BS AP's

[AxelWolf]

People will share what's true. Anything that happens in public is public.

If there is a public offer from a casino why would you keep it a secret when the casino had made it public (Axel's claim about a 150% loss rebate)?

But a dealer flashing cards is not public so that can be kept a secret.

KJ summed it up fairly well.

I would like to add a few things. AP's are not just in competition with the casinos, they are also in competition with other AP's(they are competing for the casino's money)

Think of it like a drawing. Let's say you have a 20k drawing and the casinos requirement in order to earn tickets is to hit something in particular.
You as an AP have narrowed down the best things to play( Best things doesn't mean the lowest HA, manny AP's make that mistake, including "the best")

Let's say you have narrowed it down a few games that will earn tickets 100 times faster than any other game in the house at a low cost per ticket.

If there was no competition you could easily have 75% of the drawing tickets at Mabey a cost of $2500 and a few days of work (little or no ploppies are going to play what and how you are playing). Let's say another AP finds out about the drawing. He strolls in and sees what game(s) you are playing. He's on easy street now that hes seen what you are playing and how, all he has to do is find a vacant spot and start compeeting for the money. You just dropped your 12,500 in value down to half that, if he goes for as you have. If you get into a drawing battle with him your value will keep dropping as you lose more and more money to the house trying to earn tickets. Add 2 more APs to the mix and you can see how much money just a few more AP's can cost you, 12k down to 3k. I have seen cases where drawings have went from+EV to -EV after the fact.

In cases where the casino doesn't have a set limit like a drawing, they will cut off a promo/game once they realize they are probably giving out too much money. The more AP's playing it, the faster they give out money, the sooner it ends. If an AP had it all to himself he would get all that money for himself.

I have seen it time and time again, a +EV situation lasts for a long time and suddenly a bunch of APs start showing up and it ends soon after.

There are many situations where one AP couldn't possibly get all the money himself, so sharing the information with a few others will not cost him anything. AP's usually have a good sence what they should and shouldn't share with others outside their group.

[AxelWolf]

[QUOTE=kewlJ;49930]

But I thought you liked dick(s)?

WoW! A new site (for me) that I don't participate on often and there may be some that don't know me and you couldn't wait to announce that I am gay. What the hell is wrong with you? Are you that small of a person? While I respect you as an AP and have learned some useful things from you, YES, you can be and often are....a real dick!

For those that don't know me....it seems to very important to Axel that you all know my sexual preference...so yes I am a gay man. That in no way defines me. I am never the one that brings it up and I hope it is as irrelevant to you and any discussions we may have as it is to me.

Sorry, I just couldn't resist that one, you kinda walked into that one. It could have been avoided by not calling AxelWolf a Dick. I was not thinking about the fact that this was a new forum to you. You have to admit, under different circumstances, it would have been a nice/funny comeback for the dick comment. I will play nice if you play nice, and don't start in with all that other BS. I will say, you have classed up the joint bit. Happy posting.

[Alan Mendelson]

Sorry but any casino offering 150% loss rebates would advertise the hell out of it. They wouldn't want it to be a secret for the APs. The BS meter is flashing red.

[RS__]

The "APs" (and I include Rob because he does "advantage plays" of a different kind) would be better participants here if they would do less criticizing and shared more of their knowledge.

Sharing knowledge does not mean revealing the particular dealer at the particular casino who flashes cards. Sharing knowledge does not mean revealing the single video poker machine that in error offers 9/5 BONUS poker.

But sharing knowledge does mean offering something constructive and without the constant insulting.

Yet, every time an AP does share their knowledge here, you and Rob attack it saying it's not beneficial, any good, or something like, "But I live in LA, I don't live in City X, therefore this means nothing to me." Hell, you don't even think getting a 20% rebate on each individual losing hand on VP is good. It's always the same shit -- you & Rob chime in about "phantom bucks" or whatever else BS you guys think.

A perfect example of this -- Alan (in the other thread) is arguing some bullshit about "the English language", thinking the wording of something is more important than the math or the reality of it.

Sorry but any casino offering 150% loss rebates would advertise the hell out of it. They wouldn't want it to be a secret for the APs. The BS meter is flashing red.

The one I'm thinking of -- I don't think they're doing it anymore (I just checked their website), but a casino was absolutely doing a 150% loss rebate...although it was for a small amount.

