The Biden-Pocalypse

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

As I write this at 6am Friday, July 12, today feels like the end of the Biden saga, meaning re-election campaign to me. It feels like by sundown he will not be running for re-election. Being stubborn, Mr Biden could possibly drag it into the weekend, but today just feels like the day to me. :rolleyes:

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Biden watch 2. :D Last Friday I posted the above, noting that it could drag into the weekend. Well then on Saturday, an assassination attempt on ex-President Trump changed everything, buying Biden more time as he was forced to make some presidential comments and speeches.

Well, now almost a week later, we are back to where we were last Friday. Don't know if it is going to happen Today (thursday) or Tomorrow, or if stubborn old Joe drags us through the weekend, but this is going to happen. It is probably going to take Barack Obama to give him that final kick in the pants, which Obama has been reluctant to do.

The reason this HAS to happen is the polls that came out yesterday which can be seen at RCP today. They called them swing states, but they included several states like Ohio, North Carolina, which aren't really swing states. But Pa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, plus the previous mentioned Ohio, and North Carolina. In every single poll Biden is down 4-7 points. And here is the really bad part for Dems. Most of these states have senate races, with democratic incumbent senators. And polled separately, the democratic senators are winning every single one of these states. That is proof of President Biden underperforming by 10 points.

BUT, the elections do not happen separately. Because they happen together, Biden will drag each and every one of these Senators down with him, along with dozens of house races. THAT is why the Democrats have to remove him. Not because he will lose, but because he takes everyone down with him. Maybe Harris will as well, but we don't know that yet. Just maybe she will be a little more competitive and even if she loses, not drag the whole boat down with her. THAT is what the democrats have to find out.

Oh and the betting Markets are the real indicator that this is going to happen. More so that polls. Polls can be made so say what the polling people want. Betting markets tell where people are putting their money, not their heart.

And full disclosure: I do have a betting interest in Harris becoming the democratic Nominee, which I made several weeks ago. And it has nothing to do with preference. It has to do with what I felt HAD to happen. Biden had to be removed and they had to go to Harris. They can't jump over her for fear of pissing off the blacks AND losing the 100 million dollars the Biden-Harris campaign has on hand. If they pick her, she can have access to that money. Anyone else can't.

Maybe Uncle Joe can convince Hunter to shoot him, too, in the ear, but with a BB gun not an AR-15, and thus gain sympathy for the alleged "assassination attempt."

Normally it would be tough to pull this off, what with Joe having Secret Service protection, but given their recent performance in Butler they'd likely miss seeing (let alone stopping) a cement mixer speeding full bore toward our fearless leader.

Heck, Hunter was his dad's bag man before so why not be his "attempted assassin" next?

Whatever it takes for the Biden clan to retain power...hello "sympathy."

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Maybe Uncle Joe can convince Hunter to shoot him, too, in the ear, but with a BB gun not an AR-15, and thus gain sympathy for the alleged "assassination attempt."

Normally it would be tough to pull this off, what with Joe having Secret Service protection, but given their recent performance in Butler they'd likely miss seeing (let alone stopping) a cement mixer speeding full bore toward our fearless leader.

Heck, Hunter was his dad's bag man before so why not be his "attempted assassin" next?

Whatever it takes for the Biden clan to retain power...hello "sympathy."

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Just an opinion, but I don't think Trump is getting or will get much of a sympathy vote bumps, as say Ronald Reagan did. Everything with Trump is already baked in. 40 some % support him and like him, 40 some percent (slightly more I believe) can't stand him and won't vote for him. And sympathy isn't going to change those numbers.

What has changed those numbers just a few points, and that is all it takes, is just a few independents feeling like one guy just is not mentally capable of doing the job. Once you remove that nuance, I think you go right back to a razor thin race.

Two things, one of which I'm proud. Not so much the other.

