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Thread: Hi Opt II and Hilo for pitch games

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Okay Moses, here's the game and rules. DD with 60% pen and DAS, H17, double any two cards, split all pairs up to three times (four hands), and no surrender, with a 1 - 8 bet spread. With this game, how big of a difference is there between Hilo and Hi Opt II? While I know Hi Opt II will perform better, I'm sure Hilo will also give the player a winning game.
    .
    Questions: I assume Sweet 16 and Fab 4? What is your large bet frequency of bet 1 to 8? OR what intervals do you break it down?

    Bet frequency is a huge barometer when comparing counts.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-04-2019 at 09:55 PM.

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Okay Moses, here's the game and rules. DD with 60% pen and DAS, H17, double any two cards, split all pairs up to three times (four hands), and no surrender, with a 1 - 8 bet spread. With this game, how big of a difference is there between Hilo and Hi Opt II? While I know Hi Opt II will perform better, I'm sure Hilo will also give the player a winning game.
    .
    Questions: I assume Sweet 16 and Fab 4? What is your large bet frequency of bet 1 to 8? OR what intervals do you break it down?

    Bet frequency is a huge barometer when comparing counts.
    Yes, sweet 16. No need to use Fab 4 since there isn’t any surrender in my area. As far as bet frequency, I’d make max bet (8) at TC +5. The range would go from 1 to 8 ramping up to the max bet. Use your discretion and common ramps and rules where I haven’t given more presice info. Thanks!

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post

    Yes, sweet 16. No need to use Fab 4 since there isn’t any surrender in my area. As far as bet frequency, I’d make max bet (8) at TC +5. The range would go from 1 to 8 ramping up to the max bet. Use your discretion and common ramps and rules where I haven’t given more presice info. Thanks!
    Okay. I set it up for TC5+ $200 TC4 $150 TC3 $100 TC 2 $50. The results were SCORE 35.33 Winrate $45.83 That is a 24% bet frequency which is probably going to get you banned on a strong run to the upside.

    Hi OPT II w/ASC. I set up TC6+ $200 TC5 $150 TC4 $100 TC 3 $50 The results were SCORE 45.83 Winrate $60.65. Notice the change in TCs set. This was so it would reflect the same large bet frequency as Hi Lo.

    Questions?
    Last edited by Moses; 02-04-2019 at 11:07 PM.

  4. #24
    You are doing it wrong. You can't compare a level 1 count to a level 2 count by using the using the same betting ramp. You need to do it by advantage, raising at the same advantage, not the same true count. They aren't the same. The advantage per true count is not exactly, but close to half for most level 2 counts what it is for a level 1. And the frequencies are also going to be way out of whack in the other direction.

  5. #25
    Hi Opt II at TC 8 $200 TC 6 $150 TC 5 $100 TC 4 $50. Score 41.66 Winrate $51.53. Large bet Frequency is 20%.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-04-2019 at 11:41 PM.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post

    Yes, sweet 16. No need to use Fab 4 since there isn’t any surrender in my area. As far as bet frequency, I’d make max bet (8) at TC +5. The range would go from 1 to 8 ramping up to the max bet. Use your discretion and common ramps and rules where I haven’t given more presice info. Thanks!
    Okay. I set it up for TC5+ $200 TC4 $150 TC3 $100 TC 2 $50. The results were SCORE 35.33 Winrate $45.83 That is a 24% bet frequency which is probably going to get you banned on a strong run to the upside.

    Hi OPT II w/ASC. I set up TC6+ $200 TC5 $150 TC4 $100 TC 3 $50 The results were SCORE 45.83 Winrate $60.65. Notice the change in TCs set. This was so it would reflect the same large bet frequency as Hi Lo.

    Questions?
    Thanks for doing this Moses. I don’t have any questions. Your sim came out about what I expected. I know Ho opt II will perform better than Hilo. That has never been my point. But does it perform that much better to justify the brain power to use it? Using Hilo is like riding a bicycle. I can converse with the dealer, pit and flirt with the waitress and still keep the count. I’d never be able to do all that with Hi Opt II.

    I just think you’re going overboard when you say you’d be willing to be the house and take my action if you knew I was using Hilo in a DD game. Why would you do this if you knew you’d be losing money to me? Yes, you could back me off since you’re the house, but then that means you agree Hilo is strong enough to be a threat to the house.

    Just some food for thought.