[AxelWolf]

Sorry but any casino offering 150% loss rebates would advertise the hell out of it. They wouldn't want it to be a secret for the APs. The BS meter is flashing red.

I'm not going to be goaded into revealing something just to quell your curiosity, prove you wrong or defend myself from you trying to call BS on me. Especially when I have nothing to gain, You are not the only one that has tried that on me, without success. I think you are willing to have egg on your face just to find out the information. If want to put your money where your mouth is, then let's talk.

I think you have been hanging around with too many people here, people that tell blatant lies just to prove something or try to make themselves look better. I suggest you not confuse or lump me in with those people.
But if you chose to call BS, be willing to put up or shut up.

Others around me IRL know whatever I claim to be true. I don't need to make up shit, I have had enough interesting things happen (good and bad) in gambling and life in general. Yet you think I'm going to make up a 150% loss rebate just to prove you wrong? If I was going to make that shit up I would just say 110%. I don't even think you are wrong when you say, if you lose money and you just get it back in free play then you haven't made any money. But you sound foolish when you are talking about loss rebates. Especially when you don't realize how easy it is to consistently get back at least 85% ++ OR WIN playing your free play. Especially when there are games and way to play you haven't even thought about. That's why you don't put much stock in them.

Mike talked about the Downtown Grand slot Loss rebate. I can tell you how you got back about 5% more than what you lost, actully more, but to be safe ill say 5%. (I may have mention it to Mike, but im not sure if he will rember or if he went for the extra 5%). Yet another example of... you just don't know what you are talking about when it comes to simple AP and its value.

Speaking of BS meters flashing red. 3 things you have said come to mind. All 3 sound much less believable than a 150% LR. 2 of them are conveniently not provable and one is more likely due to a result of hallucinations stemming from medical conditions. The other is provable, but I have a feeling you won't/can't prove it for some reason or another.
1)You lost 20 hands of BJ in a row (the first time you played?)
2)Your Son hit 4 SINGLE LINE Royals in 2 different cities all in one day.... AND still lost.
3)**Drom roll**.... 18 yo's in a row and no one bet it. (they must have killed all the whitnesses but you)

[Alan Mendelson]

Before I went into the advertising business I was a news reporter with AP, UPI, CBS, CNN and a half dozen TV and radio stations. I wrote for Barron's, I did radio for Bloomberg, I was published in The Columbia Journalism Review and The Washington Journalism Review.

With that said let me give you the facts of life:

No one would give these AP claims the time of day. They'd be put in the same circular file as the predictions for the next sighting of The Loch Ness Monster and the arrival of visitors from Venus.

In short: put up or shut up.

[Alan Mendelson]

Axel: my son hit FIVE single line royals in less than 24 hours. One at the Gold Strike and four at Caesars. He's a member of this forum. I hope he reads this.

Yes I lost twenty $1 hands of blackjack in a row at the old Sahara. Shit happens.

And yes, I watched a random roller throw 18 elevens in a row at Caesars and not one of the three of us at the table had even one dollar on the yo. Shit happens again.

[AxelWolf]

Before I went into the advertising business I was a news reporter with AP, UPI, CBS, CNN and a half dozen TV and radio stations. I wrote for Barron's, I did radio for Bloomberg, I was published in The Columbia Journalism Review and The Washington Journalism Review.

With that said let me give you the facts of life:

No one would give these AP claims the time of day. They'd be put in the same circular file as the predictions for the next sighting of The Loch Ness Monster and the arrival of visitors from Venus.

In short: put up or shut up.

What claims are you talking about? I dont get what thats suposed to mean. I really dont know who would care much about AP claims other than people interested in gambling or AP. No one? You sure do seem to be interested and giveing it the time of the day. Do you know what I do when im not intersted in somthing? I IGNORE IT.

What would you like me to put up or shut up about? Tell me what claim im making that you don't believe and I will put up.

I see RS just mention another 150% loss rebate and it was not even the one I was thinking of. I know there had been another place that had one as well, but I cant rember what place it was now so i didnt bother menoning it. I'm willing to bet you regaring the location I was talking about.

[Alan Mendelson]

Name the casino with the 150% loss rebate.

[redietz]

Sorry but any casino offering 150% loss rebates would advertise the hell out of it. They wouldn't want it to be a secret for the APs. The BS meter is flashing red.