1) This was written on the 14th. I got most things right vis-a-vis the assassination attempt. I went out on a limb on a couple of observations before most people did, but I know people who shoot (professionally), so thought I was correct. Most of what I said was verified later. A lot of reporting is about getting things right while writing under deadline.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...of-donald.html

2) I'm a little embarrassed to be this cold-blooded, but as soon as I realized Trump had survived, I plunked down money on him. I had held off because I always thought Michelle Obama might enter the fray. But I got a couple bucks down at Even money one offshore and another couple hundred down at -190 at Northbet. At the time, most places had it off the board. That is cold, as they say, but it'll finance my next Vic and Anthony's excursion, so what the hell.

As Rob likes to remind us, we little people can't be choosers.

You got money down on Trump at Even money after he was shot? Sounds like BS as Trump hasn't been even money for months. But whatever.

And the you put more money at -190. Good for you. Buy stocks at high point. Great strategy. :rolleyes:

My wagers aren't necessarily about winning. I have one on Harris to win and one on Dems to win. As soon as Harris becomes the candidate, that wager becomes a winning wager with hedging opportunities. My second wager will become a winner as soon as the race tightens for whatever reason....and it will. A hundred different things could happen or be said between now and November that would cause the race to tighten and that is all I need.

Buy high. Great strategy. ;)

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

You got money down on Trump at Even money after he was shot? Sounds like BS as Trump hasn't been even money for months. But whatever.

And the you put more money at -190. Good for you. Buy stocks at high point. Great strategy. :rolleyes:

My wagers aren't necessarily about winning. I have one on Harris to win and one on Dems to win. As soon as Harris becomes the candidate, that wager becomes a winning wager with hedging opportunities. My second wager will become a winner as soon as the race tightens for whatever reason....and it will. A hundred different things could happen or be said between now and November that would cause the race to tighten and that is all I need.

Buy high. Great strategy. ;)

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God, you are such a moron. "Sounds like BS?" When have I ever quoted a number here that was wrong in 10,000 posts?

Tell you what. I'll bet you 10K, 20K, whatever, that I got Trump at Even money. Or even 1K and a $6.50 cup of Golden Nugget Starbucks coffee.

Now don't go and die on me or get robbed or have your money stolen in a backroom or something before you make the wager. Todd can hold the funds. Better yet, MDawg can hold the funds. MDawg, you up for this?

Get the money to Todd or MDawg. I'll meet either and provide the dated "Bet Pending" in person. Unless you survive your latest back-rooming, stabbing, Covid, arm-breaking, or death and can do it in person. I'm flexible. And please tell Count Dracula I said hello. I know many undead, but you and he are my faves.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

You got money down on Trump at Even money after he was shot? Sounds like BS as Trump hasn't been even money for months. But whatever.

And the you put more money at -190. Good for you. Buy stocks at high point. Great strategy. :rolleyes:

My wagers aren't necessarily about winning. I have one on Harris to win and one on Dems to win. As soon as Harris becomes the candidate, that wager becomes a winning wager with hedging opportunities. My second wager will become a winner as soon as the race tightens for whatever reason....and it will. A hundred different things could happen or be said between now and November that would cause the race to tighten and that is all I need.

Buy high. Great strategy. ;)

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God, you are such a moron. "Sounds like BS?" LOL. When have I ever quoted a number here that was wrong in 10,000 posts? I will bet you your net worth that I got money on Trump at Even money after the shooting. And here's the kicker for KJ haters. I bet it at a site where KJ claims to have had an account. Of course, KJ claims many things.

Tell you what. I'll bet you 10K, 20K, whatever, that I got Trump at Even money. And we can bet another 10K, 20K, whatever, that it's a site where you claim to have had an account.

Now don't go and die on me or get robbed or have your money stolen in a backroom or something before you make the wager. Todd can hold the funds. Better yet, MDawg can hold the funds. MDawg, you up for this?

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Yeah, the old "I will bet you your net worth", internet forum pissing contest (that has NEVER happened). :rolleyes:

We will just keep track as things unfold and update.

My two wagers are Democrats win the election @ +240 and Harris to win @ +650 (wish I had bet @ +900 but I didn't)

You have Trump to win at even money (or so you say) and another bet at -190.

