Professional Sportsbetting

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Redietz once said his lifetime batting average against the spread is 57%. I think that would be about a 9% earn on -110 betting.

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This is the part I don't get. If someone can REALLY pick winners at 57% consistently, they can make a lot of money. What do they need 'clients' for?

What is the final line in the movie Casino? Rosenthal says something like "in the end I was right back where I started. I could always pick winners". If you can pick winners, you pick winners. Everything else just complicates it with more hands in the cookie jar.

The one thing I learned from Red was about all the contests and stuff. I had no idea. There is definitely hidden EV in playing these contests for players that are good sports handicappers. But I just don't get this client stuff. Red will call me stupid and that is fine. I never claimed to be an expert in sports betting. Just trying to pick up a few things along the way that can result in some +Ev plays, especially after the bonuses dry up.

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With a 9% edge and kelly betting a 100 unit bankroll will turn into a 200 unit bankroll in just 10 bets, a 300 unit bankroll in just 15 bets, a million dollar bankroll in just 41 bets. Of course these are averages.

Using a conservative half kelly would take just twice as many bets.

If you bet other people's money for a 10% take you are cutting your edge to less than 1%. So no, it don't make sense to make other people money when you can make it all for yourself at a very fast pace using kelly. That is, if you are a 57% college football handicapper.

I've never seen redietz write about kelly betting much less whether he used it or not. He definitely SHOULD HAVE used it.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

If you bet other people's money for a 10% take you are cutting your edge to less than 1%. So no, it don't make sense to make other people money when you can make it all for yourself at a very fast pace using kelly.

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What about both betting his own money @ 9% return,
plus 9 clients @ 1% each?

Wouldn't that double his earn, with the same risk?

I remember stock broker friends getting signing bonuses in the form of forgivable loans, with the stipulation that they must use the loan principle to match the investments that they hooked their clients into.

That's pretty similar to what Integrity Sports does, and uh yeah...it makes sense to do that.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

If you bet other people's money for a 10% take you are cutting your edge to less than 1%. So no, it don't make sense to make other people money when you can make it all for yourself at a very fast pace using kelly.

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What about both betting his own money @ 9% return,
plus 9 clients @ 1% each?

Wouldn't that double his earn, with the same risk?

I remember stock broker friends getting signing bonuses in the form of forgivable loans, with the stipulation that they must use the loan principle to match the investments that they hooked their clients into.

That's pretty similar to what Integrity Sports does, and uh yeah...it makes sense to do that.

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All the time, effort, and work that goes into recruiting clients,
making/updating websites, dealing with payouts, keeping the books, doing the seminars, needing to prove yourself (constantly having to tout your records), and whatever else goes into it shouldn't be worth it. Also, you're going to be limited, backed off, lose accounts, move lines, etc much faster for much less.

It isn't all bad if you are reaping their rewards and keeping them for yourself via cashback, reduced vig, free contests, loyalty points, bonus money etc.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

whatever else goes into it shouldn't be worth it.

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How does one measure or decide if their work is worth it?

Should they let you decide for them?

Because it sounds like your standard is...if you have to work for it, then it's not worth it.

Just seems to me the more people you involve, the more things can go wrong or something can go south.

If someone can really pick 57% on a regular basis, just do it. That would be like printing money. Yes there is variance involved. There is always variance involved. And I love that Red is going to tell me that I don't understand variance. I play a game with less than 1% advantage and have dealt with variance for 20+ years. Sometimes pretty extreme variance. Which I have shared.

If you are afraid of variance you shouldn't be playing at all. And if you have a significant advantage, which you would picking 57%. and you are afraid of variance, something is really wrong.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

whatever else goes into it shouldn't be worth it.

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How does one measure or decide if their work is worth it?

Should they let you decide for them?

Because it sounds like your standard is...if you have to work for it, then it's not worth it.

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Financially, that work and time would be better spent just betting for yourself making 100% of the profits. There's a limit to how much money can get down on games in many cases, I assume more so in college football. It would be far better for someome to get down 50k on a game for himself than to get down 25k for himself and 25k for his investors.

If you can pick 57% and you have been doing it for years.

Refer to MC's Kelly examples and see just how fast your wealth should grow. That number goes way up when you start getting half juice and you get bonuses, free contests, rebates, etc.

Im still looking for examples of well-known professional bettors that take on investors.

Did I miss it or is redietz still ducking Axel's request for questions to ask Anthony Curtis?

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

There's a limit to how much money can get down on games in many cases.

