There's that legendary mumbling he's known for again...drool on tickey.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
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There's that legendary mumbling he's known for again...drool on tickey.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Fuck off and die, worthless bitch.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThere's that legendary mumbling he's known for again...drool on tickey.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Reading these two-bit button pushing hustlers posts, triggers a scene from that movie Dumb and Dumber.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Why don't he bet 50K per hand? You have to be drunk on Capt. Morgan which we hear is your favorite pass time Axel. You just can't be this fucking stupid.
Stop whatever you're doing. You're making Mickey sound reasonable. You're ruining your image that took years to create.
Looks like MDawg is slowly hanging himself with his unwillingness or inability to prove he has a system or just gets lucky with his Martingale type system. Odds are we don’t get his next trip report, only excuses and more mumble jumble about “reading the cards”.
My only question is the hanging something he enjoys like Michael Hutchence did? And do Coach and Blackhole argue who gets his cock and who gets the balls?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
MDawg, does that mean you liked my sports betting idea? That's why they pay me the big money. Or ribs. Either one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
Speaking of low end, broke hustlers, I refuse to play poker for any real stakes online, so I've played some $3 tournaments. Pretty sad. For the time being, I am officially a "low end gambling hustler." I thought the players were terrible, but I'm down $12; what does that make me?
So can I still meet MDawg for ribs!?! Blackhole, I need ribs!!
The only thing it looks like is that a group of people (myself included) has nothing better to do at the moment, than post on an internet gambling forum.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
As far as MDawg's play, are you saying that it isn't scientific?
https://i.imgur.com/Iq6W6g6l.jpg
That must be what it looks like from the high school dropout perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
So you, Axel, tickey & tewlj probably see it that way.
Axel is pretty much the definition of two faced.
He is a snake, that's what he is. You turn your back on him, he'll stick it in. You don't trust a guy like that.
https://i.imgur.com/RG94d7k.jpg
MDawg is red again at WoV. This makes number 5 for you MDawg. You said you thought anyone that gets suspended 5 times should be nuked. BBB hasn't put the punishment up yet but its probably going to be substantial since your last suspension was 2 months. So I guess you are going to hammer your bullshit here at VCT. But you really are getting tiresome. If you've read one MDawg post you've read them all.
Que sera, sera.
As far as over here - may I pose a novel concept - you don't have to read it!
The Oz in red too. Probably Babs has had enough. Didn't see any ban worthy f bombs?
Love my reply to Babs. Hope it gets a dozen likes.
Axel is two faced? Axel is one of the most genuine people I’ve met over the years and would take the shirt off his back for a friend. I honestly don’t know what your game is Mdawg, I can’t figure out your motives. I’m just happy that WoV is free of you for the near future.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I agree with Mickey, didn’t you say someone with as many suspensions as you currently have should be nuked?
You and I haven’t agreed on many things over the years, but you nailed it here. I’ve said it before, Axel is one of the nicest, most trustworthy people I have ever met and has no reason to be to a stranger he met online.Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerGrinderAxel is two faced? Axel is one of the most genuine people I’ve met over the years and would take the shirt off his back for a friend. I honestly don’t know what your game is Mdawg, I can’t figure out your motives. I’m just happy that WoV is free of you for the near future.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I agree with Mickey, didn’t you say someone with as many suspensions as you currently have should be nuked?
Never asked for anything, helped me become a better gambler and is just a good guy to talk to about life and non gambling things.
You would be hard pressed to find someone who knows or has actually met him that would have a bad thing to say about him. And let’s face it, not many of us can say that about ourselves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
You want me to believe that Axel ISN'T a stoolie because POKERGRINDER said so? YOU bought that line, not me.
BTW PokerGrinder now has FIVE suspensions at WOV. And the difference between what he did and I did, is that with mine it was some kind of B.S. "pending" thing that they had to huddle over and think about whether it was suspension worthy at all. In PG's case what he posted was so bad that it had to be deleted, which has happened only to two WOV members in the history of WOV - PG and...you guessed it, BOZ! (Interestingly, the only other guy who came on here and backed up PokerGrinder as far as Axel's two facedness.) PG's comment was directed at me, Boz's comment was directed at the Wizard. Why they exploded like that and got themselves suspended, I don't know. I guess they just hit their boiling points. PokerGrinder has confessed that he suffers from mental illness - Boz, what is your excuse for losing it?
