try the baseball analogy.

I love when you compare counting cards to different analogy’s trying to explain variance. Especially when you use the stock market where I consider myself to be well informed with.

I suspect your analogy with anything to do with the stock market is based on what you heard and not experience. The stock market is way deeper than picking stocks or whatever and eventually in the long run your portfolio making a profit. The real money makers on Wall Street couldn’t make their fortunes without idiots like you investing in it.

You just keep trying to sound smart which might explain why you post so much on gambling forums. The only people you might be fooling or might be listening to you are your fellow AP cheerleaders. Newbies might be reading your nonsense with wide eyes. The rest of the educated world is laughing.

You have to feel sorry for the young that don't know any better and are looking for information for beating casinos. They come to these forums looking for easy fast cash and read this nonsense sending them into a pathetic future, instead of being properly advised to stay away. What are the true odds of retiring with security being an AP? KJ, you speak as if you made it already. You're not even half way there yet and have no confirmed facts you could even make it. Banking on the math against casino games for a future is about the dumbest thing I heard. You're living in a fantasy world.

You’re a card counting fool trying to beat the casinos at their own game. Obviously, you being able to allegedly maintain your game for 15 years all alone, confirms you’re meaningless to the casinos, and more than likely living day to day on the balls of your ass. Then you come here and pretend how you could lose all this money in a week and just laugh it off as expected.

Some day I truly believe you’ll look back at all this and say to yourself, “self, was I this much of a fucking idiot and not realizing it?”

I ask myself similar questions bout people in the military reserve all the time. I had one friend, in the army reserve after three tours, he was just cruising along great, then got recalled for the last Iraq incursion. Wound up being a driver for a high muck-a-muck, about the most dangerous thing one could be assigned. All those years making all that money in the reserve, and now had to be asking himself, "self, was I this much of a fucking idiot and not realizing it?"

And another friend, in the naval reserve, after two previous tours, spent a decade in the reserve picking up checks. Was shot on one tour boarding a pirate ship; guy next to him was killed. And here he is, boarding pirate ships again. And these guys get paid way less than police.

Oh wait, blackhole, that's not what you meant? You meant that your worshipping at the altar of security should apply just to APs? My bad. Carry on. Some people might say you sound like a wussy, or a casino exec. Or that you have really messed up priorities about what matters in life. But not me.