Is Sports Betting AP Play?

[redietz]

Sure, why not? Without any angle(s), there is a 2,000/2,500 = 0.8 chance of turning $2,000 in $2,500.

Over a few bets, the HE is negligible. I wouldn't take Shacky's (shaky) advice for two-step progression betting - it's on his Odds site somewhere - and bet one-third of it, and the other two-thirds if lose that in an attempt to make more money than required. I'd bet $500, and then a $1000 if lose that, or try to rebuild by doubling the remaining $500 if lose the first two bets. The 3/4 chance of not losing both bets, plus the chance to recoup and try again.

At regular baccarat, though, I would have to factor in the commission on any banker bets won. And for fun wait till the last hands of shoes to pick a good one: lots of 2's and 3's for the player, and 7's and 8's for the banker. Maybe even the tie-bet if lots of face cards left. Or for one of those flashed or misplayed cards on a previous hand. Could happen. For sure, the blackjack AP-thing would be too risky over the course of just a single day. Or find a lesser HE on a different casino game where available. I would be leery about going to casino X on day Y. The casino and day would have to be picked somewhat at random. Somewhat typical playing conditions.

In any event, I have to figure that if you average only around $500 a normal day, as you used to say, then your chance of making $500 on any given day can't be too much better than 0.8 .

Onehitblunder, the bet between Argentino and me was to be in Montana on machines that have an overall payback of around 90% with a max bet of $2. Would you bet $10,000 that you could turn $2000 into $2500 between 8 AM and midnight under those conditions?

That's fine, Mickey. Carry on. Nobody is going to prove out your stuff, or make a man of you. You'll have to do that for yourself.


P.S. What does it say about how confident you are in what you do every day for 18 hours a day when you have to make it so easy to win $500? What a joke. People don't put the real information on line to keep it away from the AP's.

I think this is what's commonly referred to as "asymmetric warfare." OneHit hasn't given an inkling as to what he does for work, for recreation, where he lives, or who he is (mickey really isn't anonymous). While demonstrating some knowledge of some gambling math, OneHit is also clearly not at all expert regarding other gambling info, such as with comments like the "billions in research" regarding casino games and whether some are beatable in the long run.

It's a very weird situation. A gambling board with anonymous posters who display minimal knowledge make value judgements regarding how other people more expert than themselves spend time or make a living. It's a very odd nose-in-the-air attitude. It's also done from a place of not just the safety of anonymity, but of giving absolutely no personal information.

OneHit, if you're anti-gambling, say so. People can try to discredit you. If you're a recreational, lose-my-ass dude, say so and let people come after you. If you're a failed AP, say so. All you're doing is pontificating from some safe place, and it's not even data-driven pontificating. Why not tell everybody what you did yesterday, so maybe someone can say, "Well, that was a truly pitiful way to spend 24 hours?"