Professional Sportsbetting

I will say this much. Thank God mickeycrimm is around and speaks redietz-ese, otherwise I wouldn't even know what redietz is ranting about. :D

As it turns out redietz is just standing on his soapbox, screaming at the top of his lungs that he is the only person that can make money at sports betting, not really reading, nor understanding what someone else is doing with the bonus rollover-play through and volume betting.


It is just an extension of what has been playing out for a while now. Redietz, old school, thinks his way is the only way and refuses to accept that there are APs that can and are making money in sports betting a different way, using the bonuses as +EV, rather than actually picking more winners than losers.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I will say this much...I

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am a

Redietz going on about middles. lol. Sure they're great but there is so much more to it.

Redietz clearly is not a professional gambler. If so, he would realize that there is a time element. I don't think middles are a strategy pursued by many. If you come across one then sure. Freeroll time! Great.... but that doesn't mean you'll come across them often on. He just doesn't get so much. Especially given the nature of bonus grinding which implies you are not keeping money on many sites. (which greatly enables the possibility of coming across a middle)

Either you enjoy what you are doing or you should strongly consider the time aspect. (hourly) Sitting around looking for middles for weeks to finish out the bonus is not a smart use of your time if you have other outs. In addition having to lock up money all over the place is not so great. Not really a strategy for winners.

You can be a slot vulture and have guaranteed profit on every play but you're going to be wasting a lot of time looking for them and lose out on overall profit. Anyway.. not going to go into analogies. If people can't see Redietz is a fool then I'm not going to be able to fix that.

And lets not get into the fact that he openly spouts gambling fallacies as the rational thing to do. lolz. Poor bastard. Not clueful enough to realize how clueless he is. A bad spot to be in life.....

Redietz, you poor bastard, good luck.

That being said I'm not a professional sports bettor or claim to know much about it. It appears I know enough to spot bullshit though. ;)

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Redietz going on about middles. lol. Sure they're great but there is so much more to it.

Redietz clearly is not a professional gambler. If so, he would realize that there is a time element. I don't think middles are a strategy pursued by many. If you come across one then sure. Freeroll time! Great.... but that doesn't mean you'll come across them often on. He just doesn't get so much. Especially given the nature of bonus grinding which implies you are not keeping money on many sites. (which greatly enables the possibility of coming across a middle)

Either you enjoy what you are doing or you should strongly consider the time aspect. (hourly) Sitting around looking for middles for weeks to finish out the bonus is not a smart use of your time if you have other outs. In addition having to lock up money all over the place is not so great. Not really a strategy for winners.

You can be a slot vulture and have guaranteed profit on every play but you're going to be wasting a lot of time looking for them and lose out on overall profit. Anyway.. not going to go into analogies. If people can't see Redietz is a fool then I'm not going to be able to fix that.

And lets not get into the fact that he openly spouts gambling fallacies as the rational thing to do. lolz. Poor bastard. Not clueful enough to realize how clueless he is. A bad spot to be in life.....

Redietz, you poor bastard, good luck.

That being said I'm not a professional sports bettor or claim to know much about it. It appears I know enough to spot bullshit though. ;)

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Now you know the reason dude is living in a shack in bumfuck Tennessee and can't pay his tax bill....RIP

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Redietz going on about middles. lol. Sure they're great but there is so much more to it.

Redietz clearly is not a professional gambler. If so, he would realize that there is a time element. I don't think middles are a strategy pursued by many. If you come across one then sure. Freeroll time! Great.... but that doesn't mean you'll come across them often on. He just doesn't get so much. Especially given the nature of bonus grinding which implies you are not keeping money on many sites. (which greatly enables the possibility of coming across a middle)

Either you enjoy what you are doing or you should strongly consider the time aspect. (hourly) Sitting around looking for middles for weeks to finish out the bonus is not a smart use of your time if you have other outs. In addition having to lock up money all over the place is not so great. Not really a strategy for winners.

You can be a slot vulture and have guaranteed profit on every play but you're going to be wasting a lot of time looking for them and lose out on overall profit. Anyway.. not going to go into analogies. If people can't see Redietz is a fool then I'm not going to be able to fix that.

And lets not get into the fact that he openly spouts gambling fallacies as the rational thing to do. lolz. Poor bastard. Not clueful enough to realize how clueless he is. A bad spot to be in life.....

Redietz, you poor bastard, good luck.

That being said I'm not a professional sports bettor or claim to know much about it. It appears I know enough to spot bullshit though. ;)

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Now you know the reason dude is living in a shack in bumfuck Tennessee and can't pay his tax bill....RIP

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lmao sitting around scratching his balls drinking his folger's that he brewed the 2nd time off the same grounds.. looking for his next middle... "maybe next week".

Guys that think they are "middleing" experts think they can read how the public will bet. If they see a line on Monday Morning that they think the public is going to bet heavy on one side moving the line, they immediately bet it and wait for that line change.

Now the line has to change a decent amount for middling to work. Moving a half point or even a point doesn't create much of a middling opportunity. So if it ends up the line doesn't move or doesn't move as much as they thought it would, then they have just blindly bet on one side @ -EV (the vig). So if you are doing this middling thing you better be right about what you think the public is going to bet.

Of all the sports betting strategies, I think this is a tough one. Real slim, narrow edge if you are right, more often than not.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Guys that think they are "middleing" experts think they can read how the public will bet. If they see a line on Monday Morning that they think the public is going to bet heavy on one side moving the line, they immediately bet it and wait for that line change.

Now the line has to change a decent amount for middling to work. Moving a half point or even a point doesn't create much of a middling opportunity. So if it ends up the line doesn't move or doesn't move as much as they thought it would, then they have just blindly bet on one side @ -EV (the vig). So if you are doing this middling thing you better be right about what you think the public is going to bet.

Of all the sports betting strategies, I think this is a tough one. Real slim, narrow edge if you are right, more often than not.

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Since you read forums as much as anyone on here - where is data that shows the EV of various middles?

.
at WoV I started a new tracking - new for me

the public consensus pick of 65% or greater - it's shown at the link and also at covers.com

for this NFL season these picks are currently 20-7 and went 5-2 last week

unfortunately, it's too difficult to locate the data to go back to prior years to really know if it's profitable or if this year's results are just chance

if I had to guess I would guess that it is profitable but by nowhere near what the record currently is

in horse racing it is well known that the favorite - the public pick - will outperform in r.o.i. all of the other horses in any long tracking and will outperform the longshots by a lot

the huge takeout in racing means that betting the fave on every play will still cause a sizeable loss

something like - betting to win on the fave every time the bettor would lose somewhere about 12% of all the money wagered whereas the track takeout on win bets averages about 17%

it is also well known that the lower the odds the less the fave will lose - all faves bet down to 4/5 will lose considerably less than all faves priced at 5/2

I believe these facts re racing give some clue to this

I will continue to track this season on WoV




https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public...blic-consensus

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Guys that think they are "middleing" experts think they can read how the public will bet. If they see a line on Monday Morning that they think the public is going to bet heavy on one side moving the line, they immediately bet it and wait for that line change.

