My Advantage Video Poker Play

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Originally Posted by singahkillah

About the only thing I can add to this discussion is Advantage Players depend on the ignorance of the public to make a living. Do I take advantage of casino errors? Like a video poker payscale that is so strong it offers the player a 13% advantage. Believe it or not I did find a game like like. It was a joker game with a very oddball payscale. Sure I take advantage of these casino errors. So someone is saying I'm not an AP because I'm just taking advantage of a casino error? Here's the thing. The play is sitting there for all the general public to peruse. The general public would love to play such a game if they knew it was that strong. But the reason I'm playing it and not them is they don't have the skills to figure out it's an advantage. The game just sat there without getting much action from the general public. Then I came along and recognized the game as a possible advantage. Because it is such an oddball game it can't be fully analyzed by any software on the market. I had to calculate the strategy and analyze the game mathematically to determine it was an advantage play. This is something the general public had the opportunity to do. But I'm the only person who has ever seen the game that had the skills to analyze it and determine it was a huge advantage. Thats what AP is all about.

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Can you describe the 13% advantage without divulging too much. Like the machine and the pay scale but not the casino or city?

I don't sell anything online but my son does for his business www.bassstringsonline.com and when there is an error you honor the order. It's what good business people do.

Finding an odd game with a strange, over-the-top pay table is a very rare occurrence, but it can happen. Because of this I consider that a LUCKY find and not an "advantage play" of some kind. Also regnis, I don't believe Mickey will be able to give the details because, if real, he used gut feel and did not plug the numbers into his head and come up with both that 13% figure and the perfect strategy for it. Obviously.

Alan, let's assume this claim of paying $129k in taxes has nothing corrupting it, like any other income. $300,000 in net profit is being a bit stingy; it's gotta be more like $600,000. Beginning to wonder why jbjb clams up with the details, proof, and sense of it all? And no gambler who claims to be one of these AP's would ever use an "honor system" and report every penny made that had no tax form attached to it. Remember, these people claim to "take advantage" of each & every situation they run into, and as we've seen from people like Dancer, that is hardly limited to gambling.

Combined with the laughable RS__s' lack of knowledge about tax filing strategy along with his multiple statements borne of no experience, this site is the victim of mouthy armchair AP's who can't get no satisfaction on the wizard's site no more no how.

Yes, it's a Single Joker Two Pair or Better game. Here's the payscale:

5 Aces....................................1600
Royal Flush...............................800
4 Natural Aces..........................300+ 1% meter
Five of a Kind............................250
Natural Aces Full of Anything......200+ 1% meter
Joker Royal...............................200
Straight Flush.............................50
4 of a Kind.................................25
Full House....................................9
Flush........................,..................5
Straight.......................................4
3 of a Kind...................................1
Two Pair.......................................1

It's been almost 8 years since I found and analyzed this game. The game can't be fully analyzed by the software because of two hands. The 5 Aces paying 1600 for 1 where a regular 5 of a Kind pays 250 for 1. And the Natural Aces Full of Anything hand. There is no software out there where you can isolate those two hands. But Wolf Video Poker was a big help. It did a lot of the work for me. I punched the payscale into the field, eleminating the 5 Aces and Natural Aces Full hands. Then went to work from there.

WVP has a great function called "Tweak the Strategy Chart." Hands like 3 Aces, Two Pair (Aces Up), Pair of Aces, or one lone Ace have a much higher EV in this game than what the regular strategy chart showed. So I did the math to determine the real EV of these hands then tweaked them up the strategy chart to their proper positions. Then I clicked the analyze button again to get the payback.

The next move was to determine the chances of making a Natural Aces Full of Anything hand. This is done by determining all the routes to the hand. It looks something like this:

Dealt Aces Full
Dealt 3 Aces into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Two Pair Aces Up into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Pair of Aces into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Regular Pair with an Ace Kicker into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Regular Pair into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt One Ace into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Draw Five hand into Aces Full on the draw.

There are functions in WVP that will tell you precisely how often you see these dealt hands per the modified strategy chart. So then it was just a matter of calculating the chance of turning those hands into Aces Full. I came up with the frequency of 876 for making a Natural Aces Full Hand. I was also able to use this method to determine the frequency of making the 5 Aces hand (126,00). The software showed me the frequency of Natural 4 Aces (5,300).

I had to make another adjustment for The Pair with the Ace Kicker hand. So the software showed the game at 89%. The Natural Aces Full Hand pays 200 for 1 on a frequency of 876 ( I had to make another adjustment here too because the software already accounted for 9 bets of the hand)

191/876 = 21.8%
89% + 21.8% = 110.8%

The game has 2% worth of meters too so a 112.8% game.