I'm not going to be goaded into revealing something just to quell your curiosity, prove you wrong or defend myself from you trying to call BS on me. Especially when I have nothing to gain, You are not the only one that has tried that on me, without success. I think you are willing to have egg on your face just to find out the information. If want to put your money where your mouth is, then let's talk.

I think you have been hanging around with too many people here, people that tell blatant lies just to prove something or try to make themselves look better. I suggest you not confuse or lump me in with those people.
But if you chose to call BS, be willing to put up or shut up.

Others around me IRL know whatever I claim to be true. I don't need to make up shit, I have had enough interesting things happen (good and bad) in gambling and life in general. Yet you think I'm going to make up a 150% loss rebate just to prove you wrong? If I was going to make that shit up I would just say 110%. I don't even think you are wrong when you say, if you lose money and you just get it back in free play then you haven't made any money. But you sound foolish when you are talking about loss rebates. Especially when you don't realize how easy it is to consistently get back at least 85% ++ OR WIN playing your free play. Especially when there are games and way to play you haven't even thought about. That's why you don't put much stock in them.

Mike talked about the Downtown Grand slot Loss rebate. I can tell you how you got back about 5% more than what you lost, actully more, but to be safe ill say 5%. (I may have mention it to Mike, but im not sure if he will rember or if he went for the extra 5%). Yet another example of... you just don't know what you are talking about when it comes to simple AP and its value.

Speaking of BS meters flashing red. 3 things you have said come to mind. All 3 sound much less believable than a 150% LR. 2 of them are conveniently not provable and one is more likely due to a result of hallucinations stemming from medical conditions. The other is provable, but I have a feeling you won't/can't prove it for some reason or another.
1)You lost 20 hands of BJ in a row (the first time you played?)
2)Your Son hit 4 SINGLE LINE Royals in 2 different cities all in one day.... AND still lost.
3)**Drom roll**.... 18 yo's in a row and no one bet it. (they must have killed all the whitnesses but you)

Axel,

I gotta tell you this one. I hit three single line royals in the span of less than an hour and a half of play (I play slow). I have told this one before, but it's so bad, it bears repeating. It was more than 10 years ago.

The first one, I'm at the Palms, waiting for the sports book to open. They had some promo where if your card was in the machine and you were playing and had earned minimal points or something at 9 AM, you got a free breakfast -- something like that. So I sat and played a quarter at a time waiting for the book to open. It was on the old FPDW progressive bank. So I'm sitting there playing and ka-ching! Royal with one coin. The woman sitting next to me gives me a disgusted look and says, "I'd have rather not hit it." Well, the book is still not open, and I think to myself that hey, life is good, it's okay. She leaves, and I play max coins. In the span of just a few minutes, I hit a max coin royal. Yay!

Later that day, I am putting my football contest entries in at Palace Station. They had the old promo where the jumbo jackpot thing was very close to being hit, and if you had your card in the machine when it hit, you got $50. So I sat down and played, figuring it had to hit in less than an hour. Plus I wanted some drinks while I was playing. Of course, despite hitting the royals earlier, I figured -- hey, I'm not going to hit a third, get real -- so I played (drum roll, please) a quarter at a time.

Yep, I hit a third one. With a quarter in the machine.

Unbelievable. But it happened. To put this in perspective, I routinely bet a couple thousand a game on football. I should have been shot. No, I did not lose for the day. After that debacle, I quit (for the day).

[Alan Mendelson]

Let's not forget my girlfriend who was DEALT two royals in two days.Sometimes the math guys can't deal with big numbers. Shit happens even when the odds say they won't. Deal with it.

[redietz]

The "APs" (and I include Rob because he does "advantage plays" of a different kind) would be better participants here if they would do less criticizing and shared more of their knowledge.

Sharing knowledge does not mean revealing the particular dealer at the particular casino who flashes cards. Sharing knowledge does not mean revealing the single video poker machine that in error offers 9/5 BONUS poker.

But sharing knowledge does mean offering something constructive and without the constant insulting.

Yet, every time an AP does share their knowledge here, you and Rob attack it saying it's not beneficial, any good, or something like, "But I live in LA, I don't live in City X, therefore this means nothing to me." Hell, you don't even think getting a 20% rebate on each individual losing hand on VP is good. It's always the same shit -- you & Rob chime in about "phantom bucks" or whatever else BS you guys think.