  7. #27
    Bob21 wrote:

    "
    I just think you’re going overboard when you say you’d be willing to be the house and take my action if you knew I was using Hilo in a DD game. Why would you do this if you knew you’d be losing money to me? Yes, you could back me off since you’re the house, but then that means you agree Hilo is strong enough to be a threat to the house.

    Just some food for thought. "

    Bob, Moses was not born yerterday, he knows what he is doing. You will have to play at $100 minimum bet and $102 maximum bet at Mose's game.

  8. #28
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Bob21 wrote:

    "
    I just think you’re going overboard when you say you’d be willing to be the house and take my action if you knew I was using Hilo in a DD game. Why would you do this if you knew you’d be losing money to me? Yes, you could back me off since you’re the house, but then that means you agree Hilo is strong enough to be a threat to the house.

    Just some food for thought. "

    Bob, Moses was not born yerterday, he knows what he is doing. You will have to play at $100 minimum bet and $102 maximum bet at Mose's game.
    Well of course I wouldn’t play that game. I wasn’t born yesterday either. I don’t care what count system you use, you’ll never win flat betting, which is pretty much what you’re referring to.

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Bob21 wrote:

    "
    I just think you’re going overboard when you say you’d be willing to be the house and take my action if you knew I was using Hilo in a DD game. Why would you do this if you knew you’d be losing money to me? Yes, you could back me off since you’re the house, but then that means you agree Hilo is strong enough to be a threat to the house.

    Just some food for thought. "

    Bob, Moses was not born yerterday, he knows what he is doing. You will have to play at $100 minimum bet and $102 maximum bet at Mose's game.
    Well of course I wouldn’t play that game. I wasn’t born yesterday either. I don’t care what count system you use, you’ll never win flat betting, which is pretty much what you’re referring to.
    You'll never win flat betting while doing a play all/Wong out strategy when counting cards. Using other AP methods, flat betting will crush blackjack games.

  10. #30
    Bob and Bosox. Putting numbers to this as enlightened me. Now, I'm not going to comment on exactly what I see because Bob might decide to take my up on my offer.

    But, now I understand the variance and volatility that is talked about so often on forums which is no big thing for me.

    I'm pretty sure Bosox was joking. I take what the casino gives me. I ask myself three questions. What is the casinos tolerance? How do I play within their rules and tolerance? How do I make it worth my time? Win today. Play tomorrow. Then, I went to work on sims, verite, and seeking knowledge from other players.

    I will say this. After all my research, I'm even more amazed at Don S. He did it without the tools I have at my disposal. But even with the tools it was still a load of work.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-05-2019 at 08:39 AM.

  11. #31
    jbjb wrote:

    "Using other AP methods, flat betting will crush blackjack games."


    At $100 minimum bets Mose's game would have more cameras and surveillance than any strip casino.

  12. #32
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Thanks for doing this Moses. I don’t have any questions. .
    You're welcome Bob. My pleasure. I forgot to point out these Sims were for straight up play. If you need to know how the number of players change the game then let me know.

    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    I just think you’re going overboard when you say you’d be willing to be the house and take my action if you knew I was using Hilo in a DD game. .
    I don't necessarily take the Sim results as gospel for the short term effect. It's based 400 million hands. If you play 50k hands a year it will take 20 years just to get to 1 million hands.

    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Why would you do this if you knew you’d be losing money to me? Yes, you could back me off since you’re the house, but then that means you agree Hilo is strong enough to be a threat to the house.
    LOL. No, I wouldn't back you off. But it wouldn't be worth my time to play for less than $25 green chip game. Black chip is fine or you can jump back and forth. IF you're serious, I will have to do some research. But my understanding is most DD games are No Das. Double 10,11. Maybe 9 at some. No Re-split Aces.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-05-2019 at 08:25 AM.

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    At $100 minimum bets Mose's game would have more cameras and surveillance than any strip casino.
    I was watching a guy playing stacks of blacks the other day. The pit boss dropped what she was doing and stood at the table and watched the entire session. I don't know why because they dropped him back to 5 rounds or 50% pen. He got hammered. His phone rang, he stepped by from the table, answered it, talked for about a minute, colored up what few chips were left and did Elvis. Left me curious about the phone call.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-05-2019 at 08:37 AM.