You can see by the payscale that 3 of a Kind pays even money. Most Joker games pay 2 for 1. This is a very top heavy payscale. But the bet is just 50 cents. You might call this a low roller play then. But at 1000 HPH it's worth $64 an hour. I would much rather have a gig making $64 an hour on a $500 an hour wager than a $64 an hour gig running $5000 an hour wager.

PS, Robbie Boy, you are wrong once again.

Where was the casino mistake in this game? It was in the Natural Aces Full Hand. The game can be found on about 2000 machines. But the Natural Aces Full meter starts at $10 (20 for 1) or $15 (30 for 1). The first time I stumbed onto one where the meter started at $100 I knew it had to be a big advantage. This big lightbulb goes off in my head. If they made this mistake on this one machine they may have made it on others. So I went through all two thousand machines looking for the mistake. I found the mistake on two dozen machines. So I started running a route on them just taking so much money out of every machine. I also tracked the meters to see if I had any competition. And when I was on the play where there was more than one machine in a location I always observed whether anyone else was playing the game. The machines have a dozen video poker games on them and a dozen keno games. The players have a big selection. I never seen or suspected I had any competition. It's almost 8 years later and I'm down to 2 machines at one location.

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The U.S. Department of Transportation used to force airlines to honour mistaken fares. But just this spring, they announced plans to revisit the policy. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/britis...tage-1.3207946

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The times are a catching up?

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I have narcissistic tendenceies, Robbie. I'm not afraid to admit
it. I like to show off. But you are a scared little rabbit,
Slobbie. You want to show off but you don't have anything to show
off. Because you are a loser. You were born a loser, you lived your
life as a loser and you will die a loser. https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/...ns/topics/5786

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Note the, "I like to show off," mc adds at the end of a 114.5% machine story.

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You're right about Nevada. Especially right now. I haven't said anything about it, and I will have to shut up about it--I got friends who wouldn't be too pleased--but anyone with a clue can run $8000 to $10,000 a month in freeplay/bounceback in Las Vegas right now.

Why am I not there? There is a woman involved. She doesn't want me to leave Montana. And I don't want to leave Montana/her either. Except maybe for some short trips. https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/...ns/topics/5786

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Okay, mc...

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Alan, let's assume this claim of paying $129k in taxes has nothing corrupting it, like any other income. $300,000 in net profit is being a bit stingy; it's gotta be more like $600,000.

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You're probably right that I was being stingy.

Frankly, I don't know many people who pay $129,000 a year in taxes unless they are multi millionaires or won Megabucks and are collecting a million dollars or more each year without offsetting casino losses.

I wonder if he just misspoke and really had taxable income of $129,000 which would make a whole lotta sense.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I wonder if he just misspoke and really had taxable income of $129,000 which would make a whole lotta sense.

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I had the twinge that he was throwing your 1.29 mil number back at you. Just a coincidence?

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

I had the twinge that he was throwing your 1.29 mil number back at you. Just a coincidence?

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That is an interesting observation. While I had W2Gs for $1.29-million I lost money that year. In fact I lost exactly what I should have lost playing a negative expectation 9/5 DDB game. I have no trouble admitting to my losses. I wonder if any self-described AP can admit to his losses?

years ago I met a self-described AP at Rincon who later lost his entire bankroll playing only "advantage plays" which included slots with jackpots that "must hit by" and also playing abandoned multipliers on Ultimate X machines.

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Originally Posted by singahkillah

Yes, it's a Single Joker Two Pair or Better game. Here's the payscale:

5 Aces....................................1600
Royal Flush...............................800
4 Natural Aces..........................300+ 1% meter
Five of a Kind............................250
Natural Aces Full of Anything......200+ 1% meter
Joker Royal...............................200
Straight Flush.............................50
4 of a Kind.................................25
Full House....................................9
Flush........................,..................5
Straight.......................................4
3 of a Kind...................................1
Two Pair.......................................1

It's been almost 8 years since I found and analyzed this game. The game can't be fully analyzed by the software because of two hands. The 5 Aces paying 1600 for 1 where a regular 5 of a Kind pays 250 for 1. And the Natural Aces Full of Anything hand. There is no software out there where you can isolate those two hands. But Wolf Video Poker was a big help. It did a lot of the work for me. I punched the payscale into the field, eleminating the 5 Aces and Natural Aces Full hands. Then went to work from there.

