Professional Sportsbetting

[Gottlob1]

I think that V wonders how far he can spread it, that there are so many fools here. Ha.

[MisterV]

So I wouldn't say that any one person engineered any of this.

Ah, but it is YOU that continues to beat the DRUMS OF DAMNATION.

You are relentless in your attacks, while seemingly oblivious or uncaring of the fact that most if not all of us dismiss your brags of casino conquest as the ravings of a loon.

[kewlJ]

MaxPen beat the grass until the UNKewl snake came out and admitted that he lied about the lawsuit, and that his screen name was ever in any casino database. That led to the UNKewlJ admission that he had lied about his gay marriage and never had any soul mate.

AccountInQuestion unearthed the lies about the shuffler and all this tax reporting nonsense UNKewlJ tried to feed to us.

Ray Finkle pointed out the oily surfboard lie.

As you always do you are conflating and just flat out making up things to suit yourself and whatever phony narrative you are pushing as part of an agenda to discredit someone because they dared call out your bullshit claims.

AinQ proved nothing! Absolutely nothing. He has an opinion. That is all. What is the saying...opinions are like assholes, everybody has one.

Finkle and the surfboard is silliness. It is a nothing story about nothing. I simply shared what we did in Daytona beach area 25 years ago as far as oiling our boards the night before applying wax. If that is no longer a thing or never was a thing outside our localized area and group, so be it. I never claimed to be a surfing savant. It was a hobby as a kid 25 years ago!

As far as Maxpen, the lawsuit deflect was never intended for MaxPen. I had no idea he would be involved. It was designed for YOU Mdouche. To lead you into searching court records and away what I didn't want anyone to see., some identification revealing information. There were a few people here in Vegas that I though might come across the information/story, but I thought they would be discreate, maybe mention it in private if at all. It was YOU and maybe a few others but mainly YOU that I didn't want to see the information and further dox me, and guess what? It worked. Maybe not exactly as intended and maybe I had to go through a lot of shit, but it did exactly what I intended. Stayed ahead of YOU.

I am actually sorry Maxpen got involved. NOT because he revealed there was no lawsuit. But because it has lead to further bad blood between us and I always liked Maxpen. But it is what it is. He seems to enjoy the drama and fighting. I guess I am the guy he fights with now.

[MDawg]

Then, when the forum userbase turns out to be smarter than he expected and disproves some of them, we get the mea culpa that he wasn't telling the truth all along.

[Gottlob1]

So I wouldn't say that any one person engineered any of this.

The bad behavior of the richest: what I learned from wealth managers

The clients of this Geneva-based wealth manager also “believe that they are descended from the pharaohs, and that they were destined to inherit the earth”.

If a poor person voiced such beliefs, he or she might well be institutionalized; for those who work with the wealthy, however, such “eccentricities” are all in a day’s work. Indeed, an underappreciated irony of accelerating economic inequality has been the way it has exposed behaviors among the ultra-rich that mirror the supposed “pathologies” of the ultra-poor.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ome-inequality

Gottlob1
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[accountinquestion]

All you have EVER done is sit back and attack and snipe at people you decide you don't like.

For many of us attacking and sniping at people we don't like is why we continue to post here and on other forums.

We join originally because of interest in the subject matter but soon become transfixed / mesmerized by the ongoing train wrecks unfolding before our eyes.

I have given many on here shit but thats the charm of this place. I've given up critiquing Tableplay/Monet's videos. I don't really bring up Trump anymore. Singer and I go back and forth a bit but shrug. Redietz was a whole different ballgame. He is much like Kewl. Full of it.

Ultimately though I quit pestering most of these people. Usually it comes to an end because they're just characters who express opinions. If I want boring crap with uninteresting messages I'd go lurk on WOV. Probably a better place to learn about gambling for most people anyway.

And don't call FraudJ a trainwreck.

[coach belly]

I should have known better if for no other reason, that I am a baseball fan and when a team finishes 87-75 they are not 12 games above .500, they are 6 games above .500

LOL...say what?

This is next level bullshit... have you no shame?

