Professional Sportsbetting

[tableplay]

let's assume he gets in 2 million worth of bets for the year on behalf of his clients and let's assume he gets 10% of that. That means he would be only making 20k for the year.

Isn't 10% of 2 Million, 200,000 (rather than 20,000 which is 1% of 2 million) ? Perhaps you meant 1% rather than 10%. Or perhaps I just misread/misinterpreted your post.

Would one possible reason to refuse client betting be to avoid undesired line movement for personal bets ? Perhaps knowledgeable sports bettors can chime in on this supposition.

[AxelWolf]

let's assume he gets in 2 million worth of bets for the year on behalf of his clients and let's assume he gets 10% of that. That means he would be only making 20k for the year.

Isn't 10% of 2 Million, 200,000 (rather than 20,000 which is 1% of 2 million) ? Perhaps you meant 1% rather than 10%. Or perhaps I just misread/misinterpreted your post.

Would one possible reason to refuse client betting be to avoid undesired line movement for personal bets ? Perhaps knowledgeable sports bettors can chime in on this supposition.

Yes, and that's been discussed before related to this very conversation in the past. It's not really going to matter someone's always going to say there's a way around this that or the other thing.

[AxelWolf]

let's assume he gets in 2 million worth of bets for the year on behalf of his clients and let's assume he gets 10% of that. That means he would be only making 20k for the year.

Isn't 10% of 2 Million, 200,000 (rather than 20,000 which is 1% of 2 million) ? Perhaps you meant 1% rather than 10%. Or perhaps I just misread/misinterpreted your post.

Would one possible reason to refuse client betting be to avoid undesired line movement for personal bets ? Perhaps knowledgeable sports bettors can chime in on this supposition.

I'm saying he's going to get 10% of whatever his clients make.

[tableplay]

let's assume he gets in 2 million worth of bets for the year on behalf of his clients and let's assume he gets 10% of that. That means he would be only making 20k for the year.

Isn't 10% of 2 Million, 200,000 (rather than 20,000 which is 1% of 2 million) ? Perhaps you meant 1% rather than 10%. Or perhaps I just misread/misinterpreted your post.

Would one possible reason to refuse client betting be to avoid undesired line movement for personal bets ? Perhaps knowledgeable sports bettors can chime in on this supposition.

I'm saying he's going to get 10% of whatever his clients make.

Ok, so his clients would be making $200,000 per year on $2,000,000 worth of wagering . . .

[monet]

The wall just got Ten Feet Higher!

[AxelWolf]

Isn't 10% of 2 Million, 200,000 (rather than 20,000 which is 1% of 2 million) ? Perhaps you meant 1% rather than 10%. Or perhaps I just misread/misinterpreted your post.

Would one possible reason to refuse client betting be to avoid undesired line movement for personal bets ? Perhaps knowledgeable sports bettors can chime in on this supposition.

I'm saying he's going to get 10% of whatever his clients make.

Ok, so his clients would be making $200,000 per year on $2,000,000 worth of wagering . . .

IF he can get a 10% advantage, and IF he can get down 2 million in action. And if they give up 10% of their winnings.

[AxelWolf]

You know, I don't go around AP-splainin' blackjack to kewlJ or AP-splainin' video poker to Dancer or AP-splainin' any other games to you. But you think, and these other brain dead, arrogant alleged AP maroons, that you have cornered the market on overall gambling wisdom, when you inhabit your little individual crevices, involving not much money, with your college sophomore probability and wanderings around casinos.

How about this? Let us say I'm willing to give Dan access to a handful of my sports/casino accounts and he can do a dive into "If I know what I'm doing". He can see how much im up, what I have invested etc etc. You can say a few lucky big bets are meaningless, and I would agree.

Dan can assess that there are a significant number of wagers(It might be a shit ton of work, there is probably a way to import it directly to a spreadsheet) and accounts that go well above the standard deviation of it being simple luck even if I were to cherry-pick as the number of wagers and places would be overwhelming enough to realize it's not just running good. Other than gracing me with your decades-old "I worked for Billy Walters" stories... what do you have to offer?