Now the line has to change a decent amount for middling to work. Moving a half point or even a point doesn't create much of a middling opportunity. So if it ends up the line doesn't move or doesn't move as much as they thought it would, then they have just blindly bet on one side @ -EV (the vig). So if you are doing this middling thing you better be right about what you think the public is going to bet.

Of all the sports betting strategies, I think this is a tough one. Real slim, narrow edge if you are right, more often than not.

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Since you read forums as much as anyone on here - where is data that shows the EV of various middles?

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I think it was half smoke that put this chart up a while back. You can use the chart to calculate EV on middles.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Guys that think they are "middleing" experts think they can read how the public will bet. If they see a line on Monday Morning that they think the public is going to bet heavy on one side moving the line, they immediately bet it and wait for that line change.

Now the line has to change a decent amount for middling to work. Moving a half point or even a point doesn't create much of a middling opportunity. So if it ends up the line doesn't move or doesn't move as much as they thought it would, then they have just blindly bet on one side @ -EV (the vig). So if you are doing this middling thing you better be right about what you think the public is going to bet.

Of all the sports betting strategies, I think this is a tough one. Real slim, narrow edge if you are right, more often than not.

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Since you read forums as much as anyone on here - where is data that shows the EV of various middles?

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Wrong AIQ. He NEVER reads PFA, has NEVER had an account there( not in question) and has NO CLUE who Chrissy Kyle Prescott Mitchell is. He ALWAYS tells the truth. How dare you say that about the UNKOOL1!!

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Redietz going on about middles. lol. Sure they're great but there is so much more to it.

Redietz clearly is not a professional gambler. If so, he would realize that there is a time element. I don't think middles are a strategy pursued by many. If you come across one then sure. Freeroll time! Great.... but that doesn't mean you'll come across them often on. He just doesn't get so much. Especially given the nature of bonus grinding which implies you are not keeping money on many sites. (which greatly enables the possibility of coming across a middle)

Either you enjoy what you are doing or you should strongly consider the time aspect. (hourly) Sitting around looking for middles for weeks to finish out the bonus is not a smart use of your time if you have other outs. In addition having to lock up money all over the place is not so great. Not really a strategy for winners.

You can be a slot vulture and have guaranteed profit on every play but you're going to be wasting a lot of time looking for them and lose out on overall profit. Anyway.. not going to go into analogies. If people can't see Redietz is a fool then I'm not going to be able to fix that.

And lets not get into the fact that he openly spouts gambling fallacies as the rational thing to do. lolz. Poor bastard. Not clueful enough to realize how clueless he is. A bad spot to be in life.....

Redietz, you poor bastard, good luck.

That being said I'm not a professional sports bettor or claim to know much about it. It appears I know enough to spot bullshit though. ;)

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I rarely ever go to that site so im not sure what he is getting on about, but From what I gathered redietz was preaching about how middling was not a viable option to make decent money is sports. I can't remember exactly what he said but he basically called out/put down everything but handicapping.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I rarely ever go to that site so im not sure what he is getting on about, but From what I gathered redietz was preaching about how middling was not a viable option to make decent money is sports. I can't remember exactly what he said but he basically called out/put down everything but handicapping

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I think I can recap what is going on over there with redietz the past few days. As everyone knows I am not good with brevity and I don't think this can be brief, but I will try.

This particular redietz freakout is about me. For years I have done a little sports betting for entertainment and at a small cost of a couple thousand a year betting games and watching. Typical ploppy sports betting shit. With all the talk of sports betting and particularly inspired by Axelwolf saying how anybody could make money sports betting taking advantages of the online bonus, I decided to give it a shot. Axelwolf, I don't believe is a big sports guy. He said something about it doesn't really matter how you pick your games, you could flip a coin and still make money (because it is really all about the bonus money).

So with a bit of "extra money" on my hands this year after a settlement, I deposited money into 4 different sportsbooks online. I asked around, and picked sportsbooks that some people use and have confidence in, including one that I have been using for years. End result was 21k in bonus money with about 100k in rollover requirements.

Next how to pick my games. I decided rather than a coin flip or my on handicapping talents which has proven to be lacking, I would employ some of the techniques being talked about in the past 6 months by mickey and others. These were trend type things from years past that seem to do well every year. At the top of that list was a play that Half Smoke had mentions, betting NFL underdogs (with points) the first 2 weeks of the season. I think results were this had been a winner for 5 years. Well each of the first 2 weeks went 10-6 this year so that was a +8 start.

Second method of picking I was going to use was following Dan Druff's NFL picks. Druff was fantastic in the NFL last years, and I don't know how he makes his picks exactly but he seems to do well. So Druff went 6-1 over the first couple weeks to start the NFL season. So this made me +13 in picks for the first couple weeks.

The 3rd angle I wanted to employ, was something I saw on one of the handicapping TV shows. New college rules of a running clock except the last 2 minutes of halves, was supposed to shorten the games by about 6 plays. Over unders would be adjusted accordingly, but several guys on this show seemed to think the effect would be more that what was projected at least initially. So I decided to bet the under on all competitive college football games the first few weeks. Competitive means, throwing out games that were one of the majors conference teams against some non-major conference team, where scores are often 70-10. lets call these "the cupcake games".

So for the first two weeks this angle won both weeks for another +9. Total 22 games over .500. Add in a few of my own picks picking underdogs getting 3.5 and 7.5 points, another angle and I was 25 games over .500 after 2 weeks. When I posted this redietz freaked out, screaming no one could be 25 games over .500. I don't think redietz even knew the volume of wagering I was doing. It isn't like I was 27-2 or something I was 56-31.

I tried to explain to redietz that I had been very fortunate in the angles I was playing all happened to do well those first 2 weeks. It isn't like I am some great handicapper. But he continued to freak out. He seems to have this bug up his ass that AP's can't and shouldn't be making money at sports betting and resents anyone who is.

So the middling comments came from reditz saying if I was really +25 after two weeks (which went down to almost 0 over the next 3 weeks), I should have preserved that +25 by middleing. I know about middleing strategies but have never been real impressed. You have to wait around all week constantly watching lines for a little movement and frankly, that didn't interest me, nor did I want to invest my time like that. This after all was a supplemental thing for me. I was and am still just trying to get through my rollover requirements, as close to .500 or above if possible.