[redietz]

I should have known better if for no other reason, that I am a baseball fan and when a team finishes 87-75 they are not 12 games above .500, they are 6 games above .500

LOL...say what?

This is next level bullshit... have you no shame?

Drugs, coach. The bane of the younger generation. And the bane of alcoholics of all ages.

We are dealing with revolutionaries, coach. Revolutionaries with drugs.

Seventy-five years of coaching and sports reporting are no match for the keen insights of VCT's "APs." They own the language. They create their own language. They own the math. They create their own math. When the New York Times and Gaming Today are both proven to be guilty of incorrect reporting by the VCT "APs," you know drugs must be the root of the problem.

I could not have written a better indictment of the expertise on these forums. Really. I have never seen self-petard hanging of alleged expertise as comical as this. If I said "APs" were going to come up with this, who would have believed me?

JUST SAY NO, boys.

Carry on. No, wait, wait. Let's figure out the EV of the games over .500. LOL.

Thank God these posts are forever.

And thank God this thread is "professional sports betting." Imagine if it were "Amateur."

[kewlJ]

If a football team has played 12 games, @ 6-6 they would be .500. @ 8-4, they would be 2 games over .500

A bigger question is why Redeitz feels the need to return, calling people names?

[MisterV]

Drugs, coach. The bane of the younger generation. And the bane of alcoholics of all ages. We are dealing with revolutionaries, coach. Revolutionaries with drugs."

Drugs don't kill gambling math; people kill gambling math.

[redietz]

If a football team has played 12 games, @ 6-6 they would be .500. @ 8-4, they would be 2 games over .500

A bigger question is why Redeitz feels the need to return, calling people names?

Coach, I step aside. I cannot do this justice. Please feel free to let me know how it turns out. This is embarrassing.

[tableplay]

[kewlJ]

Ok, so returning home after the crappy Phils game, I looked up this "games over .500" argument on the internet as redietz suggested. It appears to be one of the arguements that there are credible sources and people arguing both sides. And I can even see both sides of the argument, so I see no sense in wasting too much time on it, other than I will again say if 6-6 is .500, and I don't think anyone will argue that, the winning two more games and being 8-4 is 2 games above .500.

But really this doesn't even matter. This argument originated from that discussion of my first two weeks of sports betting, where I wagered 87 games in the first two weeks winning 56 and losing 31. Red's initial comments were that was a 1000-1 shot or chance of happening. I guess he forgot that last year picking only NFL games both Dan Druff and Rob Singer (however unlikely that was) were both +23 games at one point in the season. So it obviously isn't the long shot that Red claimed.

So I am not going to argue with Redietz about what amounts to terminology. And I am not even going to keep dwelling on that start I had. We are now entering week 7 and I am only +8 (actually back up to +8 after dropping all the way back from that +25 start to +1). I am not going to keep arguing over the good start the first 2 weeks betting several angles that panned out. I am more focused on trying to get through the next 2-3 weeks and complete my rollover requirements while staying above or at .500

More and more it is obvious there is someone that wants to argue almost anything I say now. If I say the sky is blue or the grass green, I will get an argument from someone.

[redietz]

What a bunch of malarky. You completely fuck something up, claim people see it "both ways," then claim victimhood.

I will bet half of MDawg's net worth that you will not find a sports column in the last 50 years that describes 8-4 as "two games over .500." LOL.

You just can't say, "I didn't know what the hell I was talking about." Because why? It would damage your blackjack rep? Your gambling rep?

You know, I'll be sitting at a men's book club meeting next Friday, with reporters in the audience, fielding questions about Billy Walters and the Computer Group. There is literally nowhere to hide. I have to be able to give real answers to real questions from real people. This forum stuff is almost entirely a clown act. Maybe I'll tell the reporters and the people in the club who taught college math that, yeah, I post in a professional sports betting forum and "8-4 is two games over .500." That'll be well received.

[kewlJ]

When you are speaking to your book club audience about your sports betting expertise, will you be mentioning how you are such a great sports better and have been for 40 years racking up tons of money that you couldn't even pay a measly $500 tax bill and are delinquent?

That would be one hell of a selling point for your sports betting expertise and whatever the hell you are trying to sell this week.