"involving not much money" I can guarantee you that I have wagered much more of my money than you have with your own money at +EV lifetime in less time than you have.

If that won't work for you, how about a contest of some sort? Just spitballing here: You must use your own money, no investor's money, no team bankroll money, and no borrowed money. We both start with the same amount of bankroll. We play at an agreed-upon offshore joint. You can't re-up/add more bankroll money, transfer money from other people or accounts, or play poker/live casino games. Our bet sizes will be limited to an agreed-on amount. You can bet as much or as little as you want(not to exceed the betting limit) on whatever you want, and you use whatever bonuses you want. The goal is to make money so whoever makes more money at the end of x number of days wins. We can agree on how much we are each willing to put up to make it worthwhile. We can set aside somthing for the verifier to check accounts and make sure no rules were broken.

[mickeycrimm]

I dont think they are paying per pick. I think they give/gave him money. He bets or has them bet and they give him a percentage of the wins.

I used one pick as an example...does there have to be more than one pick per season?

Wouldn't a 10K commission on one 100K winner qualify?

If you divide his total commission by the total number of picks, then you come up with an average commission per pick. That could end up being 10K per pick, even if it's more than one pick.

See the post above. It's not worth going over this until there's a better understanding of how his buissness model works and what role he plays in that.

Furthermore one would need to know what his average winning percentages are. I have no clue if he yields -3% or +10%.

Redietz once said his lifetime batting average against the spread is 57%. I think that would be about a 9% earn on -110 betting.

[mickeycrimm]

I dont think they are paying per pick. I think they give/gave him money. He bets or has them bet and they give him a percentage of the wins.

I used one pick as an example...does there have to be more than one pick per season?

Wouldn't a 10K commission on one 100K winner qualify?

If you divide his total commission by the total number of picks, then you come up with an average commission per pick. That could end up being 10K per pick, even if it's more than one pick.

It’s a possibility redietz was paid on a seasonal basis.

[mickeycrimm]

Why wouldn't they...aren't clients essentially a freeroll?

When it comes to investing clients one should only be getting a very small percentage, unless they are unethicly fleecing their clients. That wouldn't fit the narrative of Integrity Sports.

Let us assume a tout(for lack of a better term) is making his clients 10% via handicapping (That seems unrealistically high, but we will go with it).
let's assume he gets in 2 million worth of bets for the year on behalf of his clients and let's assume he gets 10% of that. That means he would be only making 20k for the year.

Without investors, he would be making 200k per year. Why would one want to give up 180k? I can understand if a guy is first starting out and he needs to build up a bankroll.

Red said himself, AP Sports betting dwarfs most other forms of AP because it's highly scalable. If you have had years of a proven track record, there's very little reason you would need or want investors for long since a meager bankroll should be growing year after year using Kelly.

There are probably some benefits to having investors beyond the freeroll aspect, but I highly doubt that would make up for that 90% you are giving up.

This is the last time I address you, Axel. You have very little idea what you are talking about. You keep saying "sports betting." Get it through your head -- for the most part, there is no "sports betting." It's not highly scalable. Figure out why -- hint: it's partly because (1) it ain't coin flips and (2) expertise is restricted to individual sports because, guess what, sports are completely different.

So that pretty much buries whatever naive perspective you bring to the table.

You know, I don't go around AP-splainin' blackjack to kewlJ or AP-splainin' video poker to Dancer or AP-splainin' any other games to you. But you think, and these other brain dead, arrogant alleged AP maroons, that you have cornered the market on overall gambling wisdom, when you inhabit your little individual crevices, involving not much money, with your college sophomore probability and wanderings around casinos.

Have you ever considered that maybe other people know specific things a lot more and a lot better than you do? Because if that ever dawns on you, maybe you can muster enough discipline to not pontificate when you have no idea what you're talking about.

Leonardo Da APs -- it's like a plague of lemmings.

What I really love about you guys is that the thread is titled "Professional Sports Betting." You have one poster who actually was a professional sports bettor, and every one of you "APs" thinks you know better than him. Have you ever considered the irony of that?