Easy peasy. We will see how it goes and I will update the day I make any hedging bets.

I intend to win both my wagers (combined with hedging opportunities, whoever wins the election):rolleyes:

I am so goddamn sick of you, kewlJ. You said, "Sounds like BS as Trump hasn't been even money for months." As if you, some anonymous internet maroon who spews bullshit left and right regarding damned near everything, knows what the odds have been with your omniscient scouting.

Instead of coming to the conclusion that maybe the guy who has gambled on offshore sites for more years than you've been alive is correct, you decide that it sounds like BS. This from the guy who fakes his own death and makes shit up every other post.

Put up some fucking money on that BS crack or say, "I was fucking wrong and have too big a mouth for my wallet." Or I swear I will track your ass down, and you will wish you were in the South Point backroom again.

And unlike Rob or MDawg, I will track you down. Bet on it.

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Originally Posted by redietz

I am so goddamn sick of you, kewlJ. You said, "Sounds like BS as Trump hasn't been even money for months." As if you, some anonymous internet maroon who spews bullshit left and right regarding damned near everything, knows what the odds have been with your omniscient scouting.

Instead of coming to the conclusion that maybe the guy who has gambled on offshore sites for more years than you've been alive is correct, you decide that it sounds like BS. This from the guy who fakes his own death and makes shit up every other post.

Put up some fucking money on that BS crack or say, "I was fucking wrong and have too big a mouth for my wallet." Or I swear I will track your ass down, and you will wish you were in the South Point backroom again.

And unlike Rob or MDawg, I will track you down. Bet on it.

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Or I swear I will track your ass down, and you will wish you were in the South Point backroom again. And unlike Rob or MDawg, I will track you down. Bet on it.

The very same physical threat that Moses made and attempted to implement. AND was banned from this site for.

What the fuck is the matter and has happened to you Redietz? :confused:

lul, You know it's bad when even progressive redietz is bashing the shit out of QueerJ.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by redietz

I am so goddamn sick of you, kewlJ. You said, "Sounds like BS as Trump hasn't been even money for months." As if you, some anonymous internet maroon who spews bullshit left and right regarding damned near everything, knows what the odds have been with your omniscient scouting.

Instead of coming to the conclusion that maybe the guy who has gambled on offshore sites for more years than you've been alive is correct, you decide that it sounds like BS. This from the guy who fakes his own death and makes shit up every other post.

Put up some fucking money on that BS crack or say, "I was fucking wrong and have too big a mouth for my wallet." Or I swear I will track your ass down, and you will wish you were in the South Point backroom again.

And unlike Rob or MDawg, I will track you down. Bet on it.

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Or I swear I will track your ass down, and you will wish you were in the South Point backroom again. And unlike Rob or MDawg, I will track you down. Bet on it.

The very same physical threat that Moses made and attempted to implement. AND was banned from this site for.

What the fuck is the matter and has happened to you Redietz? :confused:

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When redietz said for you to post money with druff you should have told him to post money with druff first since the bet is his idea. And since he would have to go first it insures the bet never happens because redietz is to chickenshit to contact druff about anything.

What’s it been? Over a year? Have you heard Ditz on a radio show or podcast yet? Chickenshit.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by redietz

I am so goddamn sick of you, kewlJ. You said, "Sounds like BS as Trump hasn't been even money for months." As if you, some anonymous internet maroon who spews bullshit left and right regarding damned near everything, knows what the odds have been with your omniscient scouting.

Instead of coming to the conclusion that maybe the guy who has gambled on offshore sites for more years than you've been alive is correct, you decide that it sounds like BS. This from the guy who fakes his own death and makes shit up every other post.

Put up some fucking money on that BS crack or say, "I was fucking wrong and have too big a mouth for my wallet." Or I swear I will track your ass down, and you will wish you were in the South Point backroom again.

And unlike Rob or MDawg, I will track you down. Bet on it.

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Or I swear I will track your ass down, and you will wish you were in the South Point backroom again. And unlike Rob or MDawg, I will track you down. Bet on it.

