This is right out of the Billy Walters book. Had to screenshot it to post it up:Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
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This is right out of the Billy Walters book. Had to screenshot it to post it up:Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
---> Anonymous does not forgive.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
https://anagram-solver.net/%20Why%20...s?partial=true
Interesting in the sense that Bill's last two posts were about that very question along with mention of Anonymous.
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll=1#post77796
In specific, I guess, to watch people try to get something for nothing.
At first, it was fun to try the impossible gambling systems math, but, later, to watch the AP crap spiral out of control. I mean, the Wizard's only note of the Burning Man baloney was a "stomach bug" from using porta-potties no longer maintained, and, later, a bus ride out.
Now, Crimm pretending to give a shit about Walters. A profound waste of time.
Thanks MC. It's always good when someone accuses you of not knowing something and they state supposed facts when you know those facts are not correct. I'm not an expert on sports betting, gambling law's or guys like Billy Walter's. But sometimes you know what you know.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmThis is right out of the Billy Walters book. Had to screenshot it to post it up:Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Added another 3k to the method above. Unfortunately, I have a hedge bet on tonight's game. I got -6 on KC and it went off at -4. I really want KC to cover. As part of the method I have more on the Lions but still rather KC win.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Tough game. Did you check with redietz before making these bets?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfAdded another 3k to the method above. Unfortunately, I have a hedge bet on tonight's game. I got -6 on KC and it went off at -4. I really want KC to cover. As part of the method I have more on the Lions but still rather KC win.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I bet both sides on tonight's game(hedge bet) I wanted KC because that would've drained my online account while casing in at a B&M casino, I had a slight chance to break even on one side and win the other side. This would've eliminated Wager requirements and made me eligible for more bonus money ASAP(100% on 1k+ plus a $500-1k free bet with a 10x roll.) I actually had more bet on the Dog since it falls under the above system. I didn't check with Red because no handicapping necessary. I have a fair amount of faith in the historical data presented to me and the logic behind it. If it's just an anomaly in the data with no real logic behind it... no harm no foul, since I have built in value using the bonuses. Since I won my bets online, Ill just roll that money into the above-mentioned strategy. Click bet, click bet, click bet.....FFS outo piolet clicking and I bet 2 favorites. Pain in the ass to get them to cancel bets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerTough game. Did you check with redietz before making these bets?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfAdded another 3k to the method above. Unfortunately, I have a hedge bet on tonight's game. I got -6 on KC and it went off at -4. I really want KC to cover. As part of the method I have more on the Lions but still rather KC win.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I had Detroit moneyline. But I waited to bet them until I could confirm Kelce would be out.
Barely made it.
Everyone should know that the DraftKings promotion I wrote about seems to have returned:
https://wizardofodds.com/online-gamb...-nfl-promotion
Basically, this promotion states that if your MoneyLine team leads by 10+, at any point, your bet pays whether or not they win the game.
Last year, I did a study fully analyzing the previous five NFL seasons as if this could be bet every single game.
I haven't (and probably won't) do the same for last year's season, but the cliff notes from five years of data were that ALL UNDERDOGS would result in $78,501.71 in total profits over all five years and an expected profit of 24.23% of all monies bet. 2017 was the worst year both for return +$10,177.63 and profit percentage, 15.9%.
Favorites were also slightly profitable, but only showed gains to the tune of 1.65% over the five years and actually lost money anyway, in 2017.
This promotion was offered for two or three weeks last year. It is possible to lose on this promotion as this changes the result (over the five years sampled) only 5.32% of the time for favorites (who suck anyway) and 7.95% of the time for underdogs.
For example, if you picked 15 games this way, all underdogs, then you are only expected to see 1.1925 losses change to wins. As a result, it isn't anything near out of the question to go one or a few weeks in a row without this happening at all. Still, the EV is unquestionably good.
(Druff, don't get upset, but I'm copying this verbatim and finding an applicable PFA thread; there's no reason to paraphrase it, imo.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I am officially tied for last in TopBet's NFL Picks no-spread contest after last night. Northbet, however, changed to a scaled system where you get more points for taking moneyline underdogs to win outright, so I did. Therefore I am now tied for first. LOL. Last and first.
I didn't bet the game. Invested $50 in fantasy. Had Bell on my roster because Kelce was out. Made a grand total of $10 profit. I did not have Montgomery. You had to have both Montgomery and Bell to have a shot at real money. Did not take a genius to do that, so I messed up. Taking a backup tight end to score was a no-brainer with Kelce out, but taking the second of the backup tight ends required a little thought.