WVP has a great function called "Tweak the Strategy Chart." Hands like 3 Aces, Two Pair (Aces Up), Pair of Aces, or one lone Ace have a much higher EV in this game than what the regular strategy chart showed. So I did the math to determine the real EV of these hands then tweaked them up the strategy chart to their proper positions. Then I clicked the analyze button again to get the payback.

The next move was to determine the chances of making a Natural Aces Full of Anything hand. This is done by determining all the routes to the hand. It looks something like this:

Dealt Aces Full
Dealt 3 Aces into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Two Pair Aces Up into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Pair of Aces into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Regular Pair with an Ace Kicker into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Regular Pair into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt One Ace into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Draw Five hand into Aces Full on the draw.

There are functions in WVP that will tell you precisely how often you see these dealt hands per the modified strategy chart. So then it was just a matter of calculating the chance of turning those hands into Aces Full. I came up with the frequency of 876 for making a Natural Aces Full Hand. I was also able to use this method to determine the frequency of making the 5 Aces hand (126,00). The software showed me the frequency of Natural 4 Aces (5,300).

I had to make another adjustment for The Pair with the Ace Kicker hand. So the software showed the game at 89%. The Natural Aces Full Hand pays 200 for 1 on a frequency of 876 ( I had to make another adjustment here too because the software already accounted for 9 bets of the hand)

191/876 = 21.8%
89% + 21.8% = 110.8%

The game has 2% worth of meters too so a 112.8% game.

You can see by the payscale that 3 of a Kind pays even money. Most Joker games pay 2 for 1. This is a very top heavy payscale. But the bet is just 50 cents. You might call this a low roller play then. But at 1000 HPH it's worth $64 an hour. I would much rather have a gig making $64 an hour on a $500 an hour wager than a $64 an hour gig running $5000 an hour wager.

PS, Robbie Boy, you are wrong once again.

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I always love it when someone try's to tell me I'm just blowing smoke. Here's a screenshot of this play:

http://www.imgur.com/7S3spcf

Now, OneHit, analyze this game for all of us and tell us all how I don't know what I'm doing. Tell us all it's not a big advantage. Not only that but I invite every elite gambling mathematician on the planet to review this play and tell me I'm wrong. Come one come all.

For you GPS guys. Save your time looking for the coordinates. I always turn the GPS off before I take a picture of a play.

singahkillah the photo does not match the pay table you posted. specifically look at the payout on the royal.

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Originally Posted by singahkillah

I always love it when someone try's to tell me I'm just blowing smoke. Here's a screenshot of this play:

http://www.imgur.com/7S3spcf

Now, OneHit, analyze this game for all of us and tell us all how I don't know what I'm doing. Tell us all it's not a big advantage. Not only that but I invite every elite gambling mathematician on the planet to review this play and tell me I'm wrong. Come one come all.

For you GPS guys. Save your time looking for the coordinates. I always turn the GPS off before I take a picture of a play.

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Alan, I put the money odds up on the payscale in the post. In the screen shot, take a look down at the bottom and you will see that it's 25 cent denom and I was betting two coins. In the screen shot the royal pays 1600 coins, but that is on a two coin bet. So the royal pays 800 for 1. The rest of the payscale works out the same way.

Finding that game is impressive.

Alan, there is one thing that can't be seen in the screenshot. A regular full house pays 9 for 1. That's because I took the picture when I had an Aces Full of Anything on the screen. The regular full house would show paying 18 coins since I'm making a two coin bet. Again, this little uneducated hillbilly would invite every elite gambling mathematican from here to Timbuktu to review my play and tell all the people in the gambling forums whether I'm blowing smoke or not.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Finding that game is impressive.

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Thanks, redietz.

Alan, read this: http://beyondnumbers.lvablog.com/201...-at-the-table/


Ultimately, any and all information obtained by anyone regarding HC information can be obtained by anyone. Everyone else had the option to sit in seat #1 or seat #6.

Meanwhile, the game is setup in a way so that not everyone gets the same information. If I have a pair of Kings and don't show others at the table my cards (since you're not supposed to show your cards to others)....I am now using information that no one else at the table can get: 2 kings are removed from the remaining cards.

If I'm playing a pitch BJ game and get dealt 4,5 and 2,A (I'm playing 2 hands) and someone else has T,T, dealer is showing an Ace........the guy with two tens doesn't have the same information I have, and he has information I don't have.

NGC has declared hole-carding to be legal and is not cheating. I *believe* the first (major?) case of this was James Grosjean vs Caesars Entertainment (Caesars Palace), where he got arrested and back-roomed because a dealer was flashing (all 3?) hole cards in TCP. Caesars claimed he was marking the cards, even after they reviewed the cards and figured out there were no markings on the cards whatsoever! Anyway, Grosjean won the case against CET.