The very same physical threat that Moses made and attempted to implement. AND was banned from this site for.

What the fuck is the matter and has happened to you Redietz? :confused:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I thought about going after him with a gun but came to my senses.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

this is the kind of thing people get shot over

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

People get shot for far less than this

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https://i.imgur.com/FREfUgkh.jpg

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Originally Posted by MDawg

Basically, this hypocrite whatever he accuses others of, you may be assured that he's done himself first, and worse.

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Originally Posted by mcap

People have a problem with you primarily because you’re as big of a self righteous hypocrite as there is in this world.

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Bbbwwwwwaaahhhhh, the r-e-dietz say he gonna hunt down the kewl-j and make him pay, hey hey!!!!

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Originally Posted by redietz

I am so goddamn sick of you, kewlJ...Put up some fucking money on that BS crack or say, "I was fucking wrong and have too big a mouth for my wallet." Or I swear I will track your ass down, and you will wish you were in the South Point backroom again. And unlike Rob or MDawg, I will track you down. Bet on it.

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Here we go,..

And so this Biden thing is done.

I currently have $1200 on Harris to win the presidency, which is 4 different bets made at different times over the last few weeks at odds ranging from +650 to +440. (Average @ +575).

I believe those bets are now almost instantaneous winner because as soon as the new odds come out, I can hedge, guaranteeing a healthy win.

I also have additional money at Democrats to win the presidency @ +140 and +175. Similarly, these wagers weren't about Democrats winning, just the race tightening so I can hedge those as well, guaranteeing a win.

The only bad part is the amount I could wager was limited and money will be tied up for 4 months. The last is no big deal.

Rob's friend, Rachel Maddow seems out of control. She first said this "guarantees" the first black female President and followed that up with "Trump and Vance will absolutely lose".

Cracks me up when people think with their emotions or heart rather than their brain. :rolleyes: First Harris is now going to come under a lot of scrutiny and attacks. Lets see how she handles that. And second I think this resets this race as the very close race it should always have been. Trump got 46% in both 2016 and 2020. I don't see him increasing that any now, with all his baggage. I don't see him winning over any new supporters. I don't know where Harris's support will settle. She wouldn't be my choice like in a primary season. So we will just see how it shakes out.

But anyone like Ms Maddow, thinking this is a slam dunk for Dems now has lost their mind. I see a very close election and @ +140, +175, and very happy with my wagers in a very close election. Although I will probably hedge those bets too at some point, reducing the risk.

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the electoral college system really, really sucks - it needs to be flushed - but it won't be

one person, one vote, most votes wins

so much, much better

right now, because a person lives in Ca. their vote counts much more than does a person's vote who lives in Maine

in America the system somehow got twisted into this farcical thing

so very, very ridiculous and horrible imo

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In my experience nobody outside the gambling world, included experts or "experts" of all kinds, is capable of appreciating the uncertainty of things. Everything is a black-and-white, 100% lock this or that thing is going to happen.

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polling before Biden dropped out shows Harris pretty strong vs. T - see link
she was ahead in 2 polls and tied in another
and the righties beloved Fox News had her only down by one point

an argument could be made that these polls are meaningless
but I don't think so
I think she will appeal to a great many people

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-ap...ng&w=728&h=486

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I currently have $1200 on Harris

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UNKewlJ doesn't have two nickels to rub together, let alone $1200. to bet, on anything.

https://i.imgur.com/Mtb6Qt1m.jpg

And stop lying about how you predicted any sort of timeline accurately. All your ever changing timeline and willingness to lie about your predictions to try to make it seem like you said something other than you did in fact say prove is that...

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Originally Posted by CoachBelly

You're an admitted and proven liar.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Joe Biden will drop out of the race Tomorow or Tuesday at the latest. He is huddled with his family at Camp David currently and I believe they will come to that conclusion, despite the denials of the past day or two.

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was your prediction, made June 30th.

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Compulsive liar is a fair assessment of what he is. If people go back and look at your last few stories they will see a trend in you always changing the story after you get caught lying.

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