Skill vs Luck in Video Poker

[Rob.Singer]

The single, most often complaint I get about this forum is that it is a personal battleground for you and Arci. Please, let's stick to issues here. And even the issues sometimes get clouded.

But he's so much FUN to irritate and see his reactions to it! Where else can you see a grown man jump up & down like a denied child, then use all those cliches to pretend nothing bothered him? We can only get so many laughs at his confused video poker beliefs. But nothing matches the belly laughs I have when I get under his thin skin.

I'll try to tone it down though as you wish. It's just I've got so much time sitting here since I can't do much else yet. How does he do it?

[arcimede$]

But he's so much FUN to irritate and see his reactions to it! Where else can you see a grown man jump up & down like a denied child, then use all those cliches to pretend nothing bothered him? We can only get so many laughs at his confused video poker beliefs. But nothing matches the belly laughs I have when I get under his thin skin.

I'll try to tone it down though as you wish. It's just I've got so much time sitting here since I can't do much else yet. How does he do it?

Looks like I really hit the nail on the head. Wheels starts projecting like crazy when "I get under his thin skin". ROTFLMAO.

[Rob.Singer]

I told you Alan. It's like painting by the numbers when he uses his cliches! Why anybody would want me to stop playing him like a fiddle and show how irritated he gets by hiding it all behind them....I'll never know.

Now It's Sat. night, date night right? Well, I have to take this one off, but Cindy just went to the grocery store and a few other stops along the way so she can cook up one more of her delicious dinners for us tonight. Oops, sorry arci.....

[Alan Mendelson]

Come on kids, enough -- stop. That goes for Rob and for Arc. Final warning. If it's not about a serious discussion of video poker or another valid subject, I will delete the posts. I'm the one who has to answer the email complaints.

[redietz]

I'm having trouble with the themes of this Las Vegas Forum thread. The gist of it seems to be one should be aware that one can lose gambling (big surprise), but if you play, to help avoid losing, one should incorporate win goals and non optimal play. Also, that federally backed pension programs are superior to playing video poker as an investment, and also that live poker takes more skill than video poker, and that it's actually possible to put numbers on things called luck and skill in various endeavors.

Truly a hallucinogenic thread. Perhaps we've tapped into the swirling consciousness of Rob after his head hit that pole.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm having trouble with the themes of this Las Vegas Forum thread. The gist of it seems to be one should be aware that one can lose gambling (big surprise), but if you play, to help avoid losing, one should incorporate win goals and non optimal play. Also, that federally backed pension programs are superior to playing video poker as an investment, and also that live poker takes more skill than video poker, and that it's actually possible to put numbers on things called luck and skill in various endeavors.

Actually, you summed it up very nicely for the Readers Digest edition.

[Rob.Singer]

We're just not used to all the time medical issues affords around here, that's all. I get bored if I can't rumble around outside. But I'm sure others (wink wink) can and do get used to it. Some call it an acquired SKILL, while others call it nothing but a pile of BAD LUCK.

[arcimede$]

Actually, you summed it up very nicely for the Readers Digest edition.

Which tells anyone with a couple of working neurons to head elsewhere for information.

[Rob.Singer]

Yup, he got it!

Guess he really "mopped up"! This is fun....I couldn't enjoy myself more if I were "popping pills"!

[arcimede$]

Yup, he got it!

Guess he really "mopped up"! This is fun....I couldn't enjoy myself more if I were "popping pills"!

Only wheels could believe the US economy is a better investment choice than a solid, high edge VP play. I guess that's why he says the ridiculous things he does. Sounds like he'll be voting for Obama.

[Alan Mendelson]

Only wheels could believe the US economy is a better investment choice than a solid, high edge VP play. I guess that's why he says the ridiculous things he does. Sounds like he'll be voting for Obama.

Arc, are you saying that playing VP even with a high edge, is a safer and better investment for your money than government bonds?

[arcimede$]

Arc, are you saying that playing VP even with a high edge, is a safer and better investment for your money than government bonds?

With a high edge ... definitely. The problem though is there's only so much money you can really invest in a high edge. I figure 30-50K is enough with a good edge as a bankroll. If you have a large sum of savings and/or 401K then that would only be a small piece of the action.

