The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[MDawg]

I don't know how exactly it was calculated. But you might be looking at the wrong side of the equation. In any case, the guy first posted that it was a 2% chance for a million rolls of dice to wind up ahead, then someone else pointed out that he was wrong on an order of magnitude, and the first guy then recalculated it at 5%, and days have gone by and no one has challenged that figure. He also posted how the house edge in Baccarat is lower than craps, so it must be more like 7% for the million hands of Baccarat. These figures are based on what percent COULD be ahead after a million hands, not would. I didn't play 1M hands obviously in just 8 trips, but I am that could.

The other thing that people keep bantering about is my statement of that quitting while ahead is the ONLY way to win. That is such an obviously true statement that I think it eludes people what it means. Instead, they get bent out of shape extrapolating statistics. Try quitting while behind every session see how far that gets you.

[MDawg]

Back then, when I was playing really big, the way I wound up over all ahead is that I kept my money at risk pretty consistent at $20,000. I had one trip where I got them for just a tiny bit under a half million, and more than a few trips when I won over a $100,000. I had a few trips where I won around $60,000. The rest of the trips I'd either win around twenty or lose the full twenty, these were mixed, and more or less cancelled out. They just never managed to get their win money back from me, and when I quit because I had too many opportunities in real life I needed to pursue and couldn't keep spending so much time in Vegas/Tahoe, I was very much ahead. I also didn't really like the stress of the high average bet action, another reason I gave it up. I did miss it for about a year, but after a year had passed by I really didn't think about much, if at all. And we kept going to Vegas and Tahoe but I never gambled a penny until 2018, when I started up again.

Back then too, the value of the comps alone was probably a couple hundred grand a year. But, it was my entourage of friends and my gfs who enjoyed most of that, I just cared about winning. Back then I was on a plane to Vegas or Tahoe every other week, or just stayed there for a month and a half and didn't come back.

A lot of my friends were amazed that I could have kept going to Vegas after I quit and not gambled, but I am very disciplined and once I make my mind up about something I follow it. Same goes for how I play today. Very disciplined.

This past couple years I haven't had the huge wins but I haven't had any losses yet either.

I like to write about my past. Even if no one ever read a word, it still is fun to relive by writing.

[coach belly]

I wasn't banned for threatening the mods.

September 5th, 2014 at 1:31:24 AM

This is about as weak as it gets. Mike, you light weight son of a bitch. How bout I put my boot in your ass. Thats what will happen if we ever meet face to face. I'll put a boot in your ass, dude. You asshole, don't ever show weakness like that in my presence. Put your foul mood on somebody else. If you ever attempt to put your foul mood on me again I will kick your ass on Main Street at High Noon.

[mickeycrimm]

I wasn't banned for threatening the mods.

September 5th, 2014 at 1:31:24 AM

This is about as weak as it gets. Mike, you light weight son of a bitch. How bout I put my boot in your ass. Thats what will happen if we ever meet face to face. I'll put a boot in your ass, dude. You asshole, don't ever show weakness like that in my presence. Put your foul mood on somebody else. If you ever attempt to put your foul mood on me again I will kick your ass on Main Street at High Noon.

I have to hand it to you, Smelly. You are the only troll on this forum willing to spend hours everyday going thru the archives looking for gotchas. In this case however, you are wrong again. The date of that post is 5 Sep 2014. I wasn't banned until March 2015. So the post you put up did not get me banned.

[MDawg]

Coach, I get it.

Anyway, over at WOV as far as the MDawg detractors: you've got a few frightened little rats like Michael99000 who are just plain jealous, then you have ones like Soopoo that may not be bad guys but are so far removed from the world of anyone betting big at a casino that the whole thing seems alien to them so they shake their heads in disbelief and just write it off as fiction, and then you have some mathematicians who sit at home and never gamble anyway so they comment from their armchairs about what the real gamblers are doing. Did I leave anyone out? Yes you've got ones like Axel and DarkOz that don't want to admit that anyone could be winning at the casinos besides them. In all, a motley crew.

I mean like DarkOv's comments on markers and he's never had a credit line in his life, and probably didn't know what a marker was before he read my thread. The guy was homeless - all homeless are mentally ill. Do you really think Axel has ever had a casino credit line in his life either? or has played table games at the level I have? So how can he comment on that world other than through what he has heard or thinks might be true.

Not one of these detractors has ever actually lived it the way I have but each one thinks he is qualified to comment.