LOL. It's not like I haven't done it for 45 years and gotten rave reviews in the process. "Nooooooooo" as John Belushi used to say. I especially like "The Riddler" making money with every single project, and nobody mentions him. It's comical.

Have a good one.

There have been many professional sports bettors featured in this thread. That was the intent. But you, Ditz, only want to rag people about it. Is that how your “educated friends” do it?

[redietz]

I used one pick as an example...does there have to be more than one pick per season?

Wouldn't a 10K commission on one 100K winner qualify?

If you divide his total commission by the total number of picks, then you come up with an average commission per pick. That could end up being 10K per pick, even if it's more than one pick.

See the post above. It's not worth going over this until there's a better understanding of how his buissness model works and what role he plays in that.

Furthermore one would need to know what his average winning percentages are. I have no clue if he yields -3% or +10%.

Redietz once said his lifetime batting average against the spread is 57%. I think that would be about a 9% earn on -110 betting.

In college football. If there's one thing I'd like the APs to get straight, it's that there is no utility in using the phrase "against the spread" without specifying a sport.

Now I say that, and preach it, but I will honestly admit that I used the concept against my competitors in advertising back in the 80's. When I tallied my competitors' "all sports" McCusker-monitored records versus my college football ATS records, my overall percentage a particular five-year bracket (I think it was 56.8% or something like that) was the best. Since I was only doing college football at the time, that's what my record was.

However, McCusker gave me grief about that kind of advertising, saying I was "comparing apples to oranges." I responded with "overall ATS is overall ATS," but I did stop advertising like that. I figured he was actually more correct. Gray area stuff, but I stopped.

The bottom line is that when you list ATS records, they really should be by individual sport, because certain sports are much easier than others. College football and college basketball have historically been the easiest.

I do not know anyone with a lifetime 57% NFL ATS record, for example.

[kewlJ]

Redietz once said his lifetime batting average against the spread is 57%. I think that would be about a 9% earn on -110 betting.

This is the part I don't get. If someone can REALLY pick winners at 57% consistently, they can make a lot of money. What do they need 'clients' for?

What is the final line in the movie Casino? Rosenthal says something like "in the end I was right back where I started. I could always pick winners". If you can pick winners, you pick winners. Everything else just complicates it with more hands in the cookie jar.

The one thing I learned from Red was about all the contests and stuff. I had no idea. There is definitely hidden EV in playing these contests for players that are good sports handicappers. But I just don't get this client stuff. Red will call me stupid and that is fine. I never claimed to be an expert in sports betting. Just trying to pick up a few things along the way that can result in some +Ev plays, especially after the bonuses dry up.

[MDawg]

kewlJ has also been caught in a lot of lies over time, both on this forum and elsewhere. Therefore, it is unclear if he really makes much (or anything) playing blackjack these days.

kewlJ is basically the Boy Who Cried Wolf of these AP forums. He has lied so many times that it's impossible to believe any stories he tells.

KewlJ, You can't complain about supposed lies told about you if you are the king of lying yourself.

[kewlJ]

Dawg your trolling of me, only confirms everything I have said about you, that it was all baloney. And the complete lack of any one at WoV responding to any one of your posts and gloriosa claims anymore is proof that everyone knows it.

Now I know you response is going to be to continue to troll and lie about me. No one expects anything less from you. But to hijack all these other threads, that are legit discussions is just disrespectful to people like mickeycrimm that started and are involved in these threads. Stop being such a complete lowlife sleezebag and control yourself.

[MDawg]

The truth is … UNKewlJ hasn’t spent 20 years playing blackjack. He’s spent 20 years trying to convince people that he’s been playing blackjack.

And now going on a year trying desperately to establish that he's ever placed a sports bet in his tunnel dwelling life.

[redietz]

Redietz once said his lifetime batting average against the spread is 57%. I think that would be about a 9% earn on -110 betting.

This is the part I don't get. If someone can REALLY pick winners at 57% consistently, they can make a lot of money. What do they need 'clients' for?

What is the final line in the movie Casino? Rosenthal says something like "in the end I was right back where I started. I could always pick winners". If you can pick winners, you pick winners. Everything else just complicates it with more hands in the cookie jar.