I have avoided TopBet because last time I looked into them they allowed crypto deposits but not cashouts.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I am officially tied for last in TopBet's NFL Picks no-spread contest after last night. Northbet, however, changed to a scaled system where you get more points for taking moneyline underdogs to win outright, so I did. Therefore I am now tied for first. LOL. Last and first.
I didn't bet the game. Invested $50 in fantasy. Had Bell on my roster because Kelce was out. Made a grand total of $10 profit. I did not have Montgomery. You had to have both Montgomery and Bell to have a shot at real money. Did not take a genius to do that, so I messed up. Taking a backup tight end to score was a no-brainer with Kelce out, but taking the second of the backup tight ends required a little thought.
"Can I withdraw through Bitcoin?
We are looking into supporting full Bitcoin payout functionality in the near future."
I don't know if that's changed since but it's still on their website. I find it odd they accept Crypto but don't pay out in Crypto. How do you yourself get your funds in and out? Obviously, there's the old-fashioned way with checks and wire transfers but I prefer Crypto. They seem to have a 150% up to 2500
I didn't bet this game but my pick was Detroit ATS. Made the most sense. New KC receivers, Lions were hot the 2nd half of last year and they got noticeably better with the draft, Goff is closing in on the record for consecutive passes w/o an int., Kelce absent, and all the pressure was on the Chiefs as Champs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
What lost the game was Toney's KEY drops. Mahomes was much better than his stats indicated. But he now realizes that great QB's need to go the extra mile to highly motivate the other guys to step up when the #1 receiver is out. He inexplicably failed to do that, regardless of how much time he had.
I'm stunned. Stunned, I tell you! Stunned that redietz made such a bigtime blunder."Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
So, Mr. "I know it all and you know nothing." How are you going to spin, er, explain the difference between your statement above and Billy Walters statement below?
That's why I said "most." You seem to think that Mr. Walters was the only person employing runners in Las Vegas. Guess again. Do you really think that Mr. Walters invented "running?" Sorry, dude.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmI'm stunned. Stunned, I tell you! Stunned that redietz made such a bigtime blunder."Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
So, Mr. "I know it all and you know nothing." How are you going to spin, er, explain the difference between your statement above and Billy Walters statement below?
I'm sure Mr. Walters employed every angle and opportunity at his disposal. Me personally, I've been a proprietor, a partner, head of a corporation, a professional gambler, whatever filing saved the most money.
The point of Mr. Walters' writing that in the book (and of course I have the book right here) was to sort of brag that he did things differently than the other gamblers employing runners. He was bragging on his inventiveness and business savvy.
There have always been "runners," mickey. Mr. Walters didn't invent them.
Mickey, demonstrating the usual "AP" expertise and historical knowledge.
LOL Ditz, your dog ain't hunting. You're in the no spin zone. Mr. "I got more routes than United Airlines." You made an ass clown of yourself. You should have read the book before you made up the bullshit. Please, don't bore me with the deflections. You're embarrassing yourself. Are you always an idiot or just when I'm around?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzThat's why I said "most." You seem to think that Mr. Walters was the only person employing runners in Las Vegas. Guess again. Do you really think that Mr. Walters invented "running?" Sorry, dude.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmI'm stunned. Stunned, I tell you! Stunned that redietz made such a bigtime blunder."Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
So, Mr. "I know it all and you know nothing." How are you going to spin, er, explain the difference between your statement above and Billy Walters statement below?
I'm sure Mr. Walters employed every angle and opportunity at his disposal. Me personally, I've been a proprietor, a partner, head of a corporation, a professional gambler, whatever filing saved the most money.
The point of Mr. Walters' writing that in the book (and of course I have the book right here) was to sort of brag that he did things differently than the other gamblers employing runners. He was bragging on his inventiveness and business savvy.
There have always been "runners," mickey. Mr. Walters didn't invent them.
Mickey, demonstrating the usual "AP" expertise and historical knowledge.
Why do you think MC believes BW invented running? I highly doubt he believed that to be the case. I heard about runners long before I ever heard of Billy Walters. I can assume most people had never heard of Walters in the 90's. I'm sure MC has known about runners before knowing of BW.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzThat's why I said "most." You seem to think that Mr. Walters was the only person employing runners in Las Vegas. Guess again. Do you really think that Mr. Walters invented "running?" Sorry, dude.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmI'm stunned. Stunned, I tell you! Stunned that redietz made such a bigtime blunder."Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
So, Mr. "I know it all and you know nothing." How are you going to spin, er, explain the difference between your statement above and Billy Walters statement below?