Every one of them knows that what I post is true, but for whatever reason, some people have to keep up the game of denial.

[Rob.Singer]

Don't know if there's any hotshot members here who file as professional gamblers. But if there is, I'd be too busy cranking the numbers thru multiple passes until I got it to where I liked it. If I were still filing as a pro player, I'd make sure I got a nice sweet piece of that gigantic stimulus pie that's gonna be going around shortly. Pro gamblers by definition rely on casinos for their chief source of income. Since they've had to close down, each week means "lost income" and because you're really a business with less than 500 people, there's a nice fat check awaiting those who are creative enuf to take maximum advantage of the windfall. You can bet Bob Dancer has already prepared his proposal.

[coach belly]

willing to spend hours everyday going thru the archives looking for gotchas.

It took me one minute to find it, the suspension list has a direct link to the post...which absolutely and obviously contributed to your banning.

So yes, you got banned for threatening the mods just like I said, and you denied.

You can't keep up with your own bullshit. You back yourself into a corner again, start mumbling nonsense again, and pretend that your lies are truth.

Drool on, tickey.

[blackhole]

For the record MDawg you’re not the only heavy hitter to browse these forums. I personally could relate to your type of play and 5-star casino treatment. I’ve had my share of winning streaks over the years and had access to markers that might even dwarf (verb) your own.

I had a ball and overall lost more than most people on these sites could make in a lifetime. If my health allowed me, I’d still be donating on a regular basis. I own a home on the east coast and one in Nevada. My wife and I haven’t had much use of it lately except for the tax benefit, but the children and their families get a kick out of it. I may have shared a past gambling experience or two on this forum. But I quickly realized if you hint that you have money, you’re not welcome on these forums unless they think they could take advantage of you like any other hustler would view people with money. They can’t stomach people having money and fun gambling.

I didn’t even know there were gambling forums till just a few years ago when I started spending lots more time on computers.

My point is I think you shoved having money up the asses of these hustlers is getting played out. All the broken-down shoe 2-bit alleged AP hustlers showed their faces and their jealousy. It was great entertainment while it lasted over at the WOV and here. I myself enjoyed getting to tickle these hustlers nerves thanks to you.

It’s all about the hustle and hunting down fish (via pm’s) You don’t fit in and never will.

[MDawg]

I don't have any problem with someone coming in and saying that he was a bigger player than me. Even when I was playing big a decade or so ago, there were still bigger players around me every day at the tables. And in the scheme of things, amongst Vegas whales, I am at best, a mini-whale.

But where I take offense is when someone who knows nothing about any of it comes in with the "couldn't have happened" nonsense. That stems from just plain jealousy, as you point out. Everyone knows that anything might happen when someone is jumping the bet around, including losing it all, and the tiny house edge doesn't always have everything to do with it during the finite number of hands a player throws down, even in his lifetime.

[blackhole]

amongst Vegas whales, I am at best, a mini-whale.

Just for the record, I've meet and spend a few sessions with real Whales, and I couldn't even shin their shoes.

[MDawg]

I've gotten to know many players with million dollar lines, and played with players who brought more than a million to the table. Some big Baccarat players like to play in the back all alone, and others prefer to play on the regular tables. A good friend of mine has (or rather had, he finally had to move out mid-March when they closed shop) spent most of the past two years at Wynn/Encore in a suite, gambling every single day.

All players want to win and nobody likes to lose, but some are there more for the show than others. For example the fat guy I mentioned above, the one who would crumple up the Baccarat cards and throw them at the dealer when he lost, all the while cursing in another language - this guy was much more into the show than the rest of us at the table, with his stupid aftermarket diamond encrusted Rolex and his stacks of yellow chips. At one point when he was playing I noticed this other player at the far end of the table, an Asian guy, wearing nothing but a cheap plastic band watch and the typically understated (shabby) clothes most of these older Asian men wear, quietly betting significant amounts and doing quite well, much better than the fat guy.

I pointed at the Asian guy and declared, "He's trying to win more than _______!"

_______ turned and looked at the Asian guy in disbelief, as if he were seeing him for the first time, and shouted, "No one wins more than ______!"

Another time, and this was years ago, this guy from a certain country who must've had at least a five million line was betting $160,000. a hand against a run, and this other guy from the same country at the other end of the Grand Baccarat table was putting down a lousy single black chip every bet, against him. It was all about ego and testosterone as the rich guy dumped about two million right in front me because he wanted to prove that he was right and he refused to switch to the other side.