Anyway, last night I posted about how futures were red (which, at WOV, brought yet another stupid comment from mentally ill Darkov which led to his suspension (hmm...PokerGrinder and DarkOv are BOTH mentally ill I guess this explains their affinity), but that anything could happen by morning. Well, here we are, the stock market is, at least at the moment GREEN. I haven't done any trades yet, but my long terms are mostly up nicely, with pretty much just TSLA dragging me down some. AMZN especially is doing well for me.
Mickey, if you plan on being around any length of time, or even just for the sake of your heirs, as your attorney I advise you to consider some blue chip stock investments, NOW! Take your money out of that shoebox and PM me for direct stock tips. I've been in the stock market all my adult life and done quite well at it.
DarkOz and Axel are known nemesis always fighting for top gun AP hustler on the WOV site. Darkboy couldn’t make a post without Axel attacking him or vise-versa. Yet, DarkBoy made 60 posts in the Mdawg thread in 4 days and not a peep from Axel.
It was already worked out between the hustlers including BBB who was going to take the fall to rid MDawg. He was taking to much of the center stage hurting the alleged top gun hustlers images.
Agreed there is no question that BBB was behind this. Why she takes it so personally that MDawg's thread is allowed to proliferate, I couldn't say. And who stepped in to handle PokerGrinder's suspension? It wasn't BBB, it was Wizard himself, she didn't lift a finger.
When I think of Poker Grinder's suspension I think of the scene from Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas where Dr. Gonzo keeps ranting and raving about selling heroin to the people in the car next to him, and finally the mild manner mid-Western tourist loses it and starts frothing at the mouth. Funny thing is though, nothing I have ever said at WOV has ever been directed at PokerGrinder, if anything I've always been very polite to him and never insulted him in the slightest. So, again, why he LOST IT over something that had nothing to do with him, I couldn't say. I guess he just takes it upon himself to step in as the UNadmitted arbiter of what he thinks is and is not right?
PokeGrinder: You bastard! Pull over! I'll kill you, I'll kill you!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HTUVoN-dzk
I don't know if any of you remember gr8player on WoV. He started a thread about 7 years ago called Desperately Seeking Baccarat.MDawg, this guy gr8player is your daddy. Except he was much more polite than you. Here's the thread. It should make your day.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...48/#post291373
Though gr8player was very polite in the end Shack asked him to leave WoV.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info.../7/#post344087
Yes I have seen his posts, but I don't think he had anything specific to say. In the history of these gambling forums I don't think anyone has posted a trip report with as much online detail, pictures and backup evidence. I'm the real deal, whether you want to accept it or not. If you don't accept it, that says more about you, than it does about me.
Who cares about trip reports. I don't. They are borinnnnngggggg. What I don't like is the disservice you do to people not educated on the math. Fuck Coach, he's an idiot and I hope he runs right out and plays baccarat using your trend betting so he can see for himself.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
MDawg, you are not the first prophet who came along an entertained people.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgSome will say that streaks are all imaginary, that we see what we want to see, that there are no patterns in random events.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
But...the difference between Baccarat and dice, for example, is that IF there is a pattern set in that Baccarat shoe, it WILL come up and repeat because the cards are fixed, set, may not be changed, once placed in the shoe.
While with dice (or roulette), there is no set future pattern, as each roll of the dice is a truly independent event.
A subtle, but substantial difference.
I have heard of Bacc. players who have a general rule of "I bet whatever hand just won." Well for such a player, if he chances upon a shoe with a twenty-two bank or player run, and also has a general rule of pressing after each win, which many Bacc. players do in fact have these two rules, then every time he comes upon a shoe that has runs in it, he will make a lot, especially if he leaves right after the long run and doesn't keep playing that shoe.
However, these two rules of "always bet whatever just happened" and "press each time you just won" won't necessarily matter with events where the future is not fixed, like in dice rolls.
I mean yes, people will come back and say that over time no matter how much you make on runs things will even out over time and you'll give it back trying to bet on runs that never materialize. But, if you play the shoes with a discernible pattern hard and play lightly or simply get up and leave when presented with a random shoe, you might wind up ahead! including over time.
