Is Sports Betting AP Play?

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

C'mon, pussy. Take my bet. To chickenshit, eh? What a punk little bitch you are. You have never contributed anything meaningful to this forum and you never will. You just troll. That's all you know. What a small little man you are. I ignored your bullshit for a long time. But push has come to shove. You should be banned from this forum. You are turning it into a cesspool just like Singer did.

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Look, man, I would never offer a bet that I wouldn't take myself. You want to show how great you are, but fear that the next guy is better.

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My exact proposition to Argentino was I could take a $2000 bankroll at 8 AM and gamble it up to a $2500 bankroll by midnight. Are you saying you can do the same thing?

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Sure, why not? Without any angle(s), there is a 2,000/2,500 = 0.8 chance of turning $2,000 in $2,500.

Over a few bets, the HE is negligible. I wouldn't take Shacky's (shaky) advice for two-step progression betting - it's on his Odds site somewhere - and bet one-third of it, and the other two-thirds if lose that in an attempt to make more money than required. I'd bet $500, and then a $1000 if lose that, or try to rebuild by doubling the remaining $500 if lose the first two bets. The 3/4 chance of not losing both bets, plus the chance to recoup and try again.

At regular baccarat, though, I would have to factor in the commission on any banker bets won. And for fun wait till the last hands of shoes to pick a good one: lots of 2's and 3's for the player, and 7's and 8's for the banker. Maybe even the tie-bet if lots of face cards left. Or for one of those flashed or misplayed cards on a previous hand. Could happen. For sure, the blackjack AP-thing would be too risky over the course of just a single day. Or find a lesser HE on a different casino game where available. I would be leery about going to casino X on day Y. The casino and day would have to be picked somewhat at random. Somewhat typical playing conditions.

In any event, I have to figure that if you average only around $500 a normal day, as you used to say, then your chance of making $500 on any given day can't be too much better than 0.8 .

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

However I've NEVER had a profitable year gambling.

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Because you choose to play those -EV games (craps, 8/5 BP, etc.). And there is nothing wrong with that either.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

However I've NEVER had a profitable year gambling.

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Who really has? Mass, casino gambling is about the appearance of a chance to win. What the players think they know is pure baloney put or left there by much shrewder souls than them. Billions in research, and decades of empirical findings versus a few flighty and touchy-feely persons on a few ever-dying internet message boards.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

However I've NEVER had a profitable year gambling.

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And there is nothing wrong with that either.

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You are correct...there is absolutely nothing wrong with recreational gambling (and losing), If you are enjoying it. And Alan will tell you that he does enjoy recreational ambling and is ok with losing. BUT then he has this very obvious agenda, this obsession with attempting to discredit and belittle those that win. Every single thing he posts is either a direct attack or some little snide (sneaky) attack and attempt to belittle AP's. It is a typical bully mentality off attempting to tear others down, to make yourself feel better. It's nauseating.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

Who really has? Mass, casino gambling is about the appearance of a chance to win. What the players think they know is pure baloney put or left there by much shrewder souls than them. Billions in research, and decades of empirical findings versus a few flighty and touchy-feely persons on a few ever-dying internet message boards.

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There is one big problem with this fantasy world view. The casino industry spends...I don't know what, 10's of millions, hundreds of millions, maybe billions of dollars on the fight against AP's. Everything from the latest expensive technology, man hours, consultants, seminars, data base subscriptions. Do you really think that it is all in their head that some players (AP's) are able to win? :rolleyes:

The funny (sad-funny) thing is they spend a hundred times more in prevention than AP's actually take....they easily spend a dollar for every cent AP's cut into their profit.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

Who really has? Mass, casino gambling is about the appearance of a chance to win. What the players think they know is pure baloney put or left there by much shrewder souls than them. Billions in research, and decades of empirical findings versus a few flighty and touchy-feely persons on a few ever-dying internet message boards.

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There is one big problem with this fantasy world view. The casino industry spends...I don't know what, 10's of millions, hundreds of millions, maybe billions of dollars on the fight against AP's. Everything from the latest expensive technology, man hours, consultants, seminars, data base subscriptions. Do you really think that it is all in their head that some players (AP's) are able to win? :rolleyes:

The funny (sad-funny) thing is they spend a hundred times more in prevention than AP's actually take....they easily spend a dollar for every cent AP's cut into their profit.