[Alan Mendelson]

With a high edge ... definitely. The problem though is there's only so much money you can really invest in a high edge. I figure 30-50K is enough with a good edge as a bankroll. If you have a large sum of savings and/or 401K then that would only be a small piece of the action.

Okay, one more question. Just how high is your edge?

[Rob.Singer]

Alan, he doesn't really believe that, only he has no choice but to follow it thru since he was in Fail Mode once again trying to outwit me.

Ask him what he thinks about an issue much closer to him that eats away at his memories: health care. He'll say you can get better treatment in Cuba, but once again, he'd be responding thru a shaking rattle.

[arcimede$]

Okay, one more question. Just how high is your edge?

High enough. It's not a constant value.

[Alan Mendelson]

High enough. It's not a constant value.

That answer is not good enough Arc. I'm not going to pursue this part of the discussion anymore because if you go around telling intelligent people that you are better off putting your money in a video poker machine rather than in US government bonds they'll call you stupid or an addict or just crazy.

Here's a tip: don't discuss video poker if you ever have to sit down with a loan officer or a trustee should you ever need one for your retirement planning. If you do you might get a big surprise about how the rest of the world views your obsessive play.

[arcimede$]

That answer is not good enough Arc. I'm not going to pursue this part of the discussion anymore because if you go around telling intelligent people that you are better off putting your money in a video poker machine rather than in US government bonds they'll call you stupid or an addict or just crazy.

Anyone who would make a comment like that without knowing the return of the VP machine would be an example of a fool. Why would I care what a fool says?

Here's a tip: don't discuss video poker if you ever have to sit down with a loan officer or a trustee should you ever need one for your retirement planning. If you do you might get a big surprise about how the rest of the world views your obsessive play.

Fine with me. The people who would make that kind of comment are clearly not very smart. Personally, I don't take advice from idiots. Do you?

[Alan Mendelson]

Anyone who would make a comment like that without knowing the return of the VP machine would be an example of a fool. Why would I care what a fool says?

Fine with me. The people who would make that kind of comment are clearly not very smart. Personally, I don't take advice from idiots. Do you?

I remember covering the junk bond crisis. I remember all those investors who poured all of their life savings into those "corporate bonds" with high returns of 15 to 30 percent.

I also remember when Milken went to jail, and his empire crumbled and I remember interviewing the brokers leaving Milken's building in Beverly Hills with their personal stuff in boxes.

Ah yes, the RETURN on the bonds. Yes, how could anyone miss with those HIGH RETURNS??

As Mark Twain originally said, and as Will Rogers quoted, "I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money."

Again the question, Arc, which is the better investment: US government bonds, or video poker? Please get it right the second time.

[arcimede$]

Again the question, Arc, which is the better investment: US government bonds, or video poker? Please get it right the second time.

Like most questions you didn't provide enough information. The answer depends on the return of the game. Sure, for the vast majority of VP games out there the return of those games is essentially a negative number. They would never be a good investment. However, there do exist a few games that far outperform bonds. Sorry if you don't like the answer.

[Alan Mendelson]

Like most questions you didn't provide enough information. The answer depends on the return of the game. Sure, for the vast majority of VP games out there the return of those games is essentially a negative number. They would never be a good investment. However, there do exist a few games that far outperform bonds. Sorry if you don't like the answer.

No additional information was needed, Arc. Because it makes no difference if we are talking about a video poker game with a negative expectation or a positive expectation. When it comes to investment and security there is no comparison between the return on your money and the return of your money.

If you are investing your money the better investment is always the investment that will guarantee the return of your money. NO casino game will guarantee the return of your money.

The US Government has never defaulted on a bond. I want to make it clear to my readers and viewers who have followed me for more than 35 years on TV and for longer than that on radio and when I wrote for Barron's and the financial press do not -- repeat -- do not allow yourself to be duped by anyone who claims that they can sell you a system, a technique, a method, or a bet that can guarantee you the return of your money in any casino game or that any casino game will offer you more security than an investment in U.S. government insured bonds or the debt obligations of the U.S. government.