I'm sure Mr. Walters employed every angle and opportunity at his disposal. Me personally, I've been a proprietor, a partner, head of a corporation, a professional gambler, whatever filing saved the most money.
The point of Mr. Walters' writing that in the book (and of course I have the book right here) was to sort of brag that he did things differently than the other gamblers employing runners. He was bragging on his inventiveness and business savvy.
There have always been "runners," mickey. Mr. Walters didn't invent them.
Mickey, demonstrating the usual "AP" expertise and historical knowledge.
It's stupid to say I thought Walters invented runners. Ditz is just deflecting with bullshit. I knew about runners long before I knew about Billy Walters. It was 2011 I first heard about Walters when he appeared on 60 minutes. I had read The Smart Money which was about Walters but Konik gave no clue as to his identity. Redietz is just deflecting with irrelevant bullshit because he got caught not knowing the real story but acting like he knew all about it. He said the LLC's only been around for 10 years. Walters states in the book that he was doing it in 1997. That's like 27 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfWhy do you think MC believes BW invented running? I highly doubt he believed that to be the case. I heard about runners long before I ever heard of Billy Walters. I can assume most people had never heard of Walters in the 90's. I'm sure MC has known about runners before knowing of BW.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzThat's why I said "most." You seem to think that Mr. Walters was the only person employing runners in Las Vegas. Guess again. Do you really think that Mr. Walters invented "running?" Sorry, dude.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I'm sure Mr. Walters employed every angle and opportunity at his disposal. Me personally, I've been a proprietor, a partner, head of a corporation, a professional gambler, whatever filing saved the most money.
The point of Mr. Walters' writing that in the book (and of course I have the book right here) was to sort of brag that he did things differently than the other gamblers employing runners. He was bragging on his inventiveness and business savvy.
There have always been "runners," mickey. Mr. Walters didn't invent them.
Mickey, demonstrating the usual "AP" expertise and historical knowledge.
It is idiotic. As if runners are some concept that takes savvy. Layers of stupid.
Yeah, there was a little chatter about him here and there in the early 2000s but it wasn't too much and the scale wasn't realized by most.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIt's stupid to say I thought Walters invented runners. Ditz is just deflecting with bullshit. I knew about runners long before I knew about Billy Walters. It was 2011 I first heard about Walters when he appeared on 60 minutes. I had read The Smart Money which was about Walters but Konik gave no clue as to his identity. Redietz is just deflecting with irrelevant bullshit because he got caught not knowing the real story but acting like he knew all about it. He said the LLC's only been around for 10 years. Walters states in the book that he was doing it in 1997. That's like 27 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfWhy do you think MC believes BW invented running? I highly doubt he believed that to be the case. I heard about runners long before I ever heard of Billy Walters. I can assume most people had never heard of Walters in the 90's. I'm sure MC has known about runners before knowing of BW.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
it's hard to relate to the situation because almost no one else has a chance to do those types of things on that scale. I kind of like to live in the reality of what's possible for average to above-average AP, not the top .1%
I also prefer the FEDs not going after me and going to prison and having to be pardoned.
Where's mcap? This thread and a good many others have nothing to do with Vegas, or with anyone who resides or claims to reside in Vegas. :D
questions about bonus grinding.
With my questions I am assuming that straight betting without bonuses does not have the EV to make it worth it without being the next level of serious. So I am going to narrow my questions to bonus rolling over via offshore sites.
Maybe Axel can reply to this. He seems to be our expert resident pro sports-bettor.
1) Is SBR still the place to go to find out if books operate honestly?
2) Do bonuses mostly appear during football season? (Is bonus grinding a thing year around for a person moderately motivated)
3) How often are people limited on offshore books? Is the concept of cover plays (or whatever they're called) a thing?
My rant on limting .. vv
IMO it seems it is either limiting or making lines really sharp as there is no in between. What these goofball bettors on twitter seem to believe is that books shouldn't be allowed to limit. Which is very self-serving and doesn't really answer how books would not just lose to too many beards. If books could enforce one person per bettor then sure no lmiting seems reasonable but that isn't happening.
If Redietz wants to give his feedback it would be welcome. Maybe we can figure out the EV of sports-picking tournaments vs bonus grinding.
No offense to Redietz but I'm really not interested in handicapping because I'm not a sports nerd. I just glaze over when presented with analysis/opinions. It is like any sort of nerdom. If you're not into that world then it is just boring as fuck.