If you may imagine it, let's say that slot machine spins were not each truly independent, and some machines were set to pay off huge and nothing you could do would alter that pay off as long as you sat down and played at the machine. For me, a good baccarat shoe is like a slot machine that is set to pay. And, I am able to discern well before the shoe is over, whether this shoe is a pattern shoe that will pay off big, or a random shoe that will not. I sit down at the shoe and I bet according to pattern. If I am winning, that means this is a good shoe, and press my bet. If I keep losing, this is a random shoe and I leave it alone and reduce my bet or leave in search of another shoe.
If you don't believe that there is such a thing as a good shoe, where any decent player will win big, then you shouldn't play Baccarat.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...cent&FORM=VDRE
Well that's fine to say that you think that it's improbable, but that's different from saying that it is impossible. And anyway over at WOV the bottom line even from some of the math guys there was that it was nowhere near impossible that a guy could win 8 trips in a row Baccarat/BJ. If you figure 7% chance of coming out ahead on a million hands of Baccarat, how many hands could I have played in 8 trips?
In any case that twenty million to one "math" tossed out here was absurdly wrong.
I did not click on that link, gotta get back to the stock market and some work, but I assume it's just part of the story - while MDawg gave you the entire story, not just chips and cash and RFB, but also the markers and win statements.
What exactly have you had to say? Other than garbage about reading the cards and knowing what’s coming next.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
While I agree you shouldn’t mention if you are cheating or edge sorting, I don’t think you are.
Best bet is you got lucky chasing loses in a modified Marty a few times and like so many over the years believes it’s a winning system.
Whatever the reason it makes ZERO sense to come on and brag about it. It’s does nothing good for other than feeding your ego.
And can only cause you problems moving forward at the casinos you play at.
At least it’s a huge day for Amazon so far, even with idiots employees threatening to go on strike.
Yes AMZN is saving the day.
When you think about it why did it drop so much anyway? It sells online and as stores close wouldn't people have to turn to AMZN more and more?
Over all, it also just comes down to that you can't predict what will happen. Just when you think everything is going to shit buyers swoop in and take the market up.
By the way, as far as bitcoin, Mr. Two Faced, yes I have accumulated and hodled since about 2010. I have bitcoin that I acquired when it was worth about nothing. I have bitcoin that I acquired when it worth about $100. And at $200. The largest dollar wise value of the coins I received at once, as far as what the coins were worth at the moment I received them, were when it was at about ten grand, and that was BEFORE it hit 20,000. I received some when it was 12000 too. I still receive bitcoin to this day, a client just sent me some yesterday.
But all of the BTC I have (and all of the free BCH I received at the fork end of 2017) were received from clients for work done. I have never bought any. I never paid a penny for any of it. I have never sold any either.
I did think of selling some end of 2017, but at that time all of it was in a European online wallet that did not allow U.S. people to sell without taking certain steps that I remain unwilling to take. In the meantime though, I do have about ten BTC in a small coinbase wallet that I could sell. Starting about two years ago I think it was, I started receiving most or all the bitcoin only to my coinbase wallet and leaving the big wallet mostly alone except for the larger incoming transfers. Still, given that the whole thing is essentially a "free" roll, although yes I did trade my labor for it, I am in no hurry to sell any and I am just one of those with, looking from the outside anyway, at least one relatively dormant wallet. I do login to it every now and then to make sure it is all still there!
If you want me to do work for you I'll accept payment in bitcoin. Not too many of my clients pay in bitcoin, but those who do, I accept it. I don't care what the price is 4000 or 20000 I will accept it, and I will hodl.
I guess if I were to sit down and calculate minutely, some of the payments in BTC I have received from clients, the value of that bitcoin at this moment is less than what they were worth at that time. But over all, I am way WAY up versus how much cash I would have received over ten years versus the value of the coins now!
My target is 50,000 minimum. At that point, I'll have to figure out some way to sell.
I'm not the only person who accepts bitcoin for work done, and I know others who have done pretty much exactly what I did and just hodled too. Most of the big wallets out there they didn't pay for those coins with cash either.
BTW who knows why the stock market is up today. Maybe it has to do with that toilet paper is now available to pre-order and pickup with ease from supermarkets, and people are thinking shit, if toilet paper flow is back on, the economy must be on its way back too. :p I just checked it's now available, no problem. Those who HODLED toilet paper must be feeling pretty stupid right now.
I'm already out...camped outside the casino waiting for it to open.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Keeping my $50K cash bankroll in my cowboy boots like the ditz does.