Once again, Alan, you show your true inexperience regarding gambling when you say things like:

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Originally Posted by Alan

Frankly I wonder if intentionally looking at that flashed hole card might be considered cheating by the NGC?

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http://apheat.net/2013/11/11/hole-carding-101/

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Originally Posted by RS__

Once again, Alan, you show your true inexperience regarding gambling when you say things like:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Frankly I wonder if intentionally looking at that flashed hole card might be considered cheating by the NGC?

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Inexperience? Perhaps since I never cheated, and I have never practiced hole carding.

A more important point: knowing what questions to ask is more important than thinking you have all the answers.

jbjb: care to comment again about paying $129,000 in taxes in one year? And just how much of it came from Mississippi Stud? Or any table game? Or did you win Megabucks or a World Series Bracelet?

For a guy who tells us about how he scours casino floors looking for abandoned multipliers on Ultimate X machines it just doesn't quite fit that you would have TAXES DUE of $129,000.

RS___ are you filing a Schedule C or still just leave it up to your accountant?

I only wish our "hole carding APs" would present to us their findings on the number of times a hole card is exposed and what was actually won when a hole card was exposed? Just like when you have an abandoned multiplier on Ultimate X video poker you might not have a winning hand -- when you have an exposed hole card it might not help you win anything either.

Quoting other Internet articles about theory still doesn't mean anyone actually benefited from such a play. Perhaps this is why so many card counters in blackjack go bust.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Inexperience? Perhaps since I never cheated, and I have never practiced hole carding.

A more important point: knowing what questions to ask is more important than thinking you have all the answers.

RS___ are you filing a Schedule C or still just leave it up to your accountant?

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Stop insinuating that hole carding is cheating. It is not.

RE: "a more important point" -- you're right, knowing which questions to ask is important. But you act like a gambling know-it-all with a bunch of experience and wisdom. At the beginning of this thread you didn't even know what hole carding was. Once you were told what it was, you retorted saying the edge can't be that high. After learning you can get a huge edge, you make something up like "But hole-carding doesn't help you hit royals!" You go on and on and on about how "none of this stuff is possible", while everything is right beneath your nose. However, it doesn't seem like you know which questions are good to ask. You should quit asking such stupid questions.

Not sure what my accounting has to do with this. Like I said a few times, I'm not sure, but I suspect Schedule C.

I'll just say this. I don't do anything that is illegal and that's all that matters.

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Originally Posted by RS__

Stop insinuating that hole carding is cheating. It is not.

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Of course it is not cheating. Be sure you tell the pit boss every time you do it.

Card counting isn't cheating either. Be sure you tell the pit boss every time you do it.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

I'll just say this. I don't do anything that is illegal and that's all that matters.

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Lying is not illegal, so you are right.

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Originally Posted by singahkillah

Alan, there is one thing that can't be seen in the screenshot. A regular full house pays 9 for 1. That's because I took the picture when I had an Aces Full of Anything on the screen. The regular full house would show paying 18 coins since I'm making a two coin bet. Again, this little uneducated hillbilly would invite every elite gambling mathematican from here to Timbuktu to review my play and tell all the people in the gambling forums whether I'm blowing smoke or not.

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Must be why the mathematicians on WoV threw you out :).

Funny, but I remember reading where Shack analyzed this game some years back and strangely, there was an issue with the royal too. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Mickey's taking credit and actually copied it from him. After all, who would care this far into the future? Psst....I certainly don't.

[QUOTE=Rob.Singer;31962]Must be why the mayal too. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Mickey's taking credit and actually copied it from him. After all, who would care this far into the future? Psst....I certainly don't.[/QUOoud TE]

I love your ability, Rob to deflect. It's a great quality you have. I don't copy anyone from anybody. I'm my own asshole man. I don't need a punk like you. I would rather live my own life as I choose to live it than put up with a little bitch like you. This is your one time warning. The first time I see you I'm gonna put a bullet in your head.

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Originally Posted by singahkillah

The first time I see you I'm gonna put a bullet in your head.

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Do I have to notify the police about this??

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Do I have to notify the police about this??

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Pretty sure singahkillah just joshin' around. We all friends here. Plus, I think Rob is plenty qualified to take care of himself -- remember the thread about having credit lines and Rob (apparently?) riding a motorcycle some far distance with lots of money. Rob always alert & on his tippy toes.

I immediately called the Los Angeles Police Department. singahkillah has been permanently banned per the advice of the LAPD. I read them the post and they said it constitutes a criminal threat. Their advice also is for Rob Singer to go to his local police department and file a report.

singahkillah might have been joking -- but this is nothing to joke about. We can criticize and insult relatively freely here (unlike the Wizard's site which has tough rules) -- but this went too far.