A perfect example of this -- Alan (in the other thread) is arguing some bullshit about "the English language", thinking the wording of something is more important than the math or the reality of it.

Sorry but any casino offering 150% loss rebates would advertise the hell out of it. They wouldn't want it to be a secret for the APs. The BS meter is flashing red.

The one I'm thinking of -- I don't think they're doing it anymore (I just checked their website), but a casino was absolutely doing a 150% loss rebate...although it was for a small amount.

RS, the English language line made me cringe. Writing is not something that just willy nilly happens. It has a grammar and logic and flow chart decision-making at each and every step of the process. Good writing is, in many ways, as tightly constructed as math formulas.

The dice cup "problem" was written to engender a particular response, in this case the "wrong" one, from a majority of people. The writing is not an accident. No writing is an accident, or an afterthought. Writing should be (and in the dice cup example, is) as purposeful as a screenplay. Every line, every camera angle, what follows what and how, these are decisions designed to have effects on an audience.

If the effect of writing is a wrong conclusion for most people, the fault lies in the author, not the reader. If the network coverage of a football game has cameras pointing at weird angles at the sky and the grass and bathroom stalls in the stadium, then not knowing the score of the game is not the fault of the viewers at home.

This inability to appreciate that language is not a set of tools anyone can pretty much pluck from the tool box and use to the same effect is common and recent. It might be a byproduct of communication occurring between niche groups that share some sub-cultural jargon and rely on the jargon too much. It's almost undoubtedly influenced by communication via truncated third-grade phrasing, as occurs with most texts and almost all tweets. Texts and tweets and jargon don't enable communication. They retard it.

[mickeycrimm]

Let's not forget my girlfriend who was DEALT two royals in two days.Sometimes the math guys can't deal with big numbers. Shit happens even when the odds say they won't. Deal with it.

Alan, this is a classic example of you attributing things to the math guys (AP's) that just aren't true. Twice I've hit 3 royals is the span of four hours. But to put it in perspective I've also gone a quarter million hands between royals. That's the best and the worst that's happened to me in over 21 years of playing video poker. We're talking multi-millions of hands. The bigger the sample space the more of the extremes you will see.

[mickeycrimm]

Before I went into the advertising business I was a news reporter with AP, UPI, CBS, CNN and a half dozen TV and radio stations. I wrote for Barron's, I did radio for Bloomberg, I was published in The Columbia Journalism Review and The Washington Journalism Review. With that said let me give you the facts of life: No one would give these AP claims the time of day. They'd be put in the same circular file as the predictions for the next sighting of The Loch Ness Monster and the arrival of visitors from Venus. In short: put up or shut up.

Jean Scott, an advantage video poker player was on 60 minutes. I remember Ken Uston being on 60 minutes too. There was a case in Detroit where Greektown Casino banned 9 machine pros. The press picked up the story which created a PR problem for Greektown. Business dropped. They unbanned the players to get the business back. The Don Johnson story got a lot of press. There have been many stories of successful gamblers in the national press.

Michael Konik was the gambling writer for Cigar Afficianado Magazine. He has two books, The Man With The Hundred Thousand Dollar Breasts, and Telling Lies And Getting Paid, that have stories of successful gamblers in them. The two books are collections of his Cigar Afficianado articles.

[RS__]

Name the casino with the 150% loss rebate.

How much are you putting up?

EDIT: And it was actually more than 150%, in case this ever gets to fruition, so you can't claim some "that's not 150%, that's MORE than 150%, I'm right!!" BS like you normally do.

Axel: my son hit FIVE single line royals in less than 24 hours. One at the Gold Strike and four at Caesars. He's a member of this forum. I hope he reads this.

Is he the guy with the wonky username with many lower and uppercase characters, like fLiPnJaKc or something like that?

Anyway, was he playing the same denomination through out the day? Or was it like he hit the supposed 5 royals on 25c denom and lost the rest of it on $5 denom (or something like that) The 5 royals in a day is marginally believable.....but losing after those 5 royals is absolutely not believable, at least considering who's talking.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey when 60 Minutes interviews knowing gamblers it wasn't because they gave responses like I just saw from RS.