[AxelWolf]

When did Mickey or whomever apologize to Redietz? What did I miss?

[MDawg]

REDietz, both you and AccountInQuestion have laid down more than enough evidence to establish that UNKewlJ is lying once again - fabricating all these sports bet.

Guess who said this UNKewlJ?

He's pretty much a pathological liar you can't believe anything he says. But also probably a sociopath and they have no guilt no shame no embarrassment. They simply make up lies to cover the other lies.

Could it be perhaps that well known AP you used to think is on your side?

But it was so well said I decided to just adopt it for myself.

[mickeycrimm]

I will bet half of MDawg's net worth that you will not find a sports column in the last 50 years that describes 8-4 as "two games over .500." LOL.

Would you bet half of MDawg's net worth that you didn't refer to KJ's 56-31 record as "25 games above .500?"

[mickeycrimm]

I'm not a professional sports bettor. I'm just a lowly AP. But this is my take on KJ's rollover wager.

A 100K wager gets him 21K in bonuses.
Betting in $330 increments would mean 303 bets to clear the wager.

So what is the EV of what he is doing?

We will assign a 50% win rate on his wagers. Sure, the win rate could be way off on a small sample space but betting volume, 303 picks, the win rate is going to be close to 50%, or 151.5 wins.

So he makes a 100K wager.

The 151.5 wins will cash, at $630 each, for $95,445.

Add the bonuses to that and the number is $116,445

So the EXPECTED VALUE is $16,445, or expressed in percentage is 116.445%

Betting volume, 303 different games, to clear the wager is going to get KJ close to the 50% win rate. But we will assign a very conservative standard deviation of 5%. It's more likely just 1% or 2% but we'll go with 5%.

First, if the 5% deviation is positive it's all in KJ's favor. He'll make about 26K. If the deviation is 5% negative then his win will be only about 7K.

So with that large of a deviation KJ's expectated value should be somewhere between 7K and 26K. It's somewhere between slim and none that he doesn't land with the 5% deviation. More than likely he will come in pretty close to 16K.

The angles KJ uses to make his picks are, at best, helpful and, at worst, harmless.

KJ, let us know what your final numbers are.

[kewlJ]

Almost spot on mickeycrimm. My wagers are $300, as that is the max they will allow me to bet. I don't think that is the max for everybody, I think that is the max for me because they want to force the player to grind through that rollover requirement, thinking they will eat away at the bonus money.

My calculations were that it almost didn't matter how I made my picks as long as I didn't run really bad, I would make money. and that is basically a paraphrase of what Axelwolf said, which piqued my interest in the first place. So rather than rely on my own methods of picking like the ploppy sports bettor I have always been, I decided to try some techniques that had a track record of being successful. Things like Half Smoke's first two weeks NFL underdog play, Dan Druff's picks and the underdog +3.5, )7.5 plays.

In my mind there was no guarantee these past "trends" would win this year or going forward, but it was as least as good as any method of picking I could come up with. And it so happens they all did well again.

Add in the half juice Fridays on one of the sportsbooks I am using, and a little bit of cash back bonus on another book, (4 books in total), and I am hoping the return closer to 20k, unless I run bad the rest of the way which is only 3 weeks.

In the end I am not a professional sports bettor and never claimed to be. And I have lifetime results to prove that. I am an AP and one that other AP's often criticize for being a one trick pony. I read the sports betting discussions here for the past 6 months to a year and this seems like an advantage play, assuming you actually get paid, which will be the next hurdle.

Redietz, the great sports betting handicapper for the last 40 years, just apparently has a problem with APs, both in general and finding advantage plays in sports betting. But that really is his problem not ours. He just wants to keep crowing about what a great sports bet guy he has been for 40 years and linking himself to Billy Waters, every chance he gets. I don't doubt some of that, but don't care all that much either. I am just applying some advantage play activities, which I am calling "bonus whoring". Not even sure if that is the right term. Don't care. I found something (thanks to discussion here) I believe plays at an advantage and am doing it. I don't really care if Redietz feelings are hurt. I think that is weird. But isn't most things with this guy.