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I ask about really winning something. Not just the money.

There are a number of ways I could answer your question, now, but another came to me, this morning, after I wrote about "greater fools" who back poker players. (A lot of rich guys have this fantasy view of poker players as infallible or professional or something. A "secret agent" player or something on their side.)

Has there ever been an AP blackjack player with a rich backer? Surely, if there's considerable interest on capital to be made, bankers would be into it, too. And you guys would have access to your own limitless resources to counter those of the casinos.

Sometimes, the promise of more brings a lot less.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

Has there ever been an AP blackjack player with a rich backer? Surely, if there's considerable interest on capital to be made, bankers would be into it, too.

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Ahh..yeah. It's pretty common, actually. Most of the bigger teams, including MIT, had silent backers, as do some high solo limit players. Some of the higher limit blackjack guys buy into each other just the same way poker players do.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Prove it to who?

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Prove it to anyone. If you don't care what anybody thinks, then why have you been jumping through hoops all theses years,
trying to get strangers to believe that you've won?

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I haven't been trying to get anyone to believe anything. I just made statements of facts. It's your choice to believe or not to believe. I don't care one way or the other.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Mickeycrimm of course card counting is based on probability. But you have to see and count and keep track of your own game. And I'm not even going to start with counting two tables. The point is there are other abilities needed to be a good blackjack player besides probability.

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It's called knowledge and skill. But the whole thing is based in probability theory.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

My LSAT score was not make believe. Nor my diploma and I don't need to send anyone a package of my history because it's all online. However I've NEVER had a profitable year gambling.

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No offense, Alan, but my father called people like you "educated idiots." LOL!

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

My LSAT score was not make believe. Nor my diploma and I don't need to send anyone a package of my history because it's all online. However I've NEVER had a profitable year gambling.

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No offense, Alan, but my father called people like you "educated idiots." LOL!

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Book smart, but not life smart or street smart.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

Look, man, I would never offer a bet that I wouldn't take myself. You want to show how great you are, but fear that the next guy is better.

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My exact proposition to Argentino was I could take a $2000 bankroll at 8 AM and gamble it up to a $2500 bankroll by midnight. Are you saying you can do the same thing?

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Sure, why not? Without any angle(s), there is a 2,000/2,500 = 0.8 chance of turning $2,000 in $2,500.

Over a few bets, the HE is negligible. I wouldn't take Shacky's (shaky) advice for two-step progression betting - it's on his Odds site somewhere - and bet one-third of it, and the other two-thirds if lose that in an attempt to make more money than required. I'd bet $500, and then a $1000 if lose that, or try to rebuild by doubling the remaining $500 if lose the first two bets. The 3/4 chance of not losing both bets, plus the chance to recoup and try again.

At regular baccarat, though, I would have to factor in the commission on any banker bets won. And for fun wait till the last hands of shoes to pick a good one: lots of 2's and 3's for the player, and 7's and 8's for the banker. Maybe even the tie-bet if lots of face cards left. Or for one of those flashed or misplayed cards on a previous hand. Could happen. For sure, the blackjack AP-thing would be too risky over the course of just a single day. Or find a lesser HE on a different casino game where available. I would be leery about going to casino X on day Y. The casino and day would have to be picked somewhat at random. Somewhat typical playing conditions.

In any event, I have to figure that if you average only around $500 a normal day, as you used to say, then your chance of making $500 on any given day can't be too much better than 0.8 .

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Onehitblunder, the bet between Argentino and me was to be in Montana on machines that have an overall payback of around 90% with a max bet of $2. Would you bet $10,000 that you could turn $2000 into $2500 between 8 AM and midnight under those conditions?

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

However I've NEVER had a profitable year gambling.

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Who really has? Mass, casino gambling is about the appearance of a chance to win. What the players think they know is pure baloney put or left there by much shrewder souls than them. Billions in research, and decades of empirical findings versus a few flighty and touchy-feely persons on a few ever-dying internet message boards.

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More ignorant blather from onehitblunder. Slot Operations managers learned the hard way by continually getting burned by VP pros. And opportunists like Bob Dancer teaching them what to keep off the casino floors and how to design promotions that AP's can't exploit. They learned it all from AP's.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

However I've NEVER had a profitable year gambling.