That 7% chance on 1,000,000 hands is more like 0.0007%.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
With the insults you repeatedly hurled over at WoV it is you and only you who is responsible for your suspensions. I'll tell you what your worth is to them. There are members over there that have gotten five, six, seven 3-day suspensions in a row. You got 7 days on your first one, 14 on your 2nd and 3rd, 28 days on your 4th and 4 months on your 5th. That's how much they care about you. But you brought it all on yourself.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
7% is correct. Anyway, how would you know? I'm trying to be polite here but the guy who posted it is a math guy. Did you ever get past even algebra before you dropped out of high school? I wouldn't try to argue neuroscience with a brain surgeon I know my limits. Do you?
How do you make the connection between that quote of mine and what you posted underneath it? :confused:
While we are on the subject how/why did you end up getting banned? One way to look at it in my case is that they keep suspending me. Another way to look at it is that they know it's all chickenshit stuff that doesn't deserve a full ban. So what's worse, to get a few petty infractions or to just suddenly blow it so badly that they give you the boot all in one shot. I'd say that the reason I am still there is that they know I add value and that at the end of the day I'm not some foul mouthed guy who went on a rampage repeatedly.
In any case, both of us know that other than wanting to be someplace because we cannot be there, there's no real reason to want to be there while they are being so nit picky: it's currently a PITA to post over there. You have to walk on eggshells. That's not fun.
tickey is here to be nasty, you being polite only enrages him more.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
He got banned from WOV for threatening the mods, he just hasn't gotten around to threatening you yet.
Don't take it personally...when he tells you to die, that's really him wishing himself dead.
:D
I guess you wouldn't know it but gambling math is my forte. It's all based in Algebra under a doctrine called Combinations and Permutations. I've never studied baccarat math in depth but my guess is the failure rate of winning a hand is somewhere just above 50%. Multiplying the failure rate against itself 1 million times then subtracting the product from 1 will give the chance of being ahead after that many hands.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Your best chance to get ahead is to play just one hand. Every hand you add to it diminishes your chances of getting ahead. So that after 1 million hands you are somewhere between slim and none of being ahead. Pretty much a mathematical certaintty that you will be behind. That's the compound effect of negative expectation gambling.
I got banned for bitching people out when I was drunk. At the time I held the record for most suspensions without being nuked. They did everything they could to keep me there because they considered me valuable when I was sober. One moderator was even erasing my drunk posts. But I wouldn't quit with the drunk posts. I always took full responsibility for my suspensions, not blaming anyone but myself.
BTW, I haven't had a drink in over 3 years now. I'm in my 37th month.
Coach Smelly is still pushing fake news. I wasn't banned for threatening the mods.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellytickey is here to be nasty, you being polite only enrages him more.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
He got banned from WOV for threatening the mods, he just hasn't gotten around to threatening you yet.
Don't take it personally...when he tells you to die, that's really him wishing himself dead.
Kudos for being sober. That's a good thing.
I don't know how exactly it was calculated. But you might be looking at the wrong side of the equation. In any case, the guy first posted that it was a 2% chance for a million rolls of dice to wind up ahead, then someone else pointed out that he was wrong on an order of magnitude, and the first guy then recalculated it at 5%, and days have gone by and no one has challenged that figure. He also posted how the house edge in Baccarat is lower than craps, so it must be more like 7% for the million hands of Baccarat. These figures are based on what percent COULD be ahead after a million hands, not would. I didn't play 1M hands obviously in just 8 trips, but I am that could.
The other thing that people keep bantering about is my statement of that quitting while ahead is the ONLY way to win. That is such an obviously true statement that I think it eludes people what it means. Instead, they get bent out of shape extrapolating statistics. Try quitting while behind every session see how far that gets you.
Back then, when I was playing really big, the way I wound up over all ahead is that I kept my money at risk pretty consistent at $20,000. I had one trip where I got them for just a tiny bit under a half million, and more than a few trips when I won over a $100,000. I had a few trips where I won around $60,000. The rest of the trips I'd either win around twenty or lose the full twenty, these were mixed, and more or less cancelled out. They just never managed to get their win money back from me, and when I quit because I had too many opportunities in real life I needed to pursue and couldn't keep spending so much time in Vegas/Tahoe, I was very much ahead. I also didn't really like the stress of the high average bet action, another reason I gave it up. I did miss it for about a year, but after a year had passed by I really didn't think about much, if at all. And we kept going to Vegas and Tahoe but I never gambled a penny until 2018, when I started up again.