I am also, per the LAPD sending a private message to Rob urging him to file a police report. As the LAPD said to me, 'this covers everyone's tail." That means ass.

The difference between all of the other insults that are commonly written here and what happened with singahkillah is that what he wrote is considered a criminal threat.

Be careful folks.

Edited to add: I am not removing the alleged criminal threat because it may be evidence.

The problem with what singuhkillah wrote, aside from the criminal threat aspect, is that he wrote it knowing it drew other people (namely Alan and Dan) into untenable positions if they did nothing since singuh and Rob evidently know each other's real names and such.

I've always worried about the folks who actually follow Rob's instructions because occasionally that big semi-Martingale loss bites someone in the ass, and that person may be motivated to blame Rob, since Rob endorses that kind of gambling. It's possible that is what happened here with singuh or one of his friends.

Redietz interesting comment. Money and jobs make people violent. I've seen players attack dealers at a craps table. We've all seen news reports about workplace shootings after workers are fired. And in the case of mass shootings there always were early signs of trouble that were ignored. I won't ignore physical threats here.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

And in the case of mass shootings there always were early signs of trouble that were ignored.

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Like his moniker "singahkillah"

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

...singahkillah has been permanently banned per the advice of the LAPD...

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I'm surprised you didn't just knowing it was Mickey.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Lying is not illegal, so you are right.

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That's the pot calling the kettle black. Just like Alan, you have no clue what's going on in casinos. It's that tunnel vision you have toward that 96% vp game.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

I'm surprised you didn't just knowing it was Mickey.

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I checked IP addresses and never found a match. I couldn't prove it was Mickey who was previously banned.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

That's the pot calling the kettle black. Just like Alan, you have no clue what's going on in casinos. It's that tunnel vision you have toward that 96% vp game.

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I don't know everything about what's going on in casinos but I do know some things so well that some newspapers and radio programs quote me about craps. The rest? If I'm not an expert I know what questions to ask.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I don't know everything about what's going on in casinos but I do know some things so well that some newspapers and radio programs quote me about craps. The rest? If I'm not an expert I know what questions to ask.

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I'll at least give you credit that you wish to be informed about it if you ask. Again, ten years ago, I though just like you. As far as I knew, card counting was the only way to beat the casino. I've learned that you have to keep an open mind except with betting systems.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

I'll at least give you credit that you wish to be informed about it if you ask. Again, ten years ago, I though just like you. As far as I knew, card counting was the only way to beat the casino. I've learned that you have to keep an open mind except with betting systems.

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That's fine but you still haven't address the red flags in what you claim:

1. Winning so much money from big payoffs at Mississippi Stud and the frequency of those big payoffs?

2. Dealer shuffles at Mississippi Stud? What casino does this?

3. How many times do you get to see the hole cards??????? I have a hard time understanding that this is regularly done unless the dealer is cheating to benefit the players.

4. Lack of automatic shufflers?

You haven't addressed even one of these. Of course you won't because that is the MO of APs.

jbjb
Don't mean to pile on here, but i think Alan has asked many legitimate questions. Questions that he and probably many others here have been waiting for honest answers to.
You say that one should have an open mind. I believe i have a very open mind when it comes to gaming and I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt on what you claim. But, you could go a long way towards more credibility if you just answered some of these questions.

Alan, you keep asking questions and when you are given the answer....well, you refute it saying "that's not possible" or "that's not how it works" or "that's just third-party (friends) information". I've answered numerous of your questions but you seem to dodge the answers and don't give credit when you get an answer. You frequently quote one or two sentences and say something childish like, "When AP's are losing an argument, they go back to flipping coins." [not verbatim]

1. Doesn't matter. You have a 50%+ edge (up to close to 300% if you see all 3 cards). The return/advantage isn't all in the big payoffs (RF, SF, quads), but also comes from lower payoffs AND throwing away your hand when it's at a real big disadvantage. Imagine playing Video Poker and if you're dealt a poor hand you can just surrender and get back half your money.

2. I'm not aware of any casino that does this. No idea why this would even matter, unless you can play a "cut-game" (where you cut a certain card to a certain positioned big player....but that's usually just done in BJ).

3. Sometimes very rarely, only 25% of the time. Games do exist where you can see the HC 90% of the time or higher. But I think even 50% is considered "playable". Of course, you're going to say "that's not possible" and you can believe whatever you want. But when I've been sitting at a game, seeing the card every round, I would not have cared what you or others believe.