But in the end, it all comes back to redietz thinks he is some great sports handicapper and no one can make money, at sports but him, when the fact is there are all kinds of ways to make money with the bonuses and all today. Like Axelwolf said, you don't even have to know or follow sports to make money using the bonuses.

So that is what the past few days and this particular freak out by redietz have been about.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

So the middling comments came from reditz saying if I was really +25 after two weeks (which went down to almost 0 over the next 3 weeks), I should have preserved that +25 by middleing.

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What's this comment (below) all about?

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Originally Posted by redietz

I never here, and have never anywhere, suggested middles shooting for NFL sides.

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Using this binomial distribution calculator -

https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mb...pplets/bin.htm

... and the very optimistic assumption of .55 win probability I get a 4.8% chance of going 56-31 or better in 87 games.

Using .5 as the win probability I get .048% (that seems a bit extreme though?).

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

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Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

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Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

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FraudJ is GOAT !

KewlJ, where did you post these 87 (?) bets before game time?

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

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Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

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On the other hand, 100% fraudulence is a lot of fraudulence.

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

On the other hand, 100% fraudulence is a lot of fraudulence.

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And you, a once reasonable member have become nothing but a lot of flatulence.

This whole new sportsbetting/bonus grinding thing is pretty great if we didn't have to read Kewl's posts to know about it.

If kewl happened to be correct about Redietz's motivations it probably more sad than anything.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

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Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

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KewlJ here is your chance to redeem yourself. Then we know you're using your "extra money" like you claim. Show us where it is documented. No big deal.. don't go into this "I don't gotta prove nuttin' sashaying about hand on hip bullshit. Just show us.

I got this one guys.

edit - I suspect this response will take longer than your average kewl defense. Stay tuned.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

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Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

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KewlJ here is your chance to redeem yourself. Then we know you're using your "extra money" like you claim. Show us where it is documented. No big deal.. don't go into this "I don't gotta prove nuttin' sashaying about hand on hip bullshit. Just show us.

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Don't forget about the lithp. :)

Robert, so you've heard KJ talk?

He has a lisp, eh?

Is that a fact or just more homophobic bullshit from the cheap seats?

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

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KewlJ here is your chance to redeem yourself. Then we know you're using your "extra money" like you claim. Show us where it is documented. No big deal.. don't go into this "I don't gotta prove nuttin' sashaying about hand on hip bullshit. Just show us.

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Don't forget about the lithp. :)

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Rob, now that is homophobic.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

KewlJ here is your chance to redeem yourself. Then we know you're using your "extra money" like you claim. Show us where it is documented. No big deal.. don't go into this "I don't gotta prove nuttin' sashaying about hand on hip bullshit. Just show us.

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Ok in looking, most of the conversations were private with Axelwolf and Half Smoke. We were discussing the first 2 weeks play several times. They are free to verify that or not. Additionally, Axelwolf and myself were discussing road dogs +3 3.5, 7 points an angle based on Wizards data that contributed to my +25 first two weeks.

This post was made during the games being played the first week of NFL. Axelwolf and I had discussed this play privately. Again, he can verify that if he wants or not. So at this time the NFL underdogs plays were 9-6 of the first week. I obviously was playing this angle from the conversation, which ended 10-6 the first week and another 10-6 the second week. So that is another +8 of the 25.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I haven't had time to see how the... first 2 weeks take the points system, has panned out so far.

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9-6 so far with one game remaining. The Sunday night game was a real beauty. Giants +3.5, which was not only a play by this first two weeks underdog system, but also a play by the home team +3.5 system I am using, so it was a double play for me. Giants lost 40-0 :D, But Druff's picks are 3-0 so far, so that helps.

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Dan Druffs picks are self explanatory. I think most of us were playing Druffs picks based on how well he did last year. He went 6-1 those first two weeks.

The college unders the first few weeks, an angle I got from the Daily Wager sports betting show, I think I kept to myself until after the second weekend. I mentioned it to Axelwolf, that here is another angle you might want to try. This too was a limited time thing of the first few weeks. I was planning on betting it a 3rd week but didn't get the bets in.

So AinQ if you are looking for me to show where I posted each and every bet I made, prior to the games, no I didn't do that. I did talk about what I was betting in discussion (most private) with other members that were doing the same or similar wagering. And again, they can verify that or not. Their choice. I am not going to post the actual private discussion, not that it is top secret or anything.

Now I suspect that won't be good enough for you but I don't give a fuck. This wasn't about YOU or even me bragging about my picks. These were discussions among the people making these plays. And lost in your trolling of me will be how that +25 advantage after 2 weeks, lost down to +1 after 5 weeks. A loss of 24 of that initial 25 cushion.

I have 2-3 (looks like 3 actually) more weeks of this heavy volume betting action. If you want me to list everything I am betting friday night when I make my bets, I guess I could, but as I have been trying to explain to redietz, it isn't about what I am betting or even whether I win or lose each week. It is about getting in the volume bets while hopefully staying close to .500. The money, the EV is from the bonus money. It just so happens those first two weeks were extraordinary. Not because anything I did. I give credit to Half Mmoke and his first two weeks NFL play, Dan Druff and his 6-1 start and the guys on Daily wager who suggested college unders the first 2-3 weeks.

So respond as you wish AinQ.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

KewlJ here is your chance to redeem yourself. Then we know you're using your "extra money" like you claim. Show us where it is documented. No big deal.. don't go into this "I don't gotta prove nuttin' sashaying about hand on hip bullshit. Just show us.

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Don't forget about the lithp. :)

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Rob, now that is homophobic.

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But see that is all you people have!

I think you all, each and every one of you recognize from my volume of posts about my blackjack play and experiences that I know what the fuck I am talking about. You don't want to acknowledge that because of some hatred from things not even related to any gambling experiences so you troll and make up lies about stupid 3rd grade shit like this.

I don't have a lisp (nor like musicals, nor shopping for that matter). I am not homeless or a male prostitute, nor had a sugar daddy. That this is where you people feel the need to go with your trolling reveals more about you than me.

I can't fix your stupidity, inadequacies, nor insecurities.

Wow how did I miss that clear public documentation.

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Wow how did I miss that clear public documentation.

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Fucktard, these conversations, some private weren't about proving anything (in this case something that hadn't even come up) to you trolls. they were conversation, among several players discussion our strategies for making our picks.

Nothing ever changes on this forum. Just trolls dominating and trolling.