Back then too, the value of the comps alone was probably a couple hundred grand a year. But, it was my entourage of friends and my gfs who enjoyed most of that, I just cared about winning. Back then I was on a plane to Vegas or Tahoe every other week, or just stayed there for a month and a half and didn't come back. :o
A lot of my friends were amazed that I could have kept going to Vegas after I quit and not gambled, but I am very disciplined and once I make my mind up about something I follow it. Same goes for how I play today. Very disciplined.
This past couple years I haven't had the huge wins but I haven't had any losses yet either.
I like to write about my past. Even if no one ever read a word, it still is fun to relive by writing.
September 5th, 2014 at 1:31:24 AMQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I have to hand it to you, Smelly. You are the only troll on this forum willing to spend hours everyday going thru the archives looking for gotchas. In this case however, you are wrong again. The date of that post is 5 Sep 2014. I wasn't banned until March 2015. So the post you put up did not get me banned.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellySeptember 5th, 2014 at 1:31:24 AMQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Coach, I get it.
Anyway, over at WOV as far as the MDawg detractors: you've got a few frightened little rats like Michael99000 who are just plain jealous, then you have ones like Soopoo that may not be bad guys but are so far removed from the world of anyone betting big at a casino that the whole thing seems alien to them so they shake their heads in disbelief and just write it off as fiction, and then you have some mathematicians who sit at home and never gamble anyway so they comment from their armchairs about what the real gamblers are doing. Did I leave anyone out? Yes you've got ones like Axel and DarkOz that don't want to admit that anyone could be winning at the casinos besides them. In all, a motley crew.
I mean like DarkOv's comments on markers and he's never had a credit line in his life, and probably didn't know what a marker was before he read my thread. The guy was homeless - all homeless are mentally ill. Do you really think Axel has ever had a casino credit line in his life either? or has played table games at the level I have? So how can he comment on that world other than through what he has heard or thinks might be true.
Not one of these detractors has ever actually lived it the way I have but each one thinks he is qualified to comment.
Every one of them knows that what I post is true, but for whatever reason, some people have to keep up the game of denial.
Don't know if there's any hotshot members here who file as professional gamblers. But if there is, I'd be too busy cranking the numbers thru multiple passes until I got it to where I liked it. If I were still filing as a pro player, I'd make sure I got a nice sweet piece of that gigantic stimulus pie that's gonna be going around shortly. Pro gamblers by definition rely on casinos for their chief source of income. Since they've had to close down, each week means "lost income" and because you're really a business with less than 500 people, there's a nice fat check awaiting those who are creative enuf to take maximum advantage of the windfall. You can bet Bob Dancer has already prepared his proposal.
It took me one minute to find it, the suspension list has a direct link to the post...which absolutely and obviously contributed to your banning.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
So yes, you got banned for threatening the mods just like I said, and you denied.
You can't keep up with your own bullshit. You back yourself into a corner again, start mumbling nonsense again, and pretend that your lies are truth.
Drool on, tickey.
For the record MDawg you’re not the only heavy hitter to browse these forums. I personally could relate to your type of play and 5-star casino treatment. I’ve had my share of winning streaks over the years and had access to markers that might even dwarf (verb) your own.
I had a ball and overall lost more than most people on these sites could make in a lifetime. If my health allowed me, I’d still be donating on a regular basis. I own a home on the east coast and one in Nevada. My wife and I haven’t had much use of it lately except for the tax benefit, but the children and their families get a kick out of it. I may have shared a past gambling experience or two on this forum. But I quickly realized if you hint that you have money, you’re not welcome on these forums unless they think they could take advantage of you like any other hustler would view people with money. They can’t stomach people having money and fun gambling.
I didn’t even know there were gambling forums till just a few years ago when I started spending lots more time on computers.
My point is I think you shoved having money up the asses of these hustlers is getting played out. All the broken-down shoe 2-bit alleged AP hustlers showed their faces and their jealousy. It was great entertainment while it lasted over at the WOV and here. I myself enjoyed getting to tickle these hustlers nerves thanks to you.
It’s all about the hustle and hunting down fish (via pm’s) You don’t fit in and never will.
I don't have any problem with someone coming in and saying that he was a bigger player than me. Even when I was playing big a decade or so ago, there were still bigger players around me every day at the tables. And in the scheme of things, amongst Vegas whales, I am at best, a mini-whale.
