Originally Posted by
Bob21
Originally Posted by
Moses
Actually it's 30.77% tens and 38.46%with Aces. This is why HiLo won't work in pitch games. For one thing, your spread is limited so you can't overcome the downturns of decks when Aces and Tens come out early. Now, with a column count, you can survive these decks until you get one to your advantage. Everyone knows that a deck rich in Tens/Aces is a good threshold. But few ask themselves "what don't I want remaining"? For advantage, the less 5s and 6s reduce your chances of getting 15 or 16 significantly. Therefore, it's not always about betting large in a deck rich in 10/Aces. Sometimes it's about accumulating funds by passing on large bets when the deck is also rich in another group.
Hence, you don't have to make bad bets back if you don't take the bait in the first place.
Moses, I’m intrigued by your counting system and seen you discussed in on other forums. Could you please elaborate more on it? How many side counts do you use? Do you only side count 5 and 6s? What about 7s? Is side counting saying the same thing as what you’re calling a column count? I use Hilo on pitch games but would like to expand it to gain a better advantage. Thanks!
Bob. A column count groups the cards played. Then it's a matter of knowing the percentage played and the percentage that still remain. This replaces the math needed to determine the true count. Basically, I've replaced memory for math and exact for estimate. There are no side counts. Well, the Aces are counted and side counted. I mean you wouldn't want to make a max bet if the deck were exhausted of Aces.
A column count encompasses every card in the deck and assigns a group tag value. A percentage count assigns a tag value to certain cards and then decisions are made on what percentage of the tag values that you chose to assign are played and remain. Still with me? lol
A column count is design for deeper pen, not as good as the old days, but better pen than you can get in most of todays games. So 2-4s and 5-7s are assigned a value of 1. 89 is -.5 each. 10s and Aces are -1. So, I count like this. 5-2-6-6 thumb touching index finger. This tells me 4 tens are played; 2 8 or 9s are played; 6 5-7s and 6 2-4s. and 1 Ace is played. This particular deck composition indicates my minimum requirement for betting two hands at just under casino tolerance. The tally reads 6 large card value played and 12 small card values played. Thus 60% large remain vs 40% small remain. Hence, a great value for the next round. If no large cards have been played we know the accumulated tag value is 0. Therefore, if 8 smalls are played we know the deck is 60% large remain and 40% small remain. Simply add 1 to the small card side and 1.5 to the large card side and the formula for your minimum value bet is 60%-40%. 0-8, 1.5-9, 3-10 all the way up to 13.5-17. I go just over casino tolerance at 67%. 0-12,2-13,4-14,6-15,8-16,10-17,12-18.
Now, why is the important? Well, it really isn't for the first half of the deck. Generally speaking, that's pretty much a crap shoot. But the deeper we go the better it gets. Why because I'm seeing cards differently than a HiLoist. Suppose I have 12,13, or 14 and the deck is loaded with 89s and 5-7s. I probably want to hit that hand vs dealer 2,3,4. Why not vs 5,6? Because this may prompt a twitchy dealer to start preferential shuffling on every deck. Hence, short pen to the point the game is no longer playable. In spite of what T3 professes, the risk is not worth the tradeoff because that overall outcome wouldn't change much anyway.
Suppose I have a max bet out on the last round of the deck. My 2nd hand is 16v8. I know all the 2-4s are gone. There is only 1 card in the entire deck, the 5, that will improve my position without breaking my hand. I stand and hope to hell the dealer has to hit from the only cards 5,6,7,8 that would force that motion.
You probably always hear me reference ducking is better than swatting. Here is why. Suppose the count above of 5-2-6-6 and 1 Ace played is instead 5-2-3-9. The risk is your betting into a deck composition that is also loaded with 5-7s. This is when you get that 15 and 17 for you two hand investment. Duck another hand and see if the crap doesn't come out. If it does, now swat with an even better deck composition. Again, this is based on the dealer tendencies and/or pen.
On a percentage count, I'm playing the best percentages possible with limited pen. This I know from reviewing line by line on more sims than I can remember and playing thousands of hands on Verite exactly the way I play in the casino. Keep it simple is what I picked up from KJ and RS. So we all know to bet into a deck rich in tens/Aces. But what few of us know is when NOT to bet even though the deck is rich in 10s/Aces. That's called ducking. In a percentage count the duck is built it. So you don't even know you're ducking. Nothing worse than getting 15 and 16 with a two hand max bet out. How do we minimize this? The answer is in the tag values. 2-8 are 0; 347 are 1; 5-6 are 1.5 and 9,10,A are -1 with the Aces side counted. The tag values add up to 48; 24 on each side.
Why is this important? Because 48 can be equally divided by 24,16,12,8,6,4, and 2. Therefore, it's very easy to define your ratios. Consequently, you are getting a higher percentage of value plays in a deck with about 63% pen. Quality vs Quantity is vital where you spread is limited. The card tag assignment says or indicates we want a deck rich in 9,10,A but also poor in 5 and 6. We don't care about the 2 or the 8. The minimum bet requirement are the exact same figures from the exact same formula. The only thing that has changed is the tags assigned. NOW, I can adjust to the dealer tendencies or change of dealers on the fly with the best application possible.
Now that I've totally lost you Bob. Any questions?
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