I have to agree with myself. You're an idiot who doesn't understand the word, "Expectation," when used in a gambling context.
By the way, if you win once and then lose and take your rebate, you're up $200,000. It's really not that fucking hard.
Also, if you lose the first one and get $200,000 back, you're down $800,000 overall. If you follow that with a win, then you add $1,000,000 and you're up $200,000 overall.
Pretend you start with $2,000,000 Alan, so you don't confuse yourself. Try really hard to follow this:
$2,000,000
$2,000,000 - $1,000,000 (Lost) = $1,000,000
$1,000,000 + $200,000 (20% Back) = $1,200,000
$1,200,000 + $1,000,000 (Win) = $2,200,000
$2,200,000 - $2,000,000 = $200,000 (Profit)
That's what happens with one win and one loss in any order.
Now you see why I try to stick to easy stuff like coin flips. I'm doing that for you, Alan.
(Redacted)
I typed a paragraph really tearing into your intelligence, but fuck, I can't do it, man. It's like making a small child who I'm not even related to cry. You're trying really hard, Alan. I'll have your participation trophy ready when we meet so you can give me those nuggets.