2018 start

[AxelWolf]

From the math I've seen on Megabucks it goes positive at $24,000,000. But the odds on the top line hit is 50,000,000. It's not what I consider hittable. No AP will touch it.

I'm sure some AP's would dedicate some time and BR to it. Most wouldn't go bonkers on it, but there would be a few AP's that would put a fair amount of time and money into it. I would take a shot, I just wouldn't go crazy.

I remember when quarter-mania got to +EV and lots of pros were playing it for long periods of time. I took some time to play it, but I didn't dedicate myself to putting in much time. It paid off for one well known AP who hit it(It was over 500k IIRC).

This is an example where someone should fall back on Bankroll Management and have a stop loss in fear of hurting their bankroll to the point where they couldn't continue to play other stuff without going broke. That's not to be confused with stopping for the day(or whatever)just because "things are not clicking." MOST EVERYONE knows stopping when you have an advantage just because "things are not clicking" is mathematically stupid. Assuming your BR is not in jeopardy.

[mickeycrimm]

From the math I've seen on Megabucks it goes positive at $24,000,000. But the odds on the top line hit is 50,000,000. It's not what I consider hittable. No AP will touch it.

I'm sure some AP's would dedicate some time and BR to it. Most wouldn't go bonkers on it, but there would be a few AP's that would put a fair amount of time and money into it. I would take a shot, I just wouldn't go crazy.

I remember when quarter-mania got to +EV and lots of pros were playing it for long periods of time. I took some time to play it, but I didn't dedicate myself to putting in much time. It paid off for one well known AP who hit it(It was over 500k IIRC).

This is an example where someone should fall back on Bankroll Management and have a stop loss in fear of hurting their bankroll to the point where they couldn't continue to play other stuff without going broke. That's not to be confused with stopping for the day(or whatever)just because "things are not clicking." MOST EVERYONE knows stopping when you have an advantage just because "things are not clicking" is mathematically stupid. Assuming your BR is not in jeopardy.

The longest frequency I've ever dealt with is 10/7 DB with royal odds 48,000. I like hittable odds. For the past 10 years the longest frequency I've dealt with is 1551 (five-spot video keno progressive). And that's on a game that on turbo speed plays at 2400 games per hour. One of my plays has a frequency of just 36. It's like a one minute play that's worth $15. I don't pass them up because I'm there anyway on the bigger plays so I may as well spin the one minute play off too while I'm there. That is, if I find one.

You would be hard pressed to get me to sit down on some long term play like 9/6 Jacks with major cashback. I like being in and out of the seat all day. My plays are short and sweet. I like it like that.

[tableplay]

How can you get into a high positive count heads-up situation without playing negative or marginal counts?

You play the neutral count - the high negative count is abandoned with a bathroom break.

And when you return from the break, the heads-up table you abandoned is vacant.

You sit down to play heads-up. How do you play until a high positive count develops, without playing negative or marginal counts?

High counts can develop from neutral counts. The first cards to come out of the deck can be small, strangely enough.
You are more than welcome to play though hugely negative counts if you want, rather than taking a break and going back to a starting deck with a neutral count. It's your money.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey did I read this correctly: you found a one minute play that's worth $15, and isn't that $900 an hour?

[Alan Mendelson]

One of my plays has a frequency of just 36. It's like a one minute play that's worth $15.

Here's that quote. Did I miss something or is that $900 an hour?

[The Boz]

One of my plays has a frequency of just 36. It's like a one minute play that's worth $15.

Here's that quote. Did I miss something or is that $900 an hour?

Thought I would stay out of this but you make it too easy or hard, not sure which.


Do you understand you have to find the situation? You cannot just sit and play this play over and over again?

I find it hard to believe someone that has found a way to be successful in life like you appear to be is this dense. You have to be acting this way to just f with people and get off on it.

But consider me guilty of playing your games now too.

[Alan Mendelson]

One of my plays has a frequency of just 36. It's like a one minute play that's worth $15.

Here's that quote. Did I miss something or is that $900 an hour?

Thought I would stay out of this but you make it too easy or hard, not sure which.


