Can't conclusively conclude anything, no matter how many, or few, trials. A coin that lands head once must be assumed biased to land head. Conversely, a coin that lands head a million times in a row can't be expected with certainty to ever land head, again.
The probability of head may be 1, but, it doesn't have to happen. There's nothing physically attached to the coin to ensure that it ever does. Same as its probability of 0 doesn't mean that it can't happen. As long as there is a coin, it can, still, happen.
Certainty can't be defined, and, then, demonstrated, in a straight-up way. Same for trying to define randomness. Perhaps, a randomized coin must always land edge.
So, so much for putting faith in death, and taxes, or, CEO's, and presidents, of companies, which, I guess, are just another form of formicarium. Let alone some bozo named Ben Affleck. Ha.
Last edited by Garnabby; 01-13-2022 at 01:04 PM.
Every one /everyone knows it all; yet, no thing /nothing is truly known by any one /anyone. Similarly, the suckers think that they win, but, the house always wins, unless to hand out an even worse beating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsa6ojQcYXQ
Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder (or 1HitWonder, 1Hit1der) + Bill Yung ---> GOTTLOB1, or GOTTLOB = Praise to God!
Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/
You treat this as if it's math, coin flips. And all straight plays. It's not. It's opinion. It's middle shooting based on familiarity with likely line moves. It's knowing what you don't know when you don't know. It is not at all coin flips or blackjack or some static exercise. This is where guys like you and Shackleford are halfway missing the boat.
I always say five years is enough time to evaluate a handicapper in one sport. Three years is generally enough. One year gives you a sense of what he or she is trying to do, but anything can happen in one year. I think I was 72-36 in college football or something like that in a weekly paper, The Valley View Citizen Standard, back in 1979. I had a column as the sports editor. I knew I had won literally a dozen games I should have lost. The next year, I started up the sports service on a national level and had a losing year. That can happen variance-wise, but it is not flipping coins. It's asking the right questions and forming a matrix in your head of who can do what to whom. Sometimes that matrix coalesces and carries you through an entire year. Sometimes you never start off asking the right questions and it's all a blooming, buzzing confusion. But it's not coin flips.
I don't know if I should be surprised when you make a really good point using direct language, or not. Anyway, you're absolutely right, nothing along those lines can ever be conclusively demonstrated...but that a given sports picker is achieving a particular win rate due to skill rather than variance can grow ever more likely as the sample size increases. I guess you never could be absolutely sure of it, though.
Making a point against me with the exact same argument that I'd sometimes use...I love it.
I don't even bet sports unless it's impossible for me NOT to profit, which would have to be something outside of the bets themselves causing me to lose money. I know that not all picks are ATS, ML or TOTALS...and even when they are, it's not always about making a straight up pick and sticking with it. I know there are better margins to be had than picking 53.x% on straight up type picks. I still don't love the margins, but maybe I would if I knew the best plays and tactics.
I guess what I am saying is that I'm on dry land and what knowledge of sports betting I do have is very rudimentary; I'm not even trying to catch the boat. I do not deny that this is so. I don't know what you bet or sell, but I do know there are services that just sell picks on the vanilla lines.
Nice... I learned a new word... Formicarium.
Auto Correct does not like this word.
I however, love to watch ants.
Is he selling something here? Why would he disclose his fees at a place where he is not attempting to make a sale? When I sold furniture, for example, I didn't go to the cafeteria at the university and tell all of my friends about the sales we were having on mattresses that week.
The discussion is about selling sports picks.
You wrote above that you'd like full disclosure, he would disclose the information to help you with your examination, not necessarily because he's trying to make a sale.
I recall him mentioning his fee structure, so he can explain why he's done that here.
Well, not much I can say there. By that standard, I do the same thing in both writing and vulturing. Vulturing because, if nobody lost over the long run, then there wouldn't be any casinos. If other people don't lose, then I couldn't win. The websites, of course, because we literally advertise for casinos.
The only difference between the two of us in that regard is that I do not directly charge gamblers for anything and do nothing to negatively influence their gambling habits directly.
Good to know. Who's been getting the money? Coach, had you been poaching my income without me noticing?
(Coach probably thinks it's a gotcha moment, so I'm letting him know in advance that it's not. I'm kind like that with civilians. Coach will now not mention the "it's significantly more" because he'll figure it out how wrong he was, so kudos to coach.)
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