If I was trying to impress or make something up as you fucktards are suggestion, ok, +25 after 2 weeks. How do you explain down to +1 after 5 weeks? Morons!

FraudJ is the GOAT. This is like Redietz.. it has been documented BUT ..yadda yadda you can't see/find it.

How did we guess .... Although a 1/20 shot out the gate isn't particularly unlikely but when combined with the sum of Kewl and his insistence about his receiving settlement money in connection with this new found sports betting - it virtually guarantees this to be horseshit.

Yea, he didn't set out to do it.. but he is the one who made both the claim of the longshot and the claim it was documented. We know latter is not true so why is former to be believed.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

...a 1/20 shot out the gate isn't particularly unlikely...

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No, it isn't: hello, variance.

KJ makes a claim, you call bullshit, and really, WGAS: life goes on.

Why do we allow ourselves to get so seemingly worked up over insubstantial issues, when in fact there are real issues we should and could be addressing?

DING DING DING...the answer is: we do it to escape reality, even if only for a moment.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

...a 1/20 shot out the gate isn't particularly unlikely...

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No, it isn't: hello, variance.

KJ makes a claim, you call bullshit, and really, WGAS: life goes on.

Why do we allow ourselves to get so seemingly worked up over insubstantial issues, when in fact there are real issues we should and could be addressing?

DING DING DING...the answer is: we do it to escape reality, even if only for a moment.

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The really telling thing is that I post I won a net 25 wagers over the first 2 weeks and everyone jumps up and down screaming and yelling.

But I also posted that I lost a net 24 wagers over the next 3 week's and not a peep.

I have experience this similar thing all along the way if my sharing my blackjack experiences and results. I report a week where I won 20k, way over expectation and everyone screams and jumps up and down. A month kater, I report a shitty week that I lost 20k and not a peep.

These are people that 1) usually have no clue how variance works or 2) are just fucking trolling.

Either way, they are people not to be taken seriously. That is not why they are here.they are here to play games.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

...a 1/20 shot out the gate isn't particularly unlikely...

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No, it isn't: hello, variance.

KJ makes a claim, you call bullshit, and really, WGAS: life goes on.

Why do we allow ourselves to get so seemingly worked up over insubstantial issues, when in fact there are real issues we should and could be addressing?

DING DING DING...the answer is: we do it to escape reality, even if only for a moment.

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Lol variance. Sure. I didn't rule out as much. Just tired of this guy mucking up threads. I'd rather real gamblers talk about things gambling or everyone troll each other.

Just like.. uhm... convenient. Like always. And he has to tie it back into his settlement. He needs to have a blog.. and stop being on here trying to convince everyone with nonsense. It gets old.


What are the real issues we should be addressing on here? This should be great.....

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by MisterV

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

...a 1/20 shot out the gate isn't particularly unlikely...

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No, it isn't: hello, variance.

KJ makes a claim, you call bullshit, and really, WGAS: life goes on.

Why do we allow ourselves to get so seemingly worked up over insubstantial issues, when in fact there are real issues we should and could be addressing?

DING DING DING...the answer is: we do it to escape reality, even if only for a moment.

---

The really telling thing is that I post I won a net 25 wagers over the first 2 weeks and everyone jumps up and down screaming and yelling.

But I also posted that I lost a net 24 wagers over the next 3 week's and not a peep.

I have experience this similar thing all along the way if my sharing my blackjack experiences and results. I report a week where I won 20k, way over expectation and everyone screams and jumps up and down. A month kater, I report a shitty week that I lost 20k and not a peep.

These are people that 1) usually have no clue how variance works or 2) are just fucking trolling.

Either way, they are people not to be taken seriously. That is not why they are here.they are here to play games.

---

Ok fair enough .. and where did you claim you lost 24 wagers? I assume it was before someone called you out and not as a reaction. No?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

What are the real issues we should be addressing on here? This should be great.....

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It makes no sense to address real issues on this board.

Rather we should address issues by engaging ourselves physically and financially in seeking changes to policies / things we disagree with.

Get political; "think globally, act locally."

"Actions speak louder than words."

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

What are the real issues we should be addressing on here? This should be great.....

---

It makes no sense to address real issues on this board.

Rather we should address issues by engaging ourselves physically and financially in seeking changes to policies / things we disagree with.

Get political; "think globally, act locally."

"Actions speak louder than words."

---

good grief how much weed have you smoked. I smoke and sit around making posts that crack me up.. you just go off the deep end. Sure we should all go out and volunteer instead of holding KewlJ accountable for his bs. Very good point there.

If we don't though push back it won't stop. It'll just grow and grow and grow. The guy is obviously a lunatic and is being treated little differently than he has treated others. Tasha is kinda funny even if she makes shit up. Kewl is just tedious. If you're some guy wanting gambling101 lessons then sure he might be your thing.

Repaired your post, MrV. I got some pretty darn good words in with the judges, the other day. Was pretty darn interesting what happened next. Ha.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

"Actions speak louder than words; or, words speak louder than actions."

---

--->

Swedish Hotel and Restaurant Workers' Union.

Swedish Hotel and Restaurant Workers Union.

https://anagram-solver.net/%22Action...2?partial=true


P.S. Half of my anagrams are coming out as Sweden. Strange shit.


Gottlob1 Gottlob1 is online now
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Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Ok fair enough .. and where did you claim you lost 24 wagers? I assume it was before someone called you out and not as a reaction. No?

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YES. That was definitely things I shared in this very thread each week. I am not going to post. You look. Mickeycrimm, you have been following along. I know I am not your favorite person, but you can't chime in here?

After week 2 I was +25 net wins. And that was following angles by other people. Not some great thing I did.

After week 3, I was up 13 net wins After week 4 up 7 or 8 and after week 5 up1 net wins. And after week 6 back up 7 units.

I am saying net wins, because it is not units because the vig from the losses reduces it a bit.

So AinQ, your big issue is that I mentioned settlement money. I am sorry I did. This has nothing to do with that really. I have about 40k tied up in this (far less than my settlement money) and I would have done this without having received the settlement this year. This is something I have been thinking about for a while, but my discomfort with online books for anything but small amounts has prevented me from "jumping". That Axel and others are comfortable with online books finally pushed me to "jump". Now we will see how that works out. :D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

good grief how much weed have you smoked. I smoke and sit around making posts that crack me up.. you just go off the deep end. Sure we should all go out and volunteer instead of holding KewlJ accountable for his bs. Very good point there.

---

No weed yet, just coffee.

Sorry if I didn't make my point clear.

This board is not the place to address the "real issues" of the world today: that is what I am saying.