Do you understand you have to find the situation? You cannot just sit and play this play over and over again?

I find it hard to believe someone that has found a way to be successful in life like you appear to be is this dense. You have to be acting this way to just f with people and get off on it.

But consider me guilty of playing your games now too.

I'm sorry but he said it has a frequency of 36. And it hits about once a minute. Would Mickey care to clarify?

In the context of the thread it appeared a frequency of 36 means it hits after 36 plays.

Please read his entire post.

[coach belly]

You play the neutral count - the high negative count is abandoned with a bathroom break.

And when you return from the break, the heads-up table you abandoned is vacant.

You sit down to play heads-up. How do you play until a high positive count develops, without playing negative or marginal counts?

High counts can develop from neutral counts. The first cards to come out of the deck can be small, strangely enough.

And what if the first hand out of the shoe is 2 face cards for both you and the dealer?...back to the bathroom?

[Alan Mendelson]

From the math I've seen on Megabucks it goes positive at $24,000,000. But the odds on the top line hit is 50,000,000. It's not what I consider hittable. No AP will touch it.

I'm sure some AP's would dedicate some time and BR to it. Most wouldn't go bonkers on it, but there would be a few AP's that would put a fair amount of time and money into it. I would take a shot, I just wouldn't go crazy.

I remember when quarter-mania got to +EV and lots of pros were playing it for long periods of time. I took some time to play it, but I didn't dedicate myself to putting in much time. It paid off for one well known AP who hit it(It was over 500k IIRC).

This is an example where someone should fall back on Bankroll Management and have a stop loss in fear of hurting their bankroll to the point where they couldn't continue to play other stuff without going broke. That's not to be confused with stopping for the day(or whatever)just because "things are not clicking." MOST EVERYONE knows stopping when you have an advantage just because "things are not clicking" is mathematically stupid. Assuming your BR is not in jeopardy.

The longest frequency I've ever dealt with is 10/7 DB with royal odds 48,000. I like hittable odds. For the past 10 years the longest frequency I've dealt with is 1551 (five-spot video keno progressive). And that's on a game that on turbo speed plays at 2400 games per hour. One of my plays has a frequency of just 36. It's like a one minute play that's worth $15. I don't pass them up because I'm there anyway on the bigger plays so I may as well spin the one minute play off too while I'm there. That is, if I find one.

You would be hard pressed to get me to sit down on some long term play like 9/6 Jacks with major cashback. I like being in and out of the seat all day. My plays are short and sweet. I like it like that.

Here is what Mickey wrote. The first frequency was the royal, then the 5 spot and then what appears to be his $900 an hour play. Of course I would understand if Mickey says he didn't mean it that way. I asked him to explain it. You can too Mr Boz.

[The Boz]

Here's that quote. Did I miss something or is that $900 an hour?

Thought I would stay out of this but you make it too easy or hard, not sure which.


Do you understand you have to find the situation? You cannot just sit and play this play over and over again?

I find it hard to believe someone that has found a way to be successful in life like you appear to be is this dense. You have to be acting this way to just f with people and get off on it.

But consider me guilty of playing your games now too.

I'm sorry but he said it has a frequency of 36. And it hits about once a minute. Would Mickey care to clarify?

In the context of the thread it appeared a frequency of 36 means it hits after 36 plays.

Please read his entire post.

Yes it should hit within 36 spins, which takes less than a minute to theoretically hit. Most plays of this type take longer to cycle through. Again you don’t find 60 of these plays an hour. But as he said it is an extra bonus while looking for other plays.

[Alan Mendelson]

Then I think he needs to explain that, don't you?

[The Boz]

Then I think he needs to explain that, don't you?

No because most of those in the discussion, or reading it like I was, clearly understood it. And from as much time as you have spent over the years reading and debating AP plays, I thought you would have as well. Even if you think it’s all BS, I would think someone that wants to argue it’s impossible would know what they are denying is possible.

Isn’t that what a good reporter does? Learns everything they can about both sides then reports?

[Alan Mendelson]

I also read what he wrote. There were no conditions or disclaimers. It was stated matter of factly.

