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Thread: Mystery Progressives AKA "Must Hits"

  1. #81
    A couple more River Dragons variants:
    Attached Images Attached Images   
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  2. #82
    Do you feel the numbers are close or the same.
    You are jumping on the Original Version at 4930 or above right?
    After that long session where you ripped off both meters do you feel that you need more than 4930 to start?
    What is your Minor Entry point? I am not sure if you shared that.
    I know you said you were at 419 when you started that other play and it was expected to come off.
    Also you stated that if you had not hit the Minor you would of only had a 773 dollar profit?
    That being said do you think the entry points need to be higher than what you first decided?

  3. #83
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Do you feel the numbers are close or the same.
    You are jumping on the Original Version at 4930 or above right?
    After that long session where you ripped off both meters do you feel that you need more than 4930 to start?
    What is your Minor Entry point? I am not sure if you shared that.
    I know you said you were at 419 when you started that other play and it was expected to come off.
    Also you stated that if you had not hit the Minor you would of only had a 773 dollar profit?
    That being said do you think the entry points need to be higher than what you first decided?
    I have data collected from four plays on the 500 meter and one play on the 5000 meter. I made $39,521 in action and got dropped for $6,796.

    6796/39521 = 17.2%

    On the 5000 play I calculated that if it ran me all the way to the top I would make $25,600 in action. And if I got dropped for 20% the cost would be $5,120. But I also knew the 500 meter would run to the top and hit too since it runs faster than the 5000 meter. So I would have my butt covered if I took a 20% drop. I took a 16.68% drop which equates to $4,270 but hit both the 500 and 5000 meters so made $1221.

    I want to make a healthy profit on the play so $4930 is my number on all the variants as long as the meter speed is 0.26666%. Different meter speed means a different calculation.

    On the 500 meter, whether the meter speed is .375% or .4% I'll play at $486.

    I think the problem you will run into in Vegas is hustlers willing to play lower numbers than I play. It's a competition thing. They'll take it low to keep other hustlers from getting the play. To me that means no one makes any real money on the game.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  4. #84
    Mickeycrimm I am very impressed with all of the data from all of your plays on so many machines and games. (When do you find time to sleep?) Keep up the good work.

  5. #85
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Do you feel the numbers are close or the same.
    You are jumping on the Original Version at 4930 or above right?
    After that long session where you ripped off both meters do you feel that you need more than 4930 to start?
    What is your Minor Entry point? I am not sure if you shared that.
    I know you said you were at 419 when you started that other play and it was expected to come off.
    Also you stated that if you had not hit the Minor you would of only had a 773 dollar profit?
    That being said do you think the entry points need to be higher than what you first decided?
    I have data collected from four plays on the 500 meter and one play on the 5000 meter. I made $39,521 in action and got dropped for $6,796.

    6796/39521 = 17.2%

    On the 5000 play I calculated that if it ran me all the way to the top I would make $25,600 in action. And if I got dropped for 20% the cost would be $5,120. But I also knew the 500 meter would run to the top and hit too since it runs faster than the 5000 meter. So I would have my butt covered if I took a 20% drop. I took a 16.68% drop which equates to $4,270 but hit both the 500 and 5000 meters so made $1221.

    I want to make a healthy profit on the play so $4930 is my number on all the variants as long as the meter speed is 0.26666%. Different meter speed means a different calculation.

    On the 500 meter, whether the meter speed is .375% or .4% I'll play at $486.

    I think the problem you will run into in Vegas is hustlers willing to play lower numbers than I play. It's a competition thing. They'll take it low to keep other hustlers from getting the play. To me that means no one makes any real money on the game.
    After further thought I think I can see a case for playing numbers a little lower than I play. That is, if you think running 25 to 30K in action will generate freeplay mailers.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #86
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Mickeycrimm I am very impressed with all of the data from all of your plays on so many machines and games. (When do you find time to sleep?) Keep up the good work.
    Alan, money is the motivating factor. At all times I carry a pocket notebook and have a calculator on my phone. Recording and analyzing stats is a pain in the ass but it pays off in the long run. thanks for the compliment.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #87
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I think the problem you will run into in Vegas is hustlers willing to play lower numbers than I play. It's a competition thing. They'll take it low to keep other hustlers from getting the play. To me that means no one makes any real money on the game.
    This is the problem I see in a lot of places. The pseudo-AP's that think Something like $460/$500 is a good play. One lady had a machine locked up for 3 days trying to hit it, finally getting it this morning! I haven't been on a must hit by in years.

  8. #88
    This is Barney,

    Mr. Jbjb, I agree with you but what is worse, and that I sometimes see, is security personage calling local personage when the progressive slut machine device gets around $485 and they places reserved sign on device. When the local personage shows up she tips the security personage, takes off the reserved sign, and begins to play the device. Both times when I see this happen the local personage plays around 10 hours before hitting the payoff. Probably lost money since it took so long before hitting it. Talk about Collusion. This play by local personage pisses me off more than the so-called Russian Collusion.
    Last edited by Barney; 09-25-2018 at 07:19 AM.