It's okay to address what I'll call "unreal issues," or perhaps "issues that are as important as a fart in a hurricane" such as: does KJ have a sugar daddy, does dawg own a mansion, or does Robert pack an anaconda in his pants?

We dabble here in the unreal in the hope of escaping the real.

I honestly don't care about the non gambling claims, including Mdawgs non-Mansion. What made the mansion thing so interesting is that when caught in that lie, he tried to scrub any mention of it from view. :D That right there told you everything you need know about everything else.

I have been much more concerned with things like a $100-$5000 spread playing double deck blackjack for 10 straight hours winning 60K. (a claim btw, even Wizard eventually got around to calling out).

Or winning 50 straight blackjack hands. Give me a break! :D

Or really just the totality of winning millions over a 4 year period, while being comped over a 1000 nights of high end suites and patted on the back. This is bizarro world stuff. Right up there with "special plays" and machines telepathing hot and cold cycles.

Should this stuff not be called out? Are we just supposed to ignore this and say nothing? :confused:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

DING DING DING ...

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

We dabble here in the unreal in the hope of escaping the real.

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---> Population Register Centre (Finland).

https://anagram-solver.net/%20We%20d...0?partial=true

Quote:

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The Population Register Centre (Finnish: Väestörekisterikeskus, VRK) is a Finnish government agency, which provides demographic information services for Finnish citizens, public administrations, businesses and communities, as well as polling services for elections. The VRK was established in 1969*1 ---> 19691 ---> 1961_1691, and is under direct control of Finnish Ministry of Finance.

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MrV, you're a "saint"! Ha. Can't believe I made it back to Finland.

Quote:

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In this translation, "evildoer" is a mark of having pitted oneself against God by their disposition. While "sinner" can mean this, use of the word more often emphasizes that everyone has sinned, but is not necessarily irredeemable. Therefore, I would suppose that "evildoer" would be a sufficient antonym for "saint."

---

Today, 07:03 PM#1160
Gottlob1 Gottlob1 is online now
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Holy crap, get a load of those numerals!

https://youtu.be/bP6B9HttRI8

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ozzy

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Guys that think they are "middleing" experts think they can read how the public will bet. If they see a line on Monday Morning that they think the public is going to bet heavy on one side moving the line, they immediately bet it and wait for that line change.

Now the line has to change a decent amount for middling to work. Moving a half point or even a point doesn't create much of a middling opportunity. So if it ends up the line doesn't move or doesn't move as much as they thought it would, then they have just blindly bet on one side @ -EV (the vig). So if you are doing this middling thing you better be right about what you think the public is going to bet.

Of all the sports betting strategies, I think this is a tough one. Real slim, narrow edge if you are right, more often than not.

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Since you read forums as much as anyone on here - where is data that shows the EV of various middles?

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Wrong AIQ. He NEVER reads PFA, has NEVER had an account there( not in question) and has NO CLUE who Chrissy Kyle Prescott Mitchell is. He ALWAYS tells the truth. How dare you say that about the UNKOOL1!!

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Isn’t this him? The number one professional gambler in the world.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Ok fair enough .. and where did you claim you lost 24 wagers? I assume it was before someone called you out and not as a reaction. No?

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YES. That was definitely things I shared in this very thread each week. I am not going to post. You look. Mickeycrimm, you have been following along. I know I am not your favorite person, but you can't chime in here?

After week 2 I was +25 net wins. And that was following angles by other people. Not some great thing I did.

After week 3, I was up 13 net wins After week 4 up 7 or 8 and after week 5 up1 net wins. And after week 6 back up 7 units.

I am saying net wins, because it is not units because the vig from the losses reduces it a bit.

So AinQ, your big issue is that I mentioned settlement money. I am sorry I did. This has nothing to do with that really. I have about 40k tied up in this (far less than my settlement money) and I would have done this without having received the settlement this year. This is something I have been thinking about for a while, but my discomfort with online books for anything but small amounts has prevented me from "jumping". That Axel and others are comfortable with online books finally pushed me to "jump". Now we will see how that works out. :D

---

My guess is these losing picks were posted past game if at all. It is most likely a whole fabrication of events that you have crafted to demonstrate some variance related point to prove to everyone you're a legitimate +EV gambler.

It is always about you being about the math. The fact that you shot up and back down should not be surprising. TBH I don't pay enough attention to you to know where you are at in this stuff. I know you're just here to show us all the math behind it. THe math adds up! It must be true! People believe me! Just tiresome man. So obvious this pivot. People here don't really seem to care. Mister V? Sure. No one else though. Aren't there other forums? Oh yea, other forums are full of bullshitters or you've been banned from them.

Anyway.. ugh. Whatever. Kewl why don't you just stick to grinding blackjack.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Anyway.. ugh. Whatever. Kewl why don't you just stick to grinding blackjack.

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Are you assuming I don't play blackjack anymore?

Don't assume dude. I play every weekend. Having a pretty good and somewhat interesting year. I just don't talk about it much. No reason too. Sharing my experiences has only created problems for me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Anyway.. ugh. Whatever. Kewl why don't you just stick to grinding blackjack.

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Are you assuming I don't play blackjack anymore?

Don't assume dude. I play every weekend. Having a pretty good and somewhat interesting year. I just don't talk about it much. No reason too. Sharing my experiences has only created problems for me.

---

I don't assume anything about your blackjack play. Maybe you do it to some degree. Who knows. I am referring to your posting. About grinding out blackjack. This whole sharing your betting results to demonstrate "the math" is insufferable. Just by the nature of how it works. You don't say "Oh I hit a 16 for 21 3 times in a row" and then ... blah blah. With this sports betting stuff you are causing us to suffer the equivalent.

Over at GF I challenged redietz to post up the error in the math of KJ's claims. Redietz would have loved to rub my nose in it so I know he went looking for it, but he couldn't identify the error. I gave him plenty of chances to post it. He wouldn't so I finally revealed it to him in this post I just made over at GA:

"redietz, it's obvious you can't see the discrepency in KJ's win/loss numbers. You've ignored putting the answer up here. And it's obvious that after I challenged you, you then went looking for the error so you could post it up here and rub my nose in it. But you couldn't find the discrepency. So I will expose it to you now.

As you know, KJ's first claim was he was 25 games above .500.

His next claim, just a few posts later was his actual record was 56-31.

He repeated both claims numerous times.

And you went on and on about "25 games above .500" and "25 wins up" in several posts. But you never caught on to the error.

KJ was 25 wins ahead (56 minus 31 = 25) but he was not 25 games above .500

Thru 87 picks, batting .500 would be 43.5 wins and 43.5 losses.

