The Singer Five

[The Boz]

A sample of 40 to 50 plays doesn't tell you much of anything, except perhaps the style of the handicapper and what he's trying to accomplish. If Argentino goes 15-5 down the stretch, he'll hit the 60% he said he'd hit.

Since it's a game of opinion, I try to not directly apply probability to the task. "The math" doesn't say, necessarily, that Argentino will lose. He may have insights or abilities beyond the formulas used to determine the spreads. The one spot wherein math does apply, however, is in the macro-betting. In other words, the parlays. The parlays, as mickey pointed out, are a bad bet oddswise even if you have an advantage over the oddsmakers themselves. In other words, if you are indeed brighter than the formulas used to determine spreads, there is no incentive to bet parlays.

I said this a couple of times regarding parlays when the endeavor began. Betting parlays without a good reason smacks of hubris, as does the proclamation that someone will hit 60%. Betting parlays also suggests a lack of discipline and a need to have some semi-progressive big payday looming out there in never-never land. The potential for the quick bailout. In reality, there are no quick bailouts.

Interestingly, the Wise Guys contestants are doing remarkably well this season. They had a stellar weekend again. I'm 17-11 and 10-4 with best bets, and I'm nowhere close to the leaders. They are killing it.

It's tough when reality is there keeping your stats for you. No voodoo to help. No avoidance of record-keeping. Your public record is inescapable. I've been doing this for 40 years. It ain't easy.

RE, would love to hear your thoughts on why the WG top guys have such good records this season? I’m taking variances and wrong lines out of the equation just on history. Not expecting any release of confidential information, but this season is out side what you should see. Always going to be a few who have above expectations on results, just as you will have quality handicappers with bad records. But this year is heavy on the topside.

The contrarian in me says they are coming back to Earth soon.

[redietz]

A sample of 40 to 50 plays doesn't tell you much of anything, except perhaps the style of the handicapper and what he's trying to accomplish. If Argentino goes 15-5 down the stretch, he'll hit the 60% he said he'd hit.

Since it's a game of opinion, I try to not directly apply probability to the task. "The math" doesn't say, necessarily, that Argentino will lose. He may have insights or abilities beyond the formulas used to determine the spreads. The one spot wherein math does apply, however, is in the macro-betting. In other words, the parlays. The parlays, as mickey pointed out, are a bad bet oddswise even if you have an advantage over the oddsmakers themselves. In other words, if you are indeed brighter than the formulas used to determine spreads, there is no incentive to bet parlays.

I said this a couple of times regarding parlays when the endeavor began. Betting parlays without a good reason smacks of hubris, as does the proclamation that someone will hit 60%. Betting parlays also suggests a lack of discipline and a need to have some semi-progressive big payday looming out there in never-never land. The potential for the quick bailout. In reality, there are no quick bailouts.

Interestingly, the Wise Guys contestants are doing remarkably well this season. They had a stellar weekend again. I'm 17-11 and 10-4 with best bets, and I'm nowhere close to the leaders. They are killing it.

It's tough when reality is there keeping your stats for you. No voodoo to help. No avoidance of record-keeping. Your public record is inescapable. I've been doing this for 40 years. It ain't easy.

RE, would love to hear your thoughts on why the WG top guys have such good records this season? I’m taking variances and wrong lines out of the equation just on history. Not expecting any release of confidential information, but this season is out side what you should see. Always going to be a few who have above expectations on results, just as you will have quality handicappers with bad records. But this year is heavy on the topside.

The contrarian in me says they are coming back to Earth soon.

Thanks for asking this question, Boz. I'll be debating this next week with the guys, so I'll get started now. From my perspective, the key element has always been that usually when the bulk of the professional handicappers do real well, I do poorly. And vice versa. Now what makes this year different is that I did fine, but from my point of view, it was a difficult "did fine." I got off to a good, rolling start, then lost three weeks in a row (and lost six Wise Guys games in a row -- had never happened), then won a bit each week until last week, when I lost. Then this week I won.

I think the top professionals have done real well in the NFL. Many of the big line moves on toss-up NFL games have turned out to be correct. Even though I rarely bet these games, I notice this because in no-spread contests, I tend to stick with the opening favorite regardless of how much money comes in. That has not served me well this season. So games like Carolina/Cleveland yesterday -- tons of money on Cleveland, and Cleveland won. Lots of Lions money, also, and they won (I actually had them as a Wise Guys play). Then, a surprising bunch of Wise Guys Bears backers last night, and they won. I think just one guy (out of 50) had the Rams.

I'm going to throw this out there as a preliminary theory, mainly because it's a pretty obvious statement. The people making the lines are relying on simplistic power ratings and algorithms. As opposed to 50 years ago, when Bob Martin "made the line" or later when Roxy ran a roundtable with some power ratings, this stuff today is pure numbers. The hot terms are "metrics" or "analytics," right?

Well, them thar analytics ain't all they be cracked up to be. I suspect they could use a healthy dose of some Jed Clampett "cogitatin'" to go with all the "cipherin'."

In other words, when you get a California boy playing QB against a killer defense, and it's under 30 degrees, if your analytics don't have some way of adding temperature and lack of experience with that kind of temperature into the mix of figuring what the line should be, people will beat your analytics. And I think that's what's happened. Eyeballs are beating analytics. I think the powers that be have gone way too far to the simplistic metrics.

Give me some feedback on these ideas, and we'll continue this tomorrow. I have a 9 PM deadline for the Wise Guys, and since there are just a couple of college games, I'll be flipping coins, which takes some time. If you're gonna throw darts, best to toss down some cuba libres with beer chasers first. If it's cold, Yuengling chasers. If warm, Coronas. Nine inches of snow here, so it'll be Yuengling.

[The Boz]

Yea, there are many examples yesterday and they turned out right for the “smart” money. The Bears were easy money looking back at it. It’s the type bet I have made for years, but some years they never win. That’s a generalization but it just seems that way sometimes, same as Cleveland, wins this week, loses others but still the “right” bet. That said I had Tampa yesterday and it was a pure against the grain play based on 10 days off and coming off a loss for NO. And it looked good for a while but went bad late. Others will always play 8+ point favorites on the road religiously. Of course they also had NE yesterday.

I grew up betting wise on Roxy and the Barbary Coast book as religion and idols of the know all ideologies when it came to Sports Betting. And today’s books do put too much stock into analytics, like a certain Phillies GM, but overall they still make money. And I’m not willing to go as far as saying they are costing the books money. In my mind I would love to believe they are opening incredible opportunities for smart bettors, but my history tells me otherwise.

My thought is the expansion of Sports Betting will bring more players in the arena and books overcompensate on lines. But my history tells me a few large bettors will kill any incorrect lines quickly.

The expansion of sports betting is probably multiple show discussions in itself. But in the end, as we both know, we are always learning, looking for opportunities and in the end, the House edge is still there. Or we could just fade Singer and get rich.

Sorry I missed you in Vegas. Was in Florida, Vegas and PA in the past week. Enjoyed beers in all 3, but when you in Vegas and need a beer, try Sin City on the strip. The Amber is the closest to a Yuengling Lager.

[kewlJ]

….is the closest to a Yuengling Lager.

Ummm….Yuengling Lager. (where is the drooling emoji?)

I had a few Yuengling Lagers 2 weeks ago when I was in Pa. I really miss Yuengling Lager, maybe more than anything else from my time in Philly. I know they brought a brewery in Florida a while back. I was sort of hoping they might go national. But then they might not be good old Yuengling Lager if they did.

[Rob.Singer]

I'm curious and too lazy to go back and look. But if you eliminated your parlays and focused on your locks, I think you're money ahead. More isn't necessarily better.

Yes, quite a bit ahead, especially if I were SELLING my locks as redietz tries to.

Kew is so frustrated with me that he needs to make things up since I won't give him any of my 9-1/2 inches. The rise in bet amounts have nothing to do with trying to recover, and everything to do with betting more as more data becomes available for someone not very familiar with sports betting.

Plus, he is acting like winning or losing $5000 is some life-changing event, which further cements my exposing him as a phony in the gambling world.

[Moses]

Kew is so frustrated with me that he needs to make things up since I won't give him any of my 9-1/2 inches. .

I hate those commodes at Pmill. I have to stand outside the stall and hold the door open to pee.

Whoops. Wrong one.

[redietz]

Well, I plugged my Wise Guys in early, so I'll ramble a little.

The expansion of sports betting creates huge opportunities. A friend of mine, a just-retired CFO, made the kinds of salient points one would expect from a just-retired CFO. I think he was completely correct, so I have to give him credit. I had kind of realized this stuff, but he stated it in a straightforward way that emphasized it.

Basically, here's his theory. The origins of spreads today in December, 2018, are all from formulas and algorithms. These formulas just aren't that sophisticated...yet. The books just compare how the various power ratings and formulas do against each other and make judgements about which to use, which is actually how Billy Walters used to do it with his kept-separate genius squads. Anyway, the books don't really care if a particular sport or type of wager is beatable. They are relying on two things. Those two things are intertwined. The first is volume -- they lay out spreads for halves, quarters, totals -- you name it, the lines are there. The lines are simplistic -- based on history, not necessarily based on the characteristics of the teams as they exist in the now. So the lines are beatable. But the house edge is large enough that they hope the sheer volume creates profit. The second thing is -- how many people do you know who specialize?

Billy Walters had his specialists. Of course he did. What makes a person who beats college hoops think that he can beat college football? What makes an NFL totals winner think he can beat sides? Well, the answers are arrogance, stupidity, and addiction. By creating a cornucopia of betting events every single blessed night, the books hope to hook and profit from even those bettors who have a profitable niche. Halves, quarters, totals, props, player props, on and on. The books will rely on sheer volume to paper over the holes that individual players can poke in their offerings. Everybody gets hooked on the action, right? So even the winners can be turned into losers. At least that is the theory.

Now, if you are not looking to conquer the world, and if your idea of action for most of the year is to watch Agents of SHIELD on ABC, then the books are vulnerable to you. Just treat "action" like it's a bad word. I really think there are lines to be beaten, and I think when the next Billy Walters comes along to assemble teams of specialist savants, he's going to have it easier than Mr. Walters did. Nothing bad can happen when general public perception starts factoring more into line setting.

I wish I were 41 instead of 61.

[redietz]

Rob,

If you've come up with those examples of me "selling picks" this year, please post them so I can mail you the check for 10K and choose my wardrobe for dancing naked between Bellagio and Caesars Palace. I have these elf shorts with bells on the tassels -- got them at Wal-Mart last year for a buck after Christmas. I'll post a photo if you like.

Hang in there, Rob. If you go 15-5, you nail the 60%.

[kewlJ]

Kew is so frustrated with me that he needs to make things up since I won't give him any of my 9-1/2 inches. The rise in bet amounts have nothing to do with trying to recover, and everything to do with betting more as more data becomes available for someone not very familiar with sports betting.

Plus, he is acting like winning or losing $5000 is some life-changing event, which further cements my exposing him as a phony in the gambling world.

Singer stop embarrassing yourself. The only thing measuring 91/2 inches is your nose from all the embellishing and flat out lying that you do.

You haven't made a million or a million and a half dollars from -EV video poker play....you are a net losing player.
You are not well off as you like to claim but live in your daughter's driveway, mooching electricity and other utilities.
You have evictions and other legal judgements against you.
You have a welfare fraud case disqualifying you from further benefits.
And your dick isn't 9 and a half inches, it is 4 and a half inches, on those rare times you can even get an erection these days.

Everything you say is untrue and embellished. You live in an alternative reality. A fantasy world.


And by the way, this 9 and a half inch comment is just the kind of thing I was talking about. When someone brings up the math, and the fact that your math doesn't add up, this is the kind of mis-direction shit that you go to because you have no answers. Everyone is on to your troll games by now.

[The Boz]

KJ, easily the best way to make cash and prove Robbo is a fraud forever. Yea it’s fucking creepy, but everyone knows who Rob Singer is and he can’t get out of it.

Put up $100,000 against his even money his cock doesn’t measure 9 1/2 inches from base of balls to fully erect tip at time of measurement.

It won’t hurt your bankroll to lose and it’s probably the best bet you ever made. Match photo ID to who everyone knows he is from his documented boasts. Even Alan under oath will verify its him.

Easy money, even pick a bank of his choice. Or make it $250,000.

Time to put the money on the line.

[kewlJ]

KJ, easily the best way to make cash and prove Robbo is a fraud forever. Yea it’s fucking creepy, but everyone knows who Rob Singer is and he can’t get out of it.

Put up $100,000 against his even money his cock doesn’t measure 9 1/2 inches from base of balls to fully erect tip at time of measurement.

It won’t hurt your bankroll to lose and it’s probably the best bet you ever made. Match photo ID to who everyone knows he is from his documented boasts. Even Alan under oath will verify its him.

Easy money, even pick a bank of his choice. Or make it $250,000.

Time to put the money on the line.

No thank you Boz. I may be a gay man, but I want nothing to do with even thinking about, much less seeing Harry Argentino's little dick. That is so gross, after vomiting, it might just turn me straight.

But you feel free to take up that wager. I am strongly confident you would win. It is such an unfair wager, you really should be required to give odds.

[redietz]

KJ, easily the best way to make cash and prove Robbo is a fraud forever. Yea it’s fucking creepy, but everyone knows who Rob Singer is and he can’t get out of it.

Put up $100,000 against his even money his cock doesn’t measure 9 1/2 inches from base of balls to fully erect tip at time of measurement.

It won’t hurt your bankroll to lose and it’s probably the best bet you ever made. Match photo ID to who everyone knows he is from his documented boasts. Even Alan under oath will verify its him.

Easy money, even pick a bank of his choice. Or make it $250,000.

Time to put the money on the line.

Uh, Boz. Have you considered that maybe the part of Robocchio that grows with every lie isn't his nose?

[The Boz]

Yea it’s sickening but I’m willing to put up $100k even money Robbo doesn’t have a 9/12 inch cock. Assuming we can agree on the standard terms, I’ll pay $10k to Ron Jeremy to get involved.

Not sure why anyone wouldn’t take this bet.

But like his systems, of course he will come up with an excuse.

But trust me I’m in on this one. And any good gambler would be.

[Moses]

And your dick isn't 9 and a half inches, it is 4 and a half inches, on those rare times you can even get an erection these days.

Everything you say is untrue and embellished. You live in an alternative reality. A fantasy world.

...And then she let out a little giggle and said "just who do plan to please with that"? Zee replied "myself."


I walked in on my ex's grandma sucking her grandpa's dick. That was more than a little weird. I mean why wasn't it cremated along with the rest of him?

[MisterV]

Just so it's clear:

Boz is willing to bet Singer a hundred grand that Singer doesn't have a 9 1/2 inch male organ of procreation / recreation.

Caveat: Would't it be logical for a big prick to have one?

[redietz]

I envision a sequel to "The Man with the 100K Breasts." Rob will borrow 40K for a surgeon to attach a hunk of pachyderm, then claim victory. Nobody said it had to be a "functioning" or "same species" schlong.

[Moses]

Rob,

If you've come up with those examples of me "selling picks" this year, please post them so I can mail you the check for 10K and choose my wardrobe for dancing naked between Bellagio and Caesars Palace.

Mr. V, is that even legal? O he wrote "picks". Whoops my bad.

[Rob.Singer]

Kew is so frustrated with me that he needs to make things up since I won't give him any of my 9-1/2 inches. The rise in bet amounts have nothing to do with trying to recover, and everything to do with betting more as more data becomes available for someone not very familiar with sports betting.

Plus, he is acting like winning or losing $5000 is some life-changing event, which further cements my exposing him as a phony in the gambling world.

Singer stop embarrassing yourself. The only thing measuring 91/2 inches is your nose from all the embellishing and flat out lying that you do.

You haven't made a million or a million and a half dollars from -EV video poker play....you are a net losing player.
You are not well off as you like to claim but live in your daughter's driveway, mooching electricity and other utilities.
You have evictions and other legal judgements against you.
You have a welfare fraud case disqualifying you from further benefits.
And your dick isn't 9 and a half inches, it is 4 and a half inches, on those rare times you can even get an erection these days.

Everything you say is untrue and embellished. You live in an alternative reality. A fantasy world.


And by the way, this 9 and a half inch comment is just the kind of thing I was talking about. When someone brings up the math, and the fact that your math doesn't add up, this is the kind of mis-direction shit that you go to because you have no answers. Everyone is on to your troll games by now.

....even when you don't say it, you do. You'll be dreaming about me even more tonight kew. But what I like about you is how rattled and confused you get even when we're not discussing dick. I don't think you realize that you said the people who say they win by betting sports are all liars, because it's a -EV affair so nobody can win.

So now tell me this if you please: aren't you tired of those wussy girly-men and their piddly loads?

[Rob.Singer]

KJ, easily the best way to make cash and prove Robbo is a fraud forever. Yea it’s fucking creepy, but everyone knows who Rob Singer is and he can’t get out of it.

Put up $100,000 against his even money his cock doesn’t measure 9 1/2 inches from base of balls to fully erect tip at time of measurement.

It won’t hurt your bankroll to lose and it’s probably the best bet you ever made. Match photo ID to who everyone knows he is from his documented boasts. Even Alan under oath will verify its him.

Easy money, even pick a bank of his choice. Or make it $250,000.

Time to put the money on the line.

No thank you Boz. I may be a gay man, but I want nothing to do with even thinking about, much less seeing Harry Argentino's little dick. That is so gross, after vomiting, it might just turn me straight.

But you feel free to take up that wager. I am strongly confident you would win. It is such an unfair wager, you really should be required to give odds.

Maybe his mommy might want to take the "action" for him? HE might be happy with piddly loads....but mommy dearest?! Hmmmm.
Just sayin'....since she does everything else for the poor little fellow

[Rob.Singer]

Rob,

If you've come up with those examples of me "selling picks" this year, please post them so I can mail you the check for 10K and choose my wardrobe for dancing naked between Bellagio and Caesars Palace.

Mr. V, is that even legal? O he wrote "picks". Whoops my bad.

No harm no foul MrV--red will sell anything he can get his hands on.