I lost out too while all that was happening, because I didn't want to seem like the dick who was betting against him too, but eventually I jumped in and put something, not nearly enough, on the right side, and at least caught about half of the run.

You see, such an event is clear as day while it is happening but try to explain it to a non-believer who has never played Baccarat and he will just say that there was no streak it was all imaginary. Imaginary, my ass, tell that to the guy who lost two million. And that's the point. When you tell such a story, the point of the story is simply...the point of the story. These bozos turn it all into a statement about how to bet the game of Baccarat. I'm just relating what happened, but they get all bent out of shape trying to add unneeded commentary to try to explicate a factual event that needs no explanation. These armchair quarterbacks are the same guys who would freeze up at the blackjack table while winning hand after winning hand passes them by, and they sit rigid, thinking that they should bet more, but unable to do so out of fear that the streak will end when they press the bet.

And of course now someone who has never lived it may come in with some comment about how, "It doesn't work that way, the way it works is ______."

[blackhole]

The people on these sites think those stories only happen in James Bond movies.

As long as their concentrating on pressing slot machine buttons (casinos major source of income) and hustling for a living they will never experience that type of life.

[coach belly]

As long as their concentrating on pressing slot machine buttons (casinos major source of income) and hustling for a living they will never experience that type of life.

One of the typical detractors, tableplay...the guy who came up with and clung to the 20 million to 1 figure, admitted to spending significant time in casinos splitting quarters evenly between him and his partners after their plays.

Not talking green chips here, but quarters...3 cents for me, 2 cents for you, and you get the extra penny after our next big edge play.

[mickeycrimm]

willing to spend hours everyday going thru the archives looking for gotchas.

It took me one minute to find it, the suspension list has a direct link to the post...which absolutely and obviously contributed to your banning.

So yes, you got banned for threatening the mods just like I said, and you denied.

You can't keep up with your own bullshit. You back yourself into a corner again, start mumbling nonsense again, and pretend that your lies are truth.

Drool on, tickey.

You're an idiot, Smelly. Wash you damn vagina. It's stinking up the place. I wasn't banned for threats but you can continue to make that shit up if you want to. your whole world would fall apart if one of your delusions turns out to be not true. Keep sniffing the posies, swine.

[mickeycrimm]

Coach, I get it.

Anyway, over at WOV as far as the MDawg detractors: you've got a few frightened little rats like Michael99000 who are just plain jealous, then you have ones like Soopoo that may not be bad guys but are so far removed from the world of anyone betting big at a casino that the whole thing seems alien to them so they shake their heads in disbelief and just write it off as fiction, and then you have some mathematicians who sit at home and never gamble anyway so they comment from their armchairs about what the real gamblers are doing. Did I leave anyone out? Yes you've got ones like Axel and DarkOz that don't want to admit that anyone could be winning at the casinos besides them. In all, a motley crew.

I mean like DarkOv's comments on markers and he's never had a credit line in his life, and probably didn't know what a marker was before he read my thread. The guy was homeless - all homeless are mentally ill. Do you really think Axel has ever had a casino credit line in his life either? or has played table games at the level I have? So how can he comment on that world other than through what he has heard or thinks might be true.

Not one of these detractors has ever actually lived it the way I have but each one thinks he is qualified to comment.

Every one of them knows that what I post is true, but for whatever reason, some people have to keep up the game of denial.

Delusions of grandeur. Do you have fits with those spells?

[mickeycrimm]

For the record MDawg you’re not the only heavy hitter to browse these forums. I personally could relate to your type of play and 5-star casino treatment. I’ve had my share of winning streaks over the years and had access to markers that might even dwarf (verb) your own.

I had a ball and overall lost more than most people on these sites could make in a lifetime. If my health allowed me, I’d still be donating on a regular basis. I own a home on the east coast and one in Nevada. My wife and I haven’t had much use of it lately except for the tax benefit, but the children and their families get a kick out of it. I may have shared a past gambling experience or two on this forum. But I quickly realized if you hint that you have money, you’re not welcome on these forums unless they think they could take advantage of you like any other hustler would view people with money. They can’t stomach people having money and fun gambling.

I didn’t even know there were gambling forums till just a few years ago when I started spending lots more time on computers.