1) Interesting you asked, I had been using them on and off them for years. I attempted to get information on a few newer sports books I was interested in over the last year or so.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
My answer is... NO!!, Not really, they "sold out". From my understanding, they are now only dealing with government-regulated sports books as an "affiliate" site. I suspect they sold out to a company that promotes the Big Boys like Draft Kings. They used to help solve payment issues with offshore books, but not anymore. There's now strict moderation. Long-time posters have been censored and banned. It's like Trip Advisor... if you say anything negative about a destination the don't like it and ir allow it. Not sure exactly how strict SBR is. You can see some older information on offshore books, but It doesn't seem to be search-friendly.
2)Football season seems to bring out bigger, better, and more frequent offers, but it is actually a year-round gig. I get calls 2 times a week with bonus offers. Emails daylily. I don't even have accounts at all the solid places.
3) I have only ever been banned from a few regulated books. I really don't know how often the offshore joints ban sharp bettors. I know a few guys who do well using sharp bets, bonuses, and boosts who consistently make money, however, I assume they have so many accounts going and B&B casino available that offsetting and hedging +EV opportunities come up that give the appearance of donkey betting.
Some places will slow down your bonus eligibility for a while if you're winning and cashing out. They may ask you to deposit equivalent to your last cash out and only anything above that is eligible for a bonus. Wait a while and eventually, they disregard that. I also have a few tricks up my sleeves to get them to wave that. There's a good chance I might get tagged this season since I ramped up.
My max bet has been 3k (I have to get authorized for anything over 1k) They adjusted the line first as well, but I didn't care, I needed the bet. I try not to let my accounts get too high if possible, I'll give up some vig in an attempt to avoid that, but you can't control it perfectly.
4) I'm certainly no sports betting odds or math expert. I quickly look at something and see its value and potential, I figure out how one can best exploit the situation I can see the bigger potential and big picture. I know what needs to be done, and how to do it. I haven't any doubt there are guys that have it figured out fairly well but I bet they are missing some of the potential.
However, I'm not very good at finding value bets, and I'm not good at knowing stuff like... x number of legs on a parlay will get you closest to your EV if you have -150 or + this or that, therefore you will achieve exactly 75% of the free bet value. Intuitively I know this stuff and have a good educated guess. knowing that stuff is important, and knowing you don't know something... IS the most important because, I know what I need to know and figure out, and who knows what the fuck they are doing.
There are a few people I have met on the forums who know all the odds, math, stats, and value bets like some Rainman-like ability shit. I'm absolutely amazed at what and how often and quickly they find incredible value bets on crazy complicated stuff. Holy fuck, that's free money!!
Me, I'm thinking... but if you just add in XYZ, it's worth so much more.
In closing, Red is so very wrong about the huge potential of pure +EV sports value betting(not even bonus whoring) and this isn't based on what I think I see firsthand, I have been involved. And I only know a few of the people doing it and making a good living. There's no doubt some unknown big boys crushing it.
I am but a barracouta in an ocean filled with great white sharks.
Our mutual late friend Rick Radner was very good at value betting. I sat in a car with him from LV to Phx. as he chatted almost non-stop about that subject along with the math surrounding how & why he was making specific bets, for nearly 4 hours. Interesting as hell and it made the trip race by, but you have to be a certain level of dedicated to really understand that stuff and make a bundle of money from it.
I myself--a very limited sports bettor--have made good money just with the bonus money offers from the BetMGM's, DraftKings, etc. the past few years, and I barely know what I'm doing. For those who make a living with stuff like this, I can see the high potential.
I could go on for 2 hours about Richard Radner AKA Jai-Alai. I'm responsible for him staying in Las Vegas and learning Machine AP. One of my first big mistakes in advantage play. Heck, I was still working at the time and only Advantage Playing after and before work when I met him. Richard Radner was one of the smartest idiots I ever knew. Greedy, but giving. Honest at times, dishonest at times, loyal at times, disloyal at times, Crazy at times normal at times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
A Very interesting guy who you hated to like, but you couldn't help yourself. I distanced any AP business with him for the most part(Many people didn't, and some got screwed hard)but I couldn't hate the guy and I had multiple reasons that I should have.
I haven't had time to see how the... first 2 weeks take the points system, has panned out so far. Regardless, I'm thinking about next week's bets, In my experience the lines generally move against the favorites due to the public's love for them therefore it's best to bet the dogs as late as possible. Again, In general. Would anyone disagree?
If SBR is not a thing anymore has a replacement come into existence? It was a neat site but it would take labor to keep going and doing what they did. There should be ok $$ in the affiliate marketing but I wouldn't know. What a shame. Such a useful AND needed site.
