What's my edge in craps?

[Alan Mendelson]

Redietz I share your view. I think DI is not attainable by the masses. I don't think you can take a course and become a DI. Over the years I've seen three and maybe four players who might have influence over the dice. (Respects to regnis because I've never seen him shoot.)

But do you need to be a DI to have an edge at craps? I don't think so. If you are a smart bettor you can improve your chances of winning. And if you can make sense out of the performance of the shooter you can also improve your chance of winning.

Ever see a dark side bettor clean up at a table of wild dice throwers?

[MisterV]

If you are a smart bettor you can improve your chances of winning. And if you can make sense out of the performance of the shooter you can also improve your chance of winning.

Please explain just what the hell you are talking about here.

"Smart bettor?"

"Make sense of the performance of the shooter?"

Oh, spare us anecdotal stories, just explain the basis / foundation of your claims.

Otherwise it's just more bovine excrement dangling from a goat rope.

[regnis]

I have to step in here. Two goat rope references violates forum rules

[mickeycrimm]

Not only did I question myself by saying "I think" but I also asked for assistance to not only monitor my rolls but for someone to analyze my rolls using their formula or software. But what do I get? I get the usual criticisms from the usual suspects who say the usual things to anyone who is not part of their clique.

Screw all of you, including you MaxPen, RS__, Axel and the rest of you.

I don't blame you for being pissed that no one volunteered to do all that work free of charge.

[jbjb]

Not only did I question myself by saying "I think" but I also asked for assistance to not only monitor my rolls but for someone to analyze my rolls using their formula or software. But what do I get? I get the usual criticisms from the usual suspects who say the usual things to anyone who is not part of their clique.

Screw all of you, including you MaxPen, RS__, Axel and the rest of you.

I don't blame you for being pissed that no one volunteered to do all that work free of charge.

Because it would be nothing but a huge waste of time. Past rolls have no damn affect on future rolls. NOBODY, not Alan, Frank, Dominator, or any of you can change the odds, PERIOD!! GIVE IT UP!! DI/DC is a mf'n SCAM!!

[Alan Mendelson]

Odds don't change, jbjb. Just as EV doesn't change.

How do you improve your performance at the table? First you avoid the crazy bets. Second you realize that the max odds on come bets while they have a zero house edge have a 60% chance of losing.

The performance of the shooter? Some shooters just can't win. No one says you have to bet on every shooter.

[regnis]

Redietz I share your view. I think DI is not attainable by the masses. I don't think you can take a course and become a DI. Over the years I've seen three and maybe four players who might have influence over the dice. (Respects to regnis because I've never seen him shoot.)

But do you need to be a DI to have an edge at craps? I don't think so. If you are a smart bettor you can improve your chances of winning. And if you can make sense out of the performance of the shooter you can also improve your chance of winning.

Ever see a dark side bettor clean up at a table of wild dice throwers?

I am still surprised that people don't even try. Whether you believe it or not, any consistency, even if unintended, is usually better than the random wild thrower.

I remember a guy that consistently rolled 4. It was unintentional but he did have a consistent throw. For whatever reason, and whatever his set was, it resulted in a lot of 4's. we followed him around all weekend and bet the 4.
Does he always throw a lot of 4's? I have no idea. But for 4 days he did.

[AxelWolf]

But do you need to be a DI to have an edge at craps? I don't think so. If you are a smart bettor you can improve your chances of winning.

WOW JUST WOW!!!! Someone is losing their mind. Gambling can do that to you.

[regnis]

If you are a smart bettor you can improve your chances of winning.

Nothing wrong with that statement.

[MisterV]

Gambling is not rocket science; whether you are smart or not should not be a factor.

Normally intelligent people have no problem grasping the rules and learning the best plays, i.e. the ones with the lowest house edge.

No, Einstein would probably have no greater advantage at a craps table than would anyone else.

The tough part is playing a disciplined game

[Dan Druff]

Alan, this is all getting too complicated.

How about I just crossbook you during a craps session?

I will come down with you. Whatever you win, I will pay you. Whatever you lose, you will pay me.