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Because you choose to play those -EV games (craps, 8/5 BP, etc.). And there is nothing wrong with that either.

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Yep. That's exactly the reason. No doubt about it.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

My exact proposition to Argentino was I could take a $2000 bankroll at 8 AM and gamble it up to a $2500 bankroll by midnight. Are you saying you can do the same thing?

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Sure, why not? Without any angle(s), there is a 2,000/2,500 = 0.8 chance of turning $2,000 in $2,500.

Over a few bets, the HE is negligible. I wouldn't take Shacky's (shaky) advice for two-step progression betting - it's on his Odds site somewhere - and bet one-third of it, and the other two-thirds if lose that in an attempt to make more money than required. I'd bet $500, and then a $1000 if lose that, or try to rebuild by doubling the remaining $500 if lose the first two bets. The 3/4 chance of not losing both bets, plus the chance to recoup and try again.

At regular baccarat, though, I would have to factor in the commission on any banker bets won. And for fun wait till the last hands of shoes to pick a good one: lots of 2's and 3's for the player, and 7's and 8's for the banker. Maybe even the tie-bet if lots of face cards left. Or for one of those flashed or misplayed cards on a previous hand. Could happen. For sure, the blackjack AP-thing would be too risky over the course of just a single day. Or find a lesser HE on a different casino game where available. I would be leery about going to casino X on day Y. The casino and day would have to be picked somewhat at random. Somewhat typical playing conditions.

In any event, I have to figure that if you average only around $500 a normal day, as you used to say, then your chance of making $500 on any given day can't be too much better than 0.8 .

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Onehitblunder, the bet between Argentino and me was to be in Montana on machines that have an overall payback of around 90% with a max bet of $2. Would you bet $10,000 that you could turn $2000 into $2500 between 8 AM and midnight under those conditions?

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That's fine, Mickey. Carry on. Nobody is going to prove out your stuff, or make a man of you. You'll have to do that for yourself.


P.S. What does it say about how confident you are in what you do every day for 18 hours a day when you have to make it so easy to win $500? What a joke. People don't put the real information on line to keep it away from the AP's.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Book smart, but not life smart or street smart.

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It's called "street smart" for a reason. Lol.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

Has there ever been an AP blackjack player with a rich backer? Surely, if there's considerable interest on capital to be made, bankers would be into it, too.

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Ahh..yeah. It's pretty common, actually. Most of the bigger teams, including MIT, had silent backers, as do some high solo limit players. Some of the higher limit blackjack guys buy into each other just the same way poker players do.

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Ah, I don't think so. They made money on the movie about that team going broke and falling apart. But, maybe that part isn't true, either. For sure, no one is backing you. And, Shacky lost thousands on a team of his own, years ago. You'd have to fugure too, that Grosjean, Jacobson and the other gambling authors would be millionaires by now with backers. But, they aren't. Where ARE THEY now?

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

Sure, why not? Without any angle(s), there is a 2,000/2,500 = 0.8 chance of turning $2,000 in $2,500.

Over a few bets, the HE is negligible. I wouldn't take Shacky's (shaky) advice for two-step progression betting - it's on his Odds site somewhere - and bet one-third of it, and the other two-thirds if lose that in an attempt to make more money than required. I'd bet $500, and then a $1000 if lose that, or try to rebuild by doubling the remaining $500 if lose the first two bets. The 3/4 chance of not losing both bets, plus the chance to recoup and try again.

At regular baccarat, though, I would have to factor in the commission on any banker bets won. And for fun wait till the last hands of shoes to pick a good one: lots of 2's and 3's for the player, and 7's and 8's for the banker. Maybe even the tie-bet if lots of face cards left. Or for one of those flashed or misplayed cards on a previous hand. Could happen. For sure, the blackjack AP-thing would be too risky over the course of just a single day. Or find a lesser HE on a different casino game where available. I would be leery about going to casino X on day Y. The casino and day would have to be picked somewhat at random. Somewhat typical playing conditions.

In any event, I have to figure that if you average only around $500 a normal day, as you used to say, then your chance of making $500 on any given day can't be too much better than 0.8 .

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Onehitblunder, the bet between Argentino and me was to be in Montana on machines that have an overall payback of around 90% with a max bet of $2. Would you bet $10,000 that you could turn $2000 into $2500 between 8 AM and midnight under those conditions?