4. Huh? This seems like the same question as #2. I think you're going down the wrong path thinking HC games come from dealers shuffling...I'm not sure why. Try reading the AP-heat link(s) there are posted and that should clear a lot of your confusion.

RS___ you are another double talker.

1. Seeing a hole card does not mean the cards are in your hand to deliver the big wins. To put it simply you might see an ACE as the hold card but if your two cards are 8s, knowing that on the flop an ACE is coming does you ZERO good. The only time knowing the hole card helps you is if the hole card will complete your hand. And to put that simply, you are holding 8s and you see the hole card is another 8. Stop your double talk.

2. If you're not aware of any casino that does this, and I am not aware of any casino that does this then the burden is on jbjb to tell us what casino has a dealer shuffling. I know how dealers remove cards from an automatic shuffler and it is far more difficult to see the hole cards coming off an automatic shuffler -- unless the dealer is in on the cheat.

3. You wrote: "Sometimes very rarely, only 25% of the time. Games do exist where you can see the HC 90% of the time or higher." All I can say is -- Really?

4. Yes, this question is like question #2. Tell me the casino using a hand shuffle and deal and not an automatic shuffler for a game licensed by ShuffleMaster. I can't wait to tell ShuffleMaster.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

I'll at least give you credit that you wish to be informed about it if you ask. Again, ten years ago, I though just like you. As far as I knew, card counting was the only way to beat the casino. I've learned that you have to keep an open mind except with betting systems.

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You're all smoke and mirrors just like RS__, only his mirrors have a few more cracks in them than yours. You two bring all the assets of WoV members which includes insufficient knowledge of casinos to be talking smack, unsupportable claims, identity cowardice, and easily ruffled feathers whenever your gig gets exposed.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

...2. If you're not aware of any casino that does this, and I am not aware of any casino that does this then the burden is on jbjb to tell us what casino has a dealer shuffling. I know how dealers remove cards from an automatic shuffler and it is far more difficult to see the hole cards coming off an automatic shuffler -- unless the dealer is in on the cheat.

3. You wrote: "Sometimes very rarely, only 25% of the time. Games do exist where you can see the HC 90% of the time or higher." All I can say is -- Really?

4. Yes, this question is like question #2. Tell me the casino using a hand shuffle and deal and not an automatic shuffler for a game licensed by ShuffleMaster. I can't wait to tell ShuffleMaster.

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2. Yes it's difficult or impossible if the dealer pulls them out properly. That's why we scout and keep notes of the superstars.
3. 25% of the time is a waste of time. We'll pass. And yes, there are 100% games out there. No I won't tell you where.
4. Again, no I won't tell you where.

5. We've got 5 hours in on a stud game today and we're down. So yes, we do incur losses.

Alan, he won't tell you where because he just doesn't know. He just doesn't know. It's what phonies do.

One of the things I learned about the law is that when a witness gives any testimony which is false you must discount all the testimony of the witness.

Here jbjb has made some outrageous claims and statements and has failed to back any of them up.

Just saying.

Believe what you want. If you think I'm stupid enough to reveal our locations and have you or someone ruin them for us, you've got another thing coming. I'll leave it at that. And again, the only phony in the gambling world is Singer himself and EVERYBODY knows it!!

Im sorry jbjb. But a casino using a human to shuffle the cards, and not a card shuffler machine is not a secret. If you can't reveal the name of that casino at least I can't believe a word you say.

Frankly, I had a hard time with your claim that you paid $129,000 in taxes.
then you made some outlandish claims about big wins at Mississippi Stud.
then the claim about seeing all those hole cards while you held the hands that would benefit.

It's just too much for my skeptical, news reporter who put con artists in jail, mind to believe.

Actually, I have seen the evidence of Rob's in print in Gaming Today. I read his column for years. I have seen no proof of yours.

jbjb: The thread is over. No point in trying to educate any of these guys, especially when they refuse to listen and read. If anything, posting about this (and similar topics re: AP) is just hurting you and other players out there playing these games.

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Originally Posted by RS__

jbjb: The thread is over. No point in trying to educate any of these guys, especially when they refuse to listen and read. If anything, posting about this (and similar topics re: AP) is just hurting you and other players out there playing these games.

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Translation: "jbjb, before we expose ourselves further as armchair gamblers and dig our holes even deeper, I suggest we cut our losses on these particular set of lies".

Sage advice :)

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Originally Posted by RS__

jbjb: The thread is over. No point in trying to educate any of these guys, especially when they refuse to listen and read. If anything, posting about this (and similar topics re: AP) is just hurting you and other players out there playing these games.