My point is I think you shoved having money up the asses of these hustlers is getting played out. All the broken-down shoe 2-bit alleged AP hustlers showed their faces and their jealousy. It was great entertainment while it lasted over at the WOV and here. I myself enjoyed getting to tickle these hustlers nerves thanks to you.

It’s all about the hustle and hunting down fish (via pm’s) You don’t fit in and never will.

Delusions of grandeur from a bonified mental midget.

[mickeycrimm]

amongst Vegas whales, I am at best, a mini-whale.

Just for the record, I've meet and spend a few sessions with real Whales, and I couldn't even shin their shoes.

Get your shine box, bonehead.

[mickeycrimm]

I've gotten to know many players with million dollar lines, and played with players who brought more than a million to the table. Some big Baccarat players like to play in the back all alone, and others prefer to play on the regular tables. A good friend of mine has (or rather had, he finally had to move out mid-March when they closed shop) spent most of the past two years at Wynn/Encore in a suite, gambling every single day.

All players want to win and nobody likes to lose, but some are there more for the show than others. For example the fat guy I mentioned above, the one who would crumple up the Baccarat cards and throw them at the dealer when he lost, all the while cursing in another language - this guy was much more into the show than the rest of us at the table, with his stupid aftermarket diamond encrusted Rolex and his stacks of yellow chips. At one point when he was playing I noticed this other player at the far end of the table, an Asian guy, wearing nothing but a cheap plastic band watch and the typically understated (shabby) clothes most of these older Asian men wear, quietly betting significant amounts and doing quite well, much better than the fat guy.

I pointed at the Asian guy and declared, "He's trying to win more than _______!"

_______ turned and looked at the Asian guy in disbelief, as if he were seeing him for the first time, and shouted, "No one wins more than ______!"

Another time, and this was years ago, this guy from a certain country who must've had at least a five million line was betting $160,000. a hand against a run, and this other guy from the same country at the other end of the Grand Baccarat table was putting down a lousy single black chip every bet, against him. It was all about ego and testosterone as the rich guy dumped about two million right in front me because he wanted to prove that he was right and he refused to switch to the other side.

I lost out too while all that was happening, because I didn't want to seem like the dick who was betting against him too, but eventually I jumped in and put something, not nearly enough, on the right side, and at least caught about half of the run.

You see, such an event is clear as day while it is happening but try to explain it to a non-believer who has never played Baccarat and he will just say that there was no streak it was all imaginary. Imaginary, my ass, tell that to the guy who lost two million. And that's the point. When you tell such a story, the point of the story is simply...the point of the story. These bozos turn it all into a statement about how to bet the game of Baccarat. I'm just relating what happened, but they get all bent out of shape trying to add unneeded commentary to try to explicate a factual event that needs no explanation. These armchair quarterbacks are the same guys who would freeze up at the blackjack table while winning hand after winning hand passes them by, and they sit rigid, thinking that they should bet more, but unable to do so out of fear that the streak will end when they press the bet.

And of course now someone who has never lived it may come in with some comment about how, "It doesn't work that way, the way it works is ______."

All streaks are in the past, assclown. You have no clue what is going to happen in the rest of the shoe. You're just guessing. Because you are a professional guesser.

[mickeycrimm]

The people on these sites think those stories only happen in James Bond movies.

As long as their concentrating on pressing slot machine buttons (casinos major source of income) and hustling for a living they will never experience that type of life.

You can have the life of a loser all you want. Dont' expect me to join in, loser.

[tableplay]

I don't know how exactly it was calculated. But you might be looking at the wrong side of the equation. In any case, the guy first posted that it was a 2% chance for a million rolls of dice to wind up ahead, then someone else pointed out that he was wrong on an order of magnitude, and the first guy then recalculated it at 5%, and days have gone by and no one has challenged that figure. He also posted how the house edge in Baccarat is lower than craps, so it must be more like 7% for the million hands of Baccarat.

So the chance of winning exactly 500 decisions (as Player) in 1000 decisions is 2.287% - this comes directly from the website https://www.betfirm.com/baccarat-win-expectations/. Using exactly the same methodology as the author on this website, there is a 31.76% chance of coming out ahead (501 or more wins) in 1000 decisions. Now extending this exact same methodology to 1,000,000 hands, Excel can't even show the extremely small probability of coming out ahead (500,001 hands or more in 1,000,000 decisions), and just shows 0%. Mind you, it is greater than 0%, but virtually so. The screenshot below details these calculations along with the author's substantiation via the same methodology.