9-6 so far with one game remaining. The Sunday night game was a real beauty. Giants +3.5, which was not only a play by this first two weeks underdog system, but also a play by the home team +3.5 system I am using, so it was a double play for me. Giants lost 40-0 :D, But Druff's picks are 3-0 so far, so that helps.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Probably, but I haven't looked. I do my own research using multiple different sources I don't have a go-to place for sports sites.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Thanks. I didn't see Dan's 2 other picks.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ9-6 so far with one game remaining. The Sunday night game was a real beauty. Giants +3.5, which was not only a play by this first two weeks underdog system, but also a play by the home team +3.5 system I am using, so it was a double play for me. Giants lost 40-0 :D, But Druff's picks are 3-0 so far, so that helps.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Another angle you may want to consider if you are just looking to churn through a lot of plays to get through the bonus play-through requirement is betting unders on college football right now. There has been a lot of chatter on a couple forums about the new rules (running clock), which supposedly results in 5-6 fewer plays and should translate to lower scores. Redietz posted that for week 1 the overs and under were almost evenly split among all college games. But I have refined my plays down to only games that consist of two teams from power conferences. I didn't want to have top teams playing some shit team from a lesser conference that ran up a score of 70-14.
So by refining it to 2 power conference teams, I went 11-8 last week and 14-8 this week betting the unders. This weeks results were very likely skewed a bit in my favor by rainy weather all up and down the east coast. I think this angle may be good for another week or two until lines are adjusted down further to compensate for the fewer number of plays each game. Wouldn't surprise me if the books don't over-compensate and there could be a couple good weeks betting over. But it would probably be pretty hard to pin-point just exactly when that over-compendsation occurs. So for now, I am just going to play another week of unders, maybe 2 weeks.
So you might want to look into that.
I don't think I ever met Radner. What did he die from?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI could go on for 2 hours about Richard Radner AKA Jai-Alai. I'm responsible for him staying in Las Vegas and learning Machine AP. One of my first big mistakes in advantage play. Heck, I was still working at the time and only Advantage Playing after and before work when I met him. Richard Radner was one of the smartest idiots I ever knew. Greedy, but giving. Honest at times, dishonest at times, loyal at times, disloyal at times, Crazy at times normal at times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
A Very interesting guy who you hated to like, but you couldn't help yourself. I distanced any AP business with him for the most part(Many people didn't, and some got screwed hard)but I couldn't hate the guy and I had multiple reasons that I should have.
3-0 on NFL guys, including a +175 ML win on Thursday.
I just wish I didn't back away from my Green Bay pick. Was a hair away from posting it and betting, then got cold feet and backed off.
Dan, do you realize how nutty also that sounds?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
And, say, "RICHARD RADNER Richard Radner 68 of Las Vegas passed away on November 22 after a short illness. He was a larger-than-life figure in professional gambling starting in his 20's when he was known as Mr. Jai-Alai in Connecticut. Over the years he had excelled at video poker, seven card stud and had an uncanny ability to handicap sporting events with great results. Rick possessed a brilliant mathematical mind and will be remembered by all his friends and family. He was the son of the late Sidney and Helen Radner of Holyoke, MA and leaves his brother Bill and wife Lisa of West Springfield MA."
No wonder that we're left with you, AW, and Singer. Ha.
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"Double P.S.S." I wonder what they'll write about Mickey, if anything. Pro craps player, Regnis, to write something about old Red? Holy fuck, what a bunch.
Are you ever going to explain the method to your madness? Give us something. I WANT TO BELIEVE!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Also, you you mind telling us what your unit size is? No Karen don't answer, Im talking about his betting unit size.
Yeah, Dan, tell us. AW's about to pee/poop his trousers ... unless it's more Burning Manboy diarrhea, in which case both, at the same time.
How do you post pictures up here?
https://tinypic.host/image/10-out-of-10.kKPi6 10 out of 10
IF the Jets can pull this off I will have won 11 out of 11Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
And they did.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfIF the Jets can pull this off I will have won 11 out of 11Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Shoot for 18 in a row. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
C'mon, man.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You should know by now.
click on the image box, then either type the URL or import it from your browser.
Another anomaly, someone who claims to know something or other about casinos, but has a very poor memory and almost no tech skills.
Those guys are fucking moles. Ha.
I don't think I have posted any pictures here if I have its been very few and I don't remember. It rejects any attempts to use links, attachments, or insert photos. It's not important to me, so I stopped messaging with it. Perhaps my files are too large or something. I asked in case I was missing something simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVC'mon, man.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You should know by now.
click on the image box, then either type the URL or import it from your browser.