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That's fine, Mickey. Carry on. Nobody is going to prove out your stuff, or make a man of you. You'll have to do that for yourself.


P.S. What does it say about how confident you are in what you do every day for 18 hours a day when you have to make it so easy to win $500? What a joke. People don't put the real information on line to keep it away from the AP's.

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I think this is what's commonly referred to as "asymmetric warfare." OneHit hasn't given an inkling as to what he does for work, for recreation, where he lives, or who he is (mickey really isn't anonymous). While demonstrating some knowledge of some gambling math, OneHit is also clearly not at all expert regarding other gambling info, such as with comments like the "billions in research" regarding casino games and whether some are beatable in the long run.

It's a very weird situation. A gambling board with anonymous posters who display minimal knowledge make value judgements regarding how other people more expert than themselves spend time or make a living. It's a very odd nose-in-the-air attitude. It's also done from a place of not just the safety of anonymity, but of giving absolutely no personal information.

OneHit, if you're anti-gambling, say so. People can try to discredit you. If you're a recreational, lose-my-ass dude, say so and let people come after you. If you're a failed AP, say so. All you're doing is pontificating from some safe place, and it's not even data-driven pontificating. Why not tell everybody what you did yesterday, so maybe someone can say, "Well, that was a truly pitiful way to spend 24 hours?"

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Originally Posted by redietz

OneHit, if you're anti-gambling, say so. People can try to discredit you. If you're a recreational, lose-my-ass dude, say so and let people come after you. If you're a failed AP, say so. All you're doing is pontificating from some safe place, and it's not even data-driven pontificating. Why not tell everybody what you did yesterday, so maybe someone can say, "Well, that was a truly pitiful way to spend 24 hours?"

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Red, if you want to argue about something specific, then please do so. What I am not is a mind reader. Point out my mistakes, and I will be glad to correct them.


P.S. Maybe you would like to make a bet from the safety of your weird sort of "anonymity" of importance in some hitherto unknown world. I bet that the girlfriend has more balls.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

Sure, why not? Without any angle(s), there is a 2,000/2,500 = 0.8 chance of turning $2,000 in $2,500.

Over a few bets, the HE is negligible. I wouldn't take Shacky's (shaky) advice for two-step progression betting - it's on his Odds site somewhere - and bet one-third of it, and the other two-thirds if lose that in an attempt to make more money than required. I'd bet $500, and then a $1000 if lose that, or try to rebuild by doubling the remaining $500 if lose the first two bets. The 3/4 chance of not losing both bets, plus the chance to recoup and try again.

At regular baccarat, though, I would have to factor in the commission on any banker bets won. And for fun wait till the last hands of shoes to pick a good one: lots of 2's and 3's for the player, and 7's and 8's for the banker. Maybe even the tie-bet if lots of face cards left. Or for one of those flashed or misplayed cards on a previous hand. Could happen. For sure, the blackjack AP-thing would be too risky over the course of just a single day. Or find a lesser HE on a different casino game where available. I would be leery about going to casino X on day Y. The casino and day would have to be picked somewhat at random. Somewhat typical playing conditions.

In any event, I have to figure that if you average only around $500 a normal day, as you used to say, then your chance of making $500 on any given day can't be too much better than 0.8 .

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Onehitblunder, the bet between Argentino and me was to be in Montana on machines that have an overall payback of around 90% with a max bet of $2. Would you bet $10,000 that you could turn $2000 into $2500 between 8 AM and midnight under those conditions?

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That's fine, Mickey. Carry on. Nobody is going to prove out your stuff, or make a man of you. You'll have to do that for yourself.


P.S. What does it say about how confident you are in what you do every day for 18 hours a day when you have to make it so easy to win $500? What a joke. People don't put the real information on line to keep it away from the AP's.

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I put down the 18 hours stipulation for effect. I put this challenge down on Argentino when the conditions in Montana drove my daily win average up to $560 a day. That average took a dip to about $300 a day when certain games were removed but new games just out are driving my daily average back up again.

What was my chance of being successful with a bet like that against Argentino? It was 100% that I would do it. What you and Argentino don't know is I could easily set you up in such a bet and do it in less than an hour. It would more than likely have taken about 8 hours if I didn't want to set the idiot up.

And from what I can see your answer to the problem is to run a martingale. Voodoo gambling at it's best.