The one thing I learned from Red was about all the contests and stuff. I had no idea. There is definitely hidden EV in playing these contests for players that are good sports handicappers. But I just don't get this client stuff. Red will call me stupid and that is fine. I never claimed to be an expert in sports betting. Just trying to pick up a few things along the way that can result in some +Ev plays, especially after the bonuses dry up.

Yeah, stupid would be too kind.

If somebody can make a good hamburger and sell it to his neighborhood, why would he want to own a restaurant? Or a chain of restaurants?

Of course, when you are a whizbang card counter who got a scholarship to Villanova but decides after a year that his uncle was paying too much...LOL. I guess transferring credits to a moderately priced college wasn't part of "the math." Who in God's name believes any of your bullshit?

What are you really doing on these forums, kewlJ(s)? Trying to hook investors? Trying to hook up with (as opposed to hook -- see what I did there?) folks in need of male companionship?

Nobody could possibly be as dense-when-convenient as you are.

And for all of your variance spiels and bullshit annual reports, you ignore variance as it pertains to "sports betting," which is either incredibly stupid or incredibly dishonest. Hard to tell which.

MDawg, you can quote me on this, and you don't even need to buy me a coffee.

Also, that reminds me -- I'm heading to LV in a week. The Riddler, who retired from posting here, says he has a couple teams I should examine at Circa. Anybody who wants to share coffee and pie, drop me a line at IntegritySports@aol.com.

Adios, and thanks for all the fish.

[kewlJ]

Redietz, incredibly intentional dishonest post from you. Everything from "my uncle" to hook up reference. I expect that from the trolls. Shame on you.

[coach belly]

What do they need 'clients' for?

Don't they teach business courses at Nova?

[accountinquestion]

Mickey found an archive of redietzs site where he offered a return. IiRC the range was 8 to 11 % but no idea. Mickey pointed out that the ROI is basically EV under a different name.

[mickeycrimm]

Redietz once said his lifetime batting average against the spread is 57%. I think that would be about a 9% earn on -110 betting.

This is the part I don't get. If someone can REALLY pick winners at 57% consistently, they can make a lot of money. What do they need 'clients' for?

What is the final line in the movie Casino? Rosenthal says something like "in the end I was right back where I started. I could always pick winners". If you can pick winners, you pick winners. Everything else just complicates it with more hands in the cookie jar.

The one thing I learned from Red was about all the contests and stuff. I had no idea. There is definitely hidden EV in playing these contests for players that are good sports handicappers. But I just don't get this client stuff. Red will call me stupid and that is fine. I never claimed to be an expert in sports betting. Just trying to pick up a few things along the way that can result in some +Ev plays, especially after the bonuses dry up.

Yeah, stupid would be too kind.

If somebody can make a good hamburger and sell it to his neighborhood, why would he want to own a restaurant? Or a chain of restaurants?

Of course, when you are a whizbang card counter who got a scholarship to Villanova but decides after a year that his uncle was paying too much...LOL. I guess transferring credits to a moderately priced college wasn't part of "the math." Who in God's name believes any of your bullshit?

What are you really doing on these forums, kewlJ(s)? Trying to hook investors? Trying to hook up with (as opposed to hook -- see what I did there?) folks in need of male companionship?

Nobody could possibly be as dense-when-convenient as you are.

And for all of your variance spiels and bullshit annual reports, you ignore variance as it pertains to "sports betting," which is either incredibly stupid or incredibly dishonest. Hard to tell which.

MDawg, you can quote me on this, and you don't even need to buy me a coffee.

Also, that reminds me -- I'm heading to LV in a week. The Riddler, who retired from posting here, says he has a couple teams I should examine at Circa. Anybody who wants to share coffee and pie, drop me a line at IntegritySports@aol.com.

Adios, and thanks for all the fish.

When you've got a 57% long term win average the variance don't mean shit in a contest where you can hit 50% just by throwing darts at the spreadsheet. Sportsbetting is one of the lowest variance gambling games out there.Try video poker if you want to see some variance. Also, variance is a two-way street.