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Are you assuming that the "advisor" handles all of the betting through his own accounts, that the clients don't have their own accounts?

Do pay-me-if-you-win touts put action down for their clients, or do the clients use their own bookies?

Why do you use a team for your plays?

Isn't it because you are individually limited as to how much action you can get down?

You get 100% of the profits on your action, plus a percentage of your "employees" action...the action they run through based on the information you gave them.

Isn't that how your teams work?

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Did I miss it or is redietz still ducking Axel's request for questions to ask Anthony Curtis?

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Is he on the clock or something?

Anyway, nobody ducks more questions or requests than Axel.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Did I miss it or is redietz still ducking Axel's request for questions to ask Anthony Curtis?

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Is he on the clock or something?

Anyway, nobody ducks more questions or requests than Axel.

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Wouldn't he make an initial response regardless?

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Financially, that work and time would be better spent just betting for yourself making 100% of the profits.

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Seems to me that the work and time required for the analysis is paramount, it doesn't lack the required attention no matter how many clients are involved.

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Wouldn't he make an initial response regardless?

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Go back and read the thread and you should be able to figure it out.

Get back to me if you need help translating the ditz-speak, and I'll try to wise you up.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Did I miss it or is redietz still ducking Axel's request for questions to ask Anthony Curtis?

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Is he on the clock or something?

Anyway, nobody ducks more questions or requests than Axel.

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Come to think of it, it seems like he isn't really on the cock since he has time to piddle fuck around with freebee football contests.

The people who I know who make a good living at sports betting don't have time for that type of nonsense they put a lot of time and effort into their craft.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

There's a limit to how much money can get down on games in many cases.

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Are you assuming that the "advisor" handles all of the betting through his own accounts, that the clients don't have their own accounts?

Do pay-me-if-you-win touts put action down for their clients, or do the clients use their own bookies?

Why do you use a team for your plays?

Isn't it because you are individually limited as to how much action you can get down?

You get 100% of the profits on your action, plus a percentage of your "employees" action...the action they run through based on the information you gave them.

Isn't that how your teams work?

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A well-rounded "do it all" Advantage Play team is drastically different from a professional sports bettor.

There are multiple different advantages being part of a team that really shouldn't come into play sports betting. For example, there could be a machine that needs to be locked up 24/7 in order to capture all the value. A team can cover multiple locations and even multiple States at one time. Various different people on your team may have different skill skills that drastically help things run more efficiently. With a team, an individual can take more time off at a moment's notice without much disturbance to whatever you have going on at the time. The list goes on and on.

Allowing investors access and the responsibility of running their accounts seems like a recipe for disaster.
Multiple accounts betting the same games might certainly raise some suspicions and if you're going out of your way to coordinate cover play and whatnot that's cutting into your time and ability to properly handicap. Once again, having investors creates complications and problems that damper your ability to maximize your value.

As mentioned before, I guess it's all a moot point since we don't have enough details of what's going on.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Did I miss it or is redietz still ducking Axel's request for questions to ask Anthony Curtis?

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Is he on the clock or something?

Anyway, nobody ducks more questions or requests than Axel.

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I do, since when? That is a complete lie. Feel free to point them out. I may miss somthing or get onto another subject, but im not ducking questions.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I may miss somthing or get onto another subject, but im not ducking questions.

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Is that how it works, you ask questions but don't answer questions, then claim that you missed the questions except for the ones that you asked?

I can list questions that you didn't answer and ducked.

How many do I need to list for you to admit that you are ducking?

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I may miss somthing or get onto another subject, but im not ducking questions.

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Is that how it works, you ask questions but don't answer questions, then claim that you missed the questions except for the ones that you asked?

I can list questions that you didn't answer and ducked.

How many do I need to list for you to admit that you are ducking?

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I have answered more stuff than most people. its simple, re-ask one at a time.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Did I miss it or is redietz still ducking Axel's request for questions to ask Anthony Curtis?

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Is he on the clock or something?

Anyway, nobody ducks more questions or requests than Axel.

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He certainly isn’t on the clock for appearing for an interview. That clock broke. Same with the credit score.

Coach, besides the Anthony Curtis questions axel also issued a challenge. Don’t hold your breath for redietz to get back to him on that one.

The clients obviously had to deliver money to redietz. He would want full control of the money. Reason number one is to make sure he gets paid. Reason 2, the client can’t pull out of the process anytime he wants to.

From reading the Integrity Sports ad it appeared to me that redietz was requesting investors to send him money at the beginning of the season and they get paid at the end of the season.