The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[tableplay]

his recent trip reports indicate an aggregate outcome that has only a 1 in 20 million chance of occurring

He had a 1 in 20 million chance to win $60K for the last 2 trips?

It was 1 in 20 million for the sessions that Half Smoke summarized (800 hands per session over 12 sessions):
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll=1#post97399

[coach belly]

The excerpts are your answers to my questions.

That's true. Additionally, they are taken out of context.

How could the context have changed your answers?

[BoSox]

I will tell you something that does have a significant bearing on the matter....If anyone is unexpectedly defying the odds over an extended period of time be that by hours played, days on a trip, or consecutive trips suddenly the welcome mat becomes smaller and smaller.

Originally Posted by coach belly
You're telling me something that you know first-hand, or something that was told to you by someone else?

Yes, first hand, it really boils down to tolerance levels of play, lifetime winnings at that casino. Frequency of visits, length of visit and your act, and spread, speaking from playing a blackjack perspective.


Originally Posted by coach belly
Tell me this...if MDawg were to post his W/L statement from 2019 that showed an overall gaming win for last year, would you accept his claim that he is getting comped despite consistently winning? [/QUOTE]

Sorry, I do not take him seriously.

Originally Posted by coach belly
Regarding your post formats...instead of typing "member X wrote" before you quote another member, why not use the Reply With Quote function?

That way viewers can click onto the double arrow icon next to the quoted member's name, and read the original post that you have quoted.[/QUOTE] [/QUOTE]

Sorry, for my weird ways on the replys. I am going to try other various ways of doing so.

[coach belly]

his recent trip reports indicate an aggregate outcome that has only a 1 in 20 million chance of occurring

He had a 1 in 20 million chance to win $60K for the last 2 trips?

It was 1 in 20 million for the sessions that Half Smoke summarized

Are you assuming that MDawg fabricated his results for 2020 based on Half Smoke's premise for his 2019 play?

Half Smoke's premise was based on MDawg flat-betting for 12 sessions of 800 hands.

That almost certainly did not take place.

But what impact could MDawgs 2019 trips have on whether or not he won for the 2020 trips, which are documented in his trip reports?

His posts are (from WOV) "trip reports, with some examples of winning shoes and how I played them, and general strategies."

He posted many photos of hand-by-hand results for baccarat shes that he claimed to have played. Would it have been unlikely for him to win, playing those shoes in the manner that he reported?

[coach belly]

Yes, first hand, it really boils down to tolerance levels of play, lifetime winnings at that casino. Frequency of visits, length of visit and your act, and spread, speaking from playing a blackjack perspective.

Does that apply to baccarat?

[coach belly]

Tell me this...if MDawg were to post his W/L statement from 2019 that showed an overall gaming win for last year, would you accept his claim that he is getting comped despite consistently winning?

Sorry, I do not take him seriously.

Then why are you bothering to discuss him or repeatedly comment in this thread?

[BoSox]

Tell me this...if MDawg were to post his W/L statement from 2019 that showed an overall gaming win for last year, would you accept his claim that he is getting comped despite consistently winning?

Sorry, I do not take him seriously.

Then why are you bothering to discuss him or repeatedly comment in this thread?

I just had to comment on MDawg's thread on the chance that a newer member may be influenced with what he was talking about. In other words I was trying to give a fair waring.

[BoSox]

Yes, first hand, it really boils down to tolerance levels of play, lifetime winnings at that casino. Frequency of visits, length of visit and your act, and spread, speaking from playing a blackjack perspective.

Does that apply to baccarat?

Yes, I actually believe that some casino may, in fact, be stupid enough to shut down the action of a baccarat player who is currently getting the better of them over the SHORT term.

[coach belly]

I actually believe that some casino may, in fact, be stupid enough to shut down the action of a baccarat player who is currently getting the better of them over the SHORT term.

My understanding is that if you're winning, then they want you to stay, and if you've left the property with winnings, then they want you to come back.

How else will they recover your lucky short term winnings, unless you come back to play more?

You believe that a casino would shut down the action of a winning baccarat player?...sounds like you don't actually know that's the case.

[BoSox]

I actually believe that some casino may, in fact, be stupid enough to shut down the action of a baccarat player who is currently getting the better of them over the SHORT term.

My understanding is that if you're winning, then they want you to stay, and if you've left the property with winnings, then they want you to come back.

How else will they recover your lucky short term winnings, unless you come back to play more?

As long as you are talking about a negative expectation game for the player. That is how casinos should treat it. However, since there are often some real dumb humans running the business end of it, there is always room for a rare exception whereby someone in management makes a mistake "possibly because their own job may be on the line" and stops a player from playing who appears hot at the time.

coach belly wrote:

"You believe that a casino would shut down the action of a winning baccarat player?...sounds like you don't actually know that's the case."


What I actually said was:


Yes, I actually believe that some casino may, in fact, be stupid enough to shut down the action of a baccarat player who is currently getting the better of them over the SHORT term.