When I asked him to name the casino he asked how much I was going to put up. Meanwhile he also said he checked the casino's website to see if the offer was on again.

Does this make you laugh as much as I laughed?

RS is certainly one of the BSers here.

Axel also fails to come up with a name.

By the way, before I asked for the name of the casino offering a 150% loss rebate I did my own web search. I couldn't find one mention in more than five pages of Google search results of casino and gambling forum websites.

Sometimes when public events are this hard to find on the Internet it's because they never happened.

Prove me wrong. Give the name of the casino so I can call to verify this public event. I will start with the casino's marketing department. I'm sure they'd love to discuss that fantastic 150% loss rebate promotion they had.

[regnis]

1. I lost 21 consecutive hands of BJ at the Riviera many years ago. I had walked up to the table with one red chip, bought in for $100, and lost 21 straight. This was 35-40 years ago, but I will never forget. I also had a female dealer that was hot for me at the Riv and she was intentionally flashing cards and when peaking for BJ, she was signaling me. I was too much of a rookie to really take advantage of the flashing, but I did get to take advantage of her after her shift.

2. I went 11 years without a Royal at a time when I played pretty heavily. Now that I play randomly for an hour or 2 every month or so, I seem to constantly get royals.

Shit does happen.

[Alan Mendelson]

Name the casino with the 150% loss rebate.

How much are you putting up?

EDIT: And it was actually more than 150%, in case this ever gets to fruition, so you can't claim some "that's not 150%, that's MORE than 150%, I'm right!!" BS like you normally do.

Axel: my son hit FIVE single line royals in less than 24 hours. One at the Gold Strike and four at Caesars. He's a member of this forum. I hope he reads this.

Is he the guy with the wonky username with many lower and uppercase characters, like fLiPnJaKc or something like that?

Anyway, was he playing the same denomination through out the day? Or was it like he hit the supposed 5 royals on 25c denom and lost the rest of it on $5 denom (or something like that) The 5 royals in a day is marginally believable.....but losing after those 5 royals is absolutely not believable, at least considering who's talking.

As I wrote on WOV all the royals came on $1 games and after hitting he moved up to $5:and $10 VP and lost it. He started over -- hitting another $1 royal then losing it at higher denominations.

Yes he regretted what he did but he was going for the big win. That was his plan. In hindsight it didn't work.

Several times I've hit $5 royals and then lost most or all of it at higher denominations. I'm not going to deny it.

[RS__]

Mickey when 60 Minutes interviews knowing gamblers it wasn't because they gave responses like I just saw from RS.

When I asked him to name the casino he asked how much I was going to put up. Meanwhile he also said he checked the casino's website to see if the offer was on again.

Does this make you laugh as much as I laughed?

RS is certainly one of the BSers here.

Axel also fails to come up with a name.

By the way, before I asked for the name of the casino offering a 150% loss rebate I did my own web search. I couldn't find one mention in more than five pages of Google search results of casino and gambling forum websites.

Sometimes when public events are this hard to find on the Internet it's because they never happened.

Prove me wrong. Give the name of the casino so I can call to verify this public event. I will start with the casino's marketing department. I'm sure they'd love to discuss that fantastic 150% loss rebate promotion they had.

I'm glad to prove you wrong. Let me know how much you'd like to pay. From your perspective, this seems fairly simple -- a chance to prove all the APs wrong because we're claiming something happened even though it (supposedly) never happened. I hate basketball, but this sounds like a slam dunk for you.

As I wrote on WOV all the royals came on $1 games and after hitting he moved up to $5:and $10 VP and lost it. He started over -- hitting another $1 royal then losing it at higher denominations.

Yes he regretted what he did but he was going for the big win. That was his plan. In hindsight it didn't work.

Several times I've hit $5 royals and then lost most or all of it at higher denominations. I'm not going to deny it.

Gotcha, fair enough. I don't think I actually saw when you wrote what happened, other than the 5 royals + loss for the day. Going up in denom (causing the loss) is more believable. Had the timing been a bit better for him, he could'a walked out with $500K+, assuming he would have kept going up and hit a royal on $5 or $10, then another on $25, and one on $100.

[Alan Mendelson]

Again RS writes "let me know how much you'd like to pay."

RS I will pay you exactly what I think your information is worth: nothing.