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Unfortunately neither one of you have given us any information that could make us believe that what you describe actually happens.

I wonder why you APers don't also believe in dice control? You have about as much proof of what you can do as the dice controllers have who teach those expensive courses.

What do they stand to gain for disclosing their advantage? Obviously $100 table limits can only be offered at the higher end casinos. I've seen it at Total Rewards properties so Caesars Palace is a good place to start.

I've played enough Mississippi Stud to understand that even with TWO PAIRS at full max bet can replenish 10 losses. If I knew and was capable, I'd take what the 5th Street card is any day. If you have a unsuited 2 and 8, conventional wisdom says to fold since you have no possibilities of a straight or flush and a non paying pair, if you have knowledge that the 5th street is an 8, you can risk free go for two pairs, 3 of a kind, full house, or even quads. I seen people know away 7/3 ugly hand and miss out on full houses and two pairs many times.

I'll believe in dice control if there are people that can win the fire bet "at will".

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Originally Posted by alpax

What do they stand to gain for disclosing their advantage? Obviously $100 table limits can only be offered at the higher end casinos.

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Unfortunately, everybody can claim to have an advantage on the Internet. And if we keep reading about claims without proof the fiction writers will take over. Sorry, but I don't want this to be a site for fiction. If you can't give us details, don't try to tease us with your stories about your big wins.

At least when it comes to video poker we can see the pictures of the jackpots.

By the way, Jason has a picture of a his royal flush at Mississippi Stud. I have photos of my big fire bet jackpot. Rob Singer has photos of his $50-thou wins.

Betting $100 on Mississippi Stud is not uncommon. The card casinos here in LA that offer the game, including Commerce, allow $100 antes plus 3X antes for each card turn.

I am glad you mentioned getting two pair at Mississippi Stud. You make it sound like two pair is easy to hit. Frankly getting one paying pair of Jacks or Better is damn hard.

I know nothing about Mississippi Stud or the discussion, but I have a question or two.

Assuming RS and jbjb do what they say they do, what is their motivation for reporting this on forums? I just do not see the point. If I were in their shoes and were winning doing these things, I would keep my mouth very, very shut. Why report? Why brag? Why always reference a "we" instead of a "me,", which would tip off casinos even more? Why go into detail?

What is the benefit of reporting? Is being perceived as anonymous expert on a forum worth the risk? What if digital PIs forensically identify these guys via IP addresses? Then their gigs becomes vulnerable both to copycats and the casinos. What is the benefit of spelling out what you are doing?

Who knows? The Zodiac killer sent letters. If I were in his shoes, I'd just kill people and be done with it. But that's me.

The more I consider this, the less sense it makes. Alan has ties to casinos. Technically, casinos could interpret the hole carding as purposeful cheating. That brings the entire discussion here into the law enforcement realm. That means computer forensics could be applied to their IP addresses here. That puts their gigs at true risk. Anyone really winning by doing this, and then reporting it, is either stupid or driven by weird anonymous vanity. I just don't see professional gamblers as either.

One point that Alan was making is how does hole carding result in you getting the high paying hands (quads, royal, etc.) So even if we stipulate that you have a venue in which you can use hole carding, that may benefit you on a hand, but it doesn't cause you to get the big hands. And that begs the question of the claim to have paid taxes of $129,000.

Is the hand to hand grind, even with the alleged hole card advantage, sufficient to cause a taxable income of maybe $700,000, unless there were big hands over which even hole carding has no effect??

Otherwise, I'm with Red on this.

All this AP stuff requires a big bankroll or a lot of time betting a small one over and over at which point you'll still likely lose back at least the years of small gains to the casino's monster bankroll in the inevitable bad streak.

AP's think that acts and disguises are the ticket to playing around with jail sentences and a lifestyle of crime and drugs. But, if one AP sits down to play when another gets up, where's the disguise? The cards are the cards. Even the dealers notice oddball plays w/i minutes as they focus on the myriad of stuff required of them.

Hell, the casino I used to play at most always openly boasted that they have NEVER banned/barred a player for winning at card counting. No need to. Where are all of these guys making money at the casinos? Especially, when they could earn ten times the money selling their big secrets to the casinos. Nobody knows. Ask a pit boss where you play, and I bet you'll get the same response. No wonder that the "Wizards" of the world hold out their experiences of "getting kicked to curb" in business deals, and being beat up and called "fags" throughout childhood. Sometimes, little guys just are losers-cum-bullies. A freak show. Just don't try to prove/verify anything out in the real world at their "online homes".