[The Boz]

I also read what he wrote. There were no conditions or disclaimers. It was stated matter of factly.

And it is fact, but you were the one to say it was a $900 an hour play, not Mickey. You only hear AP’s using hourly figures when it is a play than actually lasts hours. And they also add its theoretical.

I’m not trying to insult you Alan but I do find it hard to believe you don’t grasp these concepts. It’s not your first time discussing AP tactics.

[Alan Mendelson]

Sorry Boz but when the guy says the play comes after 36 plays and that's about one a minute that means it's a $900 per hour play.

But thanks for letting me know Mickey left out the fine points... like it really doesn't come about every 36 plays or every minute.

I'm just trying to get a clear picture of these claims. After all I'm still confused how losing $8800 creates a winning day. I guess I don't understand AP-speak.

[AxelWolf]

Sorry Boz but when the guy says the play comes after 36 plays and that's about one a minute that means it's a $900 per hour play.

But thanks for letting me know Mickey left out the fine points... like it really doesn't come about every 36 plays or every minute.

I'm just trying to get a clear picture of these claims. After all I'm still confused how losing $8800 creates a winning day. I guess I don't understand AP-speak.

Who said, "losing $8800 creates a winning day." ?????

Playing with an advantage creates value (win or lose), eventually, if it's played long enough it will turn into actual profits.

How long is long enough? That's an entirely different subject and it greatly depends on what the situation is.
Megabucks was given as an example. it's possible to play for a lifetime at +EV on something Megabucks and never see a profit.

There are also situations where you earn a an actual profit with each spin.

[AxelWolf]

From the math I've seen on Megabucks it goes positive at $24,000,000. But the odds on the top line hit is 50,000,000. It's not what I consider hittable. No AP will touch it.

I'm sure some AP's would dedicate some time and BR to it. Most wouldn't go bonkers on it, but there would be a few AP's that would put a fair amount of time and money into it. I would take a shot, I just wouldn't go crazy.

I remember when quarter-mania got to +EV and lots of pros were playing it for long periods of time. I took some time to play it, but I didn't dedicate myself to putting in much time. It paid off for one well known AP who hit it(It was over 500k IIRC).

This is an example where someone should fall back on Bankroll Management and have a stop loss in fear of hurting their bankroll to the point where they couldn't continue to play other stuff without going broke. That's not to be confused with stopping for the day(or whatever)just because "things are not clicking." MOST EVERYONE knows stopping when you have an advantage just because "things are not clicking" is mathematically stupid. Assuming your BR is not in jeopardy.

The longest frequency I've ever dealt with is 10/7 DB with royal odds 48,000. I like hittable odds. For the past 10 years the longest frequency I've dealt with is 1551 (five-spot video keno progressive). And that's on a game that on turbo speed plays at 2400 games per hour. One of my plays has a frequency of just 36. It's like a one minute play that's worth $15. I don't pass them up because I'm there anyway on the bigger plays so I may as well spin the one minute play off too while I'm there. That is, if I find one.

You would be hard pressed to get me to sit down on some long term play like 9/6 Jacks with major cashback. I like being in and out of the seat all day. My plays are short and sweet. I like it like that.

believe me, I would much rather play stuff that has little or no variance. Given a choice, between let's say a double on 4 of a kind promo that's a 6% advantage, and a VP progressive where the EV comes from hitting a specific suited Royal with an 8% advantage. I won't even have to think twice, I'm playing the double on 4 of a kind promo.

However, if there was a situation where you could auto-run millions of hands on just one or the other. I would go with the 8% play.

[AxelWolf]

p.s. Given the choice between running around from casino to casino looking for silver pyramids, pants vs gremlins, pingpangpong, hieroglyph 3D games at a higher percentage vs a lower percentage all day long ass in the seat plays. I would take the ass in the seat play.

[jbjb]

High variance is something AP's do not want.

[AxelWolf]

High variance is something AP's do not want.

You are correct Most of the time an AP doesn't want personal high variance. I guess there are some who enjoy the thrill of it.

There are some situations where you want the bets/games you are playing to have higher variance to maximize the EV .