But where I take offense is when someone who knows nothing about any of it comes in with the "couldn't have happened" nonsense. That stems from just plain jealousy, as you point out. Everyone knows that anything might happen when someone is jumping the bet around, including losing it all, and the tiny house edge doesn't always have everything to do with it during the finite number of hands a player throws down, even in his lifetime.
Just for the record, I've meet and spend a few sessions with real Whales, and I couldn't even shin their shoes.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I've gotten to know many players with million dollar lines, and played with players who brought more than a million to the table. Some big Baccarat players like to play in the back all alone, and others prefer to play on the regular tables. A good friend of mine has (or rather had, he finally had to move out mid-March when they closed shop) spent most of the past two years at Wynn/Encore in a suite, gambling every single day.
All players want to win and nobody likes to lose, but some are there more for the show than others. For example the fat guy I mentioned above, the one who would crumple up the Baccarat cards and throw them at the dealer when he lost, all the while cursing in another language - this guy was much more into the show than the rest of us at the table, with his stupid aftermarket diamond encrusted Rolex and his stacks of yellow chips. At one point when he was playing I noticed this other player at the far end of the table, an Asian guy, wearing nothing but a cheap plastic band watch and the typically understated (shabby) clothes most of these older Asian men wear, quietly betting significant amounts and doing quite well, much better than the fat guy.
I pointed at the Asian guy and declared, "He's trying to win more than _______!"
_______ turned and looked at the Asian guy in disbelief, as if he were seeing him for the first time, and shouted, "No one wins more than ______!"
Another time, and this was years ago, this guy from a certain country who must've had at least a five million line was betting $160,000. a hand against a run, and this other guy from the same country at the other end of the Grand Baccarat table was putting down a lousy single black chip every bet, against him. It was all about ego and testosterone as the rich guy dumped about two million right in front me because he wanted to prove that he was right and he refused to switch to the other side.
I lost out too while all that was happening, because I didn't want to seem like the dick who was betting against him too, but eventually I jumped in and put something, not nearly enough, on the right side, and at least caught about half of the run.
You see, such an event is clear as day while it is happening but try to explain it to a non-believer who has never played Baccarat and he will just say that there was no streak it was all imaginary. Imaginary, my ass, tell that to the guy who lost two million. And that's the point. When you tell such a story, the point of the story is simply...the point of the story. These bozos turn it all into a statement about how to bet the game of Baccarat. I'm just relating what happened, but they get all bent out of shape trying to add unneeded commentary to try to explicate a factual event that needs no explanation. These armchair quarterbacks are the same guys who would freeze up at the blackjack table while winning hand after winning hand passes them by, and they sit rigid, thinking that they should bet more, but unable to do so out of fear that the streak will end when they press the bet.
And of course now someone who has never lived it may come in with some comment about how, "It doesn't work that way, the way it works is ______."
The people on these sites think those stories only happen in James Bond movies.
As long as their concentrating on pressing slot machine buttons (casinos major source of income) and hustling for a living they will never experience that type of life.
One of the typical detractors, tableplay...the guy who came up with and clung to the 20 million to 1 figure, admitted to spending significant time in casinos splitting quarters evenly between him and his partners after their plays.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
Not talking green chips here, but quarters...3 cents for me, 2 cents for you, and you get the extra penny after our next big edge play.
You're an idiot, Smelly. Wash you damn vagina. It's stinking up the place. I wasn't banned for threats but you can continue to make that shit up if you want to. your whole world would fall apart if one of your delusions turns out to be not true. Keep sniffing the posies, swine.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyIt took me one minute to find it, the suspension list has a direct link to the post...which absolutely and obviously contributed to your banning.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
So yes, you got banned for threatening the mods just like I said, and you denied.
You can't keep up with your own bullshit. You back yourself into a corner again, start mumbling nonsense again, and pretend that your lies are truth.
Drool on, tickey.