So if you start with $1000 and finish with $1500, I owe you $500.

If you start with $1000 and finish with $300, you owe me $700.

We will obviously have to make some kind of rule regarding limits played, so you don't play too high and hit a super lucky bonus bet which costs me a fortune.

But aside from that, I'm willing to do it.

[Dan Druff]

Or we could just exclude bonus bets from the whole thing.

[Alan Mendelson]

So Dan, you come to the discussion late and throw out something I never suggested nor would I accept.

If you want to make a bet do it with someone else.

In the meantime why haven't you gotten rid of the hate mongers who have been posting hate messages against Jews and Gays after you said it wouldn't be tolerated?

[Dan Druff]

I haven't checked all the threads yet. Which threads have the offensive messages?

I am not understanding what is wrong with my bet. Didn't you say you have an edge in craps? If so, why not bet me that you will win? You can even bet half your normal limits, so it will basically be the same as betting with the casino, except I will be booking half the action instead.

If that's not acceptable, what bet would you like to have with me?

BTW, I am willing to have each of us keep the cash in our pockets, provided we both sign a contract at the beginning to pay each other whatever we lose. I realize the contract will not be enforceable in court, but it would be good enough to ruin the other's name in the court of public opinion, and that's good enough. So I'm sure we can both trust each other to pay with such a contract, since your reputation in TV is important, and my reputation in poker is important.

[Alan Mendelson]

MrV wrote "Normally intelligent people have no problem grasping the rules and learning the best plays, i.e. the ones with the lowest house edge."

Yes you don't have to be incredibly smart to avoid the bets that will bust you such as hop bets, horn bets, hardway bets and those so-called "zero edge odds bets" that have a 60% chance of losing. Do you think Station Casinos offer 10X odds because they want to give away their money?

[Dan Druff]

Alan, what everyone is having a hard time understanding is HOW you believe you have an edge in craps.

If you're not dice-influencing, and if you're playing a mathematically negative game, then exactly where is the edge?

If you could see the future regarding what would be a good and bad session, sure you could have an edge that way, but obviously you can't.

BTW if you can indeed see the future, tell me if I will cash in the $10,000 Limit Holdem WSOP event on Monday. If the answer is no, then I'll skip it.

[kewlJ]

But do you need to be a DI to have an edge at craps? I don't think so. If you are a smart bettor you can improve your chances of winning.

WOW JUST WOW!!!! Someone is losing their mind. Gambling can do that to you.

Yeah, this really does explain EVERYTHING.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj, curiously you avoided the comment by regnis who is a craps player. Regnis wrote:

"If you are a smart bettor you can improve your chances of winning.

Nothing wrong with that statement."

If I recall kewlj you don't play craps?

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, what everyone is having a hard time understanding is HOW you believe you have an edge in craps.

If you're not dice-influencing, and if you're playing a mathematically negative game, then exactly where is the edge?

If you could see the future regarding what would be a good and bad session, sure you could have an edge that way, but obviously you can't.

BTW if you can indeed see the future, tell me if I will cash in the $10,000 Limit Holdem WSOP event on Monday. If the answer is no, then I'll skip it.

Dan again you failed to read my initial post. I wrote I think I have an edge but I asked for monitoring and a test of my results with whatever formula or program anyone wants to use.

I am going to repeat what I wrote before. I do have a high SRR (seven to rolls ratio) but I lack the results of a traditional good shooter including making passes and repeating numbers for come bettors. My high SRR allows me to have a profit on the Small, Tall and All bets. But I don't know if that fits the definition of an edge.

I don't think you ever played craps in your life but I think you want to be part of the AP gang so I didn't really expect you to even look at what I wrote.

Did you remove the posters who make the anti Gay and anti Jewish hate comments yet? I've been copying and texting those comments to you.

[Alan Mendelson]

About private betting: I don't bet against individuals. Never did and never will. My betting is in casinos and office lottery pools. I did not bring up the betting over my edge. That was started I think by Coach Belly responding to comments by AxelWolf.