If you have the big money to make money, there are much better (mainstream, they call it that for a reason,) returns already while you sit with captain's hat, on your sail boat. And if you're an AP/world's dumbest crook, well, the casinos/cops have already created a pretty good delusion-of-grandeur atmosphere for you guys to spill your guts in public. The only problem with encouraging such "nuttishness" is that ALL the little AP's fill their hopeless lives with "letters to Santa"

Don't kid yourself, somewhere in a basement near you a bunch of old single white guys - call them "Pinky and the Brain" - are working feverishly to perfect their dice throw, and a way to disguise it's winning everytime.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Unfortunately, everybody can claim to have an advantage on the Internet. And if we keep reading about claims without proof the fiction writers will take over. Sorry, but I don't want this to be a site for fiction.

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http://i568.photobucket.com/albums/s...&1442606086559

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Funny, but I remember reading where Shack analyzed this game some years back and strangely, there was an issue with the royal too. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Mickey's taking credit and actually copied it from him. After all, who would care this far into the future? Psst....I certainly don't.

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This is total bullshit. Argentino is a quack selling snake oil. Shack never ever seen the game until I introduced it to WoV'ers. See if you can find it in his list of video poker games on Wizard of Odds. You won't find it. I was the only person in the world that exploited this game.

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Originally Posted by slobdinger

This is total bullshit. Argentino is a quack selling snake oil. Shack never ever seen the game until I introduced it to WoV'ers. See if you can find it in his list of video poker games on Wizard of Odds. You won't find it. I was the only person in the world that exploited this game.

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This is total child's play.

You guys ought to run for office. Or, at least get a room (with a fly on the wall).

Mickey is back yet again. What a lonely life a nickel keno player has...... But--I wonder if Shack also has a keno strategy that Mickey could dig up and re-post it?

To all concerned: do me a favor, stop. We all know you both have a problem with each other but your constant back and forth does nothing to inform or help any of us with useful information.

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Originally Posted by redietz

I know nothing about Mississippi Stud or the discussion, but I have a question or two.

Assuming RS and jbjb do what they say they do, what is their motivation for reporting this on forums? I just do not see the point. If I were in their shoes and were winning doing these things, I would keep my mouth very, very shut. Why report? Why brag? Why always reference a "we" instead of a "me,", which would tip off casinos even more? Why go into detail?

What is the benefit of reporting? Is being perceived as anonymous expert on a forum worth the risk? What if digital PIs forensically identify these guys via IP addresses? Then their gigs becomes vulnerable both to copycats and the casinos. What is the benefit of spelling out what you are doing?

Who knows? The Zodiac killer sent letters. If I were in his shoes, I'd just kill people and be done with it. But that's me.

The more I consider this, the less sense it makes. Alan has ties to casinos. Technically, casinos could interpret the hole carding as purposeful cheating. That brings the entire discussion here into the law enforcement realm. That means computer forensics could be applied to their IP addresses here. That puts their gigs at true risk. Anyone really winning by doing this, and then reporting it, is either stupid or driven by weird anonymous vanity. I just don't see professional gamblers as either.

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I'm guessing that the two of them have interest to bring somebody down who claims to have significant winnings from the casinos by exposing a more realistic way of winning (without getting into the nitty gritty) rather than a win-loss stop limit.

All of them have lots of money so that is all that matters.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Unfortunately, everybody can claim to have an advantage on the Internet. And if we keep reading about claims without proof the fiction writers will take over. Sorry, but I don't want this to be a site for fiction. If you can't give us details, don't try to tease us with your stories about your big wins.

At least when it comes to video poker we can see the pictures of the jackpots.

By the way, Jason has a picture of a his royal flush at Mississippi Stud. I have photos of my big fire bet jackpot. Rob Singer has photos of his $50-thou wins.

Betting $100 on Mississippi Stud is not uncommon. The card casinos here in LA that offer the game, including Commerce, allow $100 antes plus 3X antes for each card turn.

I am glad you mentioned getting two pair at Mississippi Stud. You make it sound like two pair is easy to hit. Frankly getting one paying pair of Jacks or Better is damn hard.

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Yes I also agree or else you will be a target of false advertising which will be bad.

I do not think those guys will show the pictures of their chip stack since it exposes the casino they are playing at. Table game AP have to play with many different identities and disguises.

I do understand the benefit of being able to see the card, but what really does not make sense to me is that they want to avoid tables where the game is dealt by hand and go after places where card shufflers are improperly set up and see if the dealer will raise the cards high enough when distributing the cards to the players. I know shufflemaster went with the iDEAL shufflers in Morongo and Pechanga, but yes it should be against their policy to deal by hand. Yet disclosing one location where it is dealt by hand cannot be disclosed.