Delusions of grandeur. Do you have fits with those spells?Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Delusions of grandeur from a bonified mental midget.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
Get your shine box, bonehead.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackholeJust for the record, I've meet and spend a few sessions with real Whales, and I couldn't even shin their shoes.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
All streaks are in the past, assclown. You have no clue what is going to happen in the rest of the shoe. You're just guessing. Because you are a professional guesser.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
You can have the life of a loser all you want. Dont' expect me to join in, loser.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
So the chance of winning exactly 500 decisions (as Player) in 1000 decisions is 2.287% - this comes directly from the website https://www.betfirm.com/baccarat-win-expectations/. Using exactly the same methodology as the author on this website, there is a 31.76% chance of coming out ahead (501 or more wins) in 1000 decisions. Now extending this exact same methodology to 1,000,000 hands, Excel can't even show the extremely small probability of coming out ahead (500,001 hands or more in 1,000,000 decisions), and just shows 0%. Mind you, it is greater than 0%, but virtually so. The screenshot below details these calculations along with the author's substantiation via the same methodology.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
There MickeyCrimm goes with the profanity and silly nonsense about things he knows nothing about. Reminds me how in elementary school I brought a fillet mignon to some class event at the park to barbecue, and my buddy confessed that he had never even tasted anything like that and wanted to try it. And today, MickeyCrimm's commentary on high stakes casino gambling is about as absurd as if my friend had instead started going on and on how great such steaks are when he'd never even tried or seen such a thing in his life.
What's really funny, is that MickeyCrimm goes on and on about how no one cares about the Adventures of MDawg, but ALL HE DOES is post in my thread. He's obsessed with me. It's actually not funny anymore Mickey, you're becoming more like a bad taste that needs to be spit out. If you're so star struck by me please try at least not so much to show it - your obsequiousness is starting to get nauseating.
TablePlay if I play ten hands of Baccarat and I play three or four at two hundred each, two or three at five hundred, one or two at a thousand, and one at five thousand, not any sort of Martingale, just not necessarily in that order, how many do I need to win, in order to wind up ahead?
Now what if I win the first hand for 5000, and I have nine hands to play?
What if I win the first hand for 1000, and I have nine hands to play?
And so on.
If you can answer each of these scenarios with just plain straight statistics, then I'll gather that you are not a math major and instead just someone copy/pasting something that has little relevance, because the answer requires more sophisticated math than what you are displaying.
P.S. Why is your username tableplay? Do you actually play tables, or just machines/slots?
Nope, no one with any sense cares about your "adventures." It's a waste of time to read. You're just a troll and run of the mill at that. Your story doesn't interest me in the least. What does interest me is the great harm, disservice, damage you bring to the gambling forums. I'm talking about people new to gambling, or trying to learn strategic gambling, who could be influenced by your false narrative of it being easy to beat negative games. In short, you are full of shit. Troll on, assclown. But someone here is going to respond to your bullshit narrative.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I never spend time thinking about and commenting on things I don't care about! I guess you must be different. ;)
Keep 'em coming Mickey! You're showing an obsession with MDawg. I seem to keep you up at night trying to think of what to say in response to posts of mine that haven't even been written yet, admit it!
My username has nothing to do with tables - it comes from my enjoyment of playing pinball tables. I was a BJ counter in the early 90's. Since I was bad at camouflage (and took heat) I switched to machines (starting out with full pay VP and then adding vulturables) and have no regrets (also some online shit). I guess you are disputing the author of the website if you are also disputing me. I came up with the same result as the author using methodology that the author does not show on his or her website (I am assuming he/she used that same methodology) and then also used it for the million hand case. I may answer your other questions above in another post.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Complete nonsense...tickey's imaginary friends, another sign of his mental illness.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Go back to bed and play with GI Joe dolls, make them do to each other the things that you, Boz and Keystone love to write about.
Each bet you make has a negative expectation no matter what the size of it is. You keep talking like the big bets always win. They have just as much chance of losing as they do of winning. What happens if you lose all of your 5K bets?Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I've got you on the ropes, nimrod. Your bullshit don't work here. Troll on, loser.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
And don't forget to lick MDawgs ass after you suck his dick. You actually have to think, something you can't do, to be an advantage gambler. You never seen a negative bet you didn't like, sucker.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyComplete nonsense...tickey's imaginary friends, another sign of his mental illness.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Go back to bed and play with GI Joe dolls, make them do to each other the things that you, Boz and Keystone love to write about.
I may write about it for humors sake. You actually live it out following these dudes aroundQuote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyComplete nonsense...tickey's imaginary friends, another sign of his mental illness.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Go back to bed and play with GI Joe dolls, make them do to each other the things that you, Boz and Keystone love to write about.