Since KJ could not be 12.5 games above .500, he was either 12 or 13 games above .500.

With your self-confessed training in gambling math and probability I'm surprised you didn't see it. No, stunned is a better word."

Actually, I think the terminology I first used was +25 in wins or something like that. But I did use 25 games above .500 a number of times as well and that was my bad. I should have known better if for no other reason, that I am a baseball fan and when a team finishes 87-75 they are not 12 games above .500, they are 6 games above .500 (.500 would be 81-81). I think everyone knew what I mean. I guess mickey is saying that because redietz holds himself out to be such a math expert, he should have spotted this. To me that is minor, but I will leave that to them to hash out.

To me a bigger issue is that redietz was over at GF sniping at me from a far, which I didn't even know until mickey pointed out. It is one thing if he was banned from this forum or something, but he is not. He is just embarrassed to post here. But if he had something to say, he should have said it here in the thread that I posted whatever he found objectionable. But I guess I shouldn't care. People do whatever they need to do to make themselves feel better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

You don't say "Oh I hit a 16 for 21 3 times in a row" and then ... blah blah.

---

Why would I talk about individual hands. There is nothing unusual or remarkable about any of them. I have seen them all about a million times. One of Mdawg gripes is that I don't mention individual hands as well. You taking talking points from him?

Let me see if I can accommodate you fools. Thinking back, last weekend I had a 19 vs dealer 10. She turned over a 7 and I won. EXCITING SHIT!!! Another hand I did draw a 4 card 21 vs dealer 7. He turned over a 6 and 8 for a push. OMG!!!! How unusual....NOT! Later I doubled my 10 vs dealer 8. I drew a 3 for 13. Dealer turned over a 6 and then another 8. I won my double down with a 13. How very unusual!! NOT!!! These things and every other hand imaginable happens a million times. But whatever. I hope this satisfies you fools.

The point is that you telling us how many bets you are up or down is the equivalent. Sperm for brains, you made my point for me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

The point is that you telling us how many bets you are up or down is the equivalent. Sperm for brains, you made my point for me.

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You really are a fucking idiot (and liar). Stating that I was up 25 wagers, or +25 wagers or whatever terminology I used was not about bragging or anything. It was simply stating that hey the several angles I used, some only good for the first 2 weeks, worked well. I was off to a good start. My goal was to break even or close to it as I worked through the rollover, so +25 after 2 weeks was a good start. A nice little cushion.

Why do you try to make things into more than they are?

At this point anyone who thinks FraudJ represents anything truthfully or factually correct is a fool.....RIP

Finally, I got one of those "register of historic places" to fit something. Ha. Can't say how many times that those came up. Just slip the otherwise unused u in there. Ha.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

At this point anyone who thinks FraudJ represents anything truthfully or factually correct is a fool.....RIP

---

---> National Register of Historic Places in Roulette County, North Dakota.

https://anagram-solver.net/%20%20%20...0?partial=true


Oops. Oh, well. KJ's down to roulette.

And, not too far down on the list is, "History of water supply and sanitation in the State of Palestine."

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

At this point anyone who thinks FraudJ represents anything truthfully or factually correct is a fool.....RIP

---

MaxPen, what have you ever shared on any forum that benefited someone? I know you are a successful AP or were or whatever. I am not questioning that, but what have you ever posted that benefited someone else?

All you have EVER done is sit back and attack and snipe at people you decide you don't like.

You have every right to not want to share anything. Lots of AP's take that position. But if all you do is snipe and attack, then all you are doing is trolling. THAT is your sole purpose on forums.

I share my experiences living and playing Vegas as a mid-level card counter AP. Sometimes I have an opinion or say something wrong. And sometimes I can't be completely honest about what I do. But at least I am not here doing NOTHING but trolling.

Whenever UNKewLyingJ starts off with "I am a professional...." or "I share my experiences...." it means he's getting ready with some REALLY weak lies.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

At this point anyone who thinks FraudJ represents anything truthfully or factually correct is a fool.....RIP

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MaxPen, what have you ever shared on any forum that benefited someone? I know you are a successful AP or were or whatever. I am not questioning that, but what have you ever posted that benefited someone else?

All you have EVER done is sit back and attack and snipe at people you decide you don't like.

You have every right to not want to share anything. Lots of AP's take that position. But if all you do is snipe and attack, then all you are doing is trolling. THAT is your sole purpose on forums.

I share my experiences living and playing Vegas as a mid-level card counter AP. Sometimes I have an opinion or say something wrong. And sometimes I can't be completely honest about what I do. But at least I am not here doing NOTHING but trolling.

---

I asked a question once and I believe it was MaxPen who kinda gave me real info in a PM. I have no reason to not believe him. You on the other hand have nothing but fake info you that you fill in the cracks between your bullshit with. It is all regurgitated shit you read on the forums.

You lied when you said you weren't going to post here anymore.. that shit can't even last a day or more.

What is your malfunction that you need so much attention?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

All you have EVER done is sit back and attack and snipe at people you decide you don't like.

---

For many of us attacking and sniping at people we don't like is why we continue to post here and on other forums.

We join originally because of interest in the subject matter but soon become transfixed / mesmerized by the ongoing train wrecks unfolding before our eyes.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Punkcity

As stated you’re a slow moving car wreck. I got beer and popcorn, I love watching you unravel.

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Hey dawg, you DO realize that you're the lead engineer guiding this Crazy Train as it veers dramatically and erratically across the Mojave Desert?

Casey Jones with a Rolex?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Punkcity

As stated you’re a slow moving car wreck. I got beer and popcorn, I love watching you unravel.

---

---> Toronto and Scarboro' Electric Railway, Light and Power Company.

https://anagram-solver.net/As%20stat....?partial=true


Yeah, just up the road from Kitchener. I lived in Toronto, for a few years, particularly, in Scarboro, as well. Already had some popcorn, this morning, and, the beer was in a previous post. Ha. Oh, and here's another.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Hey dawg, you DO realize that you're the lead engineer guiding this Crazy Train as it veers dramatically and erratically across the Mojave Desert? Casey Jones with a Rolex?

---

---> Magnetically Accelerated Ring to Achieve Ultra-high Directed Energy and Radiation.

https://anagram-solver.net/Heydawgyo...x?partial=true

Quote:

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MARAUDER (Magnetically Accelerated Ring to Achieve Ultra-high Directed Energy and Radiation) was a United States Air Force Research Laboratory project concerning the development of a coaxial plasma railgun.

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Hey dawg, you DO realize that you're the lead engineer guiding this Crazy Train as it veers dramatically and erratically across the Mojave Desert?