1. Move the pic to documents on your computer.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
2. When you finish the text in your post click on GO ADVANCED.
3. Then scroll all the way down and click on MANAGE ATTACHMENTS
4. Then click on BROWSE
5. Click on the document you want to upload.
6. Then click on UPLOAD over on the right.
7. Once you see the document is uploaded click on CLOSE THIS WINDOW.
8. Then click on SUBMIT REPLY
Your document will then appear in your post.
I have to size my documents no bigger than MEDIUM to post them here. If the size is LARGE it will refuse to upload it.
Way easier way. Just click on the little picture frame in the top of the text box (the one next to the picture of film), click on From Computer (even if on phone), and then click on Choose Files, then pick the picture. Then click on Upload Files.
That's it!
Anyway...
Won the MNF under tonight.
Now 4-0 start for me in NFL 2023-24, up +4.49 units.
That also makes me 58-32-2, +30.38 units in my 92 picks since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. (Note it's always 1 unit flat bet every game.)
I continue to make all the right moves in NFL somehow.
I always have to use a resizer first. This site has a very low size allotment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Maybe I'll kick it up. It's a setting I chose.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPenI always have to use a resizer first. This site has a very low size allotment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
None of my iphone videos will upload here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffMaybe I'll kick it up. It's a setting I chose.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPenI always have to use a resizer first. This site has a very low size allotment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
OK, I found it. I just have to click on INSERT IMAGE above the text box. Thanks. I'll try it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I'm highly surprised at that.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmI don't think I ever met Radner. What did he die from?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI could go on for 2 hours about Richard Radner AKA Jai-Alai. I'm responsible for him staying in Las Vegas and learning Machine AP. One of my first big mistakes in advantage play. Heck, I was still working at the time and only Advantage Playing after and before work when I met him. Richard Radner was one of the smartest idiots I ever knew. Greedy, but giving. Honest at times, dishonest at times, loyal at times, disloyal at times, Crazy at times normal at times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
A Very interesting guy who you hated to like, but you couldn't help yourself. I distanced any AP business with him for the most part(Many people didn't, and some got screwed hard)but I couldn't hate the guy and I had multiple reasons that I should have.
I am not sure, exactly. He checked into the hospital not feeling well and didn't check out. I heard reports he just wasn't right when people talked to him in the casinos. IE didn't remember who people were that he should've looked terrible etc.
It wouldn't work. It won't upload when I click on upload files.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmOK, I found it. I just have to click on INSERT IMAGE above the text box. Thanks. I'll try it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
See if it works on this kj photo....
Is in-game betting considered a reasonable hedge for traditional betting ?
Example: You place a moneyline bet for an NFL game. Your team is losing as the first half approaches the end, so you place an in-game moneyline bet for the other team prior to the start of the 2nd half such that the amount wagered for the in-game bet offsets the loss on the traditional pre-game bet if your team should lose. I'm thinking this could be a tool for avoiding a large loss by taking a smaller loss via the in-game insurance hedge.
HEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
True, but I am going to hell anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetHEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayTrue, but I am going to hell anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetHEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
If you are I’ve heard that hand baskets are the best way to travel there.
Hand baskets are not very common these days though so I wonder if anyone is planning a better mode of getting there for these modern times?
Maybe in a 0 emissions EV or a gender neutral bicycle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monetHEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
My girlfriend, who was in charge of a high stakes sports betting LV cartel, says "Hedging is for wienies!"
I hedge a lot. The older I get, the more I've hedged. It's a sign of weakness, old age, and paranoia. Sometimes, as in UMass at halftime yesterday, I hedge because I am literally going blind watching the ugliness and stupidity of a game and cannot stomach the fact that I have the team I have. I wasted half a bet on a hedge yesterday because watching Eastern Mich/UMass was mind numbing. The solution, of course, is don't watch the unwatchable.
Yeah, or those electric scooters people zip around on.Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBen
And, brute force is the God, in terms of a theory of everything, which is the flip side of finesse as gain by small wins/losses, in terms of optimization (by randomization).Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
As evidenced by your numerals, today ...
monet
monet is offline
Diamond
Join Date
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Posts
7,091 ------------------> 7,091 = {7000 + [3^2 * antilog(0^0)] + 1} ---> 731, or 137, and, 7,091 = 1013*7 ---> 1/137, or 1/731.
225 = 15^2 ---> 152 ---> 1/153
You haven't yet realized that as soon as you claim "my girlfriend" (:)), "my friend", "my cousin" etc. etc. etc. "used to be", "currently is", or "knows the person in charge there" etc. etc. etc......it's seen as complete bullshit??Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by monetHEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
My girlfriend, who was in charge of a high stakes sports betting LV cartel, says "Hedging is for wienies!"
I hedge a lot. The older I get, the more I've hedged. It's a sign of weakness, old age, and paranoia. Sometimes, as in UMass at halftime yesterday, I hedge because I am literally going blind watching the ugliness and stupidity of a game and cannot stomach the fact that I have the team I have. I wasted half a bet on a hedge yesterday because watching Eastern Mich/UMass was mind numbing. The solution, of course, is don't watch the unwatchable.
You and kew were made for each other. Right down to the loafers without socks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerYou haven't yet realized that as soon as you claim "my girlfriend" (:)), "my friend", "my cousin" etc. etc. etc. "used to be", "currently is", or "knows the person in charge there" etc. etc. etc......it's seen as complete bullshit??Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by monet
My girlfriend, who was in charge of a high stakes sports betting LV cartel, says "Hedging is for wienies!"
I hedge a lot. The older I get, the more I've hedged. It's a sign of weakness, old age, and paranoia. Sometimes, as in UMass at halftime yesterday, I hedge because I am literally going blind watching the ugliness and stupidity of a game and cannot stomach the fact that I have the team I have. I wasted half a bet on a hedge yesterday because watching Eastern Mich/UMass was mind numbing. The solution, of course, is don't watch the unwatchable.
You and kew were made for each other. Right down to the loafers without socks.
LOL. Right.
If you find any photos of me not wearing socks, I'll buy you a Newell. I always wear socks. It's from viewing Gentlemen's Gazette videos.
If you could actually disprove anything I've said, it would be a first.
It's funny you look askance about someone running a high stakes sports betting cartel in LV. The cartel was composed of a certain family of your folks.
Which rub and tug was she working in.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerYou haven't yet realized that as soon as you claim "my girlfriend" (:)), "my friend", "my cousin" etc. etc. etc. "used to be", "currently is", or "knows the person in charge there" etc. etc. etc......it's seen as complete bullshit??Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You and kew were made for each other. Right down to the loafers without socks.
LOL. Right.
If you find any photos of me not wearing socks, I'll buy you a Newell. I always wear socks. It's from viewing Gentlemen's Gazette videos.
If you could actually disprove anything I've said, it would be a first.
It's funny you look askance about someone running a high stakes sports betting cartel in LV. The cartel was composed of a certain family of your folks.
That was over the line and inappropriate, mickey crimm. I must formally withdraw that posted offer to fly you to the book club meeting here, and I must formally demand that you apologize.
If you don't apologize, I will stop participating here immediately. You need to learn some respect for people who have accomplished more than you gambling and who have earned their expertise. And I'm not talking about me.
Is that a legit promise, or a tewlj promise?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Which would you say is more over the line?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Insulting someone that you don't even know exists?
Or threatening to kill another member of the forum?
Don't let the door hit you where the dog should have bit you.
Two worthy responses here from tableplay and DGenBen.Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBenQuote:
Originally Posted by tableplayTrue, but I am going to hell anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
If you are I’ve heard that hand baskets are the best way to travel there.
Hand baskets are not very common these days though so I wonder if anyone is planning a better mode of getting there for these modern times?
Maybe in a 0 emissions EV or a gender neutral bicycle.
Well Done, Fellas.
My dad used the hell in a handbasket saying all the time.
Good Memories.
I am a firm believer in making the bets and going to sleep right before game time.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by monetHEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
My girlfriend, who was in charge of a high stakes sports betting LV cartel, says "Hedging is for wienies!"
I hedge a lot. The older I get, the more I've hedged. It's a sign of weakness, old age, and paranoia. Sometimes, as in UMass at halftime yesterday, I hedge because I am literally going blind watching the ugliness and stupidity of a game and cannot stomach the fact that I have the team I have. I wasted half a bet on a hedge yesterday because watching Eastern Mich/UMass was mind numbing. The solution, of course, is don't watch the unwatchable.
Sometimes I watch as you all know because I will share my experience with you live and in person.
But the go to sleep right before game time is by far the best strategy.
Make sure you sleep through the entire game.
And never hedge.
Middling is ok, that's different.
Inside Information is where the real money is at.
Or crazy promotions which are harder to come by these days.
And yours, of course. Ha.
---> Hatemonger: Stephen Miller, Donald Trump, and the White Nationalist Agenda.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
https://anagram-solver.net/Two%20wor....?partial=true
Basket case, Trump, gearing up for another bout of lunacy.
Gottlob1 Gottlob1 is offline
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Jul 2023
Posts
228 ----------------> 228 = 114*(1 + 1) ---> 114_411
I'd imagine that in-game betting makes this method more common than it used to be before in-game betting was offered (for example a conventional pre-game bet w/ spread, followed by an appropriately sized in-game bet with different spread for the other team).Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Serious question: Has anyone who’s said they are not going to participate in this forum anymore ever actually stopped participating?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
No AFAIK but Tasha put in a very respectable four months or something like that.Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBenSerious question: Has anyone who’s said they are not going to participate in this forum anymore ever actually stopped participating?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Lots of minor members silently split, without per se saying so, say, after calling the place a urinal or whatever.
I recall that Slingshot, a regular, spoke, on the end, of a gardening forum where people treated each other in a proper way. His tenth last post was https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...829#post126829 . His last post, two and a half months later, was https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...865#post129865 .
And, of course, LarryS, who wrote that the police advised him to stop posting, given that LarryS thought that persons online did damage to his car.
As for Tasha, she held out until Dan gestured that he would reinstall her full posting rights.
P.S. Regardless, it's my final forum, ever! Ha. I gradually began to see the pointlessness of even the professional forums. Not really proving anything.
This is a great analogy about modern America. No one wants to stick around to clean the goddam urinal anymore. They have no pride.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gottlob1
Cowards.
Two interesting outcomes to football games over the weekend that I was involved in. One I benefited from and won, one I lost.
1). Western Michigan +28 vs Iowa. Iowa led 34-10when they got the ball back with 1 minute left. I was expecting and certainly hoping they would take a knee for 2 plays as 99.9% of teams would have done. Instead they threw 3 straight passes to score a touchdown with 33 seconds remaining and cover. I lost.
2). La Rams +7.5 vs 49ers. 49ers kicked a field goal to go up 10 with 2 minutes left. Rams got the ball back with 1.56 remaining, needing a field goal and touch down to win the game, but either score would win my bet. Most teams needing 2 scores like this will drive the field as quickly as possible and if they haven't scored a TD, will kick the field goal with 40 seconds or so left, giving themselves time to recover an onsides kick and throw a couple hail Mary's to try to tie the game.
The Rams drove the field using up the entire clock. They got to the 15 yard line with 4 seconds remaining. With time for one play I (and announcers) suspected they would just try to score the touchdown. To my surprise they brought out the field goal unit and kicked a field goal on the last play to cut the score to 30-23 making my +7.5 a winner.
Both these outcomes seemed rather unusual and seemed like there was intent to cover spreads (at least from where I was sitting). There was a possible reason for Rams kicking the field goal as score differential in head to head match up is a tie breaker, if the two teams ended up tied in the division, but that tie breaker is quite a ways down on the tie breaker list.
Anyway just a couple outcomes that make betting football interesting.
And for those that are doing some volume betting to play through bonus rollover requirements as I am doing, and I know some others like Axelwolf are doing, if you are using some of the methods described here to pick your plays, you are off to a good start.
Halfsmoke described a system where betting underdog with points for the first two weeks of NFL has been a winner dating back a number of years now. To date this year 19-11 with 2 games remaining.
Dan Druff is off to another quick NFL start @ 6-1 (although I missed one of his plays so I am 5-1).
Last week I played 22 college games playing the under based on the running clock rule change and went 14-8. I intended to play that same angle this week, but was out late Friday night and didn't get my bets in, so I skipped it. Not sure how it went. I had figured this was good for 2-3 weeks until books realized the effect was a little more than first thought. Undecided if I will go for one more week at this angle.
38-20 for just these 3 angles which is a good start. Of course the +EV is from the bonus money, and you hope to get through the rollover close to even, so this start is just a pleasant extra.
Since several of these angles were only for first couple of weeks, now need to figure a new way to make picks to hopefully continue to at least break over while I work through the rollover. Hopefully Druff stays hot. Axelwolf, how are you doing since it seems you are pretty much doing the same thing?
By the way, not all angles are winning. I have also played an angle betting the over in baseball games with an over/under of 7.5. I believe this is also a halfsmoke angle that has shown to be profitable over several years. While I have done it over the last 2 weeks, this angle is only 4-7 in a small sample size.
But again, the goal is to get some high volume of wagers in while coming close to breaking even, so EV from the bonuses kick in and it has been a good September so far.
UNKewlJ done a little studying up on sports betting, so that he may pretend to be involved with that, since his blackjack fable blew up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Mdog, are you really THIS insecure, that you need to comment and lie about everything I post and share? I mean really...just grow the fuck up. Just continue to tell your little 'story' and stop obsessing about me.
Not that it matters, but nothing about my blackjack play has blown up. I continue to make a living from advantage play, mostly blackjack. Nothing you say or lie about changes that.