  9. #89
    Ahhhh! It's a slot machine, not a slut machine. :-)

  10. #90
    It looks like the Wizard is finally taking a look at the AGS must hits. He's a little off on the name, it's not Fire Dragons but River Dragons. The variants are Fire Wolf, Wolf Queen, Forest Dragons, Winter of the Dragons. And their are some new variants hitting the casinos. The one thing to look for is the AGS logo on the machine. If you find that logo its going to run you to the top.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #91
    I brought up the research you have done Mickey, seems like it pissed the Wiz off, lol. And when the Wiz is pissed, suspensions happen.

  12. #92
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Not taking sides and totally understand the Wizards position based on history, but sometimes forgiveness is possible in the Holiday season. Or the belief anything can happen is what makes Christmas special for some of us.
    An End is what it is.
    And a Grasshopper is what it is.
    And Christmas Sir is a Humbug, Good Day!


  13. #93
    Fuck, I figured you died, my bad, sorry.

  14. #94
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    I brought up the research you have done Mickey, seems like it pissed the Wiz off, lol. And when the Wiz is pissed, suspensions happen.
    Onenickelmiracle is a pain in the ass. And Babs doesn't marty her liberal pets on the suspensions. Always just 3 days.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  15. #95
    I don't think the Wiz knows the reset values. The 500 always starts at $200. The 5K can start at either 2K or 4K but the meter rate is always the same, 0.26666%. At least with the many machines I'm familiar with. I much prefer the ones that start at 4K because it doesn't take as long for a play to develop.

    About a week ago an AP showed me a picture of an RD that hit at $4917. So it is possible for it to go early but not likely. And the 4917 is a pretty high number too.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  16. #96
    There is a thread over at WoV on the AGS must hits like River Dragons. Shack puts the average hit at 4945. I think that's accurate but not for the same reasons he lists. He speculates that 99% of the time it hits above 4900 and 1% of the time it hits below 4900. I'm networked with a lot of people on this game. I know of two cases it hit in the low 4900's. Verified with pictures. I know of no cases it hit below 4900. By and large it runs to 4990 or higher before it hits.

    I think the rare cases it hits in the low 4900's brings the average hit down from 4995 to 4945. But you can't jump on this game at 4870 thinking the average hit is 4945. You'll get your clock cleaned. You have to calculate your cost based on the average hit being 4995 because probably 97% of the time thats the number you are going to be at or around when it hits.

    Do not think you have a uniform chance of hitting it when it gets above 4900. Thats only going to happen when you get to 4990 or over.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...YY7xfGTf8cbeXA
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #97
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    There is a thread over at WoV on the AGS must hits like River Dragons. Shack puts the average hit at 4945. I think that's accurate but not for the same reasons he lists. He speculates that 99% of the time it hits above 4900 and 1% of the time it hits below 4900. I'm networked with a lot of people on this game. I know of two cases it hit in the low 4900's. Verified with pictures. I know of no cases it hit below 4900. By and large it runs to 4990 or higher before it hits.

    I think the rare cases it hits in the low 4900's brings the average hit down from 4995 to 4945. But you can't jump on this game at 4870 thinking the average hit is 4945. You'll get your clock cleaned. You have to calculate your cost based on the average hit being 4995 because probably 97% of the time thats the number you are going to be at or around when it hits.

    Do not think you have a uniform chance of hitting it when it gets above 4900. Thats only going to happen when you get to 4990 or over.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...YY7xfGTf8cbeXA
    The same thing seems to be true with their Shamrock Jackpots game. It has four must hit progressives. The bottom two are a $25 and a $50. If you take the $25 any lower than $24.15 or so or if you take the $50 anywhere below $49.30, you're asking for trouble. It does seem like the base game return decreases as you get closer to the must hit value, but hopefully that's not the case. Anyhow, as long as players keep in mind that with any AGS must hit product, if they initiate a play very close to the top, they can usually avoid trouble.

  18. #98
    Over at WoV, on page 3 of the AGS thread, the Wiz says he has a par sheet for the game. From the par sheet he was able to determine the amount of payback represented by the progressive meters. But there is one glaring omission in his analysis. He didn't divulge the payback of the overall game or the payback in the main game. If he has the par sheet he has that information. He has always published payback percentages but in this case he hasn't. It's probably information that he only wants his inside click to know. Someone should ask him about it.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  19. #99
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Over at WoV, on page 3 of the AGS thread, the Wiz says he has a par sheet for the game. From the par sheet he was able to determine the amount of payback represented by the progressive meters. But there is one glaring omission in his analysis. He didn't divulge the payback of the overall game or the payback in the main game. If he has the par sheet he has that information. He has always published payback percentages but in this case he hasn't. It's probably information that he only wants his inside click to know. Someone should ask him about it.
    I'll give the guy this, he's hooked up pretty well since he managed to get the par sheet for it (clique members must be stoked). It looks like you were spot on with your meter rise estimates.

  20. #100
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Over at WoV, on page 3 of the AGS thread, the Wiz says he has a par sheet for the game. From the par sheet he was able to determine the amount of payback represented by the progressive meters. But there is one glaring omission in his analysis. He didn't divulge the payback of the overall game or the payback in the main game. If he has the par sheet he has that information. He has always published payback percentages but in this case he hasn't. It's probably information that he only wants his inside click to know. Someone should ask him about it.
    I'll give the guy this, he's hooked up pretty well since he managed to get the par sheet for it (clique members must be stoked). It looks like you were spot on with your meter rise estimates.
    I know someone that has played off 15 RD's and everyone has run him above 4990. But I've also seen two pics where it hit in the low 4900's.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

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