  14. #34
    Bob21, I noticed you like to play DD games. Double deck games are also my specialty. For 2018 I would say about 90% of my blackjack play was on double deck games. Do you play any single deck games? For 2018 about 6% for my play was on good single deck games (3:2) and the rest (4%) on 6 deck games.

    By the way, what area of the country do you play DD games? I'm always looking for a new destination. Don't feel you have to give away any secrets. I never been to the east coast casinos and was wondering if I can find any DD games there.

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Bob21, I noticed you like to play DD games. Double deck games are also my specialty. For 2018 I would say about 90% of my blackjack play was on double deck games. Do you play any single deck games? For 2018 about 6% for my play was on good single deck games (3:2) and the rest (4%) on 6 deck games.

    By the way, what area of the country do you play DD games? I'm always looking for a new destination. Don't feel you have to give away any secrets. I never been to the east coast casinos and was wondering if I can find any DD games there.
    Midwest, yeah I like to play DD, but I also play quite a bit shoe (both six and eight). The split is probably 70% DD and 30% shoes. This last weekend it was probably more like 50/50. I don’t play much single because it’s not in my area. My playing is in the south and Michigan, since I spend quite a bit of time in Michigan. I’m on the east coast quite a bit too, but don’t play much there since I don’t like their games. I have gone to Vegas and played there, but when I’m in Vegas I’m with family or friends and we’re more there for the shows and nightlife. With this said, I’ve got a couple stores in Vegas I like to play.

    Btw, you keep some really good records of your play. My records aren’t close to that accurate. As far as new destinations, check Stanford Wongs site. For only $10 (it’s maybe more now) he lists of all the games in every state. That’s what I use.

    You say you’re from the Midwest. I grew up in Kansas and went to college there. What state do you live in? I saw some of the pictures you posted of the snow over on BJTF. That’s one thing I don’t miss when I lived in the Midwest. Btw, I’ve lived in other states in the Midwest, like Iowa and South Dakota. South Dakota has some brutal winters. You wonder why anybody would want to live there. But they have good people.

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    You say you’re from the Midwest. I grew up in Kansas and went to college there.
    I'm curious, if I'm not being too nosy, what town did you grow up in? College?

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    You say you’re from the Midwest. I grew up in Kansas and went to college there.
    I'm curious, if I'm not being too nosy, what town did you grow up in? College?
    No problem, Wichita and Friends U. Some called it Friends Univeristy of Central Kansas. I’ll let you figure out what those initials spell. Lol.

    What school did you go to in Nebraska?

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    You say you’re from the Midwest. I grew up in Kansas and went to college there.
    I'm curious, if I'm not being too nosy, what town did you grow up in? College?
    No problem, Wichita and Friends U. Some called it Friends Univeristy of Central Kansas. I’ll let you figure out what those initials spell. Lol.

    What school did you go to in Nebraska?
    LOL I remember that. I think there was a chant Go _____ ! you or off. I can't remember which one. I really wanted to go to McPherson. But it didn't work out.

    Trivia question. My Uncle played guard on the football team long before my time. Their QB at the time, later became Bob Devaney's assistant, and was named head coach after BOB retired.

    Helluva game last night!

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    I'm curious, if I'm not being too nosy, what town did you grow up in? College?
    No problem, Wichita and Friends U. Some called it Friends Univeristy of Central Kansas. I’ll let you figure out what those initials spell. Lol.

    What school did you go to in Nebraska?
    LOL I remember that. I think there was a chant Go _____ ! you or off. I can't remember which one. I really wanted to go to McPherson. But it didn't work out.

    Trivia question. My Uncle played guard on the football team long before my time. Their QB at the time, later became Bob Devaney's assistant, and was named head coach after BOB retired.

    Helluva game last night!
    Good ol’ McPherson. I remember that school well. Yeah, a lot of people had a good time with our initials since even our straight school initials without the central Kansas part were FU.

    I’m not good at trivia questions. Who is he?

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    I’m not good at trivia questions. Who is he?
    Tom Osborne played QB at Hastings College with my Uncle. I went to a NU game with him. NU vs OK St. 90,000 fans were screaming as the Huskers came down the tunnel and onto to the field. Doctor Osborne looks up and started a quiet unassuming conversation with my Uncle. HE looks up and says, "well hello, John." Uncle replies "hello Tom."

    Where are you living nowadays? Tom asks. Pawnee City. Do you have any kids? Yes, one.

    Well, I moved to Lincoln after graduation. Guess I'd better go to work.

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