Why don't you go start a thread called, The Small Time, Minimum Wage Antics of Mickey Crimm? I promise not to comment in it that sort of low end play I truly know nothing about. :cool: You'll have the thread all to yourself.
But if you get lonely, you could share the thread with Axel, and add a subtitle, The Day I Asked a High Roller to Bankroll Me on his Own Play.
THANK YOU BOZ AND POKERGRINDER for your kind words! SooPoo as well, I don't know if he lurks.
You guys have interacted with many people from the forums in person for years. Both of you guys have been stand up guys who I know to be trustworthy.
None of the guys making claims know anything first hand. They themselves are unknown to anyone IRL. It's all just nonsense bits and pieces they they scavenge from forum from other people who for the most part are also unknown to anyone IRL.
No doubt I have my flaws, but certainly not what they desire to have everyone to believe.
Here is an excerpt of all 512 possible situations (assuming order is not important) where you would end up ahead using the betting amounts you listed (a '1' is a win and a '-1' is a loss) for ten bets. Note that the $5000 bet must win and you have a 49.3% chance of making a $5000 bet that wins. Vbulletin will not let me post the full table of results (it has a character limit) that is why I am only showing an excerpt.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 1700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 5700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 1700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 5700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 6700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 1700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 5700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 6700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 4700
Anyone with half a brain knows that very well about you. Such as never once in your life have you ever played a single hand of Baccarat with an edge. How does it feel to have so much self vanity locked up in your brain that you do not even realize that there are other people walking the earth? You are like a walking time bomb ready to explode, a menace to society, the most dangerous kind at that, one who truly believes with blind recognition. You may impress most all the dreamers, but you will never impress the people that you really want to.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I hate to shatter your ego Botox
https://i.imgur.com/27yeBY0m.jpg
but no one cares what you think, you're not relevant, not in my thread. Step aside, and let MDawg keep posting his Adventures, as they happen.
Judging from that all you do is complain about what others have done, you don't have much of a story to tell, but if you do - create your own thread. If it is interesting I would be happy to read it!
You can't crunch it that way TablePlay. Try some probability calculus, for starters. Nor have you figured in any variance. Just drop it, hire someone to crunch it for you.
Wow, what a joke of a statement. I have a table of every possible outcome on those bets. Every single possibility - I brute-forced an SQL query so that every combination is considered. Every known 10 bet result is in the table. If every possibility is accounted for, there is no variance. How amazingly absurd of you:Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
You can't get the answer linearly. You haven't even set it up right to even begin to get the right answer! Go back to pinball.
Anyway, if you're just here to keep reporting that ridiculous twenty million to one figure, you don't even have to show me any figures, that result alone is indicative of that you can't even set up the problem.
Answer me this - forget about house edge, assume no house edge, over the short term: does a player have a higher probability of winning if he varies the bet, versus if he flat bets?
Next assume a tiny house edge, same question. Different answer?
Finally answer the above two same questions, again over the short term, answering about whether a player has a higher probability of losing (if he varies the bet).
If you do not win your $5000 bet, you are an overall loser of the ten hands - it does not matter if you win the other 9 bets because their total is less than $5000. You have a 49.3% chance of winning that $5000 bet. Only a fool would not consider the house edge over any term. You gave me a designated value for all ten bets, now you are trying to move the goal posts with other bet values for the 10 hands. In any event, it does not matter how you structure the value of your 10 bets, each one has a 49.3% of winning, thus the answer to your question is that the player does not have a higher chance of winning if he varies his bets.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Take any sequence X1,X2,X3,X4,X5,X6,X7,X8,X9,X10 - regardless of their values they still must be multiplied by the constant .493.
And see, now it becomes painfully obvious that you have no idea what any of this means.
The correct answer for all of those scenarios is not a yes or no, but IT DEPENDS ON THE VARIANCE. This is short term, remember? Variance in terms of gambling means situations where you end up winning more (or less, but for purposes of this one moment let's assume more) hands than would be statistically expected. So are you still going to tell me that if you end up in a situation, where for WHATEVER reason, you end up winning 10 out of 12 hands, that you are going to still just win the same amount if you flat bet a 100, versus you bet different amounts, each bet more than just 100?
By the way, the above four questions had nothing to do with the sets of bets I defined before. The above four questions were just asking, in general, flat betting versus varying your bet.
Anyway, I won't get into the advanced part of this, as to what that means on a Baccarat table for a player like me.