Expanding on this, depending upon the size of the casino and the size of the action that the casino takes a heavy better (not MDawg by any means) could actually hurt the short term casino numbers for the game in question resulting in a possible firing of some big shithole. Now I agree with what tableplay said on most of this and it seemed like you two were going nowhere on the subject. I am afraid you and I are not going to reach any kind consensus either so I will let you have the last word on the subject.

[tableplay]

The excerpts are your answers to my questions.

That's true. Additionally, they are taken out of context.

How could the context have changed your answers?

Since those posts also contained verbiage regarding the impossibility of the long term. In any event, the phrases by themselves do not demonstrate proof that someone can win long term in a negative expectation game regardless of context.

Here's an example of context changing meaning:

1) Tom: "Man, that is awful"

2 ) "Bro, I just won a million dollars !!!" said George. "Man, that is awful" said Tom sarcastically while he smiled and winked at George.

Here is another example of how context changes meaning:

In gambling, when you've won 25 or 30 or 40 times in a row at a -EV game, that's statistically very rare. And you keep arguing that it can happen

I haven't argued that it can happen.

[tableplay]

It was 1 in 20 million for the sessions that Half Smoke summarized

Are you assuming that MDawg fabricated his results for 2020 based on Half Smoke's premise for his 2019 play?

Half Smoke's premise was based on MDawg flat-betting for 12 sessions of 800 hands.

That almost certainly did not take place.

But what impact could MDawgs 2019 trips have on whether or not he won for the 2020 trips, which are documented in his trip reports?

His posts are (from WOV) "trip reports, with some examples of winning shoes and how I played them, and general strategies."

He posted many photos of hand-by-hand results for baccarat shes that he claimed to have played. Would it have been unlikely for him to win, playing those shoes in the manner that he reported?

Who said anything about Mdawg's 2019 trips impacting his 2020 trips ? The other questions were already answered regarding flat betting versus varying bets. I'm not sure why you keep asking questions that have already been answered but I doubt this will deter you from continuing to do it.

[tableplay]

Now I agree with what tableplay said on most of this and it seemed like you two were going nowhere on the subject. I am afraid you and I are not going to reach any kind consensus either so I will let you have the last word on the subject.

I agree with what you wrote as well Bosox and I have also come to the conclusion that a dead horse is now being beaten and will no longer make any attempts at convincing Coach that Mdawg is a net loser of money wagered at Baccarat.

[coach belly]

Who said anything about Mdawg's 2019 trips impacting his 2020 trips ?

You did...when you wrote about his "aggregate outcome" you were talking about his consecutive winning trips for 2019...as though his claims of consecutive winning trips in 2019 counterfeited his reported winnings for his 2020 trips.

Isn't that what you implied?...since he could not have won overall for 9600 hands played in 2019, then his reported wins for 2020 were fabricated?

his recent trip reports indicate an aggregate outcome that has only a 1 in 20 million chance of occurring

[coach belly]

I actually believe that some casino may, in fact, be stupid enough to shut down the action of a baccarat player who is currently getting the better of them over the SHORT term.

Do you know this for a fact?

[tableplay]

Who said anything about Mdawg's 2019 trips impacting his 2020 trips ?

You did...when you wrote about his "aggregate outcome" you were talking about his consecutive winning trips for 2019...as though his claims of consecutive winning trips in 2019 counterfeited his reported winnings for his 2020 trips.

Isn't that what you implied?...since he could not have won overall for 9600 hands played in 2019, then his reported wins for 2020 were fabricated?

his recent trip reports indicate an aggregate outcome that has only a 1 in 20 million chance of occurring

Hi Coach, please quote where I said anything about Mdawg's 2019 trips impacting his 2020 trips.

[mickeycrimm]

One of the things a casino host can judge a whale on is "Does he leave if he gets ahead?" A player that will hang around until they lose is much more valuable. So a casino host could cut a whale off if he wins for a few trips in a row and fits into the "leaves if he gets ahead" category.

But what MDawg is most likely doing is just not reporting his losing sesssions just reporting the winners. It's easy enough to do.

[coach belly]

please quote where I said anything about Mdawg's 2019 trips impacting his 2020 trips.

Right here...

his recent trip reports indicate an aggregate outcome that has only a 1 in 20 million chance of occurring

When you asserted that his aggregate outcome "has only a 1 in 20 million chance of occurring" what outcome did you mean...his 2020 results?

[coach belly]

a casino host could cut a whale off if he wins for a few trips in a row and fits into the "leaves if he gets ahead" category.

What are you saying...that a casino will cut off a player that has won "short term" playing a -EV game?

[BoSox]

a casino host could cut a whale off if he wins for a few trips in a row and fits into the "leaves if he gets ahead" category.

What are you saying...that a casino will cut off a player that has won "short term" playing a -EV game?

No, he did not. He said a host could cut off a whale. No offense coach but it seems like you only read the words that you want to suit you. Depending on the whale he could represent the same action as hundreds of players combined.