Casey Jones with a Rolex?

---

A Rolex that smells of crack whore vagina for some into inexplicable reason.

MaxPen beat the grass until the UNKewl snake came out and admitted that he lied about the lawsuit, and that his screen name was never in any casino database. That led to the UNKewlJ admission that he had lied about his gay marriage and never had any soul mate.

AccountInQuestion unearthed the lies about the shuffler and all this tax reporting nonsense UNKewlJ tried to feed to us.

Ray Finkle pointed out the oily surfboard lie.

Along the way many, including MickeyCrimm, Ozzy, blackhole, Tasha, punkcity, soxfan, monet, mcap, smurgerburger, jbjb, Mission146 and AxelWolf have stated that UNKewlJ is no longer believable about much of anything.

RobSinger and coach belly have been pointing out that UNKewlJ is a liar from Day One, and Gottlob, among others, presented us with some theories as to what sort of person UNKewlJ is, and why he lies so much.

And Dan Druff wrapped it all up with statements including

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You're definitely someone who isn't adverse to lying on forums if it suits you to do so.

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So I wouldn't say that any one person engineered any of this. UNKewlJ did it to himself.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coach belly

This is an epic beatdown, you have absolutely no support...who would have expected the forum to unite like this?

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I think that V wonders how far he can spread it, that there are so many fools here. Ha.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MDawg

So I wouldn't say that any one person engineered any of this.

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Ah, but it is YOU that continues to beat the DRUMS OF DAMNATION.

You are relentless in your attacks, while seemingly oblivious or uncaring of the fact that most if not all of us dismiss your brags of casino conquest as the ravings of a loon.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MDawg

MaxPen beat the grass until the UNKewl snake came out and admitted that he lied about the lawsuit, and that his screen name was ever in any casino database. That led to the UNKewlJ admission that he had lied about his gay marriage and never had any soul mate.

AccountInQuestion unearthed the lies about the shuffler and all this tax reporting nonsense UNKewlJ tried to feed to us.

Ray Finkle pointed out the oily surfboard lie.

---

As you always do you are conflating and just flat out making up things to suit yourself and whatever phony narrative you are pushing as part of an agenda to discredit someone because they dared call out your bullshit claims.

AinQ proved nothing! Absolutely nothing. He has an opinion. That is all. What is the saying...opinions are like assholes, everybody has one.

Finkle and the surfboard is silliness. It is a nothing story about nothing. I simply shared what we did in Daytona beach area 25 years ago as far as oiling our boards the night before applying wax. If that is no longer a thing or never was a thing outside our localized area and group, so be it. I never claimed to be a surfing savant. It was a hobby as a kid 25 years ago!

As far as Maxpen, the lawsuit deflect was never intended for MaxPen. I had no idea he would be involved. It was designed for YOU Mdouche. To lead you into searching court records and away what I didn't want anyone to see., some identification revealing information. There were a few people here in Vegas that I though might come across the information/story, but I thought they would be discreate, maybe mention it in private if at all. It was YOU and maybe a few others but mainly YOU that I didn't want to see the information and further dox me, and guess what? It worked. Maybe not exactly as intended and maybe I had to go through a lot of shit, but it did exactly what I intended. Stayed ahead of YOU.

I am actually sorry Maxpen got involved. NOT because he revealed there was no lawsuit. But because it has lead to further bad blood between us and I always liked Maxpen. But it is what it is. He seems to enjoy the drama and fighting. I guess I am the guy he fights with now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Then, when the forum userbase turns out to be smarter than he expected and disproves some of them, we get the mea culpa that he wasn't telling the truth all along.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MDawg

So I wouldn't say that any one person engineered any of this.

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---

Quote:

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The bad behavior of the richest: what I learned from wealth managers

The clients of this Geneva-based wealth manager also “believe that they are descended from the pharaohs, and that they were destined to inherit the earth”.

If a poor person voiced such beliefs, he or she might well be institutionalized; for those who work with the wealthy, however, such “eccentricities” are all in a day’s work. Indeed, an underappreciated irony of accelerating economic inequality has been the way it has exposed behaviors among the ultra-rich that mirror the supposed “pathologies” of the ultra-poor.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ome-inequality

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

All you have EVER done is sit back and attack and snipe at people you decide you don't like.

---

For many of us attacking and sniping at people we don't like is why we continue to post here and on other forums.

We join originally because of interest in the subject matter but soon become transfixed / mesmerized by the ongoing train wrecks unfolding before our eyes.

---

I have given many on here shit but thats the charm of this place. I've given up critiquing Tableplay/Monet's videos. I don't really bring up Trump anymore. Singer and I go back and forth a bit but shrug. Redietz was a whole different ballgame. He is much like Kewl. Full of it.

Ultimately though I quit pestering most of these people. Usually it comes to an end because they're just characters who express opinions. If I want boring crap with uninteresting messages I'd go lurk on WOV. Probably a better place to learn about gambling for most people anyway.

And don't call FraudJ a trainwreck.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I should have known better if for no other reason, that I am a baseball fan and when a team finishes 87-75 they are not 12 games above .500, they are 6 games above .500

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LOL...say what?

This is next level bullshit... have you no shame?

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I should have known better if for no other reason, that I am a baseball fan and when a team finishes 87-75 they are not 12 games above .500, they are 6 games above .500

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LOL...say what?

This is next level bullshit... have you no shame?

---

Drugs, coach. The bane of the younger generation. And the bane of alcoholics of all ages.

We are dealing with revolutionaries, coach. Revolutionaries with drugs.

Seventy-five years of coaching and sports reporting are no match for the keen insights of VCT's "APs." They own the language. They create their own language. They own the math. They create their own math. When the New York Times and Gaming Today are both proven to be guilty of incorrect reporting by the VCT "APs," you know drugs must be the root of the problem.

I could not have written a better indictment of the expertise on these forums. Really. I have never seen self-petard hanging of alleged expertise as comical as this. If I said "APs" were going to come up with this, who would have believed me?

JUST SAY NO, boys.

Carry on. No, wait, wait. Let's figure out the EV of the games over .500. LOL.

Thank God these posts are forever.

And thank God this thread is "professional sports betting." Imagine if it were "Amateur."

If a football team has played 12 games, @ 6-6 they would be .500. @ 8-4, they would be 2 games over .500

A bigger question is why Redeitz feels the need to return, calling people names?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Drugs, coach. The bane of the younger generation. And the bane of alcoholics of all ages. We are dealing with revolutionaries, coach. Revolutionaries with drugs."

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Drugs don't kill gambling math; people kill gambling math.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

If a football team has played 12 games, @ 6-6 they would be .500. @ 8-4, they would be 2 games over .500

A bigger question is why Redeitz feels the need to return, calling people names?

---

Coach, I step aside. I cannot do this justice. Please feel free to let me know how it turns out. This is embarrassing.

Ok, so returning home after the crappy Phils game, I looked up this "games over .500" argument on the internet as redietz suggested. It appears to be one of the arguements that there are credible sources and people arguing both sides. And I can even see both sides of the argument, so I see no sense in wasting too much time on it, other than I will again say if 6-6 is .500, and I don't think anyone will argue that, the winning two more games and being 8-4 is 2 games above .500.

But really this doesn't even matter. This argument originated from that discussion of my first two weeks of sports betting, where I wagered 87 games in the first two weeks winning 56 and losing 31. Red's initial comments were that was a 1000-1 shot or chance of happening. I guess he forgot that last year picking only NFL games both Dan Druff and Rob Singer (however unlikely that was) were both +23 games at one point in the season. So it obviously isn't the long shot that Red claimed.

So I am not going to argue with Redietz about what amounts to terminology. And I am not even going to keep dwelling on that start I had. We are now entering week 7 and I am only +8 (actually back up to +8 after dropping all the way back from that +25 start to +1). I am not going to keep arguing over the good start the first 2 weeks betting several angles that panned out. I am more focused on trying to get through the next 2-3 weeks and complete my rollover requirements while staying above or at .500

More and more it is obvious there is someone that wants to argue almost anything I say now. If I say the sky is blue or the grass green, I will get an argument from someone.

What a bunch of malarky. You completely fuck something up, claim people see it "both ways," then claim victimhood.

I will bet half of MDawg's net worth that you will not find a sports column in the last 50 years that describes 8-4 as "two games over .500." LOL.

You just can't say, "I didn't know what the hell I was talking about." Because why? It would damage your blackjack rep? Your gambling rep?

You know, I'll be sitting at a men's book club meeting next Friday, with reporters in the audience, fielding questions about Billy Walters and the Computer Group. There is literally nowhere to hide. I have to be able to give real answers to real questions from real people. This forum stuff is almost entirely a clown act. Maybe I'll tell the reporters and the people in the club who taught college math that, yeah, I post in a professional sports betting forum and "8-4 is two games over .500." That'll be well received.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjBkcesw0P0

When you are speaking to your book club audience about your sports betting expertise, will you be mentioning how you are such a great sports better and have been for 40 years racking up tons of money that you couldn't even pay a measly $500 tax bill and are delinquent? :confused:

That would be one hell of a selling point for your sports betting expertise and whatever the hell you are trying to sell this week. :rolleyes:

When did Mickey or whomever apologize to Redietz? What did I miss?

REDietz, both you and AccountInQuestion have laid down more than enough evidence to establish that UNKewlJ is lying once again - fabricating all these sports bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MDawg

Guess who said this UNKewlJ?

He's pretty much a pathological liar you can't believe anything he says. But also probably a sociopath and they have no guilt no shame no embarrassment. They simply make up lies to cover the other lies.

Could it be perhaps that well known AP you used to think is on your side?

But it was so well said I decided to just adopt it for myself.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

I will bet half of MDawg's net worth that you will not find a sports column in the last 50 years that describes 8-4 as "two games over .500." LOL.

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Would you bet half of MDawg's net worth that you didn't refer to KJ's 56-31 record as "25 games above .500?"

I'm not a professional sports bettor. I'm just a lowly AP. But this is my take on KJ's rollover wager.

A 100K wager gets him 21K in bonuses.
Betting in $330 increments would mean 303 bets to clear the wager.

So what is the EV of what he is doing?

We will assign a 50% win rate on his wagers. Sure, the win rate could be way off on a small sample space but betting volume, 303 picks, the win rate is going to be close to 50%, or 151.5 wins.

So he makes a 100K wager.

The 151.5 wins will cash, at $630 each, for $95,445.

Add the bonuses to that and the number is $116,445

So the EXPECTED VALUE is $16,445, or expressed in percentage is 116.445%

Betting volume, 303 different games, to clear the wager is going to get KJ close to the 50% win rate. But we will assign a very conservative standard deviation of 5%. It's more likely just 1% or 2% but we'll go with 5%.

First, if the 5% deviation is positive it's all in KJ's favor. He'll make about 26K. If the deviation is 5% negative then his win will be only about 7K.

So with that large of a deviation KJ's expectated value should be somewhere between 7K and 26K. It's somewhere between slim and none that he doesn't land with the 5% deviation. More than likely he will come in pretty close to 16K.

The angles KJ uses to make his picks are, at best, helpful and, at worst, harmless.

KJ, let us know what your final numbers are.

Almost spot on mickeycrimm. My wagers are $300, as that is the max they will allow me to bet. I don't think that is the max for everybody, I think that is the max for me because they want to force the player to grind through that rollover requirement, thinking they will eat away at the bonus money.

My calculations were that it almost didn't matter how I made my picks as long as I didn't run really bad, I would make money. and that is basically a paraphrase of what Axelwolf said, which piqued my interest in the first place. So rather than rely on my own methods of picking like the ploppy sports bettor I have always been, I decided to try some techniques that had a track record of being successful. Things like Half Smoke's first two weeks NFL underdog play, Dan Druff's picks and the underdog +3.5, )7.5 plays.

In my mind there was no guarantee these past "trends" would win this year or going forward, but it was as least as good as any method of picking I could come up with. And it so happens they all did well again.

Add in the half juice Fridays on one of the sportsbooks I am using, and a little bit of cash back bonus on another book, (4 books in total), and I am hoping the return closer to 20k, unless I run bad the rest of the way which is only 3 weeks.

In the end I am not a professional sports bettor and never claimed to be. And I have lifetime results to prove that. :D I am an AP and one that other AP's often criticize for being a one trick pony. I read the sports betting discussions here for the past 6 months to a year and this seems like an advantage play, assuming you actually get paid, which will be the next hurdle.

Redietz, the great sports betting handicapper for the last 40 years, just apparently has a problem with APs, both in general and finding advantage plays in sports betting. But that really is his problem not ours. He just wants to keep crowing about what a great sports bet guy he has been for 40 years and linking himself to Billy Waters, every chance he gets. I don't doubt some of that, but don't care all that much either. I am just applying some advantage play activities, which I am calling "bonus whoring". Not even sure if that is the right term. Don't care. I found something (thanks to discussion here) I believe plays at an advantage and am doing it. I don't really care if Redietz feelings are hurt. I think that is weird